I wasn't really expecting much, but so far for Tulsa it's been a bust. We got a little rain around noon and nothing since then. Maybe we'll see a few flakes tonight.

Again, wasn't expecting much especially with the temps, but it sure seems like just about every time snow is forecast it's been a bust.

I do miss snow though. We got a couple actual snowfalls of a few inches last year and that was great. This year we've had one small accumulation before Christmas and it's starting to look like that's all the actual winter we'll get. Is there a record being tracked of fewest days dipping below freezing? I feel like this year must be a contender.

I wasn't really expecting much, but so far for Tulsa it's been a bust. We got a little rain around noon and nothing since then. Maybe we'll see a few flakes tonight.

Again, wasn't expecting much especially with the temps, but it sure seems like just about every time snow is forecast it's been a bust.

I do miss snow though. We got a couple actual snowfalls of a few inches last year and that was great. This year we've had one small accumulation before Christmas and it's starting to look like that's all the actual winter we'll get. Is there a record being tracked of fewest days dipping below freezing? I feel like this year must be a contender.

Even doom and gloom me wouldn't call it a bust. It has snowed and it has snowed good today they just under estimated how much melting was going to happen. I keep repeating it. Temp above freezing, warm ground temps in the 40's yesterday and solar radiation is a horrible combo for an accumulating snow Wait until it gets dark let's see what happens. But some dry air is still trying to mix in especially NW metro

This event so far has not lived up to Winter Storm Warning criteria, or at least here in Edmond. A winter weather advisory would have been perfect. Yes some snow but with little to no impact on roads. That being said, I do realize it's only 4:30PM. it has been very pretty here out the window all day as I have been working.

Bust or not all I care is what the roads are like. NAM and HRRR have been pretty much right on as far as snow accumulation and temperature. And if they hold with being right overnight there won't be much of a problem getting anywhere in the morning.

This event so far has not lived up to Winter Storm Warning criteria, or at least here in Edmond. A winter weather advisory would have been perfect. Yes some snow but with little to no impact on roads. That being said, I do realize it's only 4:30PM. it has been very pretty here out the window all day as I have been working.

If it were just a few degrees cooler, this would have been a much more material storm.

OKC has probably had around 3" of snowfall on average, but obviously looking outside there isn't much anywhere due to the temps. Basically this is the perfect snow.

Looks like one last hurrah heading into the evening with a snow plume on the wrap-around of the low. Main impacts will be S and E of OKC as expected.

I definitely had a raised eyebrow when the WSW was expanded so aggressively into the north of both OKC and Tulsa, it was perfect where it was.

Also big L on the southern plains radars today, many of them have been down multiple times.

Edmond schools are remote learning tomorrow ..

OKC has probably had around 3" of snowfall on average, but obviously looking outside there isn't much anywhere due to the temps. Basically this is the perfect snow.

Looks like one last hurrah heading into the evening with a snow plume on the wrap-around of the low. Main impacts will be S and E of OKC as expected.

I definitely had a raised eyebrow when the WSW was expanded so aggressively into the north of both OKC and Tulsa, it was perfect where it was.

Also big L on the southern plains radars today, many of them have been down multiple times.

I agree with the perfect snow. Beautiful grass and roof cover without causing major problems. Ill take this 100 out of 100 snow events.

Edmond schools are remote learning tomorrow ..

Edmond, Deer Creek, Bethany, Putnam City, OKCPS are all remote or snow day tomorrow

There was some beautiful snowfall today. Would have been nice to see more of it stick. Oh well. This is kinda what I prefer anyway. Here today. Gone tomorrow. I think all the forecasters did a good job for this system.

Seems strange that schools are closed tomorrow, but I assume it’s because they’re afraid of icy conditions in the morning.

On to the next one!

OKC has probably had around 3" of snowfall on average, but obviously looking outside there isn't much anywhere due to the temps. Basically this is the perfect snow.

Looks like one last hurrah heading into the evening with a snow plume on the wrap-around of the low. Main impacts will be S and E of OKC as expected.

I definitely had a raised eyebrow when the WSW was expanded so aggressively into the north of both OKC and Tulsa, it was perfect where it was.

Also big L on the southern plains radars today, many of them have been down multiple times.

