View Full Version : August 2022 - General Weather Discussion



Pages : 1 [2]

C_M_25
08-21-2022, 08:19 AM
Would have liked to have seen this storm track further north. At this point, we’ll be lucky to wet the dirt in northern okc. Stillwater is also extremely dry.

BG918
08-21-2022, 12:24 PM
Would have liked to have seen this storm track further north. At this point, we’ll be lucky to wet the dirt in northern okc. Stillwater is also extremely dry.

Same, but glad some of the worst drought areas are getting it. August is typically a dry month so any rain chances are good and there are several at the end of the month.

BG918
08-22-2022, 09:09 PM
Rain chances return this weekend, especially Sunday. Rainfall forecast through the 29th:
https://content.weather5280.com/content/images/2022/08/7dayqpf.png

chssooner
08-22-2022, 10:02 PM
Rain chances return this weekend, especially Sunday. Rainfall forecast through the 29th:
https://content.weather5280.com/content/images/2022/08/7dayqpf.png

Until we get something Louisiana is going to get, these little amounts of rain really don't do much to help, aside from maintaining lawn green-ness. I hate that Mother Nature is punishing Oklahoma. Even Texas is getting dumped on.

SEMIweather
08-23-2022, 12:37 AM
I mean, I'd rather have the 0.21" that OKC got from this system than the 9.19" and massive flash flooding that Dallas got, lmao. It would have been nice to split the difference, though.

BG918
08-23-2022, 08:38 AM
Until we get something Louisiana is going to get, these little amounts of rain really don't do much to help, aside from maintaining lawn green-ness. I hate that Mother Nature is punishing Oklahoma. Even Texas is getting dumped on.

We are in our driest time of year. Late September into October typically are wetter months heading into the drier winter months. Typical La Nina winter is dry and cold but the long-range outlook favors a wetter spring in 2023.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p08.2c.gif

BG918
08-25-2022, 08:17 AM
Next storm system moves in late Sunday with the best rain chances Monday night into Tuesday with lingering scattered storms on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures stay seasonal with highs in the low to mid 90's this weekend and high 80's next week.

Watching the tropics for a potential tropical system in the Gulf later next week.

C_M_25
08-27-2022, 08:23 AM
Ugh, looks like our week long rain chances are disappearing yet again as we get closer. This year has been one of the worst years I can remember for rain prediction. Obviously, as we get closer to the storm systems, the model errors decrease and they cut back on the rain chances; however, that 3-7 day prediction of rain seems to have consistently over promised only to see these storms under-deliver.

The temps have been good though. Just wish we could get more rain.

kukblue1
08-27-2022, 11:01 AM
Ugh, looks like our week long rain chances are disappearing yet again as we get closer. This year has been one of the worst years I can remember for rain prediction. Obviously, as we get closer to the storm systems, the model errors decrease and they cut back on the rain chances; however, that 3-7 day prediction of rain seems to have consistently over promised only to see these storms under-deliver.

The temps have been good though. Just wish we could get more rain.

OH NO YOU DIDN'T. But I'm going to agree. I think this is like rain chance number 3 or 4 coming this week. The Airport has had less than an inch of rain since July 1. Only .50 so far this month with all these big rain chances we have had over the past few weeks. SMH

Pete
08-27-2022, 11:11 AM
Also, the temp predictions have been way off.

Not too long ago, we were predicted to not crest 90 in the 10-day forecast.

Now, everything has been ratcheted up to the mid-90s in the 10-day.

I'm not buying into the "temperatures are good" line. We are predicted to be about 5 degrees over normal for the next couple of weeks. Just goes to show how incredibly brutal this summer has been when 95 in September is regarded as relief.

