As usual in May around here, lots of different items to discuss.

1) A cold front will move through the area tomorrow afternoon. Elevated storms will likely form behind the front tomorrow evening; large hail looks to be the main threat, with any tornado threat focusing well east of the Metro where surface-based storm development is possible.

2) A northwest flow system will move into the area from the Rockies on Wednesday Evening, possibly triggering another round of storms. There are still some model inconsistencies, but this potentially looks to be focused more to the the north of the city. In any case, would not expect any notable tornado threat with this system either as our storm events from NW flow systems tend to be more linear in nature.

3) Things become increasingly murky into the weekend, but there's a general signal for another round or two of storms in the Friday - Sunday timeframe. IMO, still doesn't really look like a pattern that would give us any major severe weather.

4) Looking into the long range, things do appear to potentially shift towards a more "classic" spring severe weather pattern for Oklahoma, with a trough in the Southwest US and a ridge in the Southeast. This setup usually gives us the southeasterly surface winds and southwesterly flow aloft that we find in a lot of our major spring events. This would likely be in the May 13th-17th timeframe, so still a lot of time for things to change.

Looking forward to revisiting this post in the weeks to come and seeing how accurate or inaccurate my predictions are, lol.

^

Really appreciate the info.

^

Really appreciate the info.

No problem. Meteorology is what originally brought me to Oklahoma, and even though I ultimately didn't have the necessary drive to get my degree (for anyone who doesn't know, meteorology is one of the toughest degrees to get), it's the main reason I'm now on my third stint of living in the OKC area. Will always be fascinated by the myriad of different weather events here, and actually glad it ended up being a hobby rather than a career, as I now get to enjoy the events rather than working during them. Anyways, I just hope that my contributions to these threads can be half as useful as Anonymous's, lol.

Seems like hail has been the predominate threat the past few years in oklahoma. The tornado threat has been to the southeast predominately. I wonder if this is recency bias or if there is any data to support that?

No problem. Meteorology is what originally brought me to Oklahoma, and even though I ultimately didn't have the necessary drive to get my degree (for anyone who doesn't know, meteorology is one of the toughest degrees to get), it's the main reason I'm now on my third stint of living in the OKC area. Will always be fascinated by the myriad of different weather events here, and actually glad it ended up being a hobby rather than a career, as I now get to enjoy the events rather than working during them. Anyways, I just hope that my contributions to these threads can be half as useful as Anonymous's, lol.

You guys are so good and thorough, I don't even watch the TV news.

In fact, I cut cable completely a couple of months ago and bought an over-the-air antenna and have never found reason to use it.

You guys are so good and thorough, I don't even watch the TV news.

In fact, I cut cable completely a couple of months ago and bought an over-the-air antenna and have never found reason to use it.

I'm not a big fan of the local news for forecasting, but their live coverage (when warranted) is really helpful in spotting the storms....especially on those really risky days.

SEMIweather has it pretty covered. I would say tonight for C OK, getting meaningful rain and storms will predicate on any clusters forming across NW TX/SW OK and move NE into the area. Otherwise most of the action will stay to the E parts of the state.


Looks like the next couple weeks could be some of the best weather we have had in a while with temps in the 70s and wind levels that won't ruin the day.

HRRR showing the party across E OK tonight.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021050312/hrrr_apcpn_scus_23.png

I have been hearing chasers talking about that more classic pattern May 12th -17th pattern for awhile now. Probably more about them looking for a more normal looking pattern to chase in.

The trend for tonight seems to be for surface-based supercells to form SE of the Metro (high confidence) and elevated supercells to largely stay south of the Metro (slightly lower confidence). Feel confident in saying there will be no tornado threat for the Metro; if the elevated storms track further north than what’s currently shown on the short range models, there will be a hail threat. This would most likely be centered on areas to the south of I-240, if it ends up happening.

The trend for tonight seems to be for surface-based supercells to form SE of the Metro (high confidence) and elevated supercells to largely stay south of the Metro (slightly lower confidence). Feel confident in saying there will be no tornado threat for the Metro; if the elevated storms track further north than what’s currently shown on the short range models, there will be a hail threat. This would most likely be centered on areas to the south of I-240, if it ends up happening.

Yes agree. What do you think the this coming weekend and possible weather change next week being more active. (too soon yet)

3:30pm Dallas to Ada and East of there looks really good for a Tornado. If you know anyone in SE Oklahoma even North Texas give them a heads up.

