SPC has upgraded a narrow area from about I-35 and points east to a Slight Risk of severe storms that would cover early Wednesday morning. Fast moving showers and storms will develop from SW to NE. However, most storm maturity may occur E of OKC.

Also worth noting SPC has added a 15% probability of severe weather across a large swath of OK for Sunday evening.

HRRR showing storms moving across central OK around 2-3 am. Dewpoints will be in the low 60's overnight so it will feel more humid
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023022119/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

Slight severe weather risk closer to 6-7 am across eastern OK
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023022119/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_18.png

Now that that weak event is over let's start focusing on Sunday please. I know it's a little early but if you live in the western half of the state you need to clean out your storm shelter. Sunday is looking really good for storms really good. But it's early but please pay attention

Nice quick drink for most of the state this morning.

SPC has increased probabilities for Sunday to 30% across W and NW OK. Maintaining the original 15% extending into C OK. This would be due to dryline supercells becoming more clustered and/or linear as they move east.

Glad to see western OK at least with the possibility of some rain/storms next week, they haven't seen the recent rains like the rest of the state. I mean look at this..

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png?cache_bust=167707 5084502

Today, SPC expanding the 30% severe probabilities to include all of W and C OK for Sunday evening. Noting supercell development out west with a transition to squall line hosting QLCS tornado risk.

I am a big proponent of one-storm-at-a-time forecasting, but it is worth a fun mention that during this severe weather forecast, models are suggesting a winter storm across the same area heading into next weekend.

Today, SPC expanding the 30% severe probabilities to include all of W and C OK for Sunday evening. Noting supercell development out west with a transition to squall line hosting QLCS tornado risk.

I am a big proponent of one-storm-at-a-time forecasting, but it is worth a fun mention that during this severe weather forecast, models are suggesting a winter storm across the same area heading into next weekend.

For many reason I trust the severe weather forecast much more than the winter storm forecast. The cold front will probably win out Sunday though they always seem to do this time of the year.

It's that time of year when big storm systems come across the Plains often with severe weather on the warm side and snow on the backside. Oklahoma is usually too far south for the snow but sometimes can happen if there is enough cold air. These are the types of storms that bring bigtime snows to the Front Range of CO. March is the snowiest month in Denver, followed by April..

Freezing Drizzle possible tomorrow morning could get interesting. As far as Sunday goes it's not too often that 3 days out the GFS and Euro agree and right now they kind of do. QLCS tornadoes possible if the front comes in fast. If not could be some really big storms. 5pm Thursday update. There are some computer models that if the verify this could be a high risk event?

^ The freezing drizzle potential tomorrow is interesting given what happened a couple of weeks ago. I thought they had forecasted a high in the mid 40's tomorrow but now they are backing off that and it looks to be a high of around freezing .

i don't know if this is the right place for this so please remove if it's not. but i have a plum tree that started to flower 3 days ago and today the tree is fully white. i am guessing this was due to the warmer temps lately, the tree is about 8-9 years old and gives us buckets of plums every season. will the upcoming cold front kill the tree/can i do anything to mitigate this?

Only 39 for the high in OKC today. This cold air might play a roll in Sunday's weather. Nam model isn't showing much in the way of storms. There is a lot of bust potential right now for Sunday. Cap? Cold air sticks around? Moisture return doesn't make it? But a few computer models are going crazy so of course everyone will go with that. Euro GFS are very aggressive the Nam is meh nothing

The cold air is much more stubborn than the models anticipated. This happens pretty often.

OK dodged the bullet with this Arctic front. Right on the borderline between some extremely cold temps to the north. Denver has been below zero the past two nights with highs in the single digits.

This pool of cold air is very strong. Temperature rebound for Sunday is looking like a tall order right now. I would say the severe threat is highest out west with a diminishing threat heading toward C OK. This could change Saturday afternoon and evening if the S winds really cut into the area heading into Sunday. Right now it looks like OKC high on Sunday may barely crack mid 60s.

Friday evening EURO. You geta tornado and you get a tornado everyone in Western Oklahoma gets a tornado. GFS. You might get out of the 50s :)

If this cold air continues as it appears it will, it's going to be difficult (not impossible) to get enough return heat to raise the CAPEs enough for significant storm potential. I think several other forecasters are hedging now.

Based on how much the models have underestimated the strength of the arctic airmass over the last three days, I would be stunned if said airmass recovers enough to allow for discrete supercells to initiate ahead of the front on Sunday. That being said, the system is still dynamic enough that I do still favor some sort of QLCS event for much of the state on Sunday Evening as the front moves through, with damaging winds being the main threat.

Moderate Risk for Western Oklahoma. Mostly a big wind event with this but If and big if a storm can form before it all lines out a strong tornado is possible. SPC even mentioned so.

Get ready for 80-100 MPH winds western half of Oklahoma

Moderate risk pretty much anything west of i-35. If you have anything outside that you don't want to blow away you best bring it in this morning. Expect a few Tornado warnings too but you won't notice the difference between the QLCS and the wind to be honest.

Get ready for 80-100 MPH winds western half of Oklahoma

This evening’s projected radar looks like a derecho to my untrained eye.

All of the metro is now included in the moderate risk area.

Storm prediction center 10:30 update using some strong language. .SUMMARY...
A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded
swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on
parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are
anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong
(EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.

This is shaping up to be an extremely high-impact event all across the Metro sometime between 9:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. this evening.

Fast moving line of storms will be the forecast heading into dark. Luckily the storms are expected to lose some steam entering C OK as the air is not extremely unstable. However, if we get some clearing and solar heating this afternoon, that could change.

Any cells along the line staying isolated will have tornado potential.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023022615/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

The temps will be the difference between just a little bit of a noisy night to a multi billion dollar damaging wind event.