MagzOK
08-27-2022, 11:30 AM
What we are seeing now in forecasting are teasers and hype to bring in viewership and social media followings. That's what it's all about with these local TV weather yardbirds. Top brass at the news outlets are pushing them to put out lots of teaser and hype material. Ever since Gary England left, local forecasters simply pick a model and roll with it -- and usually the most dramatic one -- and then blame the models if it doesn't come to fruition. But really, they are brazen enough now to just say 'models are saying....' and even Mike Morgan puts the name of the model on the screen! Gary's old team, they actually used their gut by interpreting all the models and making their very own forecasts. They were right most of the time and when they were wrong, he came out and said that he got it wrong and how, and then moved on to the next forecast. What we have now is a new breed of weather forecasters and I don't like it.

TheTravellers
08-27-2022, 01:42 PM
... Gary's old team, they actually used their gut by interpreting all the models and making their very own forecasts. They were right most of the time and when they were wrong, he came out and said that he got it wrong and how, and then moved on to the next forecast. ...

The Weather Channel still operates this way, watch them instead.

gjl
08-27-2022, 01:52 PM
Also, the temp predictions have been way off.

Not too long ago, we were predicted to not crest 90 in the 10-day forecast.

Now, everything has been ratcheted up to the mid-90s in the 10-day.

I'm not buying into the "temperatures are good" line. We are predicted to be about 5 degrees over normal for the next couple of weeks. Just goes to show how incredibly brutal this summer has been when 95 in September is regarded as relief.

I agree on the temps. So sick of the heat. I don't think I've ever seen cracks in the ground in my yard like I have now. It has shrunk so much that the cap I have covering access to one of my sewer clean outs got popped off and won't go back on because the top of the clean out is just too high now. Cracks along all of my fence lines like I've never seen.

baralheia
08-27-2022, 02:51 PM
The Weather Channel still operates this way, watch them instead.

TWC is quite good, but in my personal opinion, the National Weather Service is the gold standard. https://www.weather.gov/norman

baralheia
08-27-2022, 02:57 PM
OH NO YOU DIDN'T. But I'm going to agree. I think this is like rain chance number 3 or 4 coming this week. The Airport has had less than an inch of rain since July 1. Only .50 so far this month with all these big rain chances we have had over the past few weeks. SMH

I agree with you, kind of wild how off the models have been this year. I installed my new personal weather station on July 15, and since then I've registered just a hair over 3/4". I'm about one mile west of Crossroads.

https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/83169cf33cf334e2a018ad32fed108ff/tiles

kukblue1
08-27-2022, 10:21 PM
The model runs tonight (Saturday 8-27) have gone crazy. Big time rain chances for the Metro. Fingers crossed. Until I actually see storms coming I'm not buying it. Drought leads to more drought.

kukblue1
08-28-2022, 09:59 AM
Well the last two good computer runs on Sunday morning don't look very promising not promising at all.

gjl
08-28-2022, 10:09 AM
It rained very light here this morning for about 30 minutes. Maybe 1/16 inch in the rain gauge.

kukblue1
08-28-2022, 01:46 PM
There problem be a storm or too to the north of the metro later today. A few places might get rain but far from a widespread rain . The Nam Nest does so a good rain moving it around 11pm monday night but it also dies it off rather quickly.

kukblue1
08-28-2022, 03:58 PM
It's hot out there made it up to 98. One of the TV Stations I won't name which one but I went back to look on Thursday had the high today at 89. Friday they had it at 92. Saturday they had it up to 95. NWS had it 90 and 94. Just my two sense but I think they are just under estimating how dry it is. IT'S HOT OUT.

BG918
08-28-2022, 04:14 PM
It's hot out there made it up to 98. One of the TV Stations I won't name which one but I went back to look on Thursday had the high today at 89. Friday they had it at 92. Saturday they had it up to 95. NWS had it 90 and 94. Just my two sense but I think they are just under estimating how dry it is. IT'S HOT OUT.

I’ve about given up even looking at the forecasts. I just assume it won’t rain and usually it doesn’t

kukblue1
08-28-2022, 06:27 PM
What was all the drama I'm seeing about KFOR and the golf tournament? I guess they cut in during a key moment.

okatty
08-28-2022, 07:12 PM
^ Yes, cut in when Sheffler was putting for a tie on 17 of the Players Championship. It was a quite critical moment! Ha. They cut in a number of times before that but they were not quite as dramatic.