Yeah once the cap breaks down there it’s gonna be off to the races

SPC noting a 60% probability of tornados in the watch area. And 40% chance of those being EF2 and higher. Supercells are going up now down there.

Yeah they hit 50k tops real quick. Might be another massive hail night for the DFW metroplex

Shallow convective showers are currently moving across the Metro, not expecting any issues from these. To the south, numerous supercells are ongoing from Ada all the way down to south of Fort Worth. These are all moving fairly slowly to the NNE. Thus far, large hail has been the main threat from these although NWS Dallas/Fort Worth did just issue the first tornado warning of the day. It does seem increasingly likely that these storms will try to backbuild into the Metro during the 8-9 p.m. timeframe. Not sure about the severe threat as the strongest storms do still look to stay largely to the east of us on the short range models.

Side note, should probably be some very impressive lightning off to the SE tonight if anyone is into lightning watching.

First set of backbuilding storms has initiated around Shawnee and Tecumseh. I do expect another round or two of these to try and make it as far west as the I-35 corridor, with some isolated marginally severe hail possible. Otherwise, seems likely we'll get some scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder early tomorrow morning as an upper level system moves in from the Texas Panhandle. All precipitation should move out of the area by noon tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a rather brisk, chilly day for early May but it's just a one day cool down.

Storms made a few attempts to get going in the eastern suburbs over the past couple of hours, but nothing stuck west of the Oklahoma/Pottawatomie county line. In Pottawatomie County, Shawnee did get some tennis ball sized hail. Would not expect anything now for OKC until the upper level forcing comes in late tonight - that should trigger some showers and a rumble or two of thunder.

Interesting article:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-saw-fewest-april-tornadoes-since-2000/ar-BB1gjYnA?ocid=uxbndlbing

Interesting article:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-saw-fewest-april-tornadoes-since-2000/ar-BB1gjYnA?ocid=uxbndlbing

It's Crazy. When is the last time Kansas has had a tornado? Their numbers are way down over the last two springs. I still think Saturday evening looks impressive but I have only looked at a few things like the dew points and where the dry line sets up. GFS shows a huge dry line punch coming into central Oklahoma but I haven't had time to look at other things. Maybe someone else on her can chime in.

Oops never mind just checked a few other things for Saturday while things look good right now there is a strong Cap. We shall see.

Oops never mind just checked a few other things for Saturday while things look good right now there is a strong Cap. We shall see.

What's your definition of "look[s] good right now." For us non-chasers, looking good on Saturday night means a strong cap will put a lid on any severe weather chances. Is this what you mean?

What's your definition of "look[s] good right now." For us non-chasers, looking good on Saturday night means a strong cap will put a lid on any severe weather chances. Is this what you mean?

What I mean by it looks good is the Dryline and wind profiles look favorable for storms but they will be a cap limiting energy. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) mentioned CAPE this morning which is the energy needed

This may be focused near the intersection of a developing frontal
cyclone and dryline across the central Great Plains on Saturday,
when lapse rates will be steep, but CAPE may still be a bit modest

Oh course as I'm tying this a certain channel is talking about the Tornado Risk for Saturday but that is only if the cap breaks. There is going to be a good Dry line in the state Saturday. Something to keep an eye on but nothing to hype (like you might start hearing on tv) just yet. I'm sure others might be able to explain it better than me. I'm not 100% on how to read weather soundings. I'm ok at it but still don't understand all of it.

Enjoy this spring day with NO WIND! Amazing weather today and tomorrow.

Winds pick back up from the S Friday into Saturday ahead of a storm.

FYI - Pattern around the middle of the month not looking nearly as favorable for severe weather as it did when I created this thread.

Still think we should have decent rain chances at least a few days next week, and given that it's May probably some lower-impact severe threats as well.

Glad to see the local people not going crazy about Saturday. The Cap is strong very strong. Watch it break and all heck breaks loose after 2 days of no hype.

Glad to see the local people not going crazy about Saturday. The Cap is strong very strong. Watch it break and all heck breaks loose after 2 days of no hype.

Yeah I saw them start to back off this weekend, they have moved on to sounding the alarms for next weekend however. (Well one is).

Yeah I saw them start to back off this weekend, they have moved on to sounding the alarms for next weekend however. (Well one is).

I know how could they even start talking about next weekend. That is like 10-11 days away. It's so stupid. Now grant it the computer models do look really good but It's 10 days away so much is going to change don't even mention it at this point cause it's pointless.

Would be stunned if the cap broke here on Saturday. Will probably be a nice event somewhere in Kansas closer to the low + warm front.

