Will it be futile to try and negotiate with Russia given it's staunch denial they never planned to invade? Then, a few weeks later....they invade.

Negotiate for what?

Negotiate for what?

A halt to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, presumably....

A halt to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, presumably....
Correct.

It sounded like the question was as if the USA was negotiating with them, and that's why I was confused, considering the Putin administrations stance.

I don't know how the Ukrainians can in good faith negotiate with the Russian Government. They are liars and criminals.

This isn't going to end until Ukraine gives up by either Zelensky being removed and a puppet government is installed (which I don't think the citizens will go along with), or Putin is removed. I personally don't feel Putin will retreat and give up.

If Ukraine exists after this, they will be joining NATO asap.

this thread is ok so far and i hope it stays that way... just a gentle reminder to avoid straying into politics and to stick to discussing current events.

This isn't going to end until Ukraine gives up by either Zelensky being removed and a puppet government is installed (which I don't think the citizens will go along with), or Putin is removed. I personally don't feel Putin will retreat and give up.

If Ukraine exists after this, they will be joining NATO asap.

I agree with most of this. In my completely expert opinion of no experience, I see a popular uprising in Russia as being a more likely end to this. As volunteers from Europe and N. America get involved, as more deadly weapons are provided to the Ukrainians, as fatigue, motivation, large-scale losses, bodies/dog-tags returning to Russia, economic reality on the younger Russian generations, etc really set in, I see a Russian refusal to fight as a more realistic scenario. If any important territory can be recaptured away from the Russians, that may be the first domino falling.

i ran across this youtube video the other day and thought it was a fascinating analysis. this is a 2018 evaluation of russian strategic culture by a retired finnish intelligence colonel:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw

I agree with most of this. In my completely expert opinion of no experience, I see a popular uprising in Russia as being a more likely end to this. As volunteers from Europe and N. America get involved, as more deadly weapons are provided to the Ukrainians, as fatigue, motivation, large-scale losses, bodies/dog-tags returning to Russia, economic reality on the younger Russian generations, etc really set in, I see a Russian refusal to fight as a more realistic scenario. If any important territory can be recaptured away from the Russians, that may be the first domino falling.

I think what will eventually happen is that Russians eventually give up trying to advance and they hang on to the eastern parts of Ukraine they already captured. They will never give up Crimea, they see that as a death sentence if they lose the naval base.

Could go on for months/years in this stalemate condition. They will attempt to reduce the effects of sanctions by getting closer to China. The world isn't going to do anything to China economically that would make a difference.

Seems doubtful Putin gets overthrown. Russians had it rough under Stalin and he managed to stay around. However, they didn't have McDonalds or Starbucks back then, maybe that will be the difference.

The video above is fascinating and fills in some gaps in my thoughts of Russia. Watch it if you have time.

This isn't going to end until Ukraine gives up by either Zelensky being removed and a puppet government is installed (which I don't think the citizens will go along with), or Putin is removed. I personally don't feel Putin will retreat and give up.

If Ukraine exists after this, they will be joining NATO asap.

It is not exactly certain that this ends with a puppet government being installed, maybe somewhat more likely if they had done so around 2014 with minimal casualties, but Ukrainians views of Russia seem to have been getting much worse over the 8 years they have been in conflict with them. The way they are conducting this invasion is hardly winning them friends among the population.

i mean, my thoughts are that the only way this ends is by Putin no longer being in power. sure if the resistance to the invasion is severely depleted, we might see some lulls in the fighting (maybe even for a few years), but these people do not want to be part of Russia. And it still looks like most of the Russian people don't want to be involved in this either. But i don't see a real end until Putin either decides to pull back (don't think he ever will) or he is no longer in power in Russia.

It's really going to be interesting if this hostility does convince Sweden and Finland to join Nato, as Putin has always made threats of invasion there in the past if they did, but now looks like he could consider that option even if they didn't.

