I will never understand why they send chasers out so early for storms that probably won't even start until 8pm. I'm sure it's all for the TV hit at 4pm but still I could leave at 6 from OKC and in position tonight if anything does form in Tulsa.

Early ensemble models make next weekend look interesting - another dryline setup but perhaps with more instability and not as strong of a cap as this past week. Still a ways out but worth watching.

Anybody else here get concerned with how dry and hot it has been so far this spring? I’m having to fire up the sprinklers tonight as we have dirt cracks around the house. I know it’s early but I feel like we’ve been on the wrong side of the dry line a lot this year.

Very dependent on where you are in the state. OKC and westward has been drier than normal. Tulsa and Eastern OK has been pretty normal. Far eastern OK into Arkansas has been wetter than normal. All within a span of a few hundred miles.

Very dependent on where you are in the state. OKC and westward has been drier than normal. Tulsa and Eastern OK has been pretty normal. Far eastern OK into Arkansas has been wetter than normal. All within a span of a few hundred miles.

Oklahoma is pretty much the battleground between the Western US trending drier than normal and the Eastern US trending wetter than normal.

I will never understand why they send chasers out so early for storms that probably won't even start until 8pm. I'm sure it's all for the TV hit at 4pm but still I could leave at 6 from OKC and in position tonight if anything does form in Tulsa.

As someone who goes out and intercepts storms (I'm way too much of an amateur to actually call it chasing), I'd much prefer scrolling through my phone in a gas station parking lot for an hour or two than frantically trying to catch up to a storm that's already in progress. I'm sure that goes double for the actual professionals who need to get good footage for [insert news station here].

90% of the time I would agree but on a day like today where it's pretty cut and dry storms are going to go up around 9pm which the are by the way. Really no need to be out there at 4 when it's only an hour drive.

Oklahoma is pretty much the battleground between the Western US trending drier than normal and the Eastern US trending wetter than normal.

I was in very far SW Oklahoma today and it is stunningly dry. They need rain BAD.

I was in very far SW Oklahoma today and it is stunningly dry. They need rain BAD.

It’s nuts. Pretty much everywhere west of US-183 (south of Seiling) / US-281 (north of Seiling) is at 3” of precipitation or less over the last six months. Even OKC proper is only around 6-8”.

^Drought map tells the tale. Drove from OKC into Extreme area then down to Exceptional. Looks like a tinder box.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?South

^Drought map tells the tale. Drove from OKC into Extreme area then down to Exceptional. Looks like a tinder box.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?South

Then drive to SE OK and it looks like a lush rainforest

Good rain chances a few times this week. Definitely higher east (what’s new) but most of the state should see much-needed precip Wednesday and again Saturday.

Some weak showers and storms are coming out of the TX PH and into SW OK. These should slowly spread E this afternoon. Could get a quick drink here in OKC, but the best shot is along the Red River.

Slight Risk for S into NE OK tomorrow for storms to develop. Chance is low, but exists.

The HRRR has nothing for the Metro tomorrow. The Nam 3k has one maybe 2 storms very close to the Metro. Any storm that goes up might be bad no probably will be bad but I think it's going to come down to how much the atmosphere can recover after morning clouds. Also how much moisture we get. No real rain again today cause our dewpoints were in the 40s so everything is so high based.

Today similar to Friday. Looks like majority will not see any storms. Best shot is out toward Tulsa and maybe a supercell going up near I-40 E of OKC.

The Weather Channel app has (thankfully) cut the rain chance for Sunday in half to about 40% - seeing the same thing, Anonymous, etc.? Hoping for a relatively dry marathon.

Yes right now it looks okay for the run, maybe some rain/storms late Saturday night that technically bleeds into Sunday. But the timing is hard to tell this far out.

Tornado Watch coming for E OK. Dryline has nice cumulus field W of Tulsa area. Big time hail threat.


Looks like OKC hit a new record high today with 92F.

Freaking 95 degrees in the middle of April.

Has to be close to a record.

Tornado Watch coming for E OK. Dryline has nice cumulus field W of Tulsa area. Big time hail threat.


