Chance for another round of rain/storm late tonight into early Saturday morning. Latest model runs show cluster coming out of NW TX into SW OK and weakening as it approaches C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021100117/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

Good rains over most of the state. Wide swath of over an inch from SW to NE OK

SPC outlining a 15% probability of severe weather for the area on this coming Sunday. General area is just west of I-35 and all points east. Very powerful storm will cross the southern plains. This will result in hot temperatures leading up to the storm, then cold air swinging in on the backside.

At this time it is still far away, but tornado and hail threats look present.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021100612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_19.png


SIDENOTE:
SPC also already has 15% probabilities posted for Tuesday that same week. Both instances are relatively rare for October.

Apple (watch/phone) weather shoots Friday's high all the way up to 97 (I know it's less than likely)... but still, it's interesting. NWS and Yahoo stick to 93, which is still hot.

The OU/Texas game is going to be a broiler.

Summer please leave us.

Things are still looking spicy for Sunday night. Highest severe threat will be across E/SE OK with best chance for full storm evolutions. Slight variations in track and ejection pattern of the low will fluctuate timing and locations significantly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021100812/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_46.png

Midweek system looks even more dynamic than Sunday’s, IMO, but not sure if the timing is going to be favorable for a true high-end severe weather threat as it’s currently looking like an 11 p.m. Tuesday - 11 a.m. Wednesday sort of deal.

Latest short-range models forecast for cluster of storms to approach C OK with hail as primary threat. The more extreme severe threats of large hail and tornados looks like it will mostly stay with isolated cell nature that is expected across SE OK later in the night.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021100818/nam3km_ref_uv10m_scus_56.png

Oklahoma City tied its record high with 94 for Friday 10/8/21. So maybe we're still not done with having 90s for highs.

We'll get our last 90 degree day of the year today, IMO. Tomorrow will top out in the 80's with increased cloud cover, and then I don't think we'll make it back to 90 after this series of systems moves through over the next week.

SPC has us in an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. Complex setup that will likely continue changing right up until the very last minute. My best guess right now would be semi-discrete supercells forming roughly along the I-44 corridor between 4-7 p.m. tomorrow, and then quickly congealing into a squall line and racing off to the ENE. Given the combination of moderate instability and high levels of wind shear, all severe hazards will be possible.

Yeah the tail end Charlie of the line could produce, and QLCS spinups are not fun. Tuesday/Wednesday also looks interesting though a lot more of a conditional threat

Reed Timmer on Facebook wrote, "This might be the biggest fall tornado setup in Oklahoma since October 4, 1998." The worst risk area is the southeast half of Oklahoma.

Jon slater @ Khorramshahr says otherwise tornado threat low but damaging wind and hail are high

Norman weather office says tornado threat is medium as is the wind-driven hail threat. Looks like the metro is on the northern edge of the threat area. Things will kick off before sunset, so stay weather aware today folks: https://twitter.com/nwsnorman/status/1447129689659744257?s=21

15% hatched area for tornadoes from basically I-44 and south. I would say the Norman area and eveything S and E in particular looks juicy.

We should see storms develop just to the SW of C OK and race ENE. Anything remaining more isolated and less clustered will have the best shot at large hail and tornado. Best guess is around 5-6pm for development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021101012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

Better pick up those Halloween inflatables! We may see some flying Jack Skelingtons tonight!

I just want it to finally cool off.

We are being completely cheated out of fall, which is by far my favorite season.

I just want it to finally cool off.

We are being completely cheated out of fall, which is by far my favorite season.

We keep waiting for the Shumard oak we got planted in the median a few years ago to show its colors, but so far it's just done the standard tree thing in OK for fall - change to yellow for a few days, then drop all its leaves, and I suspect this year will be the same. :(

Main threat area shifted slightly north in the afternoon outlook. North metro now in moderate risk

Yes ^. Low ejection track trending slightly more north.

Next weekend should be some classic Fall weather. Today has honestly been pretty gorgeous so far as well, you'd never know we were less than six hours out from a potential tornado outbreak. Classic Oklahoma!!!!

