Welcome to April! Let the warmth and rain roll in...

Hoping for a good rain event from Sunday Evening through Tuesday Morning, as the second half of the month looks to be warmer and drier than average.

Edit: Should also mention that we’re looking more and more likely to get about a quarter to a half inch of rain tomorrow evening. Nothing major, but will take any drought relief we can get at the moment, especially as Western OK looks to benefit with this system as well.

20-30mph winds across all of W and C OK today - fire danger high.

SPC has outlined a Slight Risk from SW into C OK for this evening. Short-Range models suggest a cluster of storms could develop somewhere across W/SW OK and move east. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat from any storms that do develop.

Monday looks like similar setup, but focus will be further across the Red River where flash flood risk will be high with numerous thunderstorms. C OK may miss out on bulk of the precipitation.

The rain is over for the week, the south of I-40 gang won out with the rainfall.

Focus today through Friday will be on the fire danger for everyone who didn't get plentiful rain. S winds with warm temperatures today. Then Wednesday-Friday we will have complete wind shift with 20mph+ winds from the N. It looks like next windshift will be Saturday - which will lead to a very pleasant day.

Still a ways out but next week (4/11-15) looks unsettled across the state with severe weather a possibility mid-week. Potential for heavy rain as well which would be great for many areas still in drought (though things have improved).

SPC has a 15% outline for Central/Eastern Oklahoma for Monday. Moderate instability and isolated thunderstorms expected. Another 15% outlined area is for Eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday.

SPC has a 15% outline for Central/Eastern Oklahoma for Monday. Moderate instability and isolated thunderstorms expected. Another 15% outlined area is for Eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday.

I have to wait a couple more day to see how much moisture return we end up getting before I get too excited. The last couple systems the models have unperformed in my view on how much moisture was expected to come in. We have been so dry and the next couple of days are going to be bone dry.

I have to wait a couple more day to see how much moisture return we end up getting before I get too excited. The last couple systems the models have unperformed in my view on how much moisture was expected to come in. We have been so dry and the next couple of days are going to be bone dry.

While yes most of the state is still in drought rainfall has been pretty close to normal the past month and southern/eastern OK just received a lot of rainfall. Hopefully that translates to better moisture return for the next few systems.

http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/del30day_rain.current.png

Still Early looks like Dry Line sets up Mon and Tue right along i-35

Still Early looks like Dry Line sets up Mon and Tue right along i-35

Yeah, that doesn't help the west with drought. Guess we are still early in the season. Hopefully things shift west as we head into May.

As of today, the area of emphasis is moving more east leaving OKC on the far western edges of the area. Dew Points look paltry on the extended outlook. Of course we're still a long ways out we can't rule really anything "in' or "out" at this point. One thing's for sure is the local hype machine is off the charts already yesterday with Damon Lane posting on FB in bold colored letters "clean out storm shelter" and Gary Lezak advertising a storm set up of historical proportions.

Dew Points look poultry on the extended outlook.

Would you say they look..... Chicken? ;)

Would you say they look..... Chicken? ;)

Hahahahahaha! Man I love that, especially since I look for that kind stuff constantly! My wife accuses me of being a grammar nazi. Gosh, I can't believe I let that one slide! Have a great day!

Would you say they look..... Chicken? ;)

Hahahahahaha! Man I love that, especially since I look for that kind stuff constantly! My wife accuses me of being a grammar nazi. Gosh, I can't believe I let that one slide! Have a great day!

Would you say they look..... Chicken? ;)

Or are we in for some fowl weather? :cool:

Hahahahahaha! Man I love that, especially since I look for that kind stuff constantly! My wife accuses me of being a grammar nazi. Gosh, I can't believe I let that one slide! Have a great day!

HAHA... I totally thought it was autocorrect that got you.... I could see my phone trying to replace paltry with poultry.

Or are we in for some fowl weather? :cool:

:D

Or a lack of fowl weather since those dew points have had their wings clipped?