Anonymous.
08-28-2022, 07:13 PM
Flashflood threat increasing for the N metro right now with nearly stationary severe storm.

Edmond Hausfrau
08-28-2022, 09:01 PM
Flashflood threat increasing for the N metro right now with nearly stationary severe storm.
All the previous rain sprinkles missed me, so this one has decided to park right over my roof.

okatty
08-28-2022, 09:05 PM
This has been quite a lightening show too!

kukblue1
08-28-2022, 09:23 PM
9:30 still not a drop by the airport and my house by the outlet mall just south of the lake .12. SMH

kukblue1
08-28-2022, 10:04 PM
Finally my house and airport is getting it.

gjl
08-28-2022, 10:16 PM
Getting a good soaking by 39th and Meridian. Will check the rain gauge in the morning and post the results.

chssooner
08-28-2022, 11:02 PM
Southeast OKC still missing out on the soaking rains. It all dies over the city.

BG918
08-29-2022, 06:57 AM
Southeast OKC still missing out on the soaking rains. It all dies over the city.

Norman too. This has been the strangest summer for rainfall with some places receiving several inches while less than 10 miles away nothing. We need a big line of storms to just sweep across the state.

C_M_25
08-29-2022, 09:14 AM
No sooner than 3 days ago, all the local meteorologists were showing temps less than 90 deg and rain chances for this entire week. The forecast that I'm seeing now is all in the mid- to upper-90's and no rain chances at all. I feel like I'm in bizarro-world right now.

Anonymous.
08-29-2022, 09:16 AM
Storms are already developing across N OK. These are almost stationary with a slight drift to the north. Any given place in OK has pretty equal random chance of seeing a storm bubble up. Flash flood and brief gusty winds will be the main threats.

MagzOK
08-29-2022, 09:23 AM
No sooner than 3 days ago, all the local meteorologists were showing temps less than 90 deg and rain chances for this entire week. The forecast that I'm seeing now is all in the mid- to upper-90's and no rain chances at all. I feel like I'm in bizarro-world right now.

No, not in a bizarro world. These local meteorologist are instructed by their bosses to pick the models that are most dramatic and forecast those in order to keep viewers on their stations and to keep clicks on social media to stay "checked in" for the weather. That's first hand info from a friend who used to work in the field. Gone are the days of accurate forecasting when Gary England would look at all models and make his very own forecast with is gut, then admit when he was wrong which really wasn't very often. Rick Mitchell was the same way. KOCO started pressuring him to forecast the drama so he finally left because he wouldn't do it. Gary, well he had too much control and wasn't going to do it, and well we all know about Mike Morgan.

gjl
08-29-2022, 09:25 AM
Getting a good soaking by 39th and Meridian. Will check the rain gauge in the morning and post the results.

1 and 1/2 inches

baralheia
08-29-2022, 09:36 AM
Looks like we picked up just over an inch of rain 1 mile west of Crossroads.

Zuplar
08-29-2022, 10:14 AM
I'm right by Will Rogers Airport and only got 0.62 inches last night. Happy to get some but wish we'd have gotten more like some did.

Anonymous.
08-29-2022, 10:31 AM
Storms going up NW of El Reno are severe. Some small hail developing in those. Again movement is almost idle so if you are under these, you will experience flash flooding.

soonerguru
08-29-2022, 01:03 PM
We got a couple of inches at our home last night. Lasted a good hour and a half.

Bunty
08-29-2022, 01:34 PM
Norman too. This has been the strangest summer for rainfall with some places receiving several inches while less than 10 miles away nothing. We need a big line of storms to just sweep across the state.

Stillwater only got teased and missed out on the heavy rain last night, but since around noon it has gotten around 1".

