New thread time. Like the latter posts in the March thread have mentioned. Drought and Fire danger increasing every day there is no rain and increasing winds.

Perhaps some relief on horizon around the 15th.

Essentially extreme fire danger persisting the next 24-36 hours through Wednesday night. Allergy sufferers will continue to inhale flying dust and pollen.

The slightest of rain chances tonight here in C OK. Perhaps a quick shower with a passing storm. May be another glimmer or rainfall hope Saturday afternoon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021040606/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_26.png

Spring severe storm season in central Oklahoma is canceled.

Come back next year!

Spring severe storm season in central Oklahoma is canceled.

Come back next year!

For most of April anyway. Seems consistent with the trend that has occurred the past few years, where its quiet in April/early May and we sometimes see activity Mid to late May.

May is easily more active than April on average, though. I'd actually argue that June is as well, though April probably has the greater tornado threat. In any case, we can have a quiet April and an active May - that's what happened in 2011, which had a very similar weather pattern to what we've had thus far this spring (though patterns are always subject to change).

And keep in mind it only takes a couple of big outbreak days to make a big difference in numbers.

Hot today near 80 ahead of the storm. Storm comes through Friday into Saturday, severe storms likely developing somewhere just E/SE of C OK tomorrow. We will have to watch for any towers that try and get going further west of that area as there is a slight chance the boundary could ignite directly over C OK instead.

Strong N/NW winds will come in behind leading to a cooler Saturday with temps in the uppers 60s, but sunshine with the wind.

Better rain chances for majority of the state around 14th/15th and cooler temperatures.

What’s the story tomorrow? Lots of cape and instability but lower winds up high? Not enough shear for big supercells or tornadoes?

I actually think it's a good setup for severe weather but the cold front will probably clear the Metro before the cap breaks. The far southern & eastern suburbs like Norman and Harrah probably stand the best chance of getting something. Certainly SE Oklahoma into the Arklatex looks to have an active day.

SPC has moved the Slight Risk west to include the OKC Metro. I still feel that initiation will likely happen just east of the city, but it will be a close call. Initiation will occur between 4-6 p.m. and the earlier things get started, the better chance OKC stands of getting in on the action. Main threat from anything that forms will be very large hail. This will be a quick event for our area, as the cold front will blow through by 7 p.m. and everything will move out to the east. Very gusty north winds behind the cold front will die down tomorrow morning and leave us with a gorgeous weekend.

Cold front is blasting through the panhandle right now. Triple point directly over SW OK. This should swing the cold front through C OK by around 3pm. Perhaps an elevated shower or storm behind that, but the main action will likely all be SE of OKC. Dangerous setup across AR, LA, and MS.

Extreme fire danger and blowing dust behind the front. Especially across W/NW OK and into the TX PH.

Yeah going to be interesting to see where exactly this line fires up and whether the metro avoids the early hail threat.

The boundary is moving a little slower than I thought, this is strange because the low is actually drifting due north across SW/W OK. There may be an extremely small circumstantial window between 3-5pm just near OKC for a storm to get up.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021040916/hrrr_mslp_wind_scus_8.png

Cold front is blasting through the panhandle right now. Triple point directly over SW OK. This should swing the cold front through C OK by around 3pm. Perhaps an elevated shower or storm behind that, but the main action will likely all be SE of OKC. Dangerous setup across AR, LA, and MS.

Extreme fire danger and blowing dust behind the front. Especially across W/NW OK and into the TX PH.

Could you define what a triple point is and how to identify it on a map? Thanks!

Low pressure system is currently sitting over Caddo County with the cold front right along a Cherokee to Camargo to Cheyenne line in NW Oklahoma. Short-range models all seem to be alternating between showing storms blowing up either directly over or directly east of OKC. Just a really complex setup that’s basically a total crapshoot for the Metro. I’m probably a bit more confident in OKC’s storm chances than I was a couple of hours ago, but this is basically as 50/50 as it gets. As mentioned previously, the farther east you are, the better your storm chances will be. Main thread still seems to be very large hail, and it’s still looking like a 4-7 p.m. timeframe. I’ll probably be driving out to the Harrah area once I’m done with work at 5 as my guess is that area has a better than even chance of seeing something interesting.

Could you define what a triple point is and how to identify it on a map? Thanks!

This is how NWS defines it.

Triple Point
The intersection point between two boundaries (dry line, outflow boundary, cold front, etc.), often a focus for thunderstorm development. Triple point also may refer to a point on the gust front of a supercell, where the warm moist inflow, the rain-cooled outflow from the forward flank downdraft, and the rear flank downdraft all intersect; this point is a favored location for tornado development (or redevelopment).

