So how's Friday night looking? Hopefully anything that develops will clear out of here in the 6pm hour and it'll be done with, don't want to see any huge impact on NMF.

SPC is creeping Enhanced Risk into NE OK, just outside of OKC.

Surface based storm development is questionable along the dryline earlier in the afternoon. However, [elevated] storm development along the cold front later into the night looks more promising.

So once again, very nowcastesque if storms do develop or not at this time.

That was a really nice rain we had this morning and Edmond.

17420

Good old local Mets starting the hype train. Wonder how much weather anxiety is generated by posts like this.

My in-laws just moved down here from out of state and had their first OKC met experience last week. They very quickly picked up on the hypecasting nature of Morgan and Payne. It's really too bad that scaring the public into not changing the channel is their main model.

To make matters worse, May 3rd actually could be a severe weather day. I'm sure Mike Morgan is already salivating in anticipation.

Sigh... What a random and obvious thing to say "high end tornadoes are MUCH more dangerous than low end." No one lives in Oklahoma thinking an EF0 tornado is more dangerous than EF5. I guess maybe an outsider who is only familiar with the Defcon scale.

Since he said it, I will outlay the days:

Friday (very conditional on if development occurs, low chance of development with high risk if anything does.

Sunday night/Monday looks like high chance of development, especially for S half of OK in terms of severe risk .

Wednesday looks like very similar to tomorrow (Friday) setup.

high end tornadoes are MUCH more dangerous than low end.

thanks, john.

https://ricochet.com/app/uploads/2021/12/Madden-copy-300x200.jpg

Remember folks! Getting hit by a car going 70 mph is worse than a car going 25mph. So try not to get by the car going 70mph.

I've held that Mike Moron shouldn't have been on TV after his ridiculous "Drive South" on-air comment a few years ago. He is a meteorological menace.

I've held that Mike Moron shouldn't have been on TV after his ridiculous "Drive South" on-air comment a few years ago. He is a meteorological menace.

Speaking of which, he seems to think tomorrow will be worse than expected. Of course he has to find a way to reference May 3rd.

This was on his twitter feed a few minutes ago. He is actually more reserved on tv.

Tomorrow is another one of those weird “either blue skies or supercell” days that is wholly dependent on if the cap holds or not

Speaking of which, he seems to think tomorrow will be worse than expected. Of course he has to find a way to reference May 3rd.

This was on his twitter feed a few minutes ago. He is actually more reserved on tv.

He lost all credibility with me for that incident I mentioned. It was so infamous it became a topic in some severe weather prep activities in which I was involved, wherein it was mentioned that supposedly that very incident was communicated to all local media as an example of something that should never be repeated.

Does anyone have a source for current CIN levels? I tried to find a current map or similar product from NWS and some other places, but I've come up empty. I'm sure I'm just not looking under the right rock. Big message coming out right now (7am) it seems is that the cap is really strong today.

Does anyone have a source for current CIN levels? I tried to find a current map or similar product from NWS and some other places, but I've come up empty. I'm sure I'm just not looking under the right rock. Big message coming out right now (7am) it seems is that the cap is really strong today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

Go to the "Thermodynamics" section and the SBCAPE/MLCAPE maps will also have the SBCIN/MLCIN, respectively.

I would be very surprised if the cap breaks before the cold front moves through overnight. I do think there will probably be a line of storms that develops along the cold front but this should just result in a marginal wind damage threat.

From looking at the skew-t this morning, it looks like we’ll have to be well over 85 deg today to have a chance to break the cap. Probably even closer to 90 deg. I don’t think we’re expected to get anywhere near that warm today. The other possibility is that the warm air layer erodes which I also don’t think it expected to happen until that cold front comes through.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

Go to the "Thermodynamics" section and the SBCAPE/MLCAPE maps will also have the SBCIN/MLCIN, respectively.

I would be very surprised if the cap breaks before the cold front moves through overnight. I do think there will probably be a line of storms that develops along the cold front but this should just result in a marginal wind damage threat.

Awesome, thanks!

As of late morning - some of the short-range models are becoming bullish on supercell development along the dryline. Current solar radiation on the ground is being limited due to low deck cloudcover. This will be important for surface temperatures moving into this afternoon.

If dryline development does occur, it may be just 1-3 supercells. Kansas dryline development is looking likely.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022042912/wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_scus_11.png

Any idea if they’re going to release a weather balloon today at 12?

