It's too hot and too dry...

I’ve stopped even looking at the long range models. Same thing every week as the drought intensifies to levels we haven’t seen in a decade. Fires and smoke are going to be a daily occurrence not to mention the ecological catastrophe unfolding for our trees, plants and wildlife.

Yeah, I’m at the point where I will believe we’ll finally get an areawide precipitation event once we are <36 hours out and the models haven’t yet backed off. Especially as we are most likely heading into our third straight La Niña winter.

I guess I am a little different, I view wildfires as beneficial to our ecosystem, killing of over growth and hopefully decreasing invasive species that push out our native species.

I’ve stopped even looking at the long range models. Same thing every week as the drought intensifies to levels we haven’t seen in a decade. Fires and smoke are going to be a daily occurrence not to mention the ecological catastrophe unfolding for our trees, plants and wildlife.

We've had this same set-up occur in the last decade several times, it was not a "catastrophe" for our trees, plants, and wildlife. It's certainly not ideal for them (new plantings especially will be at risk as well as trees that were hanging on through injury from the 2020 ice storm and 2021 deep freeze), but catastrophe is hyperbolic. Come next spring we will see renewal and hope. We always do. Remember, the plants and trees are heading into dormancy so they look rough right about now as they have suffered since mid-June, basically, and are getting ready to let go of their leaves. This is not a good time to judge long-term viability based on appearances. Many that look bad now will look near 100% come next April. This is just based on my historical observations.

Drier than Lincoln Riley's brisket. I hope we dont have a La Nina winter as well.

Catastrophe was more hyberbole, but it can’t be understated how the long-term affects of one of the hottest and driest summers (and now fall) will have on the local ecosystem. Take a drive through SE OK, I don’t ever remember seeing it look like this during late September.

And due to the effects of climate change, this will sorta become the new normal, more extremes one way or another, and just fairly unpleasant(er) for most of the year than it has been.

Catastrophe was more hyberbole, but it can’t be understated how the long-term affects of one of the hottest and driest summers (and now fall) will have on the local ecosystem. Take a drive through SE OK, I don’t ever remember seeing it look like this during late September.

I have not been down there this year, I am sure it is looking quite different. Feel so badly about that. But again, the rains will return (especially down there) and things will reset. It's just hard to watch in the moment, though.

Finally feeling like fall...hope it lasts awhile

Any predictions for an early snowfall this year?

Got a surprise sprinkle on the south side this morning.

Any predictions for an early snowfall this year?

Is this a yes no answer? If you are asking for a date then December 7, 2023.

Right now some forecast models are indicating some rain chances around mid-week next week.

Is this a yes no answer? If you are asking for a date then December 7, 2023.

Right now some forecast models are indicating some rain chances around mid-week next week.

Just curious. My sister turns 50 this year and my parents said that when she was born it was during a snow storm. She was born in November before Thanksgiving. It would be pretty interesting to have a 50 year snow storm occur.

November 1972 was the snowiest November in OKC history at 7.5”, so I’m meh on our chances of ever repeating that. We average about 0.4” per November, last November snowfall was in 2018 (though of course, we did get a small amount of snow and a whole lot of ice in October 2020).

Reading that from June 11 to today it has been the driest in 100 years. We need some rain!

I had to completely take out a nice evergreen that I cultivated for six years.

I watered it religiously, but it was close to the house and heat + the reflection off the brick killed it.


Walking through my neighborhood, I see lots of dead trees and shrubs.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/drought092922a.jpg

I had to completely take out a nice evergreen that I cultivated for six years.

I watered it religiously, but it was close to the house and heat + the reflection off the brick killed it.


Walking through my neighborhood, I see lots of dead trees and shrubs.

It's a bummer, but the only evergreen I have seen that survives well here is...surprise, surprise, the Eastern Red Cedar! I eventually lost a whole line of Emerald Thujas and I cared for them meticulously! Gardening here is not for the faint of heart.

Afternoon OUN discussion talking about some possible southwest flow aloft with a deepening western trough next week. This setup could allow for some rain and maybe some severe weather chances depending on the amount of moisture we can get in here.