Look for where the dryline, cold front and warm front intercept.
16821

Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for the entire Metro within the next hour, per a Mesoscale Discussion from the SPC

MD is out. Watch is coming for what looks like I-44 corridor and to the SE. I can see towers attempting to go up west of the OKC metro right now.

Anything that develops ahead of the coldfront will have a good chance at producing large hail. Cold front, if fast enough, will likely undercut early storms and cause rapid dissipation. Then a more traditional MCS will develop heading into SE OK where large hail and heavy rain will be the main threat.

So for OKC, watch out W for storms as you commute home.

It feels like a storm is coming.

Humid and still.

Watch is out. Severe hail probability is the highlight of the watch.

Two supercells going up now W of OKC. One near Okarche and the other over Hinton as of 4:04pm.

Based on the severe thunderstorm warning polygon, that Hinton one looks to be the main aggressor towards the metro.

Large hail on the cell SW of Stillwater.

El Reno cell has sunk due south and is going to go just south of Minco with the hail.

OKC area looks like unorganized storms coming in from the W at this time.

The wind shifted and picked up and the temperature is dropping.

But it looks like OKC is going to get skunked on badly-needed rain.

Not liking the looks of this week. Seems like our rain chances are gradually coming down the closer we get to it. Hopefully we'll get some much needed rain...

Decent shot of rain for southern half of the state Tuesday night. More chances later in the week for the rest of the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021041212/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_45.png

Scattered showers beginning to form now across NW TX. These will spread NE heading into the night. Then a break during the day Wednesday, before one more weaker wave overnight into Thursday. Short-range models emphasizing I-40 corridor and some points south for heaviest totals.

Another round of more widespread rain and cooler temperatures comes through Friday evening to add to these totals.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021041318/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

Scattered showers beginning to form now across NW TX. These will spread NE heading into the night. Then a break during the day Wednesday, before one more weaker wave overnight into Thursday. Short-range models emphasizing I-40 corridor and some points south for heaviest totals.

Another round of more widespread rain and cooler temperatures comes through Friday evening to add to these totals.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021041318/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

4pm Dewpoint is only 30. We have a ways to go yet before we seen rain.

A few storms are severe for rain and wind at this time. Should be some good rainfall under these cells. Much needed.

Recorded 0.78" at my home weather station near downtown Edmond. Really enjoyed the rain and non-severe storms from home.

40 on Tuesday, Winter will never end :mad:

I’m seeing highs of 52 and low of 36 from weather channel. Definitely not excited about it but I will say this is one of the first years I’ve seen where it didn’t get below freezing in April and I’m just fine with that. In fact I got a little antsy and put all my tropical plants outside(I have around 50) in the middle of March and haven’t had to cover them up at all which is rare.

Looks like Payne is the only one going really low next Tuesday and Wednesday. High of 40. Low of 30. And that is for okc not northwest Oklahoma

As of right now, looks like this general cool/rainy pattern we're currently in will move out next weekend and be replaced with a warmer/drier pattern. In the meantime, will definitely take the rain and this Sunday/Monday both look to be fairly nice.

Yes this rain is much needed. A little more than an inch here in C OK in the last few days.

C OK region is still almost 2" to the dry side from normal rainfall this year.

I wouldn't mind a warmer/dryer pattern, although I may start complaining at the end of May if were bone dry. Hopefully that won't happen, we'll see.

Looks like severe weather may try to make a bit of a comeback Friday.

Longer term, I have seen a few meteorologist chatting on the web that the pattern for May looks a little bit more favorable for severe weather. Big scale atmospheric picture anyway, models are not very accurate 2 plus weeks into the future.

Cold front is blasting through N OK right now. Tomorrow morning will be cold.

And yes, SPC outlining Slight risk on the Day5.

Cold front is blasting through N OK right now. Tomorrow morning will be cold.

And yes, SPC outlining Slight risk on the Day5.

Friday severe weather looks too MEH. Don't think it will be unstable enough but things can change it's only Monday. Next Tuesday looks better but way way way too far out.

Friday severe weather looks too MEH. Don't think it will be unstable enough but things can change it's only Monday. Next Tuesday looks better but way way way too far out.

Looks like more steady rain with some embedded thunderstorms. Great opportunity for most of the state to get a good soaking.