FYI - Pattern around the middle of the month not looking nearly as favorable for severe weather as it did when I created this thread.

Still think we should have decent rain chances at least a few days next week, and given that it's May probably some lower-impact severe threats as well.

I noticed that too. GFS is not showing a nice strong trough in the jet stream. It almost looks like it’s just kinda lazily meandering about. Also, moisture doesn’t really come up much either. Maybe these trends will change a bit.

So news 9 likes to tout their million watt radar that they installed shortly after the Moore/ Yukon tornadoes, and we haven’t had a major sever weather outbreak like that since. I wonder if they consider that a good investment at this point? Wonder if they would do it again if they could?

I noticed that too. GFS is not showing a nice strong trough in the jet stream. It almost looks like it’s just kinda lazily meandering about. Also, moisture doesn’t really come up much either. Maybe these trends will change a bit.

This is all good news. Wouldn't it be nice to have another nice and quiet May with all that's gone on? I am grateful to hear of a quieter pattern.

This is all good news. Wouldn't it be nice to have another nice and quiet May with all that's gone on? I am grateful to hear of a quieter pattern.

It depends on how you look at it. The cons of severe weather are obvious, but that severe weather brings about much needed moisture before heading into the summer. Do I want severe storms? No. But. I would like to see a more active pattern set up here at some point as we’re going to need the rain moving into summer.

It depends on how you look at it. The cons of severe weather are obvious, but that severe weather brings about much needed moisture before heading into the summer. Do I want severe storms? No. But. I would like to see a more active pattern set up here at some point as we’re going to need the rain moving into summer.

Amen to that--bring the rain without the severity. Looks like we are set to get a pretty solid and cool rain beginning of next week--that's great news. We better get it now, because we all know what happens in late July--the spigot turns off for a while.

Anybody else getting tired of these cold fronts?? This weather blows!

Unseasonably cool weather with occasional rounds of showers/embedded non-severe thunderstorms will be the rule through Wednesday. Thereafter, we will warm up and enter a summerlike NW flow pattern which is typically favorable for MCS development over Colorado during the day and then moving SE into Oklahoma during the evening hours. Still not seeing much that would suggest any higher-end severe weather events between now and the end of next weekend. Will update if that changes.

Anybody else getting tired of these cold fronts?? This weather blows!

Blew our electricity out. So, so, so, so tired of OG&E......

16847

Tomorrow will be cool and rainy for majority of the state. Then this storm system moves out. Should see beautiful weather for the back-half of the week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021051012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_27.png

Looks like a good soaking today

Storm season might pick up a little starting this weekend and some of next week also. We stay in a Southernly Flow. Dewpoints stay in the 60s for the most part. I mean it's kind of to be expected it is May. However no more of these strong cold fronts for a while.

I had a dream that I was watching Damon Lane and he was explaining how unusual it is to get a snowstorm the first week of June.

AND THIER OFF. Seriously how do you start putting out Risk maps for next Tuesday when it's only Tuesday today. THAT IS A WEEK AWAY. I truly don't understand.

Definitely going to be heading into a convectively active pattern starting on Friday Night. I'm sure there will probably be one or two higher end days whenever the main trough ejects out of the Desert Southwest, but no agreement amongst the models thus in terms of when that might be (which is to be expected, as it's probably at least a week away).

Putting a risk map 7 days out isn't such a bad thing. Considering SPC has the option of putting a risk map 8 days out :)

Putting a risk map 7 days out isn't such a bad thing. Considering SPC has the option of putting a risk map 8 days out :)

True but that is a much bigger area and more chance. Not down to a state level and down to a county level at least when it's more than 4 days out. They will use terms like the Southern Plains or upper Midwest. They also won't do even go slight until the models agree and they are pretty certain. Hence why they didn't put anything out for this weekend yet.

Replying to SEMIweather. Agree there is going to be an uptick. It's only Tuesday but I'm slightly impressed with Sunday. More so than next Tuesday as of now but it will all change lets talk Friday evening and revisit.

16851

CIPS Severe Analogs really highlights Central Oklahoma for next week. This would be the highest tornado risk we have seen this year. (Which isn't saying much since it's been quiet). But, a 10% TOR ring is certainly nothing to scoff at. This is just now getting sampled by CIPS but will likely see a mention by SPC in the Days 4-8 outlook tomorrow.