This wind is becoming a problem. I don't ever remember 10-20 day stretches with 20 MPH winds in a row. It's exhausting.

Causing some big time fires out on the west side of the state, too. Average wind speeds peak around this time of year but even considering that, this month has still been fairly notable in that regard. Looks like we won’t have any real relief from the wind until next Thursday/Friday, either.

Wind is becoming my biggest gripe about Oklahoma these days. And I feel like that gripe extends into the plains as a whole. Ask people in the valley of Colorado how the wind has been lately. The wind from E CO and W KS down through the panhandles and into W/C OK is basically nonstop. The only thing that changes is the direction it comes from.

For OKC, we should see a small break tonight into Saturday as the shift from NW to W to SW takes place. Then Sunday begins our constant 20mph S wind that plagues our Springs here.

I love OKC and the climate in general, but the wind will make me move someday.

Got to finally look at some things for next week. Sunday looks like too much of a cap. Monday not enough moisture and the front is too far east or I should say dryline. Tuesday and this is all for the metro area Tuesday looks like the day that could get interesting. Moisture and dew points will be there but the cap is very strong in the morning will it break might be the big question. It's only Friday night things will change again but just my 2 cents.

50 miles heck 30 miles might make all the difference for the Metro on Tuesday. Is the Dryline along I-35 and it's far east metro event or is the Dryline along Hwy 81 that puts the metro in a big risk.

More than anything else at this point, I’m deeply concerned about the fire danger on Tuesday and Wednesday. Western OK is going to be an absolute tinderbox, and the winds will be roaring both days.

I’m going to echo what was said above about the wind. My son’s asthma has been very problematic this spring. I love Oklahoma, but this wind will be one of the few weather issues that push us away.

I want to add to this that I’m concerned about the possible shift east of our weather patterns. I’ll preface this by saying this is totally anecdotal/gut feeling, but it really does seem like our dry line set ups and overall weather patterns have shifted east. It seems like a solid trend over the past 5+ years. Maybe somebody can provide some solid data to refute this, but that is what it seems like to me.

It’s not just you.

https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-climate-change-and-why-dixie-is-the-new-tornado-alley-178863

Slight chance of a few severe storms devloping right over OKC. Best chances are towards Tulsa.

I wasn't buying the chance of storms today because of the strong cap but the models runs have been locked in on a storm North Metro up 35 for a few model runs now.

Tuesday still early but Tuesday could be a day where there are a couple of tornadoes on the ground at the same time in the State. The Dry line is going to stretch the whole state from North to South. If they are individual storms watch out. Still Looking like i-35 east but a few models are hinting it will be a bit more west of I-35. Also Northern Oklahoma/Kansas seems to be the sweet spot but it really could be anywhere along I-35

Thunderstorm watch coming out for North Central Oklahoma. Sunday 8:30. Front is just north of the Metro. 2 hours ago Wiley Post has North Wind Will Rogers had South Wind. Both are back to a South wind as of 8:30

Tuesday all heck could break loose or the cap holds and there is nothing or only a few storms. Too early to call.

Tuesday still looks like a coin flip for development of storms along I-35. Better chance just east as kukblue1 has been mentioning lately.

Could have first High Risk of 2022 for Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with large scale tornado outbreak. This area has been slammed by severe storms for months.

It’s not just you.

https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-climate-change-and-why-dixie-is-the-new-tornado-alley-178863

The past several years late April/ May has been less active than usual which is usually historically have been the most active period for western and central Oklahoma.

SPC trimming back tornado threat in KS and OK with latest D2 outlook. Probabilities cut in half and hatched area removed, save for Iowa.

At this time there is trend to a more linear development pattern if storms do develop down south into OK.

SPC trimming back tornado threat in KS and OK with latest D2 outlook. Probabilities cut in half and hatched area removed, save for Iowa.

