Well above average temperatures through Saturday under downslope flow. Shortwave trough looks to eject in the Saturday Night to Sunday timeframe. With strong southwest flow aloft, this is a favorable setup for severe weather; however, given that it’s early March I wouldn’t be surprised to see the main threat occur just to the east of the Metro. Still something that’s worth keeping an eye on over the next several days. Shortwave looks to be accompanied by a fairly strong cold front that should lead to below average temperatures next week.

Fire danger increasing as we head toward the weekend. Ahead of the next storm system, Saturday will be the windiest day, but still mild.

Sunday afternoon looks like a solid shot at storm chances. The following week looks much cooler with highs near 50.

Winter's last stand? A weak storm swinging through before the weekend will give us a shot at some snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022030712/gem_asnow_scus_19.png

Cold front moves into tomorrow and switches us to north winds. Then some snow moves in late night in a weak band from W to E across the state. Minimal impacts are expected, just the usual with bridges and overpasses etc.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022030918/nam3km_asnow_scus_53.png

Decent banding redevelopment over C OK may squeak out another inch. The wind makes this snow brutal.

Low in the teens tonight. Sharp rebound tomorrow into Sunday with returning south winds. Next week looks fantastic!

Next severe weather chances this week eastern OK on Monday and central/eastern OK on Thursday

Tomorrow 3-17 might be a bit of a sleeper day for Severe Weather. A lot of spin in the atmosphere. Just at a quick glance haven't had time to really dive in yet. Hopefully Anonymous will give his thoughts.

Nothing too crazy expected for OKC. A few severe storms near the RR is probable. Any slight shift in track could bring that chance closer into OKC, but as for now SPC as a Marginal risk for C OK with Hail as primary threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022031612/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_39.png

Latest HRRR is showing some nice looking storms from OKC and down I-35. Low pressure tracking right over south central Oklahoma. Lots of turning with height. However not sure if the moisture return is going to be good enough for something other than maybe a few hail storms.

Track continues to shift around some every so slightly. Bringing OKC right on the edge of SPC's SLIGHT risk. Hail would be primary threat, 2% probability of a tornado associated with any discrete cells.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022031712/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

Severe Thunder Storm watch is out for C into SE OK.

Significant hail in some of these storms moving across the metro. Roofers are gonna be busy.

Saturday weather looks amazing with light winds out of the south, low 70s.

Sunday the obnoxious wind comes back ahead of next storm, which will bring rain and storms to majority of OK beginning Monday evening.

Really needed rain chances go up tomorrow afternoon. Could see flash flood watches posted for E half of state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2022032012/rgem_apcpn_scus_60.png

Tornado risk is not zero for southern Oklahoma down by the Red River today Monday March 21st

Latest HRRR showing solid 1-2" swaths for the E 2/3 of the state. Any severe chances will be this evening after a break in the early-afternoon rain. Potential for some clearing down into SW OK where some storms could get fired up and push east in a line.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022032113/hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

Finally getting a good soaker today, just in time for the start of spring.

Hopefully this will knock down the fire danger for a while.

0.98" so far at our house near 9th & Bryant in Edmond (2:08 pm).

0.98" so far at our house near 9th & Bryant in Edmond (2:08 pm).

I just looked at our back yard on camera. Looks like Lake Robertson. That's near Hefner & Council.

Final batch of rain and storms is coming up from the SW now. Could see up to another inch from this.

High parameter tornado watch is out across C TX.

Much of Oklahoma got at least an inch with Oklahoma City area probably the most as of 8:15 pm.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

Strong N winds sweeping across the state today on backside of the storm system. Luckily fire danger is decreased with the plentiful rainfall we just received.

Temperatures moderate heading into the EOW and the weekend looks beautiful.

Yeah... That little blue slot in South Central Oklahoma is a heartbreaker for me..... Got a lot of plants and a pond there that need some water and there was plenty on both sides to share...... 1/2" is nice but last year I had a pond going over both spillways at this point.

Next storm system moves in around the 30th. Right now looks similar to the one that just moved through so severe weather is likely. Then another, colder system around the 3rd that looks like a rain event with snow in CO/KS

Hang on people. Next Tuesday is looking pretty good for storms. The media hype train might be full swing sooner than later. That being said take a deep breath it's still a week away and will change every 6 hours between now and than.

Is this cloud cover expected to break this afternoon?

Hang on people. Next Tuesday is looking pretty good for storms. The media hype train might be full swing sooner than later. That being said take a deep breath it's still a week away and will change every 6 hours between now and than.
I think you may need the deep breath, lol.

