Will somebody please provide some clarity on the forecast for this system. I keep hearing “school closures, ice tomorrow, etc.” The models look kinda blah on tomorrow. I’m so confused on this system right now.

Will somebody please provide some clarity on the forecast for this system. I keep hearing “school closures, ice tomorrow, etc.” The models look kinda blah on tomorrow. I’m so confused on this system right now.I agree. FV3 is the only one really showing much of anything. But all of my employees are asking if we'll be closed because the TV forecasts are predicting much more than the models are showing.

I agree. FV3 is the only one really showing much of anything. But all of my employees are asking if we'll be closed because the TV forecasts are predicting much more than the models are showing.

The might be another wave in the morning around 9-noon. Just like today. It might not be very much but like I have said before it's not going to take much to turn the roads to crap. It's not going to be 4-6 inches but it doesn't need to be when it's this cold. 1/2 inch of sleet, or freezing drizzle will get the job done.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=554902900008680&set=a.228493719316268

Will somebody please provide some clarity on the forecast for this system. I keep hearing “school closures, ice tomorrow, etc.” The models look kinda blah on tomorrow. I’m so confused on this system right now.

Looks like Mustang and Edmond have already called it for tomorrow, with Mustang being closed and Edmond being virtual. I expect the other major districts will do so later today.

ETA: OKCPS will be virtual tomorrow.

Here is the latest for OKC.

Mon->Tues AM [coinflip]: Another round of light wintry mix will develop late tonight across N/NW TX. This wave will push NE much like this morning's round. Looks like primary type will be sleet again. The more reliable models do show precipitation impacting OKC from this round, but the best chances will again be S and E of the metro. There is a chance that everything could stay E.

Tuesday PM: The rest of Tuesday day is quiet for the metro, much like Monday.

Wednesday [roll a dice]: The main low comes out of NM and the warm nose begins to overtake the shallow cold air. This is where it gets tricky because models suck at temperature forecasting these scenarios. The general consensus on models is that the majority of the state will get above freezing on Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will again drop near freezing heading into the night. This is when the rain associated with the main low will be passing across TX. Now much like the rest of this storm, the bulk of precipitation is expected to be SE of I-44, so OKC may not see much precipitation to have the air temp even matter. We should have a better idea in the next 36 hours.


Wednesday night GFS [OKC cold rain]:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023013018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_10.png


Wednesday night GEM [freezing rain just SE of OKC]:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2023013018/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_60.png

Wednesday night Thursday morning might be really ugly. Major ice storm for North Texas Southern Oklahoma. OKC metro as of now just on the northern edge.

I agree. FV3 is the only one really showing much of anything. But all of my employees are asking if we'll be closed because the TV forecasts are predicting much more than the models are showing.

Looks like TV forecasts should have gone with the models. Most schools and even OKC trash pickup cancelled.

Probably a little over-reaction because yesterday turned out to be pretty bad. Not a big deal and better to be safe.

Focusing in on Tuesday, January 31st as the day that will most likely have the most travel impacts.

Swing and a miss on my part.

After this week the pattern favors warmer weather with rain chances across the state around 2/8 and again 2/13.

Swing and a miss on my part.

Just add "in the DFW area" and you'd have been correct. ;)

Swing and a miss on my part.

what are we looking at for the next 48 hours??

Yesterday's drive home and this morning's drive to work were fun to see the difference in amounts.
N of Wilshire & W of Rockwell got solid coverage of a half inch or so of sleet. Our street was a rink this morning.
From somewhere E Rockwell to somewhere W of Council between NW 39th and Wilshire got virtually nothing. Neighborhood streets were dry yesterday afternoon in that area.
Near WRWA we got enough to turn the parking lots white but you could still see paint markings so I'd guess a tenth of an inch maybe. And it evaporated over night.

Some light sleet pockets coming into OKC right now, nothing major.

Rest of Tuesday and Wednesday AM is just cold.

Wednesday afternoon into evening we will see large swath of light rain slowly coming up from TX, this will most likely be freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. Models are very iffy on if this would make it far enough north to impact OKC. I will post some QPF forecasts below. As you can see, OKC is literally on the edge for this storm being done.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2023013112/nam3km_apcpn_scus_17.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2023013112/rgem_apcpn_scus_51.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023013112/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

I know many of you think I hate the schools for closing but I was ok with them being closed today. It was going to be too close of a call. The Precipitation tried to form but didn't quite make it into the metro and formed just east once again If it would of happen roads would of been bad. Now tomorrow no excuse for them not to be open. Also know a few business closed today not really sure about that either. Thursday morning expect them to be closed again.