From the Moscow perspective, i really think this comes down to Putin wanting to cement his legacy as one of the all time great Russian Leaders. And i think the end result will be a much more unified Europe against them.

At a certain point, I would think the Russians will want the Starbucks locations to reopen.

I'm sure they probably have some knockoffs (like their own version of Black Rifle), but you just can't beat the OG. And, taste buds tend to cut through propaganda.

At a certain point, I would think the Russians will want the Starbucks locations to reopen.

I'm sure they probably have some knockoffs (like their own version of Black Rifle), but you just can't beat the OG. And, taste buds tend to cut through propaganda.

Young Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg are very much westernized. Russians survived Stalin but not those Russians. Russia is quickly turning into a massive North Korea and l just don't see people putting up with this.

Russian culture is different than ours. It is important to keep that in mind when trying to relate to them as a whole. Something like 80% of the older population consume state sponsored media, which is obviously propaganda. The younger generation that get's their information online, it's basically reversed.

I just left a meeting with Congressman Lucas. He says that they believe that Putin will eventually negotiate and get what he wants. Remember he is a former KGB guy who was in Berlin when they tore down the wall. He is resolved to recreate the soviet Union.

I just left a meeting with Congressman Lucas. He says that they believe that Putin will eventually negotiate and get what he wants. Remember he is a former KGB guy who was in Berlin when they tore down the wall. He is resolved to recreate the soviet Union.

What does he think Putin wants? Ukraine is not going to accept what Putin "wants".

What does he think Putin wants? Ukraine is not going to accept what Putin "wants".

He said that he Putin believes that if he keeps hammering Ukraine they will give up certain areas of the country to him.

He said that he Putin believes that if he keeps hammering Ukraine they will give up certain areas of the country to him.

Why would Putin settle for that? He already had nominal control of DNR and LNR and now he has suffered massive losses for nothing more than he already had? Everything I've read is that Putin wants a regime change in Ukraine to bring them back into Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see Ukraine accepting that.

Why would Putin settle for that? He already had nominal control of DNR and LNR and now he has suffered massive losses for nothing more than he already had? Everything I've read is that Putin wants a regime change in Ukraine to bring them back into Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see Ukraine accepting that.

Who knows what he will do. You are right though. He does want to install his own people. He wants to restore the Soviet Union. Personally I think he has lost his mind, what little he had left anyway.

Why would Putin settle for that? He already had nominal control of DNR and LNR and now he has suffered massive losses for nothing more than he already had? Everything I've read is that Putin wants a regime change in Ukraine to bring them back into Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see Ukraine accepting that.

And I highly doubt that "Congress" believes that either.

i removed several posts that devolved into bickering. you can question each other without being jerks about it. if i have to do this again, then the thread gets closed.

Why would Putin settle for that? He already had nominal control of DNR and LNR and now he has suffered massive losses for nothing more than he already had? Everything I've read is that Putin wants a regime change in Ukraine to bring them back into Russia's sphere of influence. I don't see Ukraine accepting that.

Land bridge to Crimea. Keeping that naval base is critical to Russia.

At some point, even Putin will realize they have zero chance of overthrowing the regime. They have barely threated Kiev with ground forces, they certainly don't have the numbers to capture it without leveling it to the ground which would salt the Earth diplomatically for them for decades.

Putin will try to invent himself an off ramp. For example, "We blew up the United States bioweapons and demilitarized Ukraine, mission accomplished!" Won't be true, but it won't really matter.

i removed several posts that devolved into bickering. you can question each other without being jerks about it. if i have to do this again, then the thread gets closed.

Thank You!

This was part of an internal email this morning. "As outlined to you in an earlier email, we are noticing a large amount in traffic attempting to access/hack our network. We have been notified by the FBI and Homeland Security that this traffic is expected to increase and become more aggressive as Russia strikes back for western sanctions." Looks like the Russians are back to hacking.