Possible severe risk SE Oklahoma to start the year...

Today has been absolutely beautiful. Started chilly but what a glorious day! Happy New Year!

^

Yep! I spent most the day outside doing some re-planting and raking leaves.

What a glorious last few days and a tremendous start to the new year.

I've been slaying a lot of outdoor projects that I usually don't get to until early spring.

Looks like it's going to stay relatively warm for awhile. That brutal cold snap really makes you appreciate these nice days.

Got our outside Christmas lights down this afternoon. Perfect weather for outside work.

From NWS Norman

It's a tale of two mornings across our area with a warm front moving northwestward, raising temperatures from the upper 30s to near 60 degrees as it passes by. In Oklahoma City, temperatures rose 13 degrees in 10 minutes at 3:00 a.m!

January is setting up to be a very odd month. Checked some of the long range models, and I’m not seeing any hints of precipitation or any big cold waves of energy coming down into the state. There may be some hints of rain in 2 weeks, but that’s it. Seems like more of an early March pattern to me.

January is setting up to be a very odd month. Checked some of the long range models, and I’m not seeing any hints of precipitation or any big cold waves of energy coming down into the state. There may be some hints of rain in 2 weeks, but that’s it. Seems like more of an early March pattern to me.

Sounds wonderful. I will take it. I really don’t like the cold at all.

January is setting up to be a very odd month. Checked some of the long range models, and I’m not seeing any hints of precipitation or any big cold waves of energy coming down into the state. There may be some hints of rain in 2 weeks, but that’s it. Seems like more of an early March pattern to me.

The warmth is nice but we really need rain. After a fairly wet December it’s been very dry except in the far eastern counties. That is typical for January but will not help alleviate the drought.

http://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

Good grief! It's only Jan. 6, and 5 tornadoes for Oklahoma sets a record for the most tornadoes ever in the month of January, according to channel 5 meteorologist Damon Lane.

Good grief! It's only Jan. 6, and 5 tornadoes for Oklahoma sets a record for the most tornadoes ever in the month of January, according to channel 5 meteorologist Damon Lane.

The good news is that the number of tornados in January doesn't really indicate what will happen in April or May.

After a dry couple weeks outside of the far eastern counties the pattern looks like it is shifting and the storm track becoming more favorable for rain across OK after 1/20. Any system this time of year can bring snow but temps look to stay on the warmer side for now

Temps approaching 70 degrees across the state on Monday. Humidity will also be increasing ahead of the next storm. Still some uncertainty on where the low sets up and associated DRY SLOT but possibly some decent rainfall for many areas with the best chances in eastern OK. Going on a month without substantial rainfall for many areas which is making the drought worse. Another couple storms behind this one so an active pattern looks probable toward the end of January.

Been pretty quiet around here, but as others have mentioned we will see a string of potential storm impact over the next week.

Beginning tonight there is a slight chance of a passing shower or two for C OK, nothing significant. Another storm with light rain/snow potential this coming Saturday. A more significant storm will be in the area around Tuesday.

Tonight (01/17/2023):
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023011712/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_25.png

Decent rains across portions of the state with east-central and NE OK the big winners. Another chance of widespread rain on Saturday 1/21 and again on Tuesday 1/24. Both of these will be colder systems but should stay all rain as it looks right now.

http://data.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Will wait for short-range model runs before getting into the details, but the upcoming storm for next week is looking pretty solid for precipitation statewide. Could be some heavy snow in N OK.

The NWS is starting to warn about possibly impactful snow for Tuesday across much of the state. https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1616540349564096512

Which probably means we end up getting a couple inches that actually stick and all pandemonium breaks out for 24 hours until it melts.

Local mets going to go full doomsday cast this weekend, so I will show you the models they will cherry pick right now.

Still a long ways out, but forecast as of Friday evening shows a significant wet snowstorm for the area. Temperatures will be 31-33F, so this will definitely bust for someone.


CAN:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023012012/gem_asnow_scus_22.png



GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012018/gfs_asnow_scus_20.png

I think channel 5 isn't as prone to overly sensationalizing upcoming weather.

GFS model showing heaviest snow through central OK and especially the higher elevations of SE OK and NWA

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012118/gfs_asnow_scus_17.png

Really good moisture possible with this storm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012118/gfs_apcpn24_scus_12.png

Any guesses on how travel on I35 going south out of OKC to the OK/Texas boarder will be on Wednesday starting at around noon?

