I don’t understand why everyone is pushing the severe weather threat today. It doesn’t look like the warm front is going to push very far into southern Oklahoma today. Also, with the waves of rain, it doesn’t look like we ever really charge the atmosphere. What am I missing?

Incredibly complex setup means a lot of margin for error, and there’s likely going to be a high-end parameter space somewhere in the state, just not sure where yet. I still favor SW Oklahoma for the greatest threat but that doesn’t mean the risk for the Metro is nil. All in all, it’s just going to be a mess today, with as many as three more rounds of storms impacting OKC in addition to what’s already moved through.

Party has started early today.

The main focus will be I-40 and south for afternoon severe threat, but nowcast situation will be needed for all areas where any/if clearing occurs. SPC has this outlined this morning with Enhanced Risk carrying 10% tornado probability with 30% hail.

Atmosphere is going to have significant lift across the state as the low pressure system is ejected directly overhead. We will have storms firing up across SW OK basically all day. Then potentially another round from dryline development out in the TX PH that turns into more of a squall line.

It is a very muddy forecast due to cold pooling and the instability question mark. Personally I think any substantial tornado threat for C OK will be for leading discrete supercells that get out ahead of the main cluster. Then an after-dark lighter tornado threat for any spinups associated with QLCS.

EDIT: Almost forgot to mention the biggest positive. Many models forecasting rainfall in amounts of 4-6" across a solid portion of SW and C OK. (also for E OK, but they are already spoiled over there)

It's hard to imagine the atmosphere getting too charged up when your high temperature is only 67. Am I wrong?

SPC has upgraded SW OK and NW TX to Moderate (15% TOR) as short-range models indicate a handful of supercells to develop across that region and track east. They have also added a hashed area (30%) for significant wind threat from about OKC to S of Tulsa.


High dewpoints and temps in the 70s are spilling back over the RR across SC OK, this should continue spreading N, but to me as of typing this around 11:30am - OKC's instability will be more mild compared to points S and SW.


Storm initiation looks like it will occur across NW TX before large-scale destabilization can take place across most of OKC viewing area. This will cast additional cloud cover up to the NE.

Not loving this SPC language about hurricane-force gusts....

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1521904743961923584

Dewpoints in okc barely in the 60’s. I just don’t understand what’s going on today. Hard to see any major severe weather here in okc unless dewpoints rise quite a bit more.

Dewpoints in okc barely in the 60’s. I just don’t understand what’s going on today. Hard to see any major severe weather here in okc unless dewpoints rise quite a bit more.

I mean, I'm more than ok with rain. The amounts of rain we have gotten are good for lakes, but not the ground. It can only absorb so much, and the rest is runoff. A slower, steadier rain would be ideal here.

Sounds like tornado watch coming for central OK and north Texas.

Edit: And there we go https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1521918940619808769

I don’t really think we’ll get enough surface-based instability into the OKC area for a higher-end tornado threat, but there will still be more than enough elevated instability for a wind/hail threat, particularly with the main convective system that should move in from the west in the late evening hours.

Of course, the SPC just pulled the trigger on a tornado watch all the way up to Tulsa and I’d trust them more than myself, so

What time was the storm that went through OKC metro this a.m. ?

Dewpoints really coming up this afternoon and nosing a bit up into Oklahoma co. Dewpoints currently at 63 deg in central Oklahoma co with 67 not too much further south. I wonder if that front can push northward any further or if we’ll see anymore deepening of that moisture here in okc.

Of course, the SPC just pulled the trigger on a tornado watch all the way up to Tulsa and I’d trust them more than myself, so

I'm certainly no expert, but in reading the mesoscale discussion, it seems to be the watch area was selected in view of the most aggressive northern movement of that boundary area. I think the northern edge of its movement probably defines the northern edge of the higher risk when all is said and done.

What time was the storm that went through OKC metro this a.m. ?

Roughly 0600...

I'm certainly no expert, but in reading the mesoscale discussion, it seems to be the watch area was selected in view of the most aggressive northern movement of that boundary area. I think the northern edge of its movement probably defines the northern edge of the higher risk when all is said and done.