Anonymous.
08-29-2022, 01:47 PM
Severe storm coming up now over Yukon-Warr Acre area. This will likely flood parts of the metro if it continues to develop.

BG918
08-29-2022, 03:53 PM
Pretty good soaking for a large portion of the state with this system

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

baralheia
08-29-2022, 05:27 PM
Pretty good soaking for a large portion of the state with this system

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Keep in mind if you link to an image from the Oklahoma Mesonet, their images are "live" and continually updated. If you want a snapshot of that moment in time, you have to save the image and reupload it somewhere like Imgur or the photos section of this site and then link to that saved image.

That said, yeah this some much needed rainfall for a good portion of the state. Really glad to see it. We've picked up just under a quarter inch of additional rainfall so far today near Crossroads.

BG918
08-30-2022, 05:51 AM
Yes I realize the linked Mesonet maps are always changing. This map has not been this green all summer. Amazing to see Seminole County at 80 days without 0.25”!

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

chssooner
08-30-2022, 08:47 AM
Poor Maud or Bowlegs in Seminole County...

BG918
08-30-2022, 09:16 AM
Poor Maud or Bowlegs in Seminole County...

Really bizarre that there is this hole. 80 days is a long time!

Models are showing some isolated storms over the state this weekend but NWS isn't buying it.

bucktalk
08-30-2022, 12:39 PM
The heat dome returns next week?!? Please...no!!!!!

okatty
08-30-2022, 01:19 PM
^That’s what Jon Slater just said. UUGH. I will say we got about 2 inches of rain the last few days and things just look immediately better. Probably short lived but some relief anyway if you were lucky enough to get some.

shavethewhales
08-30-2022, 01:42 PM
At what point do you start cloud seeding? We've got the humidity for it...

midtownokcer
08-30-2022, 01:48 PM
^That’s what Jon Slater just said. UUGH. I will say we got about 2 inches of rain the last few days and things just look immediately better. Probably short lived but some relief anyway if you were lucky enough to get some.

Someone mentioned it earlier a few days ago, but KFOR was showing highs in the 70s and 80s at one point last week. Lol. mid 90s in September. Awesome.

gjl
08-30-2022, 02:52 PM
For future temp predictions the Weather App on my iPhone seems to be more accurate than any of the local TV weather predictions. It is supposed to be sourced from the Weather Channel I understand.

gjl
08-30-2022, 02:54 PM
Someone mentioned it earlier a few days ago, but KFOR was showing highs in the 70s and 80s at one point last week. Lol. mid 90s in September. Awesome.

I tell people not familiar with our weather that we have summer, maybe 2 weeks of fall, then winter.

Anonymous.
08-30-2022, 02:56 PM
Not sure what the local mets have been promising, but temperatures in the low 90s and upper 80s is pretty good, considering the furnace we just climbed out of.

Long-range September outlook still looks like normal to below average temperatures with some decent rain chances.

BoulderSooner
08-30-2022, 03:05 PM
Not sure what the local mets have been promising, but temperatures in the low 90s and upper 80s is pretty good, considering the furnace we just climbed out of.

Long-range September outlook still looks like normal to below average temperatures with some decent rain chances.

thank you

gjl
08-30-2022, 03:19 PM
I keep hoping for a year when I can go to the State Fair with temps in the 60s or even low 70s on Senior Day because that's when we go but I'm sure I won't be around if that ever happens.

BG918
08-31-2022, 07:54 AM
Rain chances increasing for Thursday. There will also be scattered storms around on Saturday and Sunday.

gjl
08-31-2022, 12:07 PM
2 inches of rain did nothing for the cracks in my yard. :mad:

Bill Robertson
08-31-2022, 12:29 PM
I keep hoping for a year when I can go to the State Fair with temps in the 60s or even low 70s on Senior Day because that's when we go but I'm sure I won't be around if that ever happens.
It could be choosing memories but I remember nights at the Speedway in long jeans and a jacket. Even being happy to have a fire suit instead of not being able to wait to get it off.