Just drove home from office downtown in film row. (7 pm) No snow on ground downtown. My house just the other side of the airport has a good blanket of 1-2 inches snow across the neighborhood. All five-six acres lots so not a lot of concrete to hold heat. The roads (I40/I-44) were not slick and just wet with traffic moving around 60 mph

Looks like an active pattern on the long range. Multiple storm systems lined up to come through although they don’t quite line up perfectly with Oklahoma. Although that could change. Looking forward for the opportunity for more moisture.

There was some beautiful snowfall today. Would have been nice to see more of it stick. Oh well. This is kinda what I prefer anyway. Here today. Gone tomorrow. I think all the forecasters did a good job for this system.

Seems strange that schools are closed tomorrow, but I assume it’s because they’re afraid of icy conditions in the morning.

On to the next one!

Makes way more sense to be closed tomorrow now that we have actually some snow that might freeze than closing today when IT WAS GOING TO MELT and not start until at least 10am. SMH

Looks like an active pattern on the long range. Multiple storm systems lined up to come through although they don’t quite line up perfectly with Oklahoma. Although that could change. Looking forward for the opportunity for more moisture.


I wonder if these systems is where the chatter about an ice “storm” next week. I’ve started to see chatter on all three stations about it.

NWS hasn’t mentioned in I’m their forecast discussions yet though.

Next week as of a few days ago was going to be really cold. Now the computer models are giving shots of cold air high in the low 20's off and on all next week. So we shall see

Just drove home from office downtown in film row. (7 pm) No snow on ground downtown. My house just the other side of the airport has a good blanket of 1-2 inches snow across the neighborhood. All five-six acres lots so not a lot of concrete to hold heat. The roads (I40/I-44) were not slick and just wet with traffic moving around 60 mph

Yep Airport has had about 1.6 by now for the day with an inch on the ground.

Some models are indicating possible ice next week accompanying reinforced colder air intrusions after this weekend.

Some models are indicating possible ice next week accompanying reinforced colder air intrusions after this weekend.

Definitely an unsettled pattern the next two weeks. Hopeful any ice accumulations are minimal and it stays mostly rain.

Some models are indicating possible ice next week accompanying reinforced colder air intrusions after this weekend.

So schools will be closed by Friday? 2 soon? I kind of get Tuesday while they were closed you don't want them there and things get really bad but Today?

Aaron Tuttle says the models are showing a news making major ice storm early next week as the weather changes to an Artic pattern. He says it's too early to pin down where it will center.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=notif&v=715261510007038&notif_id=1674670506318306&notif_t=live_video_explicit

Aaron Tuttle says the models are showing a news making major ice storm early next week as the weather changes to an Artic pattern. He says it's too early to pin down where it will center.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=notif&v=715261510007038¬if_id=1674670506318306¬if_t=live _video_explicit

Models have shifted some of that further south into Texas and show more ice into Missouri. I would wait until this weekend's model runs to worry about anything, and even then they can be completely wrong like this last event. Models do not do well with winter weather especially in the South where slight changes in temperature, moisture and dry air intrusion can completely change a forecast. For example the Tulsa metro stayed above freezing and therefore received no snow while models showed 6"+

Models have shifted some of that further south into Texas and show more ice into Missouri. I would wait until this weekend's model runs to worry about anything, and even then they can be completely wrong like this last event. Models do not do well with winter weather especially in the South where slight changes in temperature, moisture and dry air intrusion can completely change a forecast. For example the Tulsa metro stayed above freezing and therefore received no snow while models showed 6"+Yes. The models leading up to this last event were way off. The only ones close were NAM and HRRR starting Tuesday
morning. The time it arrived.

Winter weather remains incredibly finicky to model, and this upcoming week looks like we'll be around 32 degrees again thus making yet another hard forecast

I do think the general pattern next week favors ice over snow if precipitation were to fall. Fortunately accumulations look rather light at the moment. But yes, it is for sure going to change given that we are 5+ days out.

It's only Wednesday and we are talking about a storm for next Tuesday. SMH we will never learn especially for winter weather. Severe Weather OK I'll let slide winter weather no Let's talk about it Saturday.

It's only Wednesday and we are talking about a storm for next Tuesday. SMH we will never learn especially for winter weather. Severe Weather OK I'll let slide winter weather no Let's talk about it Saturday.

What else are people supposed to talk about in a “January 2023 - General Weather Discussion” thread? Food?

