Glimpse of Thursday evening from the NAM. Showing supercells firing across NW and N OK. Eventually forming into a large MCS that pushes SE. Despite what will likely become a large line of storms, embedded supercells are viable. Large hail and damaging wind main threats with outside tornado spin-up threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021052518/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_54.png

Glimpse of Thursday evening from the NAM. Showing supercells firing across NW and N OK. Eventually forming into a large MCS that pushes SE. Despite what will likely become a large line of storms, embedded supercells are viable. Large hail and damaging wind main threats with outside tornado spin-up threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021052518/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_54.png

At this point not buying any of it. We can't see to get storms into the body of the state at all. Today looked good or ok in the morning and nothing. Probably won't even rain in the metro and 80% of the state overnight. It's like we are blocked this year from storms. It's crazy

It seems like every day shows a good chance of rain, then it suddenly evaporates and then it's the same forecast the next day.

It's all one big tease.

SPC has outlined a 5% tornado risk for large part of OK tomorrow night. 10% in a local area across extreme N and NE OK. Emphasis on damaging wind threat with lines of storms and echoing sentiment on potential for embedded cyclonic areas within the line.


...Consolidation into one or more
surging bows may occur during the evening and persist into the
overnight. Significant severe gusts may accompany the stronger
supercell to squall line transition process or with embedded
mesovortices within a moist low-level airmass centered over
central/eastern OK...


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021052612/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_36.png

Also Thursday will probably be OKC's hottest day of the year so far. Temperature ahead of the front will be surging into the mid-80s and humidity values will be very high.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021052612/hrrr_T2m_scus_35.png

It seems like every day shows a good chance of rain, then it suddenly evaporates and then it's the same forecast the next day.

It's all one big tease.

Yeah this has been one strange two week period of weather forecasts. Also, we get the thick air without any of the actual rain. Feels like New Orleans or Houston out there.

They moved the Tornado risk a bit with the noon update. Tulsa in the bullseye. Not much of a change but a change none the less. I think it will come down to where the outflow boundary ends up from dying overnight storms.

Feeling fairly confident in a severe MCS moving through the metro tomorrow evening. Main bust potential IMO is if the outflow boundary associated with tonight’s MCS in Kansas/Nebraska ends up stalling out further south than currently modeled, as tomorrow’s MCS will likely form along that boundary. Most models currently have this boundary stalling out in Northern OK, with subsequent convective initiation there tomorrow afternoon. This would then look to form into a line and sink south through the Metro tomorrow evening. Will want to wait until tomorrow morning to confirm that this will all happen as currently modeled, because sometimes these boundaries do end up further south than anticipated, which in this case would shift the main severe threat south of OKC. But otherwise, I think it’s all systems go for a potentially notable severe weather event. This is the most confident I’ve been about an event this spring, although granted that’s not saying too much given how quiet things have been. Will try to post an update later tonight if there’s anything new.

PDS TOR watch is out for W KS tonight. Already been one monster supercell up there, and expecting a few more to form in the next couple hours.

Dodge City radar will be getting a workout.

PDS TOR watch is out for W KS tonight. Already been one monster supercell up there, and expecting a few more to form in the next couple hours.

Dodge City radar will be getting a workout.

https://www.twitch.tv/bgraywx/ It has dropped serval tornadoes in sw Nebraska.

Tomorrow HUH? A bit different in timing but HRRR and Nam Nest show storms in the afternoon 1-4 and then around round at 7. HUH? Both lines will be severe if the models hold true but look at today. Cough Cough Western Kansas MAJOR BUST

Yeah the atmosphere is going to be potent tomorrow but just what exactly the storm mode and timing will be is a bit of a crapshoot. Definite PDS bust in KS today.

Tomorrow is probably going to be a very messy setup but no doubt we are going to have a nice round or two of storms. Will be interested to see what the radar/surface OBS look like when I wake up in 8 hours or so. Definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells, which is good news.