As of Tuesday morning Friday is still looking MEH to me. SPC must be looking at different things than me and I sure they are but instability is pretty low. Moisture is pretty low. Maybe Sw Oklahoma/Red River area. Next Tuesday looks great but still a weak away and more for Eastern Oklahoma as of now but like I said it's a week away so don't get too excited it will change a thousand times

As of Tuesday morning Friday is still looking MEH to me. SPC must be looking at different things than me and I sure they are but instability is pretty low. Moisture is pretty low. Maybe Sw Oklahoma/Red River area. Next Tuesday looks great but still a weak away and more for Eastern Oklahoma as of now but like I said it's a week away so don't get too excited it will change a thousand times

I'm OK with less chance of severe. That means it delays a bunch of costly repairs just a little longer. ;)

Tuesday Night update. Friday is looking much better than it did this morning. NAM is showing better Cape than the GFS but the GFS is showing a lot more instability than it did this morning also. Once again it will change but it does look better for Friday

Tuesday Night update. Friday is looking much better than it did this morning. NAM is showing better Cape than the GFS but the GFS is showing a lot more instability than it did this morning also. Once again it will change but it does look better for Friday

I’m thinking cloud cover and cooler temps in the low 60’s could limit instability Friday.

Next Tuesday definitely has my attention, especially if something close to the ECMWF solution ends up panning out.

Did anywhere in OKC dip to freezing? I’m at 34 here in Edmond and thank god because I got too drunk last night to put any of my plants in the greenhouse.

SPC maintaining Slight Risk with a large hatched area across OK for Friday. Large hail on initial development and eventual MCS producing damaging wind are primary threats.

Some have mentioned next week above. The coming Tuesday, SPC is already outlining 15% probabilities for severe weather across large portion of OK. SPC very rarely issues these in the day 4-8, let alone on the back end of it.

Tuesday feels like one of the those boom or bust days.

I’m thinking cloud cover and cooler temps in the low 60’s could limit instability Friday.

Yes the best instability looks to be red river south. Dry line sets up from about Lawton South thru Wichita Falls and south from there. It could creep into Central Oklahoma but as of Wednesday Morning it looks best for red river area and south pretty much most of Texas for Friday. However once again things can quickly being 2 days out.

Norman's area forecast discussion for today was a bit concerning re: Tuesday, 4/27


The ECMWF has been consistently portraying a rather dangerous situation, while the GFS has been less disturbing in its outlook. However, the two seem to be converging more into the ECMWF scenario, so we will need to keep a close eye on Tuesday`s storm potential, as details gradually become clearer

Planning to do outdoor activities either Friday or Saturday just west of Tulsa. Planning to be done by 6.

Friday is preferred, but Saturday works as well. How does rain/storms look in that area before 6? From my understanding, the storms will be late Friday.

My guess is bulk of shower and storms will be gone by Saturday morning for the state. Cooler with some low clouds likely until afternoon.

Enhanced risk for metro area today. Main threats are wind and hail.

HRRR is consistently showing a very stormy evening with multiple rounds moving through the Metro between 4 p.m. and Midnight. Best chance of wind damage should come with the last round around 8-11 p.m. particularly if it organizes into a bow echo before moving through the area. Could also see some hail, especially with the earlier elevated storms which will likely lift northeast through the area between 4:00 and 7:00. Tornado threat looks very low and would likely be limited to weak spinups within the bow echo. Finally, some street flooding looks possible given the duration of the event.

All precipitation should end by sunrise at the latest, and clouds will decrease throughout the day tomorrow giving us a beautiful spring weekend.

What SEMIweather said. I would again on the quick spin up tornadoes expect for maybe something down around Altus/Lawton/Wichita Falls. Something down there might MIGHT be a little stronger.

Today, early evening the threat will be hail from supercells moving NNE with the warm front from SW and S OK. Best area for this looks to be around Norman and just south. But all of OKC should watch the radar.

Later in the night, we will likely have a damaging wind MCS event coming out of W OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021042314/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

What SEMIweather said. I would again on the quick spin up tornadoes expect for maybe something down around Altus/Lawton/Wichita Falls. Something down there might MIGHT be a little stronger.

Yeah, should have added that my post was specific to the OKC Metro. The Texoma area around Lawton, Altus, Wichita Falls, etc. will be in the warm sector for a longer period of time and does have a higher tornado threat.

First round of storms is just over an hour away from OKC. Intensifying, but not yet severe at this time

That was kinda weak...

Last few runs of the HRRR have been showing a less organized convective system this evening which would reduce the wind threat. Should be a good rainmaker either way, expecting widespread 0.5” - 1.5” totals with isolated areas approaching the 2” mark.

C'mon rain!!