Look here is the deal. It's going to snow. It might be rain/snow at times. Will parts of the state see 6 inches of snow yes most likely 1-44 south. Could the Metro see 6 inches yes. Will you see 6 inches on the ground NO. Snowing during the day, ground is still warm, temps will be right around 33 the whole event. Everyone relax it's going to be wet. Might get 2 inches total on the ground when all said and done. Also we are still a tad early it's only Sunday morning. A slight change in the track could be less snow or a degree or too warmer in the atmosphere it could just be all rain.

If you need something to hype start hyping the temperatures from January 30th until at least February 6th. A whole week of highs in the teens might even be 2 weeks with temps like that.

Surprised to see it snowing this morning.

I have to fly to Houston Thursday afternoon. Will the weather be ok by then?

Surprised to see it snowing this morning.

Shocked the TV stations are not wall to wall. :)

I have to fly to Houston Thursday afternoon. Will the weather be ok by then?

High near 45 on Thursday 42 on Wednesday. This is hardly even going to be a 1 day event.

Shocked the TV stations are not wall to wall. :)

Maybe that was their New Year’s Resolution.

Here is some of the latest data as of about 3pm Sunday. This does appear to be a significant snowstorm, however temperatures will barely be touching freezing. So melting will heavily diminish accumulations.

We should see winter storm watches going up across the area tonight.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023012218/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_55.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023012212/gem_asnow_scus_13.png

Crazy seeing the effect of the higher elevations in the Ouachita and Boston Mountains. That is not very common but could be a real difference maker with this storm.

Man, a tough forecast for schools and other transportation-dependent industries. Seems like tomorrow evening is going to be a mess regardless the exact accumulation amounts

Models are mostly in agreement about storm track, there has been a notable shift north in track over the latest runs from the NAM. The low's track and health of the deformation zone will determine who gets a secondary sweeping wave of heavy snowfall.

As of right now, I would put the Lawton-Norman area with best shot at high snowfall totals.

I think this is overplaying the snowfall due to melting/mixing with rain but a few spots will pick up some decent snow
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2023012312/048/sn10_024h-imp.us_sc.png

Regardless of snow I'm liking these moisture totals
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2023012312/048/qpf_024h-imp.us_sc.png

Now let’s remember folks (before anybody gets butt hurt over how tomorrow turns out) that there is a big difference between snow fall totals and total accumulation. It may snow a bunch but it’s been so warm that, unless you’re under a major snow band, you may not see much accumulating snow.

So how does the National Weather Service see it? At least it isn't a more serious winter storm warning.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:

Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, southeast,
southern and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on the potential of slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Information:
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
In Oklahoma, for the latest road conditions call
8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7. In Texas, for the latest road conditions
call 800 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

Counties Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Blaine - Bryan - Canadian - Carter - Coal - Cotton - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grant - Harper - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Stephens - Woods - Woodward

Winter Storm Warning now issued for the watch counties. Tulsa area upgraded to Winter Storm Watch as the models have moved the heaviest bands further north. This will be a very wet slushy storm which is just what we needed

So how does the National Weather Service see it? At least it isn't a more serious winter storm warning.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:

Details:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, southeast,
southern and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.
* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on the potential of slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Information:
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
In Oklahoma, for the latest road conditions call
8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7. In Texas, for the latest road conditions
call 800 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

Counties Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Blaine - Bryan - Canadian - Carter - Coal - Cotton - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Grant - Harper - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Stephens - Woods - Woodward

I'm grateful we here in Cleveland county are going to miss this storm. My condolences to everyone in every county surrounding us:p

18Z NAM continues north budge of the storm track.

HRRR maintaining the southern track.

The answer is probably somewhere in between, but precip plume evolution will really show the hand we are dealt by sunrise.




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023012318/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_29.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023012318/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_29.png

I'm rooting for HRRR

NAM still going crazy with the snowfall totals. I don't think any of the models know how to accurately forecast this event, it's one of the more dynamic and unique systems we have seen here in a long time. I think we are closer to a 6:1 ratio with only the mountain areas getting closer to 10:1...so cut those amounts in half in the OKC/Tulsa metros

18Z NAM
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2023012318/042/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

18Z GFS
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012318/048/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'm grateful we here in Cleveland county are going to miss this storm. My condolences to everyone in every county surrounding us:p

I'm sorry, but the full story for all the state was not presented.

Pink counties in WINTER STORM WARNING. Blue counties in Winter Weather Advisory. Green counties, including Tulsa, in winter storm watch:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Measure the snow ever hour probably will get 6-7 inches. Measure it when it's all done you might be 3-4. Even NWS says 3-4 accumulating snow. Per NWS Tuesday Snow. High near 36. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 31. North northwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible

Oklahoma City Schools Closed. SMH I mean maybe I guess it's possible but temps above freezing, ground above freezing, solar radiation, warm cars on the roads. It's going to have to be really really snowing hard to over come melting and even than this will be a very easy snow for the plows to work and salt and beet juice will work well with temps around 33 degrees. Well shall see.