I don't know if this is prevalent across all of central OK, but where I am the morning thick cloud deck is breaking up and sun is emerging. My weather station tells me its about 75. If full sun comes out, weather forecasts may change if we start to sniff the mid to upper 80s.

I don't know if this is prevalent across all of central OK, but where I am the morning thick cloud deck is breaking up and sun is emerging. My weather station tells me its about 75. If full sun comes out, weather forecasts may change if we start to sniff the mid to upper 80s.

Looks roughly the same across central Oklahoma looking at satellite. Don't know if it will be enough though to break the cap. There is a corridor of warmer temps in the low 80's west of I-35.

I would be very surprised if the cap breaks before the cold front moves through overnight. I do think there will probably be a line of storms that develops along the cold front but this should just result in a marginal wind damage threat.

I think I still favor no supercells south of OK-51 or so, but have to partially retract this as I do think chances are trending up for initiation down the dryline late this afternoon/early this evening. We'll see. Hoping for an special 18z sounding from NWS Norman because this is about as low probability/high impact as it gets.

NWS will be doing a sounding at 1pm.

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1520032187462082560?t=DKh_CdTzB_EyjxrACDhClQ&s=19

Data is already coming in on that sounding. Either I’m crazy or that inversion isn’t as pronounced as this morning.

Yeah DCAPE is down and cap is already eroding in SW OK. Recent models have uptrended a bit too.

17424

https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/1520108003734732802

"120pm update, pt 2 - we're also noticing that our dewpoints may be a bit higher than what some of the models suggest, which could enhance our chances of breaking the cap if that trend continues this afternoon. We'll launch another balloon around 3pm #okwx"

The HRRR is incredibly close to breaking the cap, showing a few small cells down the dryline around 6:00 before they fizzle out shortly thereafter. However, it has dewpoints forecasted approximately two degrees lower than they are in reality at the moment, which could honestly make all the difference. So IDK. This is the largest conditional threat I can remember in some time, even by the standards of a severe weather season that has been defined by conditional threats thus far.

I’m getting 83-84 deg at home in north okc currently. Blue skies. I’m getting a bit nervous for this one.

For those of you who have studied these systems for a long time, how does this one rank in difficulty to forecast and energy in the atmosphere?

Tornado watch likely coming for our area: https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1520121810599104513

I’m getting 83-84 deg at home in north okc currently. Blue skies. I’m getting a bit nervous for this one.

For those of you who have studied these systems for a long time, how does this one rank in difficulty to forecast and energy in the atmosphere?

I'll chime in with my usual caveats being that I'm not a professional and I just post in these thread because it's a favorite hobby of mine.

I would say in terms of uncertainty vis-à-vis risk, today has certainly ended up being fairly notable. I really was not paying too much attention at the beginning of the day as I felt that initiation was very unlikely, but the combination of (a) the morning stratus clearing out more than I expected, (b) dewpoints refusing to mix out at all even as skies have cleared, and (c) somewhat more favorable short-range model solutions have all definitely piqued my curiosity. I still lean towards no initiation south of a Hennessey to Stillwater line, but I'm now thinking that there's maybe a 30% chance that the cap breaks in the vicinity of the OKC Metro, whereas six hours ago I was thinking there was only about a 5-10% chance of that happening. And certainly if anything manages to form I would expect a significant severe weather event.

With regards to the potential range of outcomes, I don't necessarily think that today is too difficult. I'm still basically expecting one of two possible outcomes... (a) the cap holds and no storms form, or (b) the cap breaks and we get 2-3 isolated supercells initiating along the dryline in Central/Southern Oklahoma between 4:00 and 7:00, all of which would likely carry a significant severe weather threat. Generally speaking, I feel that the most difficult events are the ones with a lot of morning convection which can then muddle the atmospheric picture later in the day. We did not get anything in that regard this morning, so we're basically left with a classic severe weather setup, but one that is 100% conditional on the cap being broken later this afternoon.

As always, my advice to anyone who is nervous on these type of days is that by staying weather aware, you're doing more than probably 80% of the population, and also that tornadoes rarely touch down without prior warning. The local news stations tend to be horrible in the lead-up to these events because unfortunately, fear drives higher ratings, and for that reason I always recommend following the Storm Prediction Center and NWS Norman first and foremost, because as a governmental organization their only mission is to provide the most accurate forecast possible. If/when storms actually do form, I do honestly think the news stations do a very good job relaying information in those nowcast situations as they tend to have very good storm chaser coverage, plus helicopters if things get really dicey. I personally prefer KOCO but your mileage may vary.