I know many of you think I hate the schools for closing but I was ok with them being closed today. It was going to be too close of a call. The Precipitation tried to form but didn't quite make it into the metro and formed just east once again If it would of happen roads would of been bad. Now tomorrow no excuse for them not to be open. Also know a few business closed today not really sure about that either. Thursday morning expect them to be closed again.

Umm, looking at the weather for Thursday, it is going to be just cloudy so schools and businesses are not going to be closed

I know many of you think I hate the schools for closing but I was ok with them being closed today. It was going to be too close of a call. The Precipitation tried to form but didn't quite make it into the metro and formed just east once again If it would of happen roads would of been bad. Now tomorrow no excuse for them not to be open. Also know a few business closed today not really sure about that either. Thursday morning expect them to be closed again.

At least in my neighborhood the roads are all still ice. I could see schools being closed tomorrow since buses could have issues in neighborhoods.

At least in my neighborhood the roads are all still ice. I could see schools being closed tomorrow since buses could have issues in neighborhoods.

OKCPS is a snow day tomorrow, meaning no virtual, just off.

At least in my neighborhood the roads are all still ice. I could see schools being closed tomorrow since buses could have issues in neighborhoods.

Yeah, my boss just told me that schools are closed tomorrow

Yeah I spoke too soon schools closed already for tomorrow. I know there might be a few neighborhoods bad out there but REALLY? Going to have dry weather all night and all during the day tomorrow. The sun is even trying to poke out.

At least in my neighborhood the roads are all still ice. I could see schools being closed tomorrow since buses could have issues in neighborhoods.

And your neighborhood is where? I'm just southeast of Lake Overholster on a street that never gets plowed or treated and I have nothing. I drove all around the city today on a few neighborhood roads. I was out and about but I saw nothing. I have a friend in Edmond says his street is pretty iced but he lives kind of what I would call the country even though it's Edmond. I see on the OCPS page it's cause of the weather expected tomorrow even that that is not coming in into late in the day.

I just saw that there will possibly be ice tonight

Latest HRRR shows no more precipitation making it to OKC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023020100/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

Man, what a strange couple of weeks for weather forecasting we have had.

Oh well. Looking forward to the kids going back to school after tomorrow. Lol

Man, what a strange couple of weeks for weather forecasting we have had.

Oh well. Looking forward to the kids going back to school after tomorrow. Lol

LOL I need that. There is an .5 inch in the forecast for ice they not going back to school the rest of the week. I mean have you been out there tonight and seen how horrible things are. :)

I don’t know about anyone else’s neighborhood but I live at Wilshire and County Line and our neighborhood streets are still garbage. I can see justification for school closure. My son is also up at UCO which is a big commuter college and the side roads around there are bad too. Getting to main roads where it is essentially dry is the issue. Any melting during day is frozen as I about bit it on my driveway this am.

Don’t understand the passionate distaste toward schools being closed.

I don’t know about anyone else’s neighborhood but I live at Wilshire and County Line and our neighborhood streets are still garbage. I can see justification for school closure. My son is also up at UCO which is a big commuter college and the side roads around there are bad too. Getting to main roads where it is essentially dry is the issue. Any melting during day is frozen as I about bit it on my driveway this am.

Don’t understand the passionate distaste toward schools being closed.

If you ever lived up north you would understand. There will be inches of snow on the ground and roads and you still go to school. If for some reason a bus couldn't make it down a road you were asked to take you kids to the nearest main road for pick up. Out in the country that could be a mile or two. But I get it no one down here knows how to drive on just a little bit of icy roads. It's called going really slow and you will be just fine.

If you ever lived up north you would understand. There will be inches of snow on the ground and roads and you still go to school. If for some reason a bus couldn't make it down a road you were asked to take you kids to the nearest main road for pick up. Out in the country that could be a mile or two. But I get it no one down here knows how to drive on just a little bit of icy roads. It's called going really slow and you will be just fine.