Dewpoint maps are suggesting that it might be pushing that far north.

15% hatched TOR (and accompanying MDT risk) expanded to include the entirety of the OKC Metro south of I-40.

The 18z Norman sounding is still very stable up to about 700mb. I’ll be interested to see what the 21z sounding looks like. IMO, it still feels aggressive to have the MDT risk including OKC, but it’ll ultimately depend on how far north the warm front gets.

The 18z Norman sounding is still very stable up to about 700mb. I’ll be interested to see what the 21z sounding looks like. IMO, it still feels aggressive to have the MDT risk including OKC, but it’ll ultimately depend on how far north the warm front gets.

I was noticing the same thing. Even the HRRR is fairly stable. (There is a minor window for about an hour and then it quickly shuts down.)

This could be a C.Y.A. Type of risk map. At this moment there is a single storm in southern Oklahoma that appears to have issues staying alive.

HRRR showing numerous cells developing over the next 2 hours all across the S half of OK - Especially E of I-35. And then bleeding up into EC OK. Then a broken line of supercells comes in from the TX PH and lights things up along I-40 and all points south.

SPC upgrade is due to tornado probability moving from 10% to 15%. Any cell going up in the warm sector will likely be rotating to some degree. Also movements will be especially quick to the NE.


HRRR emphasizing flood risk along I-44, especially across C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022050419/hrrr_apcpn_scus_16.png

I don’t know how much more the warm front is going to move. According to the latest HRRR (currently the 20z run) it appears like OKC might be north of the front which means lots of rain and hail.

Both the SIGTOR and Supercell composite stay south, along with a CAP that apparently exists as well.

Again, I wouldn’t set this in stone and it’s WAY to early, but I have seen this in the last two HRRR runs.


But please someone correct me, if I am reading it wrong.

OKC was always at the northern edge of moderate risk area. So it wouldn't be surprising if warm front never lifted north of OKC.

I have to say that this seems like a very unusual system. Heavily touted for the possibility of producing tornadoes yet it just doesn’t “feel” like that kind of storm. Like has been said, this feels more like a flood event.

I don’t know how much more the warm front is going to move. According to the latest HRRR (currently the 20z run) it appears like OKC might be north of the front which means lots of rain and hail.

Both the SIGTOR and Supercell composite stay south, along with a CAP that apparently exists as well.

Again, I wouldn’t set this in stone and it’s WAY to early, but I have seen this in the last two HRRR runs.


But please someone correct me, if I am reading it wrong.
I just looked at the SPC map myself and the SIGTOR data and I think you are reading it correctly. I think it all depends on how far north that boundary makes it. Right now, the highest risk is south.

The cells going up E of Lubbock will be the anchor for the main show later tonight. If you look @ the Frederick radar, you can see the boundary from about the corner of the state line and extending NE toward I-44. Any cells that ride along this boundary will have the best shot at tornado production.

Storms firing up now across the SC and C part of the state will still have ability for small supercell structures that can produce hail and anything super isolated can still produce spinups.

New MD is out that focuses increased tornado potential in the area I described above this post.

Supercell going up S of Shawnee is also looking serious.

Norman to Noble needs to be on watch for the cell coming up down near Lindsay, OK.

Additional towers going up N of Chickasha and also N of Pauls Valley. Everything is spinning right now. Tornado warning going into Seminole (again).

Couple of storms by Newcastle/Blanchard are forming up.

Yes two more supercells coming up west of Norman and Moore.


Purcell-Wayne area you are about to get a tornado warning.

Tornado on the ground near Maud

The Newcastle storm has a little tail on it. Anything to be concerned about?

The Newcastle storm has a little tail on it. Anything to be concerned about?

Yes, if you are in Moore - this is the one to watch.

TV Mets are so focused on Maud, rightly, but yeah I'm around 134th and May and very interested in the Newcastle storm.

The Newcastle storm has a little tail on it. Anything to be concerned about?

I think anything in this area is likely to rotate and form a hook. If you are east of that area I'd pay darned close attention to it.