Not excited about what I’m seeing this morning on the models. They’re still showing a line of storms for today, but the line is a lot more ragged to the southwest and over the metro...depending on the model you’re looking at. It’s still a lot more robust up near Tulsa. The model trends from last night to this morning make me nervous for another bust. It looks like moisture, or lack there of, in the mid/upper levels is hindering storm development? Otherwise, the instability is there. Not sure why things aren’t looking as good in the metro and parts southwest compared to last night.

I love the weather talk on this thread, but look at the last two posts prior. Can we agree on language/ point of view at least so the forecasts are more clear? You have C_M_25 here saying " not sure why things aren't looking as good in the Metro..." which means not looking good for storm development? And then you have SEMIweather saying " definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells which is good news." Good news that there's not going to be super cell development? I think I know enough about weather around here to assume this is good news for less severe weather in the Metro? It's tough for us non weather folks to interpret these forecasts when the points of view between narratives are different. Some folks like the thrill of severe weather, I can tell, and others would much rather not have severe weather around with all the challenges it brings. If you all could keep that in mind when writing up your forecasts and be very objective in your language so us laymen can be clear about what you're saying, it would be much appreciated. Thanks to all those that look at the models and comment on here, though.

I love the weather talk on this thread, but look at the last two posts prior. Can we agree on language/ point of view at least so the forecasts are more clear? You have C_M_25 here saying " not sure why things aren't looking as good in the Metro..." which means not looking good for storm development? And then you have SEMIweather saying " definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells which is good news." Good news that there's not going to be super cell development? I think I know enough about weather around here to assume this is good news for less severe weather in the Metro? It's tough for us non weather folks to interpret these forecasts when the points of view between narratives are different. Some folks like the thrill of severe weather, I can tell, and others would much rather not have severe weather around with all the challenges it brings. If you all could keep that in mind when writing up your forecasts and be very objective in your language so us laymen can be clear about what you're saying, it would be much appreciated. Thanks to all those that look at the models and comment on here, though.

I think everyone on here is just discussing weather.... not making a formal forecast for any specific person or viewpoint. There are plenty of local news stations, crazy people on facebook and other websites like the NWS that will provide a formal, objective forecast for you.

I love the weather talk on this thread, but look at the last two posts prior. Can we agree on language/ point of view at least so the forecasts are more clear? You have C_M_25 here saying " not sure why things aren't looking as good in the Metro..." which means not looking good for storm development? And then you have SEMIweather saying " definitely looks like there's going to be fairly rapid upscale growth as opposed to long-lived supercells which is good news." Good news that there's not going to be super cell development? I think I know enough about weather around here to assume this is good news for less severe weather in the Metro? It's tough for us non weather folks to interpret these forecasts when the points of view between narratives are different. Some folks like the thrill of severe weather, I can tell, and others would much rather not have severe weather around with all the challenges it brings. If you all could keep that in mind when writing up your forecasts and be very objective in your language so us laymen can be clear about what you're saying, it would be much appreciated. Thanks to all those that look at the models and comment on here, though.

You have to understand when you are reading weather forums that meteorologists are not hoping for destruction, but they do like to see their life's work in action. It's hard for some in the general public to separate the awe of tornadoes with the personal destruction, but meteorologists do. The fascination of severe weather lured them into studying it for endless hours. Don't take the wording personally.

Lots of lift in the forecast, so much that organized severe weather looks less likely, and more of a storm-palooza is on tap.

It looks like we will have a round of storms develop somewhere across W/NW OK as early as even 3-5pm. This will form into a cluster and fly eastward. Then a second cluster fires off behind the initial development and rides down to the SE into the overnight.

This will result in increased threat of flash-flooding.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021052712/hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

You have to understand when you are reading weather forums that meteorologists are not hoping for destruction, but they do like to see their life's work in action. It's hard for some in the general public to separate the awe of tornadoes with the personal destruction, but meteorologists do. The fascination of severe weather lured them into studying it for endless hours. Don't take the wording personally.