At this time there is trend to a more linear development pattern if storms do develop down south into OK.

It does leave OK in the 30% hail hatch though...

Strange. The ingredients are there for a severe weather outbreak but none of the models are showing anything significant whatsoever developing. Looks like the cap is going to be too strong or possibly not enough heating at the surface to overcome it.

No forcing to speak of will do it. Personally feel we’ll be downgraded to a Slight Risk in the 6z Day One Outlook unless this evening’s model suite is much more robust than the solutions that have been shown thus far.

Still expecting a major wildfire event tomorrow over the western third of the state and especially in the Panhandles.

No convergence along the the dry line meaning that the winds in front of the dry line and behind the dry line are from the south. Storm system from Texas sneaking in the Southeast Oklahoma might cause sinking air in central Oklahoma and cloud cover. Also the cap is going to be very strong. That's why when you look at a computer model you may not see any storms in Oklahoma. Not saying things couldn't drastically change but that's how it's playing out right now

The latest HRRR shows nothing for Oklahoma for tomorrow. Won't be surprised if they only put us in a slight risk tomorrow as a just in case situation

^ Yes, that looks like the move at this time. Slight risk for anything that does develop, but very low chance of development. Best chance is down near the Red River and far E OK.

OKC likely will see no storms from this system, perhaps a rumble of thunder and a shower early Wednesday morning with the front coming through with blowing smoke and dust.

^ Yes, that looks like the move at this time. Slight risk for anything that does develop, but very low chance of development. Best chance is down near the Red River and far E OK.

OKC likely will see no storms from this system, perhaps a rumble of thunder and a shower early Wednesday morning with the front coming through with blowing smoke and dust.

Some TV station this morning was pushing hard this morning for storms. Not saying which one but never once showed a future view of what the radar might look like. Maybe because there was nothing to show? Since when can't we trust the short term model output? SMH

And as soon as I post that the 10am HRRR run show a big storm by Paul's Valley around sunset. I think I can I think I can. Just one run and the only storm it's showing. Stay tuned.

3pm update. If I hear the word IF one more time today. Seriously. If I walk across the street I could get hit by a car. If I walk up stairs I could trip and fall. The cap is still very strong. Super Strong. Only a couple runs of the HRRR early today showed storms down by the Red River and even those have gone away.. Might get rain over night with the actually cold front but that's probably going to be it.

We heard gloom and doom for seven days from the local fear mongering meteorologists about today and all of a sudden it was yesterday they came out and backed off calling it conditional. They are totally out for getting people to stick to the channel to 'be advised' or 'forewarned' for what's to come....or not. It really is a disservice. Meanwhile, another local internet meteorologist called it conditional for the entire seven says.

This storm is putting out an incredible April blizzard across North Dakota. 40 mph winds with 2 feet of snow. Absolutely unlivable outside.

Still monitoring satellite across OK for any towering cumulus, but nothing significant as of around 4:30pm.

We heard gloom and doom for seven days from the local fear mongering meteorologists about today and all of a sudden it was yesterday they came out and backed off calling it conditional. They are totally out for getting people to stick to the channel to 'be advised' or 'forewarned' for what's to come....or not. It really is a disservice. Meanwhile, another local internet meteorologist called it conditional for the entire seven says.

On the bright side some people might of cleaned out their Tornado Shelters. I was not one of them but pro tip. If you have one in your garage put a mat over it keeps it pretty clean.

Storms shelter manufacturers may have to rebrand their product as underground storage space or bomb shelters if this longterm pattern shift is here to stay.

Wind is becoming my biggest gripe about Oklahoma these days. And I feel like that gripe extends into the plains as a whole. Ask people in the valley of Colorado how the wind has been lately. The wind from E CO and W KS down through the panhandles and into W/C OK is basically nonstop. The only thing that changes is the direction it comes from.

