Last month of 2022! Bring on a little more rain.

Central OK is about 6-7" under normal for the year. 2022 OKC is on pace for top 30 driest years on record.

Right now it looks like some rain chances with moisture feeding in from the SW Saturday into Sunday. Usually this moisture feed precedes a storm pattern favorable for winter storms across the Plains.

Central OK is about 6-7" under normal for the year. 2022 OKC is on pace for top 30 driest years on record.

Right now it looks like some rain chances with moisture feeding in from the SW Saturday into Sunday. Usually this moisture feed precedes a storm pattern favorable for winter storms across the Plains.

Outside of a pocket around Sequoyah County the entire state is below-normal for the year with historically low annual totals across northern OK. Case in point, the Arkansas River through Tulsa has been mostly dry for the past several months. Entering the driest months December-February I don't expect these numbers to improve significantly but remain hopeful for a wet spring. A wet spring has followed the last few major droughts.

http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png

Outside of a pocket around Sequoyah County the entire state is below-normal for the year with historically low annual totals across northern OK. Case in point, the Arkansas River through Tulsa has been mostly dry for the past several months. Entering the driest months December-February I don't expect these numbers to improve significantly but remain hopeful for a wet spring. A wet spring has followed the last few major droughts.

http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delcalendaryear_rain.current.png

We're 3 years into a La Nina cycle. That's been a big driver of the drought, not only in Oklahoma, but across a good swath of the country. We might break out of La Nina late winter or in the spring. We may even go into an El Nino. That should help feed a lot better rainfall for the country. The 2011/2012 heat waves and drought were also fed by a La Nina.

We're 3 years into a La Nina cycle. That's been a big driver of the drought, not only in Oklahoma, but across a good swath of the country. We might break out of La Nina late winter or in the spring. We may even go into an El Nino. That should help feed a lot better rainfall for the country. The 2011/2012 heat waves and drought were also fed by a La Nina.

Yes this is very similar to the La Nina in 2011-12 which typically means lower rainfall/drought for the southwest and central regions. We should be getting into a wetter period as early as next year possibly later in '23. Typically El Nino brings more severe t-storms/tornadoes to the state
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR293lrUYAABWlR?format=png&name=900x900

https://news.okstate.edu/articles/engineering-architecture-technology/images/2019/drought_index/attachmentainstory.jpg

Feed from the SW part of the country continues this week. Another storm will ride along this flow and bring rain chances Wednesday into Thursday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2022120512/rgem_apcpn_scus_84.png

Every single one of these storms is off 50 miles from being a drought-buster. Alas.

Every single one of these storms is off 50 miles from being a drought-buster. Alas.

Yep need to slide this to the north. The areas along the OK-KS border have not seen as much of the recent rainfall. Crazy how tight the gradient has been between the "haves" and "have-nots"

NAM coming in with a substantial adjustment in track forecast which would roughly put I-44 corridor under the training storms.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022120618/nam3km_apcpn_scus_16.png

That’s more like it! Hope it pans out

Mike Morgan has Stillwater among the heaviest in the state with 2.3". I'll believe it when I see it.

Amounts fresh off the press.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022120712/nam3km_apcpn_scus_11.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2022120712/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_32.png

East OKC metro up I-44 to Tulsa metro, south to DFW and east into Arkansas are currently in a Day 6 (Monday) 15% Risk area, potentially for tornados. Day 7 moves the risk mostly over Arkansas, east Texas, and the north half of Louisiana.

Weather service sure is being conservative about OKC rain totals. Basically suggesting an inch.

^NWS has OKC in the 1.5 swath with localized 2" areas. This is as of about 3pm.

The idea is that more lift will enter the region when the low comes across the area. This should result in some convective precipitation, which is currently forecast to most likely be along and just S of I-44.

^NWS has OKC in the 1.5 swath with localized 2" areas. This is as of about 3pm.

The idea is that more lift will enter the region when the low comes across the area. This should result in some convective precipitation, which is currently forecast to most likely be along and just S of I-44.

I noticed they updated it. What are your thoughts on whether or not it's a sound forecast? Rain showers have been mostly light to moderate. Looking at Mesonet, looks like OKC has only grabbed about a quarter inch so far.