Seminole getting hit hard! Hopefully everyone is staying safe there.

Power flashes all over the place. Strong hook w/ multiple circulations.

It looks like the storm to the east of more/Newcastle is getting a bit ragged. Wondering if it jumped the front and is losing its heavy rotation.

Could be me guessing, I’m using a crappy radar, so someone correct if possible.

Damage in Seminole. Purcell storm not as strong now.

All the cells hugging I-35 have become very scattered.

Is the threat from here on out for okc basically high base storms with wind, hail, and flooding threats?

Holy cow! Seminole is about to get hit again!

Looks like it may go just N of the last path. But this is basically 3 large tornadoes in three day span. Amazing.

ANOTHER Tornado moving into Seminole. Horrible.

Very low dewpoints in Canadian co seem to be shielding okc from storm development. Seems like anything moving into that area from the southwest erodes immediately. Will this “ridge” eventually erode so that we see some rain on the west/northwest side of the city?

Radar beginning to light up back toward the W now. Most of OKC missed out on the afternoon severe storms. Tornado watch is set to about expire in about 50 minutes.

Models continue to shift heaviest storm training just S of I-44.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022050501/hrrr_apcpn_scus_9.png

New MD is out for the same areas we've been looking at all afternoon. Emphasis on damaging wind threat from an evolving MCS out in SW/W OK.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0651.gif




Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 176...177...

Valid 050213Z - 050345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 176, 177 continues.

SUMMARY...Convective trends suggest that clustering/MCS development
may occur over the next few hours along/south of the warm front.
Damaging winds will become more common with time. Tornadoes are most
likely with discrete storms in Northwest Texas, though line-embedded
supercells and circulations are possible as well. Replacement
watches will likely be needed this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convective trends in southwestern Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas show increasing storm coverage. Supercells are
ongoing just south of the Red River, with the lead cell continuing
to produced tornadoes. IR satellite trends also indicate cloud
cooling along the warm front and NLDN shows an increase in lightning
activity. These trends all suggest that MCS development may occur
over the next several hours. While temperatures south of the warm
front have cooled, low 70s F dewpoints will keep that cooling to a
minimum. Given the downstream instability and forcing from the
trough, storms should continue along and south of the boundary this
evening/overnight. Damaging winds will become more common as a
transition away from discrete cells occurs. While some activity will
occur north of the warm front, storms there should generally be more
of a threat for hail

The greatest short-term tornado threat will continue to be in
Northwest Texas with the supercells moving east. Given the low-level
wind fields, however, tornadoes will remain possible even with more
linear activity.

A replacement tornado watch is likely for activity south of the
boundary. The hail threat north of the boundary may be sufficient
for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Wendt.. 05/05/2022

OKC has been dropped from the tornado watch. Severe thunderstorm watch *might* replace it.

Yesterday was not an easy forecast by any means as this storm system seemed a little strange with the low temps and dewpoints most of the day. The overcast conditions didn’t help much either. However, I feel like everyone (models included) did a pretty good job with this system. It was a little strange that the big area pegged for tornado development was in the SW quadrant of the state but most of the tornadoes occurred in the SE quadrant of the state. That could be bias though as most of the coverage was on those storms in the SE of the state. Good rain coming through this morning too. Hopefully we’ll get a few days of nice weather before the next system.

Lake Eufaula may get a run at the record high level. They are only 14 feet from the record before all of last night's flooding upstream.

Anyone know why the sirens around Yukon area are going off? I assume something's broken as there doesn't seem to be anything going on.

Anyone know why the sirens around Yukon area are going off? I assume something's broken as there doesn't seem to be anything going on.

Definitely in error, but poor timing as there is some thunderstorms popping up across C OK this morning.

FYI - hail threat ongoing with the elevated storms currently moving through the area. Golfball sized hail reported in El Reno. Don’t have too much else to say about it as storm evolution appears to be rather chaotic and driven by some subtle mid-level forcing that wasn’t really picked up by the hi-res models. But something worth mentioning.

