I have almost 4.5 in west OKC. A drift of 8-10 inches…I’d rather have none.

Wrap-around snow is trying to get fired up across the TX PH right now. Models show this becoming a decent batch of snow showers as it crosses into OK.

Because the atmosphere is so cold, the snowfall ratio will be much higher and we could see another 1-2 or 3" for anyone caught under the heavier banding.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022020312/hrrr_asnowd_scus_23.png


EDIT: Wrong map posted.

NWS says another 2-3 for north or I40

https://twitter.com/nwsnorman/status/1489269837260107782?s=21

So does anyone have any idea when it is safe to go back to work?

So does anyone have any idea when it is safe to go back to work?

Not sure about safe but my wife and I are going tomorrow.

Not sure about safe but my wife and I are going tomorrow.

I hope your wife and yourself stay safe!

Still snowing at my house.

I have about 5-7 inches and some big drifts!

Still snowing at my house.

I have about 5-7 inches and some big drifts!The wind really swirls in our back yard. We have some drifts about 3 feet tall.

Just got back from a "test" drive from NW 63rd and May area to 19th Street and Telephone Rd area of Moore. Roads, even I-35, are TERRIBLE. I have a Ford Escape AWD, and can get around very well, no slipping and sliding. There were not very many people on the roads, but I saw at least four new accidents as I went down to Moore and back to north OkC. With more snow predicted to come in, I can only imagine what it will be like in the morning. I-35 was maybe one lane of tracks, some areas covered over completely. Took about 45 minutes each way going between 30 and 40 MPH. The lack of other traffic helped. Of course, there are those that blow past you at much higher speeds, but let them pass I say. Drifting along I-35 will be a problem in the morning. The new flyover from Broadway Ext. to Grand/Western was almost impassible for the first one half of the curve due to drifting. Main and side roads are snow packed over ice.

Be safe if you must drive.

The sun will melt the roads by lunch. Black ice threat will be high Friday night from snowmelt runoff.

I hope your wife and yourself stay safe!Thanks. We live near Hefner & Rockwell. I got my wife to work at NW36 & Lincoln this morning at 6:00 and I went on to near the airport with no problem. And today I drove her 2WD Liberty. Wednesday afternoon at 4:00 was way worse and that was my FWD car with traction control and antilock brakes.

Roads are all still snowpacked as of right now. Traction is not bad though, IMO.

Roads are all still snowpacked as of right now. Traction is not bad though, IMO.

This seems one of the rare times we got pure snow, without a base of ice or sleet under it

This seems one of the rare times we got pure snow, without a base of ice or sleet under itYes. But what we're plowing this morning has about 1/4 inch or so of ice underneath. I think the pavement was warm enough Wed evening that the base melted a bit as more snow piled on top. Then froze later. Usually fluffy snow just plows right down to pavement easily. This is being a bit more difficult. But the sun will help a bunch.

Yes. But what we're plowing this morning has about 1/4 inch or so of ice underneath. I think the pavement was warm enough Wed evening that the base melted a bit as more snow piled on top.

Yep, Tevin Wooten on the Weather Channel scraped his boots around in Bricktown and hit hard slush, and that's frozen by now.

One of the odd things about this winter storm was following Mike Morgan's forecast and tweeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. He said the storm would be over by 8:00-8:30 PM on Wednesday. It continued to snow for ~30 hours after that in OKC when the last wave came through in the early early morning hours on Friday.

Meanwhile, his colleagues at KFOR were tweeting the opposite. Models trending upward, 2 day event. Such a weird thing to see a news station putting out their official forecast while the head meteorologist puts out a forecast contradicting that.

Looking like a return to gulf moisture (finally) and a decent chance of rain/storms around the 18th. Slight chances a couple times before that around the 11th and 15th

Beautiful weather continues this week. A brief cooldown for Saturday (of course). Next precipitation chances look to be mid-week around the 16th.

Early look at next week's storm. At this time it appears a mostly rain event for OK with a solid dosing of dryslot. Best rain chances E of I-35.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_24.png

SPC has slight risk out already for storms on Wednesday i-35 east.

GFS is hinting at a much more active pattern for the southern Plains starting this week. This would be a great time to catch up on needed rainfall across the state.

Looks like things are trending towards the first severe weather event of the season for OKC on Wednesday Evening. Not expecting anything too bad but the warm sector keeps trending further west on model runs. Probably more of a hail threat than anything else as most of the instability looks to be elevated.

Show begins Wednesday night. Looks like chance for severe storms for all of C OK, largest threats are hail and wind. An outside tornado chance.

On the backside, winter weather will be present out in NW OK, maybe a wrap around snow shower or few flurries Thursday around lunchtime in C OK. Nothing significant expected here in OKC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022021512/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_46.png

What's the timing when storms/precip gets going? Is this all after sundown, after midnight into the overnight....?