Looks like OKC hit a new record high today with 92F.



Towers W of Tulsa got capped off. Looks like no development for there either. Maybe a cell or two fire up in extreme E OK heading into sunset.

What’s with the cap this year? Third system that has looked promising but fizzled out due to through strong cap.

Fingers crossed we get a big rain event this weekend

As I said yesterday the atmosphere had to recover and it did not. Yes there was a cap also but at 3 pm today Tulsa was still 68 degrees and mostly cloudy with a low cloud deck.

I am hating this wind. Also the extreme bi-polar temps. Both of these have been brutal this year.

This spring has been about as disappointing as a I can remember for some time. The wind, the dry air, the lack of rain, and the allergies suck this year! The only redeeming quality is the fact that it isn't below freezing anymore.

I just hope may transitions to a more active pattern with plenty of rain.

Agreed with the above. The wind has been especially bad this spring, and the drought is taking back most of C OK. South of Norman area is an exception where they are above normal due to some training thunderstorm development earlier this season.

In general, C OK is around 60-70% of normal rainfall this spring. Most of W OK is around 30%. Meanwhile E OK is on pace for a top 30 wettest springs so far.

This spring has been about as disappointing as a I can remember for some time. The wind, the dry air, the lack of rain, and the allergies suck this year! The only redeeming quality is the fact that it isn't below freezing anymore.

I just hope may transitions to a more active pattern with plenty of rain.

Yes my allergies have caused some inner ear infection issues this season which has been unpleasant to say the least.

Yeah I've always had fairly rough allergy and sinus issues but the last two years seem to be worse than ever before.

Things are so bad this spring that our local storm chasers are chasing tornadic storms in Kansas at the moment. Gotta get those ratings!

Saturday night, line of storms fires up directly over the middle of the state. Damaging winds is highest severe threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2022042212/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_36.png

^ Yeah was going to say, finally feeling reasonably confident about OKC’s precipitation drought ending tomorrow evening. Still looks like a whole lot of nothing for Western OK, unfortunately.

Next weekend is starting to look reasonably interesting in terms of storm chances, as well.

I dunno. The Nam3km has the tiniest line of storms coming through this weekend. We may break the precipitation drought, but it won't be my much. These narrow lined-out storms systems seem somewhat unusual for this time of year.

HRRR has some pretty solid development east of roughly a Ponca City to El Reno to Lawton line tomorrow evening. This is the short-range model I tend to favor at the moment as IMO it has pretty much nailed all of our events (and non-events) over the past six weeks. We’ll see. It’s going to be a close call but I do think there’s going to be just enough lift to break the cap right around sunset tomorrow.

Did want to mention as well that the storms will likely clear out of the Metro in more than enough time for the marathon to go off Sunday Morning with no issues. Will update if that changes.

Right now I have to lean towards HRRR because it has nailed the last 2 days correctly.

HRRR seems to have changed a bit this morning and is favoring a broader area of large thunderstorms with a potential for tornadoes. It seems like there is a line of storms earlier in the day that aren’t projected to make it far enough south to zap the energy in the atmosphere like yesterday. Is that a fair assessment?

Hmm. Strong cap in place from this mornings sounding, however. That is unfortunate. Hopefully we can get enough heating today to break it. Story of the season so far.

Thunderstorms ongoing in the Tulsa metro northward this morning

Messy setup this evening as multiple rounds of thunderstorms appear possible from approximately 6 p.m. until whenever the cold front moves through overnight. A relative lack of instability should limit the potential for a more significant event, but there will be enough shear to support large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes with any storms that can stay discrete.

Tornado Watch is out. Supercells have fired up directly west of I-35. Large hail is main threat. Tornado potential is there for isolated storms.

Tornado sirens have resumed sounding in Stillwater as of 7:30 pm with tornado warning until 7:45 pm. But it looks like the worst part of the storm with big hail and possible tornado will pass just to the south and southeast. Things don't look as good for southwest OKC, including the airport area. If in OKC metro check TV stations for what is going on if you haven't already.