I would say current radar trend is favoring the heaviest stuff further south of I-44. Lawton to S Norman area.

The active weather pattern continues. As long as we have this SW flow, we will keep storm chances.

Saturday: Another shot at some decent rain early Saturday morning. Best chances across NE OK.

Monday: SPC has expanded the region of 15% probability of severe weather basically for I-44 and points E. It also looks like Tuesday could be big time severe weather across the Dixie Alley.

Crazy fog this morning!

Ton of rain in Norman last night. Very foggy this morning but decent temp.

I would say current radar trend is favoring the heaviest stuff further south of I-44. Lawton to S Norman area.

The swath of 1-2"+ was mostly SE of I-44 from Ardmore to McAlester and Sallisaw. Good drought relief for that area. Hopefully northern OK gets in on the rainfall from the next two systems.

Crazy fog this morning!

We've had Dense Fog Advisories a few days in the last week, but today is by far the densest fog I've actually encountered this week...

Definitely not close to draught busting moisture but still steps in the right direction. I hope the rainfall amounts help the wheat farmers.

What's a source for local rainfall totals per 24 hr period and for weekly, monthly, etc?

What's a source for local rainfall totals per 24 hr period and for weekly, monthly, etc?

Mesonet

Thanks. Wealth of info.

Definitely interested in the potential for winter weather around the 12/19-12/22 timeframe. Long way out but the pattern looks favorable.

Thanks. Wealth of info.

Oklahomans are blessed with this magnificent resource. Other states are starting to do their own - it's really amazing all states don't already have something like this. Then again, it takes $$$.

Definitely interested in the potential for winter weather around the 12/19-12/22 timeframe. Long way out but the pattern looks favorable.

Oh no, the Hanukkah winter storm approaches.

Oh no, the Hanukkah winter storm approaches.I'm watching each GFS run praying that the ones that show little snow are closer to right.

Definitely interested in the potential for winter weather around the 12/19-12/22 timeframe. Long way out but the pattern looks favorable.

Let's focus on the severe weather Monday night Dec 12 first?

The rapid oscillations between dense fog and clear skies this evening have been absolutely fascinating.

Let's focus on the severe weather Monday night Dec 12 first?
Looks like the SPC has dropped the Day 4 15% enhanced risk for the OKC area. The reason is the storms should remain elevated and probably just be a little wind and hail. Also, the timing is a little off for significant severe weather as it looks like this will come through the metro around 6 A.M on Tuesday.

I’m loving this rain. Now that the ground has been pretty well saturated, this heavy rain should run off and start to refill the many ponds and lakes that are badly needing it…hopefully.

SPC has expanded the Slight Risk area for tonight to include SW and C OK (previously was NW OK only).

Main threat will be straight-line-winds as storms are expected to develop across W OK and form a line that moves W to E.

Another round of rainfall across a good swath of the state late Monday into Tuesday. GFS model forecasted totals below. These rain events have been great for the drought situation, hopefully they continue.

Unfortunately the Panhandle is left out again with some areas around Boise City going over two months without any moisture. The blob in Colorado is a blizzard that will have major impacts there, and could affect Denver and especially the airport if the track moves slightly further south. Heads up for anyone flying that way.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022121212/gfs_apcpn_scus_11.png

Looks like the risk of tornadoes is basically none? What about hail?

Looks like the risk of tornadoes is basically none? What about hail?

A tiny % probability of hail west of OKC... biggest threat overall is straight line winds.

A tiny % probability of hail west of OKC... biggest threat overall is straight line winds.
I agree. But we're still pulling my car inside and leaving the wife's Jeep outside tonight.

Multiple tornado reports very early this morning across S and SE OK. This has calmed down some, but the Ft Worth - Dallas area is under the gun now. Quite the potent line of storms.

For rest of today it will be mild and windy, should see sunshine build in. Then the cold air spills in behind this system tonight and will keep the remainder of the week cold with highs in 40s, lows in 20s.

This is the first month since June the majority of the state is well-above normal for precipitation. Great news heading into typically-drier January and February.
http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/pct30day_rain.current.png

The models are showing a continuous period of cold temperatures for the next 2 weeks. Looks like snow chances return around 12/22 followed by an Arctic air mass.

17 degrees for the high on the 22nd??? Oh my!!