For OKC, we should see a small break tonight into Saturday as the shift from NW to W to SW takes place. Then Sunday begins our constant 20mph S wind that plagues our Springs here.

I love OKC and the climate in general, but the wind will make me move someday.

It really blows (ha!). However, this may be small comfort but April is always the windiest month of the year here, so that indicates a lessening as time goes on. Once we get past May storm season I always relish the late spring / early summer weather here.

Large wildfire ongoing to the west of Elk City/to the north of Sayre. Clearly visible on satellite imagery. Has burned approximately 8,000 acres so far according to the below tweet.

https://twitter.com/OKForestService/status/1514031804776431629

This has been one of the stranger systems that has moved through during this time of year. It’s pretty rare not to get at least a few storms with this setup.

8pm SPC has dropped all risk for the Metro and pretty much all of the Norman NWS area. You should see how next week looks though. WOW :)

I know you won't believe me after about 2 straight weeks of 20mph winds, but it looks like tomorrow (Thursday) we could have almost no wind.

It kicks right back up on Friday, though.

What’s causing all this sustained wind? I don’t remember it being this windy for this long.

I imagine this was the type of winds they had during the dust bowl days.

What's that phenomena called where a group of people all forget the same thing?

I've lived in Oklahoma for 43 years and for every one of those 43 years I've said "If you don't <insert outdoor activity> in the wind. You don't <insert outdoor activity> in Oklahoma.".

Considering I've fished all 43 of those Springs here. I don't ever remember a Spring that I haven't cursed the wind.

What’s causing all this sustained wind? I don’t remember it being this windy for this long.

April is always our windiest month, but according to Mesonet data, our wind has been above average for April 2022. That makes it REALLY windy. As for the cause - not sure...

https://twitter.com/okmesonet/status/1512507252963303426?s=20&t=RG4vWHu3ZQnWR1kr-dFyfA

Next storm chance might be Friday evening. East of i-35 but as of right now with NO CAP at the start but probably will build in. Timing isn't right as of now for this system. However It's sometimes these events that don't get hyped for a week ahead of time that always seems to sneak up on everyone. They numbers are not off the charts but heck one thunderstorm warning will be more that what we had on Tuesday. JS.

I’m flying out of Will Rogers at 8:20 p.m. on Friday so lock it in tbh lol

I see you latest run of the Nam 3k. Throwing them storms in there around Sunset from Ponca City to Tulsa with them moving SE. I see you. At least you have something. I'm not expecting an outbreak but there might be a strong probably not severe but strong storm in that part of the state on Friday. More than we had Mon, Tuesday, Wednesday. We didn't even have rain on the big 3 day event. SMH

Tulsa be ready tomorrow from some big storms. OKC metro probably missing out again. We need the rain.

Anybody else here get concerned with how dry and hot it has been so far this spring? I’m having to fire up the sprinklers tonight as we have dirt cracks around the house. I know it’s early but I feel like we’ve been on the wrong side of the dry line a lot this year.

Short-range models keeping a supercell or two developing E of I-35 and tracking through E OK this evening. Tornado threat will be real with any cell heading into the night. Extremely slight chance a cell goes up near OKC, but likely we will just get some cool sunset photography of the thunderheads to our East.

Our 25mph S winds today will turn into 20mph N winds for Saturday and be much cooler. A slight chance of a shower late Saturday into Sunday morning, but doesn't look like anything crazy.

Anybody else here get concerned with how dry and hot it has been so far this spring? I’m having to fire up the sprinklers tonight as we have dirt cracks around the house. I know it’s early but I feel like we’ve been on the wrong side of the dry line a lot this year.

It could be like 2011, where the hot/dry spring foreshadowed the hottest summer in OKC history, or it could be like 2017/18 which had similar hot and/or dry springtime conditions but perfectly reasonable summers. Just no way to know yet. The long-range outlooks have been leaning hot/dry through the summer but anything beyond two weeks or so has a wide margin of error.