Yeah pretty much a big wet mess next week. Looking toward the end of the month/beginning of June, there may be a few more severe weather opportunities before summer kicks in.

Outside of the noon Saturday tests, may be the first year in sometime I haven't heard sirens warning of impending doom!

I think the biggest question mark for Monday is do we recover from Morning storms and how long do the linger.

What’s the hail threat for this first round of showers and storms in the morning? Trying to decide if I need to move my truck in to avoid any hail.

What’s the hail threat for this first round of showers and storms in the morning? Trying to decide if I need to move my truck in to avoid any hail.

Low. Your looking around 7-10am for storms from the latest computer runs. So if you're an early riser and there is something happening you'll be able to move it then

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Renewed convective development is expected to our west Sunday
afternoon and is likely to move into western OK during the
evening. Models show moderate instability along with 30-35 knots
of bulk shear to help maintain storms into western portions of the
area, with instability dropping off substantially across central
OK. It is likely that storms may try to grow upscale into an MCS
across western OK and then weaken as they move eastward into
central OK overnight.

The upper low to our west will continue moving eastward on Monday,
with most of the model guidance showing a shortwave rounding the
base of the trough into west Texas by Monday afternoon. Moisture
recovery behind Sunday night's convection is a bit uncertain as some
models show deeper moisture and better instability getting shunted
well south of our area Monday morning. Assuming we can get
sufficient airmass recovery, storms will likely initiate along the
dryline late Monday afternoon across the TX panhandle and spread
eastward into western OK and western north TX into the evening.
The mid to upper flow is not all that strong but should be
sufficient for supercells with initial discrete development, with
an accompanying risk for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two. Upscale growth into another MCS is possible by
later Monday evening which would then move across much of the rest
of the area Monday night, bringing with it the risk for damaging
wind gusts.

Depending on how convection evolves Monday night, Tuesday may end up
with a lull in convection for central and northern OK if the airmass
is sufficiently worked over. Storms may linger into Tuesday
afternoon and evening along residual outflow across southern and
southeastern portions of the area as the upper trough remains to our
west. The flood threat will need to be watched for these areas as
several rounds of convection are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

Occasional rain chances continue Wednesday into next weekend as
upper troughing reloads to our west and upper ridging builds over
the eastern US. This should keep moisture flowing northward with
embedded shortwave impulses likely leading to periods of enhanced
convection. Occasional severe weather is possible but no real signal
exists in the guidance at this range to narrow down specific days
with higher chances. Flooding will also be a concern over the next
week as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to several
inches of rain, with localized amounts of greater than 5"
possible.

Still not seeing anything to make me particularly concerned about the severe weather threat for the OKC area with this pattern. Will update if anything changes my thinking, but seems likely that the main severe weather threat should focus over Western OK and the Texas Panhandle.

The flooding threat is definitely real here, though.

Still not seeing anything to make me particularly concerned about the severe weather threat for the OKC area with this pattern. Will update if anything changes my thinking, but seems likely that the main severe weather threat should focus over Western OK and the Texas Panhandle.

The flooding threat is definitely real here, though.

YEP. Unless we don't have storms Monday morning or the atmosphere can recover from Morning storms then things might be able to get up into the Metro but that is a Big IF

Nice soaking rain today, amounts ranged from about half an inch in the NW suburbs to over two inches SE of I-44. This complex is slowly moving out and will have stabilized the atmosphere enough to prevent any additional storm formation over the area today. Next MCS makes a run at the Metro from the Texas Panhandle early tomorrow morning. Most model runs have this diving SW of the area, but we may see some storms forms on the north flank around sunrise tomorrow.

Overnight tomorrow/early Tuesday Morning we will see yet another MCS move into the area from the west, and this one will likely be able to maintain its strength enough for a damaging wind threat. This complex may also stall out/backbuild either near or just south of the Metro during the day on Tuesday, potentially causing some major flooding issues.

Specifics get very murky after this timeframe, but expect continued storm chances all the way into next weekend.