Especially as it’s clear even this far out that the potential is there for an advisory-criteria freezing rain event, and there’s basically nothing of note happening between now and then in the weather world here. Am I going to cancel plans for next week right now, absolutely not, but it’s worth keeping an eye on even if for no other reason besides boredom lol.

If you need something to hype start hyping the temperatures from January 30th until at least February 6th. A whole week of highs in the teens might even be 2 weeks with temps like that.

I was ready to hype it on the 22nd but everyone was focused on the snow storm that never was going to be all that bad cause of warm temps and warm ground. Doesn't look like we get down to the teens and only for a couple days but I was on it Sunday. :)

NWS Norman is bearish so far on any meaningful precipitation next week, though caution that we're still a ways out

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1618647441003188224

GFS trend is to push the boundary further SE so most impacts would be across N TX into AR.

Obviously worth monitoring since things will keep changing. Cold air looks like a guarantee.

GFS trend is to push the boundary further SE so most impacts would be across N TX into AR.

Obviously worth monitoring since things will keep changing. Cold air looks like a guarantee.

Models have been showing most of the really cold Arctic air staying further north outside of a few days next week. Hopefully the trend continues and this is just a cold rain event

IMO, no precipitation at all is more likely than a cold rain given the pattern. I suspect we’ll either be getting some light icing, or the models will once again underestimate the strength of the Arctic airmass (common model error at this time of year) and the front will move further south than currently forecast, resulting in all precipitation forming to the SE of the Metro. I do think it’s unlikely to be enough ice to cause tree damage and power issues a la October 2020. Something on the order of 0.01-0.10” seems reasonable, which would still be enough to cause travel issues.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Highs will skyrocket back to or above average tomorrow. Sunny skies
and southwest winds will dominate. Saturday will be warmer yet for
much of the area, especially western north Texas and central and
southern Oklahoma as a thermal ridge develops ahead of an advancing
cold front. Fire weather should not be a problem thanks to the
snowfall event, which helped to add moisture to all fuels.
Meanwhile, the cold front will crash into place Saturday evening and
Saturday night, with gusty northerly winds possible behind it.

This cold front will be the harbinger of yet another pattern change.
Whereas recent cold fronts have only brought transient periods of
colder air at the surface, this one will have an Arctic source and a
1040 mb high across Alberta to reinforce it. Thus, we can anticipate
a prolonged period of below-average temperatures to begin on Sunday
and last through at least the middle of next week. In addition,
several chances for precipitation will exist. The first will be
Saturday night across southeastern Oklahoma, as warm advection aloft
is supplemented by moisture advection. The arrival of the cold front
will limit chances for rain spatiotemporally.

A more widespread chance for precipitation will occur during the
Monday night to Wednesday timeframe. A trough is currently forecast
to cut off and slowly approach from the southwest, with broad
southwest flow in front of it. This pattern will favor 850-700 mb
southerlies, which will encourage Gulf moisture advection. Unlike
Tuesday's snow event, which was driven by dynamic forcing from the
upper-level low, this one will likely be driven by isentropic
ascent. In our area, that means a warm nose. Significant uncertainty
exists in global and ensemble guidance regarding surface and warm
nose temperatures. However, an early guess would suggest that rain
might dominate across southeast Oklahoma, with freezing rain
possible across central Oklahoma and western north Texas, and snow
possible across northern Oklahoma. The heaviest precipitation looks
to be across the southeastern part of our area. Confidence is medium-
high that precipitation will develop. Confidence is medium that a
warm nose will develop to complicate precipitation types, and
confidence in any one precip type at any one location is low.

Follow along https://twitter.com/iembot_oun

Focusing in on Tuesday, January 31st as the day that will most likely have the most travel impacts.

GEM going with ultra cold sleet batch for Monday along I-44 corridor. Freezing rain threat into Tuesday for SE OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2023012718/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_70.png

http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/gem/CONUS_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_108HR.gif

I am ready for Spring to come although the nice weather was nice these days which is surprising

I am looking at the weather forecast and some say there will be ice just for 1 day or ice for a week so which is it?

I am looking at the weather forecast and some say there will be ice just for 1 day or ice for a week so which is it?

The EURO model has been the most aggressive with moisture and ice/snow, the GFS not as much. I think your best chance for any ice is across southern OK.

Rained every day this weekend while i was in Houston. Okc, meanwhile, is one spark away from igniting like a powder keg.