Pandemics are an epidemiologist's life's work in action, but I've never seen an epidemiologist root for one to happen.

Pandemics are an epidemiologist's life's work in action, but I've never seen an epidemiologist root for one to happen.

Most people with an interest in meteorology are not rooting for a high end several weather outbreak just like most epidemiologist are not rooting for pandemic's to happen. We're talking about the 1% of scenarios when nature shows its ugly side. 99% of the time nature is interesting and fascinating. I'm sure there are psychologists who find serial killers fascinating, but I wouldn't accuse them of wishing for more serial killers.

Agree with Anonymous, most of the short-range convection allowing models are showing an initial round of storms in the early afternoon, followed by the main line moving through early this evening. The initial round of storms should temper the overall severe threat of the main line but I would still expect some hail and wind potential from both rounds (hail being the greater threat with the first round, wind with the second round). If for whatever reason the early storms don’t develop, there would be a more significant hail/wind threat with the main line as the atmosphere wouldn’t be worked over when that line moves through. Tornado threat IMO looks low either way, but can’t completely rule it out.

Also, with regards to earlier posts, would always recommend people check out NWS Norman’s forecasts at weather.gov/oun as I feel they do an excellent job. Much better than the local news stations at balancing awareness vs. hype, although I do feel the local news also provides a valuable service with their nowcasts/live coverage as the events are unfolding. My posts on this thread are strictly opinion/entertainment, as mentioned before I’m fascinated by the range of weather here and just enjoy posting what I feel will happen based on my amateur analysis of the models.

I personally appreciate all the great weather info provided here.

I don't even watch the tv weather because you guys do such a good job of informing everyone.

Thankfully SPC pulled back the 10% tornado area that was on earlier outlooks, though the metro is still in the hatched area for wind and hail. Not looking forward to a repeat of what happened in Norman earlier this spring, only on a wider scale.

https://i.imgur.com/HcPiRga.gif

https://i.imgur.com/FWgMqCi.gif

Model run after model run from most models have been showing storm 1-3 metro and again 7-9. I buy more into things when the agree run after run like they have today so far. The first batch could pose more of a punch in terms of hail and the second batch in terms of winds. Tornadoes are too hard to say. If they can interact with a boundary there is a chance. However winds are out of the SW right now (10:30am) which is not favorable for Tornadoes.

You have to understand when you are reading weather forums that meteorologists are not hoping for destruction, but they do like to see their life's work in action. It's hard for some in the general public to separate the awe of tornadoes with the personal destruction, but meteorologists do. The fascination of severe weather lured them into studying it for endless hours. Don't take the wording personally.

Not taking anything personally. I just want a bit more clarity with wording so I know the framework from which the poster is working. Just a few more words added on to what I read above would help qualify words like "good." I DO go to the NWS for their forecasts (not FB) and I know they formally talk about communications to the public at their conferences (Rick Smith at NWS has talked a lot about this on Twitter) because it is so critical to get that right--factual, firm and clear but not panic-inducing. This forum is usually great with that and, as I said, I appreciate the amateur mets and their analysis (which seems far from amateur to me). Thank you.

I personally appreciate all the great weather info provided here.

I don't even watch the tv weather because you guys do such a good job of informing everyone.

Ditto. The only time I watch is during an event and I turn on channel 9's radar (with no sound, of course) to see where things are, at least until my power goes out. :(

Convective initiation already occurring from Elk City down to Altus. This will likely end up being the storms that track across the Metro early this afternoon.

NWS Norman has issued a Flood Watch in anticipation of multiple rounds of heavy rain.