What's the timing when storms/precip gets going? Is this all after sundown, after midnight into the overnight....?

KOCO said storms would develop around midnight into the overnight...

1 a.m. - 5 a.m. Thursday Morning is my best guess on storm timing as of right now.

WHAT IS HAPPENING. HRRR WHAT ARE YOU DOING???? 12 inches of snow for OKC. Which will be more like 3-5 but it has the system much much further south with the 18Z model run and much more snow for the OKC metro. Anyone else picking up on this?

Damon Lane just tweeted about a possible "freezing rain mess" next week. Anyone here see anything to back this up?

WHAT IS HAPPENING. HRRR WHAT ARE YOU DOING???? 12 inches of snow for OKC. Which will be more like 3-5 but it has the system much much further south with the 18Z model run and much more snow for the OKC metro. Anyone else picking up on this?

This HRRR run is an extreme outlier at the moment. However, I will say the Canadian model has kept the low's track to the south for the last week+ until just recently when it is sliding the track to the north to match most models.

I will say, the run you are speaking about is skewed from sleet, but nonetheless it is still very impressive given the situation.

Damon Lane just tweeted about a possible "freezing rain mess" next week. Anyone here see anything to back this up?

There is two more storms coming in behind the one from this week. At this time, it appears winter precipitation will be likely.

Night time tornadoes possible but I think way down by the red river. Lawton Duncan Ardmore south type thing. Mostly likely quick spin ups but in the middle of the night it's never good. Not that it's ever good.

IMO, short-range models are backing off on the severe weather threat somewhat. Mostly expecting garden-variety storms for the OKC Metro, maybe some marginally severe hail or a strong wind gust. Greater severe threat should be down in the Texoma region. Timing looks to be around 2-6 a.m. for OKC. Regardless of the severity, a lot of the state should get some much needed precipitation out of this system, potentially up to an inch. As far as snow goes, OKC looks to maybe get a dusting. Best chance at actual accumulations in the Metro will be in the far NW suburbs. NW Oklahoma looks to get socked with a major deformation snow band tomorrow morning, would not be surprised to see localized accumulations of 8" somewhere between Woodward and Ponca City. Tomorrow will be an absolutely miserable day with temperatures struggling to hit freezing and strong north winds, but things will quickly warm up thereafter and this weekend will be a classic "false spring" situation with temperatures in the 60's and 70's ahead of another major cooldown next week. That storm system looks like an absolute mess to forecast at the moment and will probably take until Sunday or Monday for any sort of model consensus on potential winter weather impacts.

^Could not have said it better!!

Rain and storms are marching in from the west now. Will be a very cold rain, but very needed.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued for all of SW and C OK.

Wow just went outside at 10:45 and those clouds are moving. Not sure I have seen clouds move this fast.

Cold Front for the win last night. It was through the metro or at least parts of the metro before midnight. Way before the storms. Just one tornado warning way down by the red river and a few thunderstorm warnings but that was it. On to the next one.

Winds will slowly die down as we head through the night. Luckily they will begin picking back up out of the SW as we head toward morning. A great weekend on tap with 60s are in store.

Enjoy it because next week looks chilly:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021718/gfs_T2m_scus_24.png

I see our local media is already putting out maps 5 days before the storm on where the ice might be and sleet and the snow. SMH They will never learn

I see our local media is already putting out maps 5 days before the storm on where the ice might be and sleet and the snow. SMH They will never learn
I could not agree more. They just need to stick to "something will happen next Wed and Thurs" until the short range models come into their window and pretty much agree with each other. GFS and RGEM can change quite a bit run to run this far out.

But, they want viewers. They do care about the well being of the viewing public but bottom line it's a for profit business.

I could not agree more. They just need to stick to "something will happen next Wed and Thurs" until the short range models come into their window and pretty much agree with each other. GFS and RGEM can change quite a bit run to run this far out.

But, they want viewers. They do care about the well being of the viewing public but bottom line it's a for profit business.

But if we get nothing or it's all rain and you call the out on it they will deny they ever put out those maps. SMH

Hoping the storm moves slower and rain chances increase for Tuesday

Slight shift in the track. Sunday evening update looks lik a bit west of I-44 off to the Southeast event.

Slight shift in the track. Sunday evening update looks lik a bit west of I-44 off to the Southeast event.I like the last run. But we really need to wait and see what the short range models zero in on Tuesday. Though I hope today's are pretty close.

Very interested to see the models for the winter weather event Wednesday and Thursday. There could be a fine line between who gets rain, ice, sleet and snow. All three are possible across the state.