Enhanced risk for the 3 counties in far Southwestern Oklahoma for Monday. Altus and south and west from there. I-35 slight risk for winds maybe hail. Tornado chances for Oklahoma is very very low unless you down by Altus. In fact SPC doesn't even have a risk for Tornadoes in Oklahoma Tomorrow minus those 3 counties (Jackson and Harmon maybe Greer)

Yeah pretty much a big wet mess next week. Looking toward the end of the month/beginning of June, there may be a few more severe weather opportunities before summer kicks in.

But the June 15th, 1990 Stillwater tornado reminds me every year not to write off mid June as meaning the threat of tornadoes have subsided. I wouldn't trust it until July 4th. Even after that, even though it's quite likely there will be no tornadoes, it doesn't mean the summer heat might whip up a storm with very high winds that won't blow something down.

Big time stuff down across NW TX this afternoon. Should evolve into an eventual MCS that pushes ENE toward OK, but likely loses steam as it approaches C OK. More rain is good, though. Flood watch out this week for a solid portion of the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021051712/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

But the June 15th, 1990 Stillwater tornado reminds me every year not to write off mid June as meaning the threat of tornadoes have subsided. I wouldn't trust it until July 4th. Even after that, even though it's quite likely there will be no tornadoes, it doesn't mean the summer heat might whip up a storm with very high winds that won't blow something down.

That's true. I was mostly talking about the classic May pattern were use to(Or used to know. lol) . Next week we will have a low to our west and a ridge to our east so we look to have some chances of storms.


Rain chances will continue to slowly shift into our eastern zones
Thur as the closed low fills and finally lifts northeastward into
the Central Plains. Increasing heights into the weekend will
result in a warm muggy trend. At least Chc PoPs will return to a
large portion of our FA late in the week into the weekend, on the
western fringe of an upper high to our east and on the eastern
fringe of a deep, broad closed low to our west. Several
perturbations within this southerly mid to upper flow are
expected to move over the southern and central plains during this
time, with plenty of moisture.

10:30am and clearing has already started in far Southwestern Oklahoma. Could get very interesting down there.

10:30am and clearing has already started in far Southwestern Oklahoma. Could get very interesting down there.

Mainly just a hail threat most likely.

HRRR hinting that most, if not all of the storms, will dissipate before making it to okc. Pretty crazy if that happens given what the thinking was last week.

I know we have a stormy pattern all week, but this spring has been very strange. Hit the lake this past weekend, and the water was colder for the time of year than anytime I can remember. Jumping in without first testing the water didn't work out well...lol. Things kinda....disappeared. It seems like this spring has been very quiet. That's not even with respect to tornadoes. Even simple thunderstorms have been seemingly sparse. Be it the track or timing of these systems, or even maybe the crazy winter we had, it has been an unusual spring....

HRRR hinting that most, if not all of the storms, will dissipate before making it to okc. Pretty crazy if that happens given what the thinking was last week.

I know we have a stormy pattern all week, but this spring has been very strange. Hit the lake this past weekend, and the water was colder for the time of year than anytime I can remember. Jumping in without first testing the water didn't work out well...lol. Things kinda....disappeared. It seems like this spring has been very quiet. That's not even with respect to tornadoes. Even simple thunderstorms have been seemingly sparse. Be it the track or timing of these systems, or even maybe the crazy winter we had, it has been an unusual spring....

Yeah a lot changed in a week but we won't go there and there isn't really anything jumping out for the rest of the month right now either. Wednesday evening in far Western Oklahoma and the Instability does increase middle of next week so we will have to see how all that pans out but nothing is jumping off the page as of now.

HRRR hinting that most, if not all of the storms, will dissipate before making it to okc. Pretty crazy if that happens given what the thinking was last week.

I know we have a stormy pattern all week, but this spring has been very strange. Hit the lake this past weekend, and the water was colder for the time of year than anytime I can remember. Jumping in without first testing the water didn't work out well...lol. Things kinda....disappeared. It seems like this spring has been very quiet. That's not even with respect to tornadoes. Even simple thunderstorms have been seemingly sparse. Be it the track or timing of these systems, or even maybe the crazy winter we had, it has been an unusual spring....

This has already been the latest OKC has ever gone without a high temperature above 83 degrees (previous record was May 15th), and we stand a decent chance of adding at least another week on to that.