16851

CIPS Severe Analogs really highlights Central Oklahoma for next week. This would be the highest tornado risk we have seen this year. (Which isn't saying much since it's been quiet). But, a 10% TOR ring is certainly nothing to scoff at. This is just now getting sampled by CIPS but will likely see a mention by SPC in the Days 4-8 outlook tomorrow.

Let's revisit on Friday evening for start of next week. A week is way too early. General term like a chance and Southern Plains ok cool but that map is going to change every model run for the next 5 days so i'm not even going to pay attention to it. Need to get thru the weekend first.

Definitely looking like an active pattern is coming. Which is great news for moisture. It looks like we could see a flooding threat building across parts of OK by end of next week.

Let's revisit on Friday evening for start of next week. A week is way too early. General term like a chance and Southern Plains ok cool but that map is going to change every model run for the next 5 days so i'm not even going to pay attention to it. Need to get thru the weekend first.

Do you know who you're debating on this...? :)

:)

For those keeping up with the CIPS analogs for next Tuesday. Compared to yesterday,there's been an increase in the tornado analogs percentage. Look at this similar to the way you look at a tornado probability from SPC. While the low pressure is not very strong, climatology would say a low pressure system,in the Southern Plains,in the 3rd week of May , would favor some sort of tornado threat. 16852

For those keeping up with the CIPS analogs for next Tuesday. Compared to yesterday,there's been an increase in the tornado analogs percentage. Look at this similar to the way you look at a tornado probability from SPC. While the low pressure is not very strong, climatology would say a low pressure system,in the Southern Plains,in the 3rd week of May , would favor some sort of tornado threat. 16852

I agree and I'm good with a general area and words like SOUTHERN PLAINS cause this map is going to shift. Even Monday is looking good for storms heck all next week is but still too soon to narrow it down to which parts of Oklahoma.

Putting a risk map 7 days out isn't such a bad thing. Considering SPC has the option of putting a risk map 8 days out :)

True, but they haven't bitten yet since there is no consistent model agreement. When the SPC did a few weeks ago on that Tuesday event ended up fizzling out.

It will probably be at least a somewhat more active since the cold front is not crashing through. I'm just glad its not going to be cold in May next week.

What until the see what the 12Z GFS did for Monday night in Western and Southwestern OK. Holy crap. Remember it's only one model run. Deep Breaths

Outflow boundaries, overnight morning rains, where the low actually sets up. There might be a lot of factors coming into play for severe weather next week and might not even know to morning of or the night before. My best guess right now is Southern Texas Panhandle, Nw Texas, Southwest Oklahoma Monday and Central Texas maybe up into Southern Oklahoma Tuesday but this is a messy set up as of Friday Morning. I would expect a Risk area from the SPC tomorrow morning for Monday and Tuesday but as of right now nothing.

There’ll probably be a marginal to slight risk of severe storms pretty much every day over the next week, but it seems fairly obvious that flooding is going to be the main threat from this pattern.

Yes, just a big mess of storms for some, nothing for others. Outflow boundaries moving on coinflips and sparking additional storms.

Just check radar if you have outdoor plans, there is little organization expected.

From the NWS this Afternoon: .LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Should any late afternoon convection develop Saturday across our
area, storms could be ongoing for a few hours during the evening
hours till sundown. Any late afternoon convection firing up near
the dryline in the Panhandles could produce a few severe storms
across far western Oklahoma should any track in before sundown, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary hazards. Otherwise
aloft, a large amplitude trough will be in place across the
California Coast, with a ridge downflow extending from the Southern
Rocky Mountains to the Southern High Plains. Expecting the ridge to
kink into a shortwave, and interact with mid-level moisture to
produce some additional but higher based storms overnight moving
west to east across our area into Sunday. Although elevated
instability is expected to decrease overnight to 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, the enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet may produce a
few strong to marginal severe storms. Another shortwave rolling in
off the Southern High Plains will bring another round of elevated
storms Sunday evening and overnight across our area. With steep low
to mid level lapse rates persisting, will continue to see a marginal
risk for severe storms with hail and winds as the hazards.

By Monday, our near zonal flow aloft shifts more southwesterly as
the large scale upper trough digging across the U.S. Southwest
starts approaching, keeping a wet forecast every day next week. The
persistent rainfall accumulations could shift from severe to more
flooding hazards by early Monday, with over 4-inches of storm total
accumulated rainfall by then. The models bring the upper low &
trough axis through our area toward late Wednesday adding another
couple of inches of additional rainfall. By Thursday expecting the
upper system to gradually exit, although could see another wave come
through on Friday with additional rain possible.

Picturesque storm cloud south of Downtown right now