Its cultural. We don't have the infrastructure as people up north do and the people down here don't have the experience and knowledge to feel confident or succeed on driving on slick roads. People here also potentially don't have the winter gear to go out for extended periods of time. In my family we all have coats that are fine enough, but if its particularly cold we aren't staying outside very long. I wouldn't want my kids standing on the side of a road waiting for pick up. You can just say "do it like they do up north" and expect that to happen seamlessly.

Comparatively, we are much more prepared for severe weather than a lot of other areas. We know what to look for, we know how to react, we know where to go. Other places may not. This isn't scientific at all, but off the top of my head I recall comparing the 2011 Joplin, MO tornado with the 2013 Moore, OK tornado. I recall they were similarly sized tornados tearing through similarly sized towns. I'm sure its not exactly apples to apples, but the number of fatalities was much higher in Joplin compared to Moore and I think that's at least in part due to people in Moore knowing what's up and being prepared. Which isn't a slight on Joplin in the same way I don't think closing schools due to less snow/ice (or even just cold) here is a slight on us compared those up north.

Right, I was up in New England for a significant, extended heatwave (mid-high 90s) last July and they are totally unprepared for that! They don't have the air conditioning capacity (some buildings don't have it at all) and they complained like crazy. They were unprepared. But while I was there I wasn't telling them they were handling things all wrong, etc., they just prepare for it it like we do here (powerful a/c everywhere) and as a consequence, don't handle it as well. So be it. They don't make investments in infrastructure that they might only use once or twice a year, so they deal with it the best they can and move on. We should do the same. I heard all of this tiresome "the way we do it up north" ALL THE TIME while living in Florida, too, it gets old fast. Each place has unique climatic differences and anomalous events that everyone does the best they can to deal with.

I don’t know about anyone else’s neighborhood but I live at Wilshire and County Line and our neighborhood streets are still garbage. I can see justification for school closure. My son is also up at UCO which is a big commuter college and the side roads around there are bad too. Getting to main roads where it is essentially dry is the issue. Any melting during day is frozen as I about bit it on my driveway this am.

Don’t understand the passionate distaste toward schools being closed.We're at Hefner & Council. Monday evening we went home to about .5 inch of sleet. Yesterday morning it had become a sheet of ice and was a skating rink. By mid afternoon it had melted and had started to evaporate. This morning everything was dry.

We're at Hefner & Council. Monday evening we went home to about .5 inch of sleet. Yesterday morning it had become a sheet of ice and was a skating rink. By mid afternoon it had melted and had started to evaporate. This morning everything was dry.

Venice neighborhood has been pretty much dry since Tue morning.

If you ever lived up north you would understand. There will be inches of snow on the ground and roads and you still go to school. If for some reason a bus couldn't make it down a road you were asked to take you kids to the nearest main road for pick up. Out in the country that could be a mile or two. But I get it no one down here knows how to drive on just a little bit of icy roads. It's called going really slow and you will be just fine.


I lived in Northern Colorado….does that count? Northern states get more snow than Ice. Ive lived here most of my life and and ice is the usual fare and even just a light glaze (like is predicted late tonight and early am) causes mass chaos around here. I’m also an ER nurse and light glaze means more slips and slides and kiddies with broken things when they fall…… and there’s that one person, somewhere, that sues a school/school district , because they didn’t close or something along that line or the bus slid and so on and so on… And here we are, the liability factor comes into play..

I lived in Northern Colorado….does that count? Northern states get more snow than Ice. Ive lived here most of my life and and ice is the usual fare and even just a light glaze (like is predicted late tonight and early am) causes mass chaos around here. I’m also an ER nurse and light glaze means more slips and slides and kiddies with broken things when they fall…… and there’s that one person, somewhere, that sues a school/school district , because they didn’t close or something along that line or the bus slid and so on and so on… And here we are, the liability factor comes into play..

Yep totally agree about the liability Factor and pretty soon they won't be going to school when it's too hot either. Still shocked with all the football players that have died from heat exhaustion that they're still out there on hot days

Recent HRRR runs are a bit more bullish on ice in okc tonight.

Lol. Now David Payne is backing off ice chances in okc. Lol. I have no clue what’s going on.

The air in place is just too dang dry around here and it's too much for the precipitation to overcome. You could see in the radar trends earlier today that the stuff was really moving north but there was a vast line where the precipitation was just disappearing as it was moving north.