Tornado threat is done at this time for everyone west of Sooner Road. I don’t believe anything has actually touched down yet but I guess we’ll see. Threat is certainly still there in the near-term for the Eastern Suburbs.

Tornado threat should be done for the entire Metro at this time. There will possibly be another round of storms overnight; if this happens, would think that large hail would be the main threat from those. Still think that all storms should move out in time for the Marathon though there may still be some lingering showers. Close call on another round tomorrow afternoon but think that one should mostly stay south of the Metro. Even if it does happen, should just be some beneficial rain with minimal severe weather threat.

I am hating this wind. Also the extreme bi-polar temps. Both of these have been brutal this year.

See, I thought this was one of the windiest Springs I can remember in a long time. But I didn't have the data to back up the claim. Despite visiting Mesonet multiple times/day, I only recently stumbled across the "Mesonet Ticker" which is like an analysis/blog/fun post about recent weather info. Here for reference: http://ticker.mesonet.org/

A recent post on the ticker had a historic wind speed graph. As you can see, 2022 was on of THE windiest periods in the last 15 years!!

https://i.imgur.com/bfBJlXN.png

^

Thanks for that, very interesting.

The forecast for next week looks like more of the same. Getting very old.

That was a close call last night for the Metro. Not sure why it didn't happen but I think the Cloud base might of been a little to high to get things really going.

Veer/back/veer saved us. Winds going different directions in the upper levels kept the storms from really tightening up. Definitely got lucky, those could've been really nasty.

Looking like another unsettled pattern toward the end of the week. Daily storm chances starting Wednesday

See, I thought this was one of the windiest Springs I can remember in a long time. But I didn't have the data to back up the claim. Despite visiting Mesonet multiple times/day, I only recently stumbled across the "Mesonet Ticker" which is like an analysis/blog/fun post about recent weather info. Here for reference: http://ticker.mesonet.org/


A recent post on the ticker had a historic wind speed graph. As you can see, 2022 was on of THE windiest periods in the last 15 years!!

https://i.imgur.com/bfBJlXN.png

I’ve seen this before and it’s pretty crazy. That being said, I feel like the highs/lows for 2022 would average out to be not all that different than the long-term average. In other words, comparing daily wind gusts with an average curve over a long time period will always look like this.

Much-needed rainfall across the state especially in the southwest. Unfortunately the west and northwest didn’t get much at all but might see better chances this week. The southeast continues to be like a rainforest.

http://m.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

See, I thought this was one of the windiest Springs I can remember in a long time. But I didn't have the data to back up the claim. Despite visiting Mesonet multiple times/day, I only recently stumbled across the "Mesonet Ticker" which is like an analysis/blog/fun post about recent weather info. Here for reference: http://ticker.mesonet.org/

A recent post on the ticker had a historic wind speed graph. As you can see, 2022 was on of THE windiest periods in the last 15 years!!

https://i.imgur.com/bfBJlXN.png

2009 and 2011 were La Nina years also I believe.

2009 and 2011 were La Nina years also I believe.

2011 had one of the coldest and snowiest months on record (February) and one of the hottest and driest (August).

If you want to compare the daily average wind speed, not the average maximum as above, that's also doable. Not sure why the legend didn't work, but the red line in the middle is the 2007-2022 statewide average daily wind speed. You can see that this April is pretty impressive. I don't recall 2009's winds but it was obviously a pretty strong year too. 2011's winds must have really helped dry us out heading into that drought? That was a miserable summer...

EDIT. I have a cool chart to add but I can't get it to add (from three browsers!). Make your own here: Mesonet Long-Term Averages (https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/mesonet_averages_graphs#series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_a v%3Acurrent%3AN%3A0%3A%23000000%3AN%3A1&series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_mx%3Aaverage%3AN%3A5%3A%2 3990000%3AN%3A1&series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_av%3Aaverage%3AN%3A5%3A%2 3006600%3AN%3A1&series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_mn%3Aaverage%3AN%3A5%3A%2 3000066%3AN%3A1)

Nice to see the data backing up the absurdity of the wind this Spring. Last night there was almost no wind when I went outside and it was such a strange feeling after basically 20+ straight days of high wind.