17 degrees for the high on the 22nd??? Oh my!!

Still a long ways away meteorologically speaking, but Mike is already posting single digit highs near Christmas.

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Still a long ways away meteorologically speaking, but Mike is already posting single digit highs near Christmas.

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He is investing in milk and bread stock. Smart man.

50% percent chance of precipitation with a high of only 6. It's hard enough to get snow in Oklahoma probably really hard to get snow in Oklahoma and only 6 degrees.

Still a long ways away meteorologically speaking, but Mike is already posting single digit highs near Christmas.

17763

But I think Morgan is usually wrong with his high drama forecasting when done more than a week away. But with climate change, you never know for sure how extreme winter weather will get. I don't think I've heard of cold fronts coming from Siberia. Maybe Russia needs to thank us for taking their frigid air.

Still a long ways away meteorologically speaking, but Mike is already posting single digit highs near Christmas.

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the promoted long term KFOR forecast has 59 Wednesday 28 Thursday 35 Friday and 34 on Saturday ..

But I think Morgan is usually wrong with his high drama forecasting when done more than a week away. But with climate change, you never know for sure how extreme winter weather will get. I don't think I've heard of cold fronts coming from Siberia. Maybe Russia needs to thank us for taking their frigid air.

Mike does this all the time. It's funny looking at the 7+4 days from Emily or Jon in the mornings and then seeing Mike's forecast in the evening not even slightly resemble theirs. They'd be predicting upper 90s all summer and then he'd come in predicting temperatures 10 degrees higher 9-10 days out. And then come back to reality days later.

But it's getting us talking, so it's clearly working.

Mike does this all the time. It's funny looking at the 7+4 days from Emily or Jon in the mornings and then seeing Mike's forecast in the evening not even slightly resemble theirs. They'd be predicting upper 90s all summer and then he'd come in predicting temperatures 10 degrees higher 9-10 days out. And then come back to reality days later.

But it's getting us talking, so it's clearly working.

Mike is the ultimate Hype Man. "Our chances for a white Christmas...talking about the totals and how it could affect your Christmas travel at 10" or "discussing the potential for an historic tornado outbreak in central Oklahoma...make sure you watch at 10 to know which areas are in the danger zone" :D

So far it looks like it will just be extremely cold next week. Just small chances of winter weather.

Mike is the ultimate Hype Man. "Our chances for a white Christmas...talking about the totals and how it could affect your Christmas travel at 10" or "discussing the potential for an historic tornado outbreak in central Oklahoma...make sure you watch at 10 to know which areas are in the danger zone" :D

Mike Morgasm....

The KFOR website just changed from Aaron's 11 day forecast to Mike's. Two completely different worlds. And the models agree with Aaron's forecast of cold but pretty dry. Not Mike's of a mix.

Are you talking about for Christmas weekend? If so, there is strong indication of very cold temperatures in the area with a NW flow. So dry snow showers/flurries is feasible during the cold spell.

No. He's got a 40% chance of a mix either Tuesday or Wednesday night. Is not at my computer right now. I haven't seen a model showing that. Definitely there could be flurries around Christmas.

Mike has "possible Blizzard" for Thursday on the 7 day. Ridiculous.

Ridiculous is the word for it. Mike Morgan had up 2.1" of snow for OKC, 8.7" for Stillwater and 11.1" of snow for Tulsa on Friday morning with up to 70MPH winds and -20WCI. But Aaron Brackett on the 6pm Sat. news talked like there wasn't going to be much snow at all. He was also hopeful from latest data the cold wasn't going to hang around long and be much warmer with 44 on Monday.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/DSC01272.JPG

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/mikemorgan.jpg

We should be back to near-normal temperatures by the end of the month.

Mike Morgan saying a “Life threatening blizzard” in store for Thursday.

It’s what happens when you jump on one model and ride it till the event happens.

The NWS forecast discussion said they think the model he is using is “bullish” with how fast it’s moving and kept the amounts low.

I do think that the chances for measurable snow are increasing on Thursday. I'm less convinced that the impacts of 1-2" of snow and gusty winds rate as "life-threatening", especially here in the Metro. I probably wouldn't be making plans to drive down any dirt roads in Grant County, but for now I'm fairly nonplussed about OKC effects.