And I agree, really no longer seeing too much of a heavy rain threat over the next 24-36 hours. Things can always change, but strong signals for the main focus to be well down into Central Texas.

Wow the last two runs of the HRRR show only scattered and no squall line coming into the metro now. New Mesoscale Discussion at 7pm says storms in Texas are moving East.

Far Western Oklahoma and I mean Far Western Oklahoma could have a slight Tornado Risk Wednesday Evening as the low pressure finally moves off to the Northeast. Texas Panhandle still looks better but might creep into Oklahoma. Other than that some showers/storms might form North of the Metro and move up into Kansas. Nothing to get excited about for today.

Holy cow, we went from flash flood watches and likely inches and inches of rain over the next week to now the forecast is showing almost nothing.

Holy cow, we went from flash flood watches and likely inches and inches of rain over the next week to now the forecast is showing almost nothing.

No joke! What a bust!! Anybody know what happened? Why did everything fall apart? Did the storm take a bad track or the moisture not really come in?

No joke! What a bust!! Anybody know what happened? Why did everything fall apart? Did the storm take a bad track or the moisture not really come in?

Weaker System and main thing was no Jet Stream. If you notice it hasn't been very windy at the surface. It also hasn't been very windy aloft either. Also the storms in Texas has robbed Oklahoma of Moisture. Basically there been no lift and no instability

Texas has been getting hammered with rain by this weather pattern. Central OK has also been in a weird precipitation void over the last two days as most of the rest of the state has picked up some amount of measurable precipitation. But still, this has been a fairly breathtaking bust relative to what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.

I do think we'll have some decent storm chances tomorrow. Will be similar to the popcorn storms that happened in North Central OK this afternoon. Hit or miss coverage, but very heavy rainfall rates for anyone that does get under a storm. Only severe weather threat would be isolated downburst winds. Very similar to what we typically see in terms of storms here in July and August.

Texas has been getting hammered with rain by this weather pattern. Central OK has also been in a weird precipitation void over the last two days as most of the rest of the state has picked up some amount of measurable precipitation. But still, this has been a fairly breathtaking bust relative to what the models were showing just a couple of days ago.

I do think we'll have some decent storm chances tomorrow. Will be similar to the popcorn storms that happened in North Central OK this afternoon. Hit or miss coverage, but very heavy rainfall rates for anyone that does get under a storm. Only severe weather threat would be isolated downburst winds. Very similar to what we typically see in terms of storms here in July and August.

I was just getting ready to post that the computer models on the last couple of runs have been showing pop up storms more in the Metro for tomorrow. Today they were in Northern Oklahoma tomorrow they look to be more Central Oklahoma. Far Far western Oklahoma still looks a little interesting late night around midnight. Depending on which model you want to go with. I could maybe see a Thunderstorm warning out that way. Slight risk though.

pretty good soaking this morning

So who wants to run down to Norman and hit the hard reset button on their super computer that calculates out all these models. I checked the HRRR last night and there was no indication of rain this morning. The NAM showed a spotty pop up storm but overall, nothing.

I’m really enjoying the rain this morning but the forecasts on this system have been whack! Again, it’s been a weird spring.

Yes, a nice soaker this morning near Penn Square.

Yes, the rain is great, but I'm ready for 90's and sun. And lots of it.

Yes, the rain is great, but I'm ready for 90's and sun. And lots of it.

My Bermuda grass agrees.

So who wants to run down to Norman and hit the hard reset button on their super computer that calculates out all these models. I checked the HRRR last night and there was no indication of rain this morning. The NAM showed a spotty pop up storm but overall, nothing.

I’m really enjoying the rain this morning but the forecasts on this system have been whack! Again, it’s been a weird spring.

I think we rely on Computer models way to much anymore. The movie twister got a lot of things wrong but one thing it got right is when Bill Paxton was holding up the sand and seeing which way the wind was blowing. Back when I was growing up that is how you predicted the weather. You felt the atmosphere and felt what it was doing. You looked at the clouds you smelled the atmosphere. There were no 20 different computer models. Now I think everyone sits behind a computer and just looks at computer models and just goes with it even when it is a week away.