I think you may need the deep breath, lol.

LOL I'm breathing well today cause we are going to be capped. Thank you for your concern. Check with me tomorrow when things change again and I need a defibrillator. :)

SPC has put a slight risk out already for the western half of Oklahoma for Tuesday 3-29-22. Deep Breath :)

Yes, temperatures will be above normal heading into next week. High fire danger for Monday-Tuesday with strong S winds ahead of the storm.

Looking like it might be an I-35 eastern Oklahoma event with a strong cap holding across western Oklahoma. It's only Saturday it will change again but that is how it's looking to me right now.

Timing also might be an issue with this system. This systems might have a lot of issues to overcome. Timing, Cap, Instability. Now if you know anyone in Mississippi on Wednesday give them the heads up now.

^ kukblue1 pretty much covered it. Looks like severe threat for OKC is not particularly high for late Tuesday evening. We will have an initial 2-5% tornado probability and 15% hail on early storms that stay isolated. We should see storms become relatively linear or clustered and move quickly east.

Will be good to knock some pollen out of the air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022032818/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_35.png

Does look like a pretty good Squall line moving into the metro around 10 with some quick spin up tornadoes possible. Moisture return today a little more than expected. Dewpoints up to 53 in the metro today. Than again as I look Wichita Fall 43 dewpoint. Dallas only 50 dewpoints. So we will see if we can get some deeper moisture in here tomorrow.

HRRR is trending upwards somewhat with regards to both coverage and intensity. Not expecting anything major but probably a decent shot at some strong/severe storms in the Metro between 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. tonight.

HRRR is trending upwards somewhat with regards to both coverage and intensity. Not expecting anything major but probably a decent shot at some strong/severe storms in the Metro between 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. tonight.

Any chance this cap holds and everything stays east of I-35

I don’t think so, if anything the trend has been towards initiation further to the west.

MD is already out for W OK. Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued in the next hour. The CU field is pretty robust and is indicative of numerous points of development along the dryline. So we should see a semi-broken line of storms approach I-35 tonight.

And so, it was issued. Covers all okc metro:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASH ITA

So it’s supposed to storm tonight, right?

Looks like the cap is really holding on for now.

Non-severe storms moving into the Metro currently. These are rather disorganized and would not expect them to intensify much. Best chance for severe weather is likely around Norman and points SE as the area of storms down there looks more promising, and has been shown by the HRRR to become the dominant portion of the complex as the night goes on.

Cap over the metro was strong. Strong storm Down by rush springs at 10pm needs to be watched.

It's almost comical how Tinker always gets missed by rain storms. Pathetic, and amazing the area around it hasn't fried, since it hardly gets any rain. There is a small gap in storms, and it will, of course, avoid Mid-Del completely.

Thank you for the updates. I check this forum before bad weather forecasts. Keep up the good work.

The broken line part was OKC.

So what happen? I got a trace of rain over by outlet mall. I know the computers models late were treading towards a broken line but nothing like the morning runs. I assume either the cap was too strong or the were just too elevated. We need to be taking a serious look at computer models or tone now the narrative a bit.

IMO, the HRRR pretty much nailed the event last night. It showed a broken line of storms with most of the action near and south of I-40, which is largely what happened as Norman and points south got hit, while a weaker/disorganized area of storms moved through NW OKC. The north end of the main area of storms was maybe 20-25 miles further south of what was modeled and ultimately you’re never going to have a perfect modeling of conditions with current technology so all things considered, I don’t think a 20-25 mile error is bad at all. There’s a reason why SPC Outlooks show the probability of severe weather occurring within a 25 mile radius of any given point.

IMO, the HRRR pretty much nailed the event last night. It showed a broken line of storms with most of the action near and south of I-40, which is largely what happened as Norman and points south got hit, while a weaker/disorganized area of storms moved through NW OKC. The north end of the main area of storms was maybe 20-25 miles further south of what was modeled and ultimately you’re never going to have a perfect modeling of conditions with current technology so all things considered, I don’t think a 20-25 mile error is bad at all. There’s a reason why SPC Outlooks show the probability of severe weather occurring within a 25 mile radius of any given point.

I'll agree towards the middle of the day it did a great job but the 24 hours before not so much. All the more reason we need to wait the morning of the event to be putting out charts and maps. JMO

Looks like a quick clipper-type system will have a shot at bringing us some rain and storms Friday night. We need the rain right now. Otherwise Saturday looks fantastic with light winds and 70s. Sunday the strong south winds begin cranking up again ahead of another system.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022033106/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png