Tornado Watch incoming https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0764.html:


Mesoscale Discussion 0764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma. far southern
Kansas and northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271629Z - 271730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
through central Oklahoma by early afternoon and gradually spread
east. Supercells with isolated large hail will be the initial main
threat, but isolated damaging wind and a few tornadoes are also
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis show the atmosphere to be
moderately to strongly unstable (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) across
western through central OK supported by steep mid-level lapse rates
above rich low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F. Latest trends in radar show a few showers developing within a
modest warm advection regime in the pre-frontal warm sector across
western OK. While some remnant capping may still exist, convective
inhibition should gradually weaken as temperatures rise into the low
80s F. Rap analysis data show a mid-level jet approaching this
region from the west, and effective bulk shear profiles will
gradually increase to between 40 and 50 kt through the afternoon.
This environment should support discrete supercells as the initial
storm mode with large to very large hail likely. While low-level
hodographs are not particularly large with 0-1 km storm relative
helicity between 100-150 m2/s2 isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out given degree of instability and a very moist boundary layer with
relatively low LCLS. Additional storms may develop along the cold
front by late afternoon across southern KS into northern OK and
these will also likely become severe.

I personally appreciate all the great weather info provided here.

I don't even watch the tv weather because you guys do such a good job of informing everyone.

i will echo this .... this is a great resource .. and really appreciated

And there's our Tornado Watch for most of the state.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Oklahoma

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and intensify through the
afternoon across the watch area, with supercells possible. Very
large hail and damaging winds are the main threat, but there is some
concern for a few tornadoes in the most intense cells.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Clinton OK
to 20 miles south southeast of Fayetteville AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Thankfully only 40/20 tornado probabilities. Wind and hail will be the big issues, but things are definitely kicking off earlier than a normal outbreak

We may see storms form a train line and the southern edges will be potential spin-up zones. Flash flooding will be high threat under the train.

Watonga to Perry area looks primed for a flood threat. I’m ambivalent about the threat to the Metro with this first round as nothing south of I-40 looks to have too much juice as of right now, although the cell to the SW of Hinton is trying.

Most people with an interest in meteorology are not rooting for a high end several weather outbreak just like most epidemiologist are not rooting for pandemic's to happen. We're talking about the 1% of scenarios when nature shows its ugly side. 99% of the time nature is interesting and fascinating. I'm sure there are psychologists who find serial killers fascinating, but I wouldn't accuse them of wishing for more serial killers.

+1

Non-scientists have some amount of trouble accepting these very nuanced distinctions, but they are distinctions nonetheless.

Hinton storm is getting more organized but also seems to be making somewhat of a left turn. This may still skirt the northern suburbs but otherwise it’s becoming fairly apparent that the main show for OKC will be this evening. With no early storms to take the juice out of the atmosphere, I definitely think there is potential for significant hail and wind.

Tornado warning on the Dover cell. The cell further west also is rotating near Hitchcock.

EDIT: Going to add W of Stillwater to the lead cell, rotation also coming up.

News 9 facebook stream: https://www.facebook.com/NEWS9/videos/3909843295801975/

Some massive hail on these already. Gonna be a bumpy evening.

+1

Non-scientists have some amount of trouble accepting these very nuanced distinctions, but they are distinctions nonetheless.

Having a BS in Botany I definitely wouldn't qualify as a non-scientist. I totally understand that most people interested in meteorology don't root for severe weather, but are fascinated when it does occur. My beef is with people that think a severe weather forecast "looks good" or call it a "bust" when the chance of severe weather lessens. I'm not even accusing them of rooting for destruction or loss of life, but the fact that they hope for severe weather which will sooner or later result in death and destruction rubs me the wrong way.

Need to keep a watch on the cool front and dryline areas out west as we head toward this evening.

We could see the current development zone/boundary continue to sag south from current spot in toward C OK. At same time, the cool front will be approaching from the NW. This could create a very prolonged time of storms across C OK.

I would place high flooding threat all along just N of the metro. Kingfisher, Okarche, trailing off toward Guthrie.

https://i.imgur.com/0uiHqdM.png

Having a BS in Botany I definitely wouldn't qualify as a non-scientist. I totally understand that most people interested in meteorology don't root for severe weather, but are fascinated when it does occur. My beef is with people that think a severe weather forecast "looks good" or call it a "bust" when the chance of severe weather lessens. I'm not even accusing them of rooting for destruction or loss of life, but the fact that they hope for severe weather which will sooner or later result in death and destruction rubs me the wrong way.