N winds this morning should taper off this afternoon and into this evening. Tomorrow looks amazing as we have a wind shift happen ahead of next storm system. Winds will pick back up from the S on Wednesday and we will be back to regularly scheduled 25mph winds.

SPC outlining 15% risk of severe storms on Friday.

If you want to compare the daily average wind speed, not the average maximum as above, that's also doable. Not sure why the legend didn't work, but the red line in the middle is the 2007-2022 statewide average daily wind speed. You can see that this April is pretty impressive. I don't recall 2009's winds but it was obviously a pretty strong year too. 2011's winds must have really helped dry us out heading into that drought? That was a miserable summer...

EDIT. I have a cool chart to add but I can't get it to add (from three browsers!). Make your own here: Mesonet Long-Term Averages (https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/mesonet_averages_graphs#series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_a v%3Acurrent%3AN%3A0%3A%23000000%3AN%3A1&series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_mx%3Aaverage%3AN%3A5%3A%2 3990000%3AN%3A1&series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_av%3Aaverage%3AN%3A5%3A%2 3006600%3AN%3A1&series%5B%5D=nrmn%3Atair_mn%3Aaverage%3AN%3A5%3A%2 3000066%3AN%3A1)

Here is the chart from LakeEffect:

HTTP://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/2022wind.png

Oh brother, here we go with the May 3rd comparisons regarding Friday. Its like May 3rd is the only day in recorded history that had a major tornado. Hopefully the cap holds and we get nothing at all. All we need is to give these guys more doom fuel for the next 10 years.

Oh brother, here we go with the May 3rd comparisons regarding Friday. Its like May 3rd is the only day in recorded history that had a major tornado. Hopefully the cap holds and we get nothing at all. All we need is to give these guys more doom fuel for the next 10 years.

What is the context of this?

FYI for anyone that doesn't remember May 3 1999 - the day started with a Slight Risk across the Plains. Then Oklahoma was upgraded to Moderate when the clouds cleared. And by storm initiation the moderate was replaced with High. It happened very fast. The significance of that day was not seen until the event was basically occurring.

What is the context of this?

FYI for anyone that doesn't remember May 3 1999 - the day started with a Slight Risk across the Plains. Then Oklahoma was upgraded to Moderate when the clouds cleared. And by storm initiation the moderate was replaced with High. It happened very fast. The significance of that day was not seen until the event was basically occurring.

A certain local tv meteorologist is already making those comparisons on twitter. You can probably guess who.

Sure its fun for "weather nerds" to talk about analogs, but when your a public figure you need to be more careful with your wording since most of the public takes everything you say literally.

A certain local tv meteorologist is already making those comparisons on twitter. You can probably guess who.

Sure its fun for "weather nerds" to talk about analogs, but when your a public figure you need to be more careful with your wording since most of the public takes everything you say literally.

To be fair, fridays setup is starting to look really interesting. A strong cap is currently expected to be in place over okc, but if the timing works out, there is a potential for strong to severe storms to develop. IMO, it could be a more favorable environment compared to this past weekend.

What is the context of this?

FYI for anyone that doesn't remember May 3 1999 - the day started with a Slight Risk across the Plains. Then Oklahoma was upgraded to Moderate when the clouds cleared. And by storm initiation the moderate was replaced with High. It happened very fast. The significance of that day was not seen until the event was basically occurring.

Weather technology has improved a little bit since then too

What I read jn1780 as saying is no one needs to start talking comparisons to a terribly destructive storm five days ahead. If it looks like it could be a repeat of a previous storm the day before that's plenty of coverage/warning in this day and time of everyone carrying a news source in their pocket.

Friday is definitely looking like a conditional day. Kansas will probably see storms firing. Just depends on how far down the dryline that storms can break the cap.

Great seeing actual rain in the OK Panhandle into SW Kansas tonight