Don't get me wrong I think computer models are a good for day of even day before. I just think it's a combo of actually going outside and checking computer models is lost. I know we send weather balloons up and I get all that but mother nature will always find a way if she wants. Me and a couple friends were talking 4 hours before the big norman hail storm. We were talking about how hazy it was outside and how the sun was coming out and how we felt there was going to be a storm somewhere and bam 4 hours later big storm.

Eastern Oklahoma tomorrow could have a small quick spin up tornado risk tomorrow as a compact low moves due North out of Texas. There will be a lot of spin in the atmosphere. Some sunshine out way could increase instability just enough. Low level shear and vorticity will be maximized near/immediately NE of the low.

My Bermuda grass agrees.

Between this weirdly cool spring and the extreme weather we had this winter, the grass and plants have had a little bit of a slower time getting going this year.

Northeast and Eastern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon slight tornado risk. Very Slight as of now. Payne briefly mentioned it tonight also. HRRR really shows the spin of the low moving up US-75. Nam nest showing storms also now. No means is this a major event and still most likely will need some sun but when profiles look good.

Low, scattered, and unorganized storm chances look to remain in the forecast. Not everyone will see rain everyday, it will much be like the last week where you just need to check the radar before heading out.

Temperatures remain amazing for this time of year. In fact, it looks like temperatures will be warmest end of next week and then cool off considerably for the beginning of June.

Enjoy it, because there will be a time this summer where the death ridge builds and we fall back into drought and temps near 100F.

Someone send annoymous forecast to the newsstations so they will quit talking about next week already.

Someone send annoymous forecast to the newsstations so they will quit talking about next week already.

Oh no your didn't. :)

Low, scattered, and unorganized storm chances look to remain in the forecast. Not everyone will see rain everyday, it will much be like the last week where you just need to check the radar before heading out.

Temperatures remain amazing for this time of year. In fact, it looks like temperatures will be warmest end of next week and then cool off considerably for the beginning of June.

Enjoy it, because there will be a time this summer where the death ridge builds and we fall back into drought and temps near 100F.

Noooooooooooooo

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/1395433867495067655 Not OKC but Tulsa area

Low, scattered, and unorganized storm chances look to remain in the forecast. Not everyone will see rain everyday, it will much be like the last week where you just need to check the radar before heading out.

Temperatures remain amazing for this time of year. In fact, it looks like temperatures will be warmest end of next week and then cool off considerably for the beginning of June.

Enjoy it, because there will be a time this summer where the death ridge builds and we fall back into drought and temps near 100F.

Speaking of heat, looks like the east coast is going through an early heat wave this year. 90s up all the way up to Boston within the next week.

Someone send annoymous forecast to the newsstations so they will quit talking about next week already.

I don't keep up with the local mets, but I am guessing maybe they are looking at the 7 days away Thursday/Friday severe potentials?

I don't keep up with the local mets, but I am guessing maybe they are looking at the 7 days away Thursday/Friday severe potentials?

Yeah, Wednesday - Thursday - Friday. (Although It might just be Wednesday - Thursday)

Here's a tweet from NWS Norman from yesterday:
"The wet pattern is forecast to continue into middle of next week, with rain chances each day and high temperatures will remain below average to average for this time of year. Remarkably, the long-range guidance suggests severe weather potential will remain low."

I'm not complaining but for at least the last two springs we've had very few severe storms.

I've barely even heard thunder.

Very strange for Oklahoma.

I'm not complaining but for at least the last two springs we've had very few severe storms.

I've barely even heard thunder.

Very strange for Oklahoma.

It's cause the OKC Thunder is down...lol

I'm afraid the Hype train is really going to get going. The media won't call it hype but when it's more than 3-4 days out to me it's hype. That being said GFS tonight shows storms next Wednesday, Thursday, break Friday then storms again the next 3 days. As Payne would say. HANG ON.

I'm afraid the Hype train is really going to get going. The media won't call it hype but when it's more than 3-4 days out to me it's hype. That being said GFS tonight shows storms next Wednesday, Thursday, break Friday then storms again the next 3 days. As Payne would say. HANG ON.