When a forecast looks good for storms then it means things are lining up for storms. I don’t think people think that storms, specifically tornadoes and hail, are a good thing necessarily. Forecast busts are a big deal. You may think that we’re frustrated that we didn’t see any action when we use the term “bust;” however, busted forecasts erodes confidence in the process. It sets up a boy who cried wolf situation and when the big one hits and people aren’t listening, then you have a huge problem. Also, missing out on rain is also a big deal and it’s a bummer when it happens, I.e. bust...

Also, this is a public forum and there are those that do get excited when weather like this comes through. I actually enjoy thunderstorms and severe weather so am always a little disappointed when things don’t materialize. Any meteorologist who says that they aren’t a little bummed that a forecast doesn’t develop is lying to you as well. There’s always that small part of them that get excited when a stormy pattern sets up. It’s why many people chase that degree...they love weather!!

I actually enjoy thunderstorms and severe weather so am always a little disappointed when things don’t materialize.

Like I said, sooner or later that severe weather that you enjoy is going to bring death and destruction. You think that it will never happen to you. So did I, until it did. And I know I'm not the only one on this forum who has suffered great loss from Oklahoma's weather.

Lots of juicy air remains to the W and SW of OKC, and this mess to the north could drop an outflow boundary that could make stuff that pops up later this afternoon even worse.

Outflow boundary from the Kingfisher supercell is meandering south across the Metro right now, currently located between Edmond and The Village. Will be interested to see if this is a focus for any storms in the next hour or two. Currently on radar you can see some elevated showers developing just north of Downtown and then racing off to the NE.

Like I said, sooner or later that severe weather that you enjoy is going to bring death and destruction. You think that it will never happen to you. So did I, until it did. And I know I'm not the only one on this forum who has suffered great loss from Oklahoma's weather.

Its not personal - its not about you. People can feel multiple things for multiple reasons.

The recent hailstorm that pounded Norman. I live in Moore. I had some nice rain and a nice light show. I enjoyed it. I generally enjoy thunderstorms like that. This was my experience in my particular location. I also feel sympathy for those in Norman who were hit harder than I was and had to deal with hail damage. These feelings and experiences are not mutually exclusive and enjoying my piece of the thunderstorm doesn't mean I also enjoyed people getting windows busted out or injured from the hail further south.

I don't know about you all but to me not being from Oklahoma and living in different parts of the country and have family all over this is crazy. Wall to wall coverage for a severe thunderstorm warning would not provide over 2 1/2 hours of coverage anywhere else in the Country. A tornado warning would and there would be cut ins ever 15 minutes or so during a commercial but for over 2 hours NO

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0771.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 215...

Valid 272025Z - 272200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 215 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will remain capable of producing large to very
large hail, damaging wind and a couple tornadoes next couple hours
mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon storms continue developing across
northern OK. Most thunderstorm development has become confined to
the cool side of a couple of outflow boundaries. These storms are
probably slightly elevated, but will remain capable of producing
mainly isolated large hail and damaging wind. Farther west
additional storms are beginning to develop along the cold front
across northwest OK. These storms will be surface based and will
likely become rapidly severe and organized as supercells shortly
after initiation. VWP from Twin Lakes show the mid-level winds have
strengthened to 50 kt and size of low-level hodographs has increased
slightly. The best potential for isolated tornadoes will probably be
with storms that initially develop across western and west central
OK then move east and interact with the modifying outflow boundary
before becoming slightly elevated as they move deeper into the
cooler side of the boundary.