^ Jeez kukblue, who peed in your cornflakes this morning? You have been very combative with the forecasting of this storm. Just take a deep breath and realize this storm is difficult to forecast. Lots of variables in play that decide whether it snows and how much accumulates. IMO, I would rather the schools play it safe just in case and let out early if they’re in the path of this storm. No point in putting kids at risk.

Starting to get some snowflakes at my house, although nothing is sticking yet.

Starting to get some snowflakes at my house, although nothing is sticking yet.

snow is coming down very hard in north edmond .. grass is now covered roads still clear

Oklahoma City Schools Closed. SMH I mean maybe I guess it's possible but temps above freezing, ground above freezing, solar radiation, warm cars on the roads. It's going to have to be really really snowing hard to over come melting and even than this will be a very easy snow for the plows to work and salt and beet juice will work well with temps around 33 degrees. Well shall see.

IIRC, the main reason for closing schools here (we don't have kids, so this is just what I've read somewhere) is that if it's not safe for kids to walk to/from school or the school bus stops, they'll close the schools (that's just one reason I've heard). And with this much snow, kids will not be able to walk safely on sidewalks or in the street, so they're closing schools, or at least that's my take on it.

Oklahoma City Schools Closed. SMH I mean maybe I guess it's possible but temps above freezing, ground above freezing, solar radiation, warm cars on the roads. It's going to have to be really really snowing hard to over come melting and even than this will be a very easy snow for the plows to work and salt and beet juice will work well with temps around 33 degrees. Well shall see.

They're not closed, they're having a virtual day, so not a total loss of learning and you avoid the possibility of the storm overperforming and causing a massive headache (which doesn't look like it'll happen, but still). Makes perfect sense.

Big snowflakes in Norman. Looks very pretty!

Big snowflakes in Norman. Looks very pretty!

what part of norman? i'm near I-35 and it's still a very wet slush. hoping it will change over soon

EDIT: nevermind. it switched over while i was typing that. lol

Big snowflakes in Norman. Looks very pretty!

Just switched over to snow here in south OKC, near Crossroads. With the arrival of the snow, air temperature as reported by my weather station is dropping too - it was 35.9°F at 10:15am, and now it's down to 34.0°F

^ Jeez kukblue, who peed in your cornflakes this morning? You have been very combative with the forecasting of this storm. Just take a deep breath and realize this storm is difficult to forecast. Lots of variables in play that decide whether it snows and how much accumulates. IMO, I would rather the schools play it safe just in case and let out early if they’re in the path of this storm. No point in putting kids at risk.



should we close for heavy rain storms than. what about storms in the forecast.

IIRC, the main reason for closing schools here (we don't have kids, so this is just what I've read somewhere) is that if it's not safe for kids to walk to/from school or the school bus stops, they'll close the schools (that's just one reason I've heard). And with this much snow, kids will not be able to walk safely on sidewalks or in the street, so they're closing schools, or at least that's my take on it.

Now that makes a little bit of sense. Lot's of kids down here probably don't have boots and gloves either. Thanks for a sensible answer.

Beautiful snow right now!

Regardless of accumulations, I'm just grateful for the moisture.

They're not closed, they're having a virtual day, so not a total loss of learning and you avoid the possibility of the storm overperforming and causing a massive headache (which doesn't look like it'll happen, but still). Makes perfect sense.

Which they did for almost an entire year. I'm sure kids hope the whole virtual day trend ends and they get to have snow and ice days again. lol

Unlike in Norman, in Stillwater this morning just got some thick wet snow that didn't stick for long, if it did. Around .1" of liquid. Schools and OSU didn't close. Temp now around 37. Same situation in Tulsa. So far, for Stillwater, the winter storm warning is looking ridiculous.

A lot of the snow that was sticking to the grass is now melted.

I hope this trend continues where we get some nice precip but not bad roads or lots of snow piling up.

The snow ended up being nothing so off to work I go in a few hours! I am not staying long though since my boss wants us to return home safely

snow still coming down pretty hard in north edmond and sidewalks / driveways and neighborhood streets are slushy

I know according to some people I have been under hyping this storm but the accumulation is still coming. I think after sunset from the 6-10 hours where things will start to accumulate on grass and on the roads. You lose radiation from the sun. There might even be thunder snow just south southeast of the metro. Norman may see a Thunderstorm with all snow. Dry air is working in right now for the rest of the afternoon but after about 5 really start to watch things.