Watch the road conditions in the morning. We have been really cold today 1Pm and we still only at 20 degrees. The ground is frozen the roads are cold it's not going to take much for things to get bad quickly unlike that storm.

^^^we got the beets

Looks like sleet chances for OKC Monday.

Mixed bag of winter precipitation for Tuesday for OKC.

Ice storm for SE OK and into N TX.

Looks like sleet chances for OKC Monday.

Mixed bag of winter precipitation for Tuesday for OKC.

Ice storm for SE OK and into N TX.

Do we have an idea when to expect the sleet, or is that just too variable to nail down at this point?

Is it Spring yet?

For the Metro probably anywhere from 8:00 till noon

Parking lot on the North side (122nd & May) was slick within five minutes of it starting.

Convection with sleet is forming all along I-44, there will be pockets of random sleet for C OK this morning until this wave moves east.

OKC should see a break in precipitation later today before another wave of sleet/freezing rain/snow for Tuesday morning.

Major ice storm setting up down in TX from Austin to Dallas then into Little Rock and toward Memphis. Traffic accident mayhem will be taking place in many of these areas as they very rarely get winter precipitation.

I just got a wave of pea-sized hail near Penn Square.

Weather science folks, be honest. Do you guys make up new words every few years? What the hell is a "graupel"?

Weather science folks, be honest. Do you guys make up new words every few years? What the hell is a "graupel"?

According to Merriam-Webster, it's been in use since approximately 1889... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/graupel

lots of sleet in north Edmond in the last 30 min

Wow, now some serious thunder.

Weather science folks, be honest. Do you guys make up new words every few years? What the hell is a "graupel"?

I've seen Graupel a lot in Colorado, not so much here. I first saw it when I was little dropping of my older brother at the Air Force Academy and was super confused. It was like little rubber balls bouncing all over the place.

This is a really good clip about it:

https://youtu.be/faKBH8s_Z4o

Roads are terrible in the city. I drove in to my office at about 6A, just really cold but totally dry. Then the shiznit hit the fan and they sent us home, which is stupid in itself because now everyone is out driving. But alas, I made it home. Sleet is easy to drive on when it falls at first, but once it coalesces it becomes a sheet of ice. And whatever falls won't really melt until possibly Thursday.

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

Do you have kids in school and hate when it closes or something? You seem to get very worked up over school closures.

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

LOL, man I'm often critical of closures here but you really take it to a different level. That being said, when administrators went out and drove around between 5-6 nothing was falling, and frankly there was nothing on radar either because I was up at that time looking to see if I need to drive to work. This started in right during the commute. Our schools have now closed, though we kept them home anyway. Public schools won't close because the busses were already out and running, however all absences will be considered excused due to weather. Had this moved in earlier this morning they obviously would have called schools.

There have been times in the recent past where really the entire city shut down in anticipation of storms that never materialized, so I understand the hesitation for administrators today. Even as of last night, models were still all over the place. Usually there becomes a consensus of the models this close in, however they were still all over the place. I guarantee that had they closed the schools last night and nothing materialized, you would have been all over the schools for closing. I'm just guessing that based on your past comments the last week.

Here is the deal though. I would of not been all over them for cancelling today if nothing happen. I It doesn't matter the percent of precipitation only at 30% chance today okay but if it snows at 15°, the roads are going to turn the crap versus if it snows at 35°, with a warm ground temperature. Precipitation falls at 15° versus 35°, the roads are going to be bad. NWS even was warning people 12 hours ago that the morning commute was going to be horrible. I guess being from the North I don't understand how things work down here. Your well below freezing for 24 hours ground is frozen freezing rain, sleet, snow in the forecast you leave schools open. Warm ground temps, air temps above freezing and you close? Sorry if I don't understand. On to the next storm.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNorman/posts/pfbid02GwzVbvVYSjSChR75FfrmgD3TA5pohB63u1vw3Zsn6b9 cTjmk2fk8bLVPhvLYju5Jl

wait so must schools are open today with the roads not in the best of shape but closed when they were just wet last week? SMH

You must be a school janitor

Busses are going to have issues on neighborhood streets this afternoon.

And those streets will be worse tomorrow.

Busses are going to have issues on neighborhood streets this afternoon.

And those streets will be worse tomorrow.

I think schools will be closed tomorrow