Storm currently over Blanchard looks to be intensifying and will likely hit OKC head-on around 11:15-11:30 or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up getting a warning for large hail.

Just got the most hail I've seen in a while at Hefner & Council. Glad I had pulled my car inside.

It had stopped but now it's hailing some more. Plus raining so hard I can barely see the house across the street.

Yesterday was not an easy forecast by any means as this storm system seemed a little strange with the low temps and dewpoints most of the day. The overcast conditions didn’t help much either. However, I feel like everyone (models included) did a pretty good job with this system. It was a little strange that the big area pegged for tornado development was in the SW quadrant of the state but most of the tornadoes occurred in the SE quadrant of the state. That could be bias though as most of the coverage was on those storms in the SE of the state. Good rain coming through this morning too. Hopefully we’ll get a few days of nice weather before the next system.

I was going to ask about yesterday's set up with our group of part-time mets on here: So I don't feel as though I have seen a set-up like we saw yesterday in the 12 years I have lived here--with this warm front stalling and then tornadic storm after tornadic storm training over the same area with little relief for several hours! I feel like most of the time the storms fire along the dry line and then move through and we're basically done because some particular element changes and the dynamics just aren't present anymore for tornadic storms. Was this set-up unusual or rare? Kind of seemed like nightmare scenario which we don't see much. Please correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed unique. Was just wanting a bit of perspective on yesterday with those more experience than me both with the science and just plain living here.

Storm currently over Blanchard looks to be intensifying and will likely hit OKC head-on around 11:15-11:30 or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up getting a warning for large hail.

These storms are now trending down and should only pose a small hail threat as they move through the Metro.

It wasn't necessarily rare, it was just the position/track of the low wasn't as traditional as it has been as of late.

Instead of a low ejecting from CO>KS/NE. We had a low eject from NM>TXPH

The result was everything was shifted further south.

Triple point was in TXPH/W OK instead of KS; the isolated dryline action was located down across NW/W TX

The warmfront nosing up from the S was happening across S/C OK instead of KS.



For example, take this map from just earlier this year and shift everything down to the SW over TX/OK and you bring the same results with it.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJE5UafMVgOwLmmiQfFghwNKGqiN95zHgOJAj6hlbs5p ovk-vJo-E_ZbqXWAwgheVBsMOavrHGsMJhPaZhwATHURn8YxMFRvQYKt48 evsCrdbv83e6IQgECcid1y8cDn91Jnh1-kMTsCD5p3ck0DWCgmnIxJaRa48629TLLX2Es_A1ZLfOXfl3xCY G/s1200/severe%20weather%20wednesday.png

I was going to ask about yesterday's set up with our group of part-time mets on here: So I don't feel as though I have seen a set-up like we saw yesterday in the 12 years I have lived here--with this warm front stalling and then tornadic storm after tornadic storm training over the same area with little relief for several hours! I feel like most of the time the storms fire along the dry line and then move through and we're basically done because some particular element changes and the dynamics just aren't present anymore for tornadic storms. Was this set-up unusual or rare? Kind of seemed like nightmare scenario which we don't see much. Please correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed unique. Was just wanting a bit of perspective on yesterday with those more experience than me both with the science and just plain living here.

Perhaps a bit unusual, but not out of the question. I'm reminded of the May 31, 2013 storms that kept generating right around the same area west of El Reno, training multiple waves of tornadic thunderstorms and torrential downpours through the Metro.

Perhaps a bit unusual, but not out of the question. I'm reminded of the May 31, 2013 storms that kept generating right around the same area west of El Reno, training multiple waves of tornadic thunderstorms and torrential downpours through the Metro.

I was similarly reminded of 05/06/2015.

Ugh, we got some pretty large hail in our neighborhood in north okc. Looking like egg sized to potentially baseball sized hail. New roof time…for the second time in 5 years.

Ugh, we got some pretty large hail in our neighborhood in north okc. Looking like egg sized to potentially baseball sized hail. New roof time…for the second time in 5 years.
What I got here was mostly dime size with a few nickel size. But lots of it for about 10 minutes.