HRRR has been pretty consistent in showing storms moving through the Metro around 7-9 p.m. this evening. Definitely worthwhile to keep an eye on the radar as we get towards that timeframe, seems like the necessary ingredients will be in place for a potentially high-end threat.

MD is out. Cumulus field is easily seen on vis satellite. Tornado watch will come in the next hour I am sure. Also flooding risk along i-44 into NE OK will be significant overnight.

I will say this is one of the “best” setups for severe weather in OK that I have seen in a long time, including spring setups. We have had substantial clearing and heating ahead of the action with dewpoints in the mid-60s. This is not something to brush off.

The chaser discord I'm part of is indicating the cold front is stalling slightly leading to storms being more discrete and slower to "line out" indicating we may have stronger initial spaced out storms.

Tornado watch issued. “Several strong tornadoes likely.” Not quite a PDS watch, but close https://twitter.com/nwstornado/status/1447296115968131073?s=21

Conditions warranting a 70% probability of one or more EF2 tornado.

Tornado watch out for the state from the NE to SW corner until 10pm in yellow. A line of storms have sprung up just west of I-35.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/KTLX_loop.gif

With the threat of severe weather and hail, I once again marvel at people that live in this weather all year every year and fill their garages with mainly worthless junk and park their expensive cars in the elements.

On my cul-de-sac, everyone has a 2-car garage and only me (who parked his car inside from the very first day of move-in) and one other homeowner (one of 3 cars anyway) parks their vehicles in the garage.

Looking out my front window I can see a brand new $60K+ truck, a Mercedes, a Honda Pilot, a BMW and a few other generally nice cars sitting in the driveway or street, as they are always are.

^^^ Wife's 2003 Civic has always been the better car (yes, better than my 2007 Civic), so it's always been in the garage, but when I get my electric Mini Cooper, she's getting pushed out, just because I need the outlet inside the garage (we only have a 1.5 car garage). :)

I’m one of those people… But I keep my 65 Plymouth and two motorcycles in my garage. 17145

Chickasha. Get ready.

Anon, any chance of the front coming in and mitigating this at least some? Appears to be getting closer to Central OK

I’m on the NW side of the city and the cold front just got here. Very cool wind coming in now.

I’m on the NW side of the city and the cold front just got here. Very cool wind coming in now.

That's good news!

OKC just heavy rain and wind. S Norman is the tornado spot right now.

Norman just got crushed with golfball+ hail.

Again.

With the threat of severe weather and hail, I once again marvel at people that live in this weather all year every year and fill their garages with mainly worthless junk and park their expensive cars in the elements.

On my cul-de-sac, everyone has a 2-car garage and only me (who parked his car inside from the very first day of move-in) and one other homeowner (one of 3 cars anyway) parks their vehicles in the garage.

Looking out my front window I can see a brand new $60K+ truck, a Mercedes, a Honda Pilot, a BMW and a few other generally nice cars sitting in the driveway or street, as they are always are.

I have a neighbor with a two car garage. No cars in it. Just junk.

I see them taping cardboard to their windows and top of their car as the storm approaching. I just laughed and went back inside. I always makes me want to tell them that their garage would be a great place to protect those cars

I love walking around at night as I love to walk and I’m more of a night person anyways. Around my neighborhood in Edmond there were a lot of car thefts happening apparently(I never saw anything). Neighbors starting calling the police on anyone they saw walking outside at night(including me). Cops eventually come to know me by name and eventually started driving right past me or sometimes they’d talk to me just checking in.

Whenever I’d walk around during the day people would have their garages open and I’d say at least over 30 percent of all the homes have crap stacked to the wall. This isn’t a poor neighborhood either and you’d think that they could spend some money on either a new room for their hobbies or a storage unit. I guess they’d rather dispose money on repairing their car from a broken window. Whatever.

^

And many of them rent a storage unit where they pay money to stash even more junk.