I dunno. I don't feel like the signals are that strong for storms next week. The GFS shows off and on bouts of rain throughout the week, but there is nothing really signaling a pronounced dry line or anything. Even the relative humidity isn't that impressive. Looks like it's indicating some decent CAPE. We'll see though. Temperatures look like they'll be up there which always adds fuel to the fire.

I dunno. I don't feel like the signals are that strong for storms next week. The GFS shows off and on bouts of rain throughout the week, but there is nothing really signaling a pronounced dry line or anything. Even the relative humidity isn't that impressive. Looks like it's indicating some decent CAPE. We'll see though. Temperatures look like they'll be up there which always adds fuel to the fire.

True but there is enough there to get the media all excited. SPC not so much.

True but there is enough there to get the media all excited. SPC not so much.

KFOR not getting excited. What local media are you referring to? Honestly, YOU are the only one hyping anything.

Any reason to be concerned for tomorrow if we're out at Scissortail for most of the morning? I'm guessing it's just hiit or miss rain showers from the south with little chance of lightning.

KFOR not getting excited. What local media are you referring to? Honestly, YOU are the only one hyping anything.

Ah Keep up and read past post. The hype train was alive and well a week before this past Tuesday. And I'm not hyping I'm just pointing my the media will by hyping a bit of a difference.

Ah Keep up and read past post. The hype train was alive and well a week before this past Tuesday. And I'm not hyping I'm just pointing my the media will by hyping a bit of a difference.

I AM keeping up. Right, hype for last Tuesday, yes, but I am talking about the upcoming week. And here is the NWS from their overnight forecast on Twitter: "Isolated to scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will continue into next week. Oddly for May, there's no severe weather currently in the forecast."

Here is snapshot of tomorrow afternoon. Pop up style showers and storms, nothing organized. It will much be like what you see on radar right now (3:30pm Friday).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021052118/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_22.png

I AM keeping up. Right, hype for last Tuesday, yes, but I am talking about the upcoming week. And here is the NWS from their overnight forecast on Twitter: "Isolated to scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will continue into next week. Oddly for May, there's no severe weather currently in the forecast."

I'm agreeing there is no real good chance next week yet however it still will be brought up tonight you watch. The tease will be about the tornado risk next week or storm chances increase next week. There be something crazy thrown out there. Anyway this was from today.

(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

No significant changes to the long term have been made. By
Sunday, a well-established mid-level ridge will dominate the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys as a strong mid-level trough traverses the
Desert Southwest. This downstream ridge will continue to build,
and will limit the troughs movement over the Southern Plains. By
doing so, large scale ascent will be limited and organized severe
potential will be very low. Weak isentropic ascent, in addition
to rich low-level moisture, will foster some isolated and
scattered showers throughout the period across the area. The
aforementioned trough will move into the Central/High plains early
next week, where quasi-zonal flow will be over the area.
Southerly surface flow will persist through the long term as mid-
level flow across the Rockies will foster surface troughing.
Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected at least through the
middle of next week, which will keep temperatures around normal.

SPC outlining 15% probability for severe weather across large part of OK for Thursday night.

SPC outlining 15% probability for severe weather across large part of OK for Thursday night.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is looking like a typical summertime MCS out of the NW, no? Higher hail and wind threat as opposed to tornadic supercell development?

Yes a cluster of storms is more likely given the timing of the event. However, it could still mean tail-end embedded cyclonic storm chances. It is far too early to really have a good grasp on storm modes.

Am I the only one a little concerned for Tomorrow (Tuesday). Far as Thursday go surface winds should stay south southwest so low tornado threat low for now

Tomorrow still looks really mediocre to me, would be surprised if any storms that develop can even sustain themselves into OKC. Thursday does have my interest because we *finally* seem to have decent wind shear parameters.

Slight Risk for far W OK with any storms sparking from outflow boundaries in the area. Could see dying storm cluster meandering about this evening.

SPC marking Thursday evening as Enhanced Risk with hatched significant severe marker for large part of OK. This will be for large hail and tornado potential from supercells.