Tonight (Monday):

Severe storm threat increasing for SE half of the state as we head into this evening. Outside chance that OKC gets clipped by a storm or two, but the main show will be all SE OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022022118/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_10.png




Winter Precipitation:
Very messy forecast, Wednesday morning there will likely be winter precipitation developing over large area of the state with emphasis on the eastern half. Looks like freezing rain, sleet, and some snow is possible with broad gradient that will run NW to SW over Oklahoma.

At this time it looks like this using I-44 corridor as a general area:
NW - snow
Along - sleet
SE - ice

Looks like at least two waves for C OK, Wednesday morning it begins, then a break before additional development into the evening. Still way too far out for exact amounts and precipitation types, but it looks like east of I-44 will have the highest accumulations of precipitation. NWS will be launching balloons all event to monitor air columns.

Winter storm watches are already up for the Tulsa viewing area and into NWAR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022022118/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_46.png

A dramatic look at the contrast in temperatures as one of the winter's coldest cold fronts makes its way across Oklahoma during the early morning hours of Feb. 22 from the mid-teens in the panhandle to as much as well into the 60's. At least below zero lows are not expected as was the case in Feb. 2021. It will be interesting to see if these unusually strong cold fronts will continue to blast through later on in March.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/2-22-22.png

Still on track for two main waves of precipitation. OKC looks like mostly sleet event, favoring SE metro for highest accumulations. Will watch the precip and temps as the event unfolds for any new information.

Here is a moisture map from the storm. As you can see the eastern half of the state is really under the gun. I would not be surprised to see localized areas of Ice Storm Warnings issued for select counties and up into northern Arkansas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022022218/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

HRRR model has been increasing precipitation along I44 corridor. NWS has upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for basically all of I-44 and SE. Highest impacts will still be SE of OKC, but a narrow band of localized heavy amounts of sleet is possible along I-44.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2022022312/hrrr_apcpn_scus_33.png

^

As always, thanks very much.


Has anybody been out on the roads this morning?

i popped into the office earlier to get some things done before the storm. roads were getting pretty slick on the way back... not crazy bad but starting and stopping can be an issue.

My experience with heavy sleet like this is that roads are initially okay. But as the sleet compacts and some UV radiation sneaks in - it melts the accumulated sleet on surfaces. So it pretty much still becomes an ice rink.

Speaking of heavy sleet, thunder sleet is approaching the OKC metro from the SW as I type this 8:30am.

Short-Range models really keeping bulk of development east of I-44 for early Thurs AM.

I was enjoying KWTV's live continuous coverage of all the weather yesterday morning and when David Payne was signing off, he was completely drama-filled baiting viewers to stay close as "another powerful 2nd wave" will hit tomorrow (today) morning. This was after the whole time everyone was saying it would be lighter, but he had to get that last major click-bait style drama in going off. It's no wonder grocery stores go bare during these small events with all the drama. Then you have KOCO and KFOR forecasting record breaking snowfalls a week in advance of a storm. Not to mention KOCO's completely misleading "tornado index" slide he shows during severe weather. It's just so chaotic no wonder people around here are afraid of the weather!

Annonymous -- the models thus far are correct with precipitation finally starting to break out in the eastern third of Okla.

Some patchy freezing drizzle and a passing snow shower are going to be the OKC forecast this morning. Lows for Friday morning will be near 10 degrees.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2022022412/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_3.png


Huge temperature rebound on deck for next week with some 70s even showing their face.

I am going back to work tomorrow so I hope the roads will be okay by then

I had to go out this afternoon and was shocked at how bad the roads still are.

Even main streets like Penn were incredibly slick with people just inching along.

I had to go out this afternoon and was shocked at how bad the roads still are.

Even main streets like Penn were incredibly slick with people just inching along.

They did not salt the roads at all?

They did not salt the roads at all?

Not that I could see. Maybe just the official snow routes.

GFS is hinting at an unsettled weather pattern emerging for the southern Plains the second week of March. Hopefully it pans out to put a dent in the drought.

I had to go out this afternoon and was shocked at how bad the roads still are.

Even main streets like Penn were incredibly slick with people just inching along.

I had to take a family member to an appointment at OU Health in the health sciences center and I was shocked that those roads had not been cleared given it is a critical infrastructure location. Very poor management of criticism roads, in my opinion.

OKC has *never* done decently WRT clearing roads of snow, ice, or sleet, not in the 40 years I've been driving here, why would they start now? The "snow routes" are laughable - we live at 36th/May, wife works at the Capitol during session, uses 23rd, and it's a "snow route", yet it's been as rutted, built up, unplowed, uncleared as any other road in the city every time there's a storm. OKC's road-clearing philosophy is "It'll melt".