I had to completely take out a nice evergreen that I cultivated for six years.

I watered it religiously, but it was close to the house and heat + the reflection off the brick killed it.


Walking through my neighborhood, I see lots of dead trees and shrubs.

I planted several evergreen's as well. Watered, watered, watered them. Yet, they didn't survive. Evergreen is now everbrown.

I planted several evergreen's as well. Watered, watered, watered them. Yet, they didn't survive. Evergreen is now everbrown.

Did you hit them with some dashes of balanced fertilizer? Those young trees are often v. hungry.

Did you hit them with some dashes of balanced fertilizer? Those young trees are often v. hungry.

Ugh. I didn't actually. Didn't really consider fertilizer. I assumed trying to over water them would do the trick. Apparently not.

Hopefully today is the last of the mid to high 80's until next year.

How about some 60's & 70's before we plunge into winter?? Still waiting for fall to actually arrive. Would like to turn off my A/C.


BTW, as dry as it is and with the ever-growing homeless issue, I bet we'll see a ton of fires started by people trying to stay warm once things cool off.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/drought092922a.jpg

Drove 75 through SE OK yesterday - really sad to see how dry that area looks right now. Dead or dying trees all over the place. So different than how it typically looks which is usually really lush and beautiful with the hills and forests

Drove 75 through SE OK yesterday - really sad to see how dry that area looks right now. Dead or dying trees all over the place. So different than how it typically looks which is usually really lush and beautiful with the hills and forests

Again, don't assume that those tress are dead necessarily. I recently spoke with the Edmond Urban Forester and some trees go dormant as a defense mechanism because of heat and drought. They basically give up and just shut down for winter early. The way you can tell that it really has died is if it hangs onto its leaves through the winter when they would normally fall off. So if you go through that area next spring and see a bunch of trees with brown leaves on it, you know they have had a big tree kill.

Water is currently falling from the sky at 50th & Santa Fe. What a time to be alive!

Hopefully today is the last of the mid to high 80's until next year.

How about some 60's & 70's before we plunge into winter?? Still waiting for fall to actually arrive. Would like to turn off my A/C.


BTW, as dry as it is and with the ever-growing homeless issue, I bet we'll see a ton of fires started by people trying to stay warm once things cool off.

The 2nd half of October has been known to have a few 80s. Halloween 2016 was in the mid 80s. November can have a few 80s.

A decent wave of rain and some rumbles of thunder is approaching SW OK at this time. This should continue to evolve and path along I-44 corridor into the evening hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022101018/nam3km_apcpn_scus_8.png

^

Let's hope we get anything close to that!

Heading outside to do my rain dance...

Decent little thunderstorm popping off out NW OKC. Good lightening show and peppering rain (which sounds pretty wonderful).

Not a drought buster by any means but anything is welcome at this point. Rain chances remain today mainly E OK then again across the state on Sunday

http://m.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png

http://m.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

The last 120 days is second driest 120-day period on record statewide. Just .09" of rain away from tying the 1959 record.

Saturday into Sunday rain chances increase across southern half of state. Barring major changes, looks like C OK will miss out on majority of rainfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2022101312/rgem_apcpn_scus_84.png

Tomorrow evening is looking pretty, pretty good in terms of storm chances. Could be our first widespread heavy rain event since September 1st.

OKC it is going to be real close for the good stuff. Most hi-def models painting the heaviest rainfall from Norman area and points south.

SPC does have a Slight Risk issued for basically I-40 corridor for any early storms that fire up packing a punch. Hashed for large hail with any isolated storms.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2022101512/fv3-hires_apcpn_scus_29.png

I sure hope that pink over Carter County happens... I need that x10.

CU field trying to get going across I-40 with some towers, but mostly struggling at this time across C OK.

Currently sitting in the Lucky Star parking lot north of El Reno watching towers try to go up. Something halfway promising to the north of me, but don’t think it’s going to make it yet. Expecting initiation around 6-7 p.m. with storms becoming increasingly widespread around 8-10 p.m.

