Starting February thread as this upcoming event will fall within.

Canadian and GFS models both agree large storm will impact the plains beginning Wednesday. Obviously it is too early to talk about tracks or amounts. But we do know the drought conditions across the west half of OK and into TX will play a role in this. One thing that does look pretty certain at this time is these will be coldest temps of the season so far. We could see air temps near and below zero heading into the following days, and extreme levels of this cold where any snowpack may be.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_22.png

I REALLY pray this one is a bust. I'm short staffed due to protocols and much ice/snow would shut our facility down which technically would put me in breach of contract.

This is going to be spicy.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022013018/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

I REALLY pray this one is a bust. I'm short staffed due to protocols and much ice/snow would shut our facility down which technically would put me in breach of contract.

We need the moisture BAD. If this plays out it could put a serious dent in the drought especially with the rain ahead of the ice/snow

We need the moisture BAD. If this plays out it could put a serious dent in the drought especially with the rain ahead of the ice/snow
I understand that. But Snow/ice makes me and my crew work nonstop 24/7 until the event is over. Liquid moisture I'm 100% for. And remember 10 inches of snow is equal to 1 inch of rain.

Sure don't need the ice.

Winter Storm Watch is out for almost the entire state covering from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

Models are in pretty good agreement about precipitation being rain/drizzle Tuesday night which eventually turns into freezing rain and sleet at some point Wednesday. However, there is some wide variation in how deep the cold air mass is across the models. Thus, a classic winter storm forecast for Oklahoma, nearly impossible to tell until it is imminent. So of course just pay attention to updates every 6 hours, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

As for snow totals, a couple forecast models are anticipating a prolonged snow event for Late Wed into Thurs after an initial blast of freezing rain and sleet/snow mix. This would be from a classic 'wrap-around' snow on the backside of the main low. However, dry air cutting off moisture flow is a very high risk with these storms and it could basically eliminate any measurable snow being produced. Nowcast situation will be done on this scenario, but you can look into NW TX and into the PH to see the health of that play out.

We could see some Ice Storm Warnings added to the fray for localized areas (especially SE of I-44) and also could see some localized Blizzard warnings for areas on the flipside.

One thing is a guarantee, it will be very cold and windchills for Thursday and Friday will be dangerous. The weekend will likely see some areas near air temps of zero if there is a decent snowpack in place.

I am flying out Wednesday AM. Should I try to change my flight to Tuesday or is this something that Will Rogers can handle w/o disruption?

I would think Wednesday AM departures will run okay. But by afternoon, delays will likely mount. WRWA is really bad at winter weather.

I would think Wednesday AM departures will run okay. But by afternoon, delays will likely mount. WRWA is really bad at winter weather.

Thanks

Winter Storm Watch is out for almost the entire state covering from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

Models are in pretty good agreement about precipitation being rain/drizzle Tuesday night which eventually turns into freezing rain and sleet at some point Wednesday. However, there is some wide variation in how deep the cold air mass is across the models. Thus, a classic winter storm forecast for Oklahoma, nearly impossible to tell until it is imminent. So of course just pay attention to updates every 6 hours, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

As for snow totals, a couple forecast models are anticipating a prolonged snow event for Late Wed into Thurs after an initial blast of freezing rain and sleet/snow mix. This would be from a classic 'wrap-around' snow on the backside of the main low. However, dry air cutting off moisture flow is a very high risk with these storms and it could basically eliminate any measurable snow being produced. Nowcast situation will be done on this scenario, but you can look into NW TX and into the PH to see the health of that play out.

We could see some Ice Storm Warnings added to the fray for localized areas (especially SE of I-44) and also could see some localized Blizzard warnings for areas on the flipside.

One thing is a guarantee, it will be very cold and windchills for Thursday and Friday will be dangerous. The weekend will likely see some areas near air temps of zero if there is a decent snowpack in place.

as always thank you

I'll head to the store today for bread and milk. It has been a while.

Category Four French Toast situation for sure lol.

Did anyone else feel the earthquake like 8min ago?
I did downtown.

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1488198500881948687?s=20&t=FkNWt2ORefZmuzUDk46jVw

Yep. NW36th and Penn.

Did anyone else feel the earthquake like 8min ago?
I did downtown.

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1488198500881948687?s=20&t=FkNWt2ORefZmuzUDk46jVw

4.5 at Medford

I'll head to the store today for bread and milk. It has been a while.

Milk sandwich? Gross

Love the OK Mesonet
17319

Just to show how all over the place these models are, the latest GFS run has us getting ~10 inches(!) of snow by Saturday, while the NAM has us closer to 3. Any snow more than a couple inches is obviously enough to shut things down for a while here, but that's a big difference.