Looks like the first half of February is going to be in a very active pattern. Bring it on!!

Hopefully this is a good sign for an active spring.

Practically here. Despite the temperature fluctuations, my allergies are starting to fire up.

Regardless of temperatures, I’m favoring a more robust solution given the crazy dynamics at play. The only thing the slow airmass recovery is really preventing is the potential for discrete supercells ahead of the front. Storms are going to form and go linear almost immediately, but you would have to think the screaming winds just above the surface are going to outweigh the small amount of convective inhibition. The MDT Risk for damaging winds is more than justified, IMO.

From which direction should we expect the heaviest winds?

From the SW

2PM update Tornado risk has been moved closer to the OKC metro area. I-40 to the North Hwy 81 to the East Red River to the South. Could go as far north of Hwy 51 and as far east of I-35

Regardless of temperatures, I’m favoring a more robust solution given the crazy dynamics at play. The only thing the slow airmass recovery is really preventing is the potential for discrete supercells ahead of the front. Storms are going to form and go linear almost immediately, but you would have to think the screaming winds just above the surface are going to outweigh the small amount of convective inhibition. The MDT Risk for damaging winds is more than justified, IMO.

So far, I'm not much worried about it, due to the cloudy weather, temps not yet in the 60s but almost at 59 and barometer still closer to 30.00 than 29.00. However, if the same strong atmospheric conditions set up later this spring, along with it being sunny and in the 80s, then I'm not going to be worried, I'm going to be scared!

For now, given the unusual conditions, I wouldn't want to argue against the need to monitor the situation as it further develops.

Here it comes, wind is picking up.

Sun just came out in western okc. Will be curious if there’s enough time left in the day to warm it up a bit.

I’m still not all that impressed with dewpoint temps. Would feel more confident in a high end event if they were more in the 60’s.

NWS Norman with about as strong of a wording in their latest AFD as I’ve ever seen.

Normally I would be with you all in terms of not enough moisture not warm enough but the jet stream upper level winds with this system are off the charts. Storms already forming in Texas Panhandle with dewpoints around 50. 4:30 Western Oklahoma has Dewpoints in the Mid 50s. 57 Lawton area. That's more than enough on a day like today with so much shear in the atmosphere.

I haven’t been paying super close attention to the timing of this system on the models, but from the forecasts I saw earlier in the day, it seems like this system is a little behind schedule? Feel like the storms fired up much further west than was originally forecast. Or I could just be mistaken?

March is coming soon so I am very excited for Spring, warm weather, flowers blooming, and birds chirping but the bad thing about Spring is my severe allergies but I will take it over the cold weather any day!

I haven’t been paying super close attention to the timing of this system on the models, but from the forecasts I saw earlier in the day, it seems like this system is a little behind schedule? Feel like the storms fired up much further west than was originally forecast. Or I could just be mistaken?

Maybe a country west in Texas. Now looking at 10-11 for the metro. Dodge City Kansas just had a Tornado at 5:30 with temp 68 dewpoint only 48.

6:15 Squall Line is forming in Texas Panhandle. Wind gusts behind the line has been 50-60 mph already. If you have anything outside BRING IT IN.

West Texas Mesonet station in Memphis, TX measured a *114* MPH wind gust at 6:37 PM. #txwx WOW WOW WOW

Wow, how far east will the line go before it starts losing a little bit of its punch?

I see magnum OK is going to get hit with the leading edge of the bow

78 mph in Erick. This might be one of the biggest wind events Oklahoma has ever seen.

Convective inhibition should start to slowly increase as the line approaches OKC, and therefore my best guess is that this event will “peak” in southwest/west central Oklahoma, but this is still going to be an incredibly dangerous event for the entire Metro. Do not get caught outside or on the roads when these storms roll through around 9:30-10:30 tonight.

Tornado Watch coming for rest of the state. Winds going into the storms are almost damaging themselves. Gusting 40mph. Winds behind the storm are also extremely high. There will be trash and debris everywhere in the morning.

Are these circulations showing up near Gracemont and Minco these typical spinups along a QLCS? The couplets showing on radar look really small/tight.

Are these circulations showing up near Gracemont and Minco these typical spinups along a QLCS? The couplets showing on radar look really small/tight.

Yes, that is correct.

Tornado warning for Yukon into downtown OKC. Sirens are on.

Polygon is huge for this warning. So basically the entire metro is included except SE sides.

I'm just a bit SSE of the airport and I the back end of the storm line has already passed us.

I can't recall a storm moving that fast!

Crazy.

I can't recall a storm moving that fast!

Crazy.
The warning for north Edmond lasts 30 more min and the storm has already passed

And just like that, we move on to the next one. Which btw looks like wet snow chances Thursday night.

Hardly has any chance to get any rain. Lol. Hopefully everyone was able to stay safe and avoid damage.

Thank you Cold Air. Even though this was bad if we would of hit 70 it would of been Horrible.

Fortunately, Stillwater got the not so strong part of the line. No storm warnings issued here. Wind has gust up to 41 mph, so far, for the strongest this year. Just .06" of rain, so far, to no surprise from very fast movement of the storm. Pressure got down to 29.23. With pressure that unusually low, some place is going to get hit hard by something, such as Norman. The last time pressure got unusually low, OKC got dumped on by a heavy dust storm.

Hopefully, Tulsa is also getting the not so strong part of tonight's storm.

My daughter at OU took a vid that shows a split second of the tornado and some debris. TOO CLOSE!

Anyone know the path of the tornado that hit the Mustang/Yukon area? It was pretty loud near Reno/Cemetary and I saw some power flashes but didn’t see a tornado.