MCD out for a potential severe thunderstorm watch

Cluster of strong to marginally severe storms continues to slowly work its way towards the OKC Metro.

Decent rains across a good part of the state but still some areas missing out. Next rain chances are on Monday the 24th

http://m.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.tenthinch.png

Now is the time to go "leaf peeping" as the trees are starting to turn colors.

Looking at the temps, I really feel like it's going to be a gorgeous fall similar to what we had in 2012.

Many 20s this morning across N and NE OK. Should see a near-statewide freeze Wednesday morning with the only ones being spared across SW OK.

Another storm system is approaching the US.

Temperatures: Warmer temperatures will continue to flood northward into the state as S winds begin to pick up heading into the weekend. Mid 80s for highs.

Fire: High fire danger Friday-Monday with those strong S winds ahead of the front.

Rain: Chances at this time look low for W OK, 50/50 for C OK, and high for E OK. Rain would mainly be Monday night.

Updates heading into the weekend.

No major changed to the fire or temperature forecast. This weekend will feel like late Spring.

Rain forecast is changing some as it looks like a deep upper-level storm system will develop on the heels of a large system that will impact the northern parts of the country heading into early next week.

Models are forecasting widespread heavy rain across the state Monday into Monday night. Could even see some minor flooding.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022102112/gfs_apcpn_scus_19.png

That would be a dream if that materializes. Everyone wash your car this weekend!

90s today!!!

Looking forward to the rain

Predictions showing the best soaking tomorrow since early May.

Fingers crossed!

Thanks to the ideal, not cold weather for it, OSU probably had its biggest homecoming weekend crowd ever. Lots of people from Texas came up for it.

Predictions showing the best soaking tomorrow since early May.

Fingers crossed!

It's sure needed to discourage the brush fires. This is an example of what one left behind near Stillwater. Maybe it explains the electrical outage Friday morning.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/brushfirenearstillwater.jpg

What is this wet stuff falling from the sky??

Really getting soaked near Penn Square, thank goodness.

Got a few minutes of good, hard rain here at 36th & Santa Fe, looked like it rained a bit earlier this morning, but wasn't raining (much) during the heart of the morning commute. A win-win!

Last round of rain is taking shape in the low's wrap-around out across TX PH right now. This will sweep across the state from W to E giving another shot at an additional 0.50-1.00" of rain.

Best this map has looked since early June - hopefully the next storm system on Friday brings some rain to NW Oklahoma and the Panhandle
http://m.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

Thursday night another storm system swings through the plains. However, it is beginning to look like this one will dive further south and bring the good stuff to TX. Will keep monitoring for track deviation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022102606/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png

Good rain chances across the entire state starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend 11/3-6. Potential for heavy rain and possible some severe storms, the exact locations will be nailed down later this week. Warmer temps in the 70’s before the system arrives.

Since I have been one of the most vocal gripers about the heat and drought, I wanted to say how near-perfect the weather has been and looks to be for the next week or two.

I love the warm -- not too hot, not too cold -- afternoons, the cool mornings and nights, the light winds, and a good spacing out of rain showers. I've been knocking out some back-breaking outdoor projects and it feels so good to get things done.

I know we are still way behind the norm on rain, but considering where we were a month ago, this already feels 100x better. Sure hope it continues and we have a mild winter.

Since I have been one of the most vocal gripers about the heat and drought, I wanted to say how near-perfect the weather has been and looks to be for the next week or two.

I love the warm -- not too hot, not too cold -- afternoons, the cool mornings and nights, the light winds, and a good spacing out of rain showers. I've been knocking out some back-breaking outdoor projects and it feels so good to get things done.

I know we are still way behind the norm on rain, but considering where we were a month ago, this already feels 100x better. Sure hope it continues and we have a mild winter.I could not possibly agree more. I pride myself on never having the top up on my Miata in 8 years. This last 3 weeks have been an almost every day commute in the Miata day. A little chilly in the morning sometimes but that's what hoodies are for. And I too hope for a mild winter. And dry even though we need moisture. Moisture will be fine with me as long as it's not snow.