Also not thrilled about the odds of power outages given the ice+wind possibility

Just to show how all over the place these models are, the latest GFS run has us getting ~10 inches(!) of snow by Saturday, while the NAM has us closer to 3. Any snow more than a couple inches is obviously enough to shut things down for a while here, but that's a big difference.

Also not thrilled about the odds of power outages given the ice+wind possibility

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2022013112&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2022013112&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=tropicaltidbits also has most all of the models

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2022013112&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

It's tricky - I believe that's 1" of liquid precipitation. At a 10:1 ratio, it would be 10" of snow.

How do you find that GFS information?

Here? I think it shows about 1"?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2022013112&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Yes there, and under the winter weather tab there's a couple of different snowfall calculations, the aforementioned 10:1 ratio or the Kuchera ratios. Both of these have some issues but that's what makes winter forecasting such a crapshoot.

It's tricky - I believe that's 1" of liquid precipitation. At a 10:1 ratio, it would be 10" of snow.

UGH snow fall more than half the time is never 10:1 yet everyone uses it. I think even Mysthbuster did a story about it and said sometimes it's true but everything has to be just perfect.

It covers nearly all of Oklahoma. Meanwhile, temps in the low 70s in central Oklahoma.

Details:
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are possible across Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with the higher amounts possible in
northern Oklahoma. In addition, ice accumulations of around one
tenth of an inch or greater are possible mainly in central and
southeastern Oklahoma. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in
hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Information:
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Yes there, and under the winter weather tab there's a couple of different snowfall calculations, the aforementioned 10:1 ratio or the Kuchera ratios. Both of these have some issues but that's what makes winter forecasting such a crapshoot.

Thank you! I had overlooked that. And thanks to @LakeEffect!

Sorry for the obvious question - I am not accustomed to looking at these maps and trying to get a basic grasp ;)

Update from NWS Norman. Looks like the timing and amounts are still big question marks (and probably will be right up til the event starts):

https://twitter.com/nwsnorman/status/1488270454741770255?s=21

So where did our snowstorm go?!

So where did our snowstorm go?!

Still a lot of if's. Dry air might work in some in the middle levels. Snow system on Thursday might break off from the main system and might not be as strong. Storm might track further south and east. Still a lot of if's

Living here most of my life, when it comes to winter weather and wild forecasts, I've learned to hedge my bets and never underestimate the power of the dry slot. There seems to always be a huge implicit bust risk. We'll see.

17325

Short-range models are trending for NE OK to get the best shot at the most snow. The dryslot implications will determine points to the SW. Last night many models brought in massive pocket of dry air that erodes the snow plume Wednesday night. However, this morning the models are showing this effect less.

Right now I would guess Tulsa and points N and E could see 6"+.
OKC I would guess maybe 3".

Right now the GEM, CAN, and the NAM are forecasting massive dryslot erosion. The HRRR and GFS are both favoring less erosion. If somehow the low closes off the dryslot and we get continuous precipitation along the I-44 corridor, we could see double that in OKC. The gradient will be very tight.

WINTER STORM WARNING:

Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Harper - Hughes - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Woods - Woodward
Effective: Tue, 2/1 9:00pm Updated: Tue, 2/1 12:02pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Thu, 2/3 6:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Likely

Details:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Accumulating snow and ice expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in northwest,
northern, central, and southwest Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. Ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch or
more in portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Northwestern, northern, central, and southern Oklahoma,
and portions of western north Texas
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in
hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Information:
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
In Oklahoma, call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7 for road information. In
Texas, call 8 0 0 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

17327

17327

I can't make out the numbers even after clicking the image. Does this show totals trending upward?

I can't make out the numbers even after clicking the image. Does this show totals trending upward?

I believe{?} it says 10 inches for the metro area.

I believe{?} it says 10 inches for the metro area.

17328 Geez, sorry guys. I can't figure out how to get the image larger.

Here's the link: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2022020118&fh=48&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

This is where Oklahoma's fate lies. This slot of dry air will likely be pushed east and erode the snow plume. The area I circled in black will be where to look for the health of the low pressure center - if that area can remain moisture-rich with continuous development, it could choke off dry air and result in dramatically different outcomes for points NE.

https://i.imgur.com/3Ri39va.png

Around here, my $$ is on the dry slot.

Around here, my $$ is on the dry slot.Yeah, one model shows snow hell but most don't.

All models tonight pretty much eliminate any meaningful snow from the wrap-around. So the initial wave of snow that blows up from NW TX on Wednesday will be the main snow event, then it will be about the frigid temps.