17426

Cumulus clouds are starting to bubble up now. Looks like we are in cloud watching mode.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=GEOCOLOR&length=36

Yeah I don't think this is gonna cap bust. We got cumulus all the way from Lawton up to Salina. This could be quite the day.

Clouds just broke in Tulsa. Currently 76 degrees with mid-60's dewpoints

CU field is looking very healthy for not even 4pm Temps are near 90F there. Short-range NAM model is now onboard with developing supercells along the southern end of dryline from about C OK down to the RR.

SPC is planning on issuing a Tornado Watch for C into S KS very soon per the MD that was mentioned in #151.

I was kind of surprised they didn't bump enhanced back down to I-40.

Yea really the only change is increased SIG hail down toward SW OK. Development sparking is still the key.

Damon Lane just tweeted out a sat image of some.cumulus forming SW, but right now the cap.was holding.

Yeah it looks like that cap is going to be stubborn today.

Seeing showers beginning to form on radar in the Cu field SW of Lawton, near the tri-point of Tillman, Comanche, and Cotton counties.

IMO, about a two hour window from this point for supercell initiation. If it doesn’t happen by 6:30-7:00 I don’t think it’s going to happen. The convective showers south of Lawton appear to be struggling, for now.

Tornado watch incoming per Aaron Brackett as a couple of storms are forming out by Lawton and Chickasha

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Brackett/status/1520158588026736641

Watch is being issued by 5pm. Likely will be entire I-35 corridor.

17430

Watch is being issued by 5pm. Likely will be entire I-35 corridor.

Driving on Kilpatrick, thermometer reads 86. There’s some clouds bubbling up to the west.

Driving on Kilpatrick, thermometer reads 86. There’s some clouds bubbling up to the west.

Satellite imagery right now is absolutely textbook for a conditional spring severe weather event. Stratus deck in Eastern OK, clear skies in Central OK, shallow cumulus field bubbling up along the dryline, couple of storms struggling to break the cap in South Central OK, massive wildfire in NW OK behind the dryline.

There's the watch, and language about...DVD sized hail?

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1520160845736554496

There's the watch, and language about...DVD sized hail?

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1520160845736554496

Did they mean to say something else? Interesting they used a 2d object to describe a 3d thing.

Never seen that before. It should list grapefruit as that is traditional object comparison for that large of hail. The watch has 50% probability of 1 or more EF2+ tornadoes.

HRRR is onboard with dryline development, specifically honing in on at least 1 supercell impacting C OK.

Definitely some agitation in the cumulus field. Caddo County is the area I’m focusing on in particular for development. *If* development occurs in this area, it would likely grow upscale and affect the OKC Metro. As Anonymous said, the HRRR is onboard with this solution.

Storm near Binger bears watching, heading toward SW corner of Canadian County and given general track would probably carry it toward OKC if it pokes through the cap.

Storm near Binger bears watching, heading toward SW corner of Canadian County and given general track would probably carry it toward OKC if it pokes through the cap.

Meh, looks like it kicked up, but ran out of steam. Still there, but seems to have lost some momentum.

Meh, looks like it kicked up, but ran out of steam. Still there, but seems to have lost some momentum.

The one south of thar blip is picking up a bit now.

Driving on Kilpatrick, thermometer reads 86. There’s some clouds bubbling up to the west.

Looks like they’re struggling though… I was looking at one section going up fast, thinking “this is going to be bad” but it just fizzled off.

Looks like they’re struggling though… I was looking at one section going up fast, thinking “this is going to be bad” but it just fizzled off.

I’m sitting at the Love’s in Newcastle and pretty sure I saw the same exact tower. Looked like it was gonna do it for about five minutes…now, not so much.

Altus hit 100F today. W OK is just desert now, change my mind.

I may be misreading this, but looking at radar, the storms that fire up just to the west start to get rolling, but as they get closer to C OK they seem to lose steam...

Yes the towers are getting destroyed as soon as they get up. CU field is also dying right now along the dryline in C OK.

Another victory for the cap! HRRR probably wishing it didn't give in to peer pressure from the other models. :)

I think SPC got spooked by those initial attempts to break the cap so they issued tornado watch.

Yep, threat is over for the OKC Metro as far as I can tell. Confident enough that I just finished driving over from Newcastle to Norman for the Norman Music Fest.

This was unironically one of the more interesting weather days I can remember for the OKC Metro. I’m sure it’ll come up in some research papers down the line.