^

And many of them rent a storage unit where they pay money to stash even more junk.
I know someone who does that. I love them to death but I genuinely believe they are a compulsive hoarder as they seem unable to turn anything down no matter how junky it is. I also know several people who have one of the guest rooms packed to the ceiling with crap. One lady I know has two homes both completely stacked with crap. I really wonder how many other countries around the world have this problem.

It’s not only hoarders, in the psychological disorder sense. This is an American sociological problem. We have placed such an emphasis on the acquisition of “stuff” that many people have lost perspective on quality. And speaking of quality, they’ve missed out on the of LIFE that comes from not being ruled by possessions. Many of those garages are full of toys they never use, furniture they don’t have room for, etc.. All they know is that they feel societal pressure to have MORE. It’s a national sickness.

"That which you hold holds you in return."

It’s not only hoarders, in the psychological disorder sense. This is an American sociological problem. We have placed such an emphasis on the acquisition of “stuff” that many people have lost perspective on quality. And speaking of quality, they’ve missed out on the of LIFE that comes from not being ruled by possessions. Many of those garages are full of toys they never use, furniture they don’t have room for, etc.. All they know is that they feel societal pressure to have MORE. It’s a national sickness.

that reminds me of a book i read around 25 years ago, 'the mcdonaldization of society.' its thesis was basically the perception of 'quantity' as 'quality'... it was a pretty good read. in the years since, i think we have softened from that stance somewhat but it's still a big part of our culture.

Any thoughts on the storm on Tuesday/Wednesday? Doesn’t seem as bad but the models seem to be showing signs of a PDS tornado type of day. At least, they were suggesting that this morning.

Tornado threat looks lower at this time. Looks like an after-dark line of storms deal for most of the state. The earlier, discrete cells would be across NW/W OK. Of course embedded supercells producing larger hail and spinups along a line is in the cards as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021101112/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

Tornado threat looks lower at this time. Looks like an after-dark line of storms deal for most of the state. The earlier, discrete cells would be across NW/W OK. Of course embedded supercells producing larger hail and spinups along a line is in the cards as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021101112/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_44.png

Thanks! Wow, those models have changed a bit compared to what I was seeing in the last run. Pretty crazy.

HRRR This afternoon is suggesting a few supercells to develop ahead of the line this afternoon. If this comes to fruition I would place an elevated hail and tornado risk for W OK, and maybe skirting into C OK, although it shows early storms losing some steam as they approach C OK.

Here is a snapshot showing a single supercell marching up I-44.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021101214/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

SPC has expanded the hatched 10% tornado and 30% hail zones from only far W and NW OK, to now include basically all of W OK from western edge of the OKC metro.

MD is out for far W OK and TX PH. Noting current low chance of development of any early supercells, but high impact from anything that does get up. cumulus field is present across NW TX and seen spreading northward.

I think we could see a PDS tornado watch for the TX/OK border going up into SW KS.

Tornado Watch out for W OK. 1-3 supercells currently on NNE tracks out there.

For C OK, we will likely see a severe thunderstorm watch placed over the area well after dark.

New MD out for these two long-track supercells. Both have produced multiple tornadoes.

C OK is a less favorable environment for the continuation of these cells. The last few scans as of about 9:30 pm show the storm SW of OKC weakening already.

Anadarko is next in the track (two nights in a row).

Will there be any rain for OKC tonight, or is it looking dry?

OKC will get a thin line of storms late tonight. Gusty winds primary threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021101302/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

Tornado Warning for W OKC as radar detects shear on front of line that could be indicative of a tornado.

Likely QLCS spin-up around I-40 and Council right now, not good given the early-morning timing.

Circulation is broad. Just north of Downtown OKC. ~5:22am

Circulation has passed OKC. No reports of damage or anything that I have seen. Sirens never sounded for downtown OKC.

^^^^^^^^^
They definitely sounded in Uptown/HH/Mesta/Gatewood. Glad I was already up and around. Early morning tornado sirens suck.

Heard them way out west at Reno & Cemetery.