The dryslot is still king of this event. Basically every model is anticipating the dry air moving in from the W and shutting the snow machine off. But there is wide variation of the timing of this. And obviously the slower it is, the more snow that falls.

I would still put OKC around 3-4". Tulsa area around 6" and points east of Tulsa could localize 8-10". I also anticipate a localized area of SC OK getting close to some 6"+ amounts.

Morning and lunchtime data Wednesday will be the best we have for a forecast, then meteorologists will be staring at water vapor imagery for the rest of the afternoon.

Is Spring here yet?

This morning model runs are emphasizing more snow along and just south of I-44 corridor. There is a warm layer of air at higher elevation over a large chunk of the state at this time, so sleet falling could be skewing the models interpretation of heavier snow when it is actually sleet.

Again, the dry air rushing in behind and shutting off the snow is the largest factor in this event for snow totals.

I like the GEM here. Seems pretty reasonable.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2022020212/rgem_asnow_scus_28.png

that would be great

Snow sounds fine. Glad the ice chances have been decreasing

SMH One station sends out a tweet totals going up maybe a foot of snow 2 hours later another station tweets out dry air moving in 3-4 inches. SMH National Weather service 3-5 which they pretty much always have been. They might of been 4-6 at one time but they haven't been all over the place like the tv stations.

SMH One station sends out a tweet totals going up maybe a foot of snow 2 hours later another station tweets out dry air moving in 3-4 inches. SMH National Weather service 3-5 which they pretty much always have been. They might of been 4-6 at one time but they haven't been all over the place like the tv stations.

Is that for OKC? Claiming a foot of snow in OKC is beyond bold.

Is that for OKC? Claiming a foot of snow in OKC is beyond bold. It was for "Central Oklahoma" and by late Thursday. Here it is: 8 AM WINTER STORM UPDATE: Snow gets going this afternoon. The winter storm howls tonight with NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. Data keep uping the totals and some areas in central OK could be near 12" by late Thursday. Take this event seriously and spread the word!

NWS launching special balloons all day. It shows the warm layer aloft is eroding. Which means less ice/sleet chances, and direct-to-snow path is being paved for OKC.

Anon, would it still be fair to say i-44 is becoming a bit of a dividing line in all this?

NWS launching special balloons all day. It shows the warm layer aloft is eroding. Which means less ice/sleet chances, and direct-to-snow path is being paved for OKC.

5-7 still for OKC?

5-7 still for OKC?

NWS currently estimates 4"-6" for the metro; the hourly weather graph is forecasting just over 5" for my location near-ish to the airport between now and 6pm tomorrow. This lines up relatively close to the most recent HRRR and NAM 3km model runs.

Anon, would it still be fair to say i-44 is becoming a bit of a dividing line in all this?

Dividing for what? Snow will accumulate both NW and SE of I-44.



5-7 still for OKC?

I would say that is on the high side. I would guess more 3 NW OKC, maybe a 6 on SE side.


Here is the latest HRRR which includes some remnant wrap-around snow showers that models are wanting to bring back for Thursday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022020218/hrrr_asnow_scus_32.png

Yeah models have definitely uptrended a bit in the last 12 hours as far as snow in the metro area. Course it's all a bit moot since anything north of 3 inches will probably shut things down at least through Thursday.

Snowbanding is getting pretty healthy right now. Constant redevelopment on the W/SW sides of current banding. Hi-Def models show the dryslot making some moves around the 8pm timeframe, so we will have to watch the western edge of the snow for erosion.

Snowbanding is getting pretty healthy right now. Constant redevelopment on the W/SW sides of current banding. Hi-Def models show the dryslot making some moves around the 8pm timeframe, so we will have to watch the western edge of the snow for erosion.

Yeah West metro might get an inch or two less than southeast-east Metro. 1.5 inches airport area in 3 hours so I would think we are heading 3-4 inches for the metro but looking at radar South of Norman is getting slammed Pauls Valley area slammed

Anon, my I-44 question was from earlier in the day when it looked like there could at least be a shot at a "demarc" of sorts along I-44. That clearly didn't happen.

I'm over by airport and have 2.5 inches at 9pm what does everyone else have. Local news keeps saying over 4 inches. I haven't seen anyone with 4 inches in the metro on the NWS chat. I wonder if they are just using radar estimates? Friend near Yukon has 2.6. There was a report on Twitter at 8pm of 2.8 in Moore.

https://twitter.com/iembot_oun/status/1489063999698206728?s=20&t=31Oe1uJkoXAUAbQC9gh2mg 7 inches if you listen to tv media.