..Dial.. 05/27/2021

I don't know about you all but to me not being from Oklahoma and living in different parts of the country and have family all over this is crazy. Wall to wall coverage for a severe thunderstorm warning would not provide over 2 1/2 hours of coverage anywhere else in the Country. A tornado warning would and there would be cut ins ever 15 minutes or so during a commercial but for over 2 hours NO

Honestly I could never be a local TV met. Imagine standing up there on screen trying to drum up excitement that doesn't exist. I would feel like I was wearing clown makeup. I remember years ago I was watching local coverage of an OKC channel and lightning had struck an oil pump jack structure and it was on fire. The helicopter guys and the TV met were both commentating on it, calling it stationary tornado. It took them way too long to realize it was smoke.

Honestly I could never be a local TV met. Imagine standing up there on screen trying to drum up excitement that doesn't exist. I would feel like I was wearing clown makeup. I remember years ago I was watching local coverage of an OKC channel and lightning had struck an oil pump jack structure and it was on fire. The helicopter guys and the TV met were both commentating on it, calling it stationary tornado. It took them way too long to realize it was smoke.

I'm just worried that after 3 hours of coverage people have tuned out and if stuff fires to the west and interacts with the boundary over okc things could get interesting and no one will be watching any more cause they are already drained

I don't know about you all but to me not being from Oklahoma and living in different parts of the country and have family all over this is crazy. Wall to wall coverage for a severe thunderstorm warning would not provide over 2 1/2 hours of coverage anywhere else in the Country. A tornado warning would and there would be cut ins ever 15 minutes or so during a commercial but for over 2 hours NO

You mean you don't find 2 1/2 hours of windshield wipers compelling?

They can get 4, sometimes 5, windshields on screen at once!

Lots of storms firing now. Extreme flash flood threat just N of OKC metro right now.

Cool front and outflow boundary both developing storms that will train over C OK.

Still looking at a 6-8 p.m. timeframe for OKC proper to get hit, I think. Northern suburbs are already getting in on the action as the complex continually backbuilds. Cold front currently over NW OK will continue to push everything slowly south over time. The complex should gradually become more progressive which should hopefully limit a significant flooding threat for OKC, but with rainfall rates being what they are there will certainly be a risk of flash flooding. Hail/wind reports have so far been somewhat underwhelming IMO, but we still have a lot of instability and decent shear so I would still expect some severe weather. Isolated tornadoes also possible with any outflow boundary interactions.

Mainly flash flood threat continuing as storms coming into all of the OKC metro.

The first toad-floater at my house in what seems like forever.

Drove out to Draper to watch it roll in. Decent shelf and probably some 40-50 mph winds. At this point I would not expect any significant severe threat for the Metro. Like Anonymous said, mainly a flood threat as the southward motion really has not picked up yet, though it should start to do so within an hour or two.

This was an interesting storm system today. Nothing unexpected per the models. There was a ton of energy in the atmosphere today. Lots of shear and lift. Multiple storms had that classic tornado look to them too. Even driving home, I saw structures that would have dropped a tornado if this were early may or April. Yet, it just turned into a flooding event. I wonder why that is? Was it because there was no cap at all so things just blew up too quickly? Not saying I wanted a tornado or massive hail. Just trying to understand how this system evolved and what kept us from having higher end severe weather.

Is OKC going to get more rain or are we pretty much done for the evening?

Should be just about done.

This was an interesting storm system today. Nothing unexpected per the models. There was a ton of energy in the atmosphere today. Lots of shear and lift. Multiple storms had that classic tornado look to them too. Even driving home, I saw structures that would have dropped a tornado if this were early may or April. Yet, it just turned into a flooding event. I wonder why that is? Was it because there was no cap at all so things just blew up too quickly? Not saying I wanted a tornado or massive hail. Just trying to understand how this system evolved and what kept us from having higher end severe weather.

Would be interested in this as well.

Look like to me and I'm no expert but storms formed behind the boundary went up fast and lined out quickly. Even now at 8pm everything is behind the boundary. The boundary shows up well on radar. Ada-Elgin and all the storms are behind it. Eufaula had a brief tornado cause its on the leading edge of the boundary.