View Full Version : April 2021 - General Weather Discussion



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FighttheGoodFight
04-23-2021, 03:57 PM
Getting pretty soaked in Norman for the last few hours. Thank you rain. I will ask for just rain please, none of those super heavy winds!

SEMIweather
04-23-2021, 04:13 PM
Next round of storms currently along a Chickasha to Purcell line is looking more promising from a rain perspective. This should lift NNE and affect most of the Metro over the next hour. Western suburbs might miss out.

Anonymous.
04-23-2021, 05:13 PM
That should be the bulk of severe chances for OKC. Big time storms down in SW OK and NW TX.

We should see generic storms continue to develop and move across C OK as the low tracks directly over us. Really nice rainfall!

TheTravellers
04-23-2021, 05:57 PM
Not really nice rainfall, OG&E sucks, barely even rained around 36th/May and power's out, so ****ing tired of their crappy infrastructure around this area.

Plutonic Panda
04-23-2021, 06:00 PM
Is that it? We barely got anything in north Edmond

SEMIweather
04-23-2021, 06:08 PM
No, the arc of storms currently out in the Texas Panhandle will be our main action later this evening. Remains to be seen how severe they’ll be, but we’ll almost certainly get some more storms regardless.

Plutonic Panda
04-23-2021, 06:28 PM
Okay thanks for the response. I’m looking forward to some good gully washers.

SEMIweather
04-23-2021, 06:30 PM
Yeah, hoping for something good. Of course after I said in an earlier post that the western suburbs might get missed, that ended up being exactly where the main storm in the complex tracked lmao. So Yukon got about 0.75”, rest of the Metro anywhere from 0.10-0.30” or so.

kukblue1
04-23-2021, 08:45 PM
Have to throw KOCO under the bus. Sorry if anyone on this board is from KOCO but last night Damon and this morning Conder were saying we are likely going to see tornado warnings in the metro. Now they did say if the one computer model panned out but still saying stuff like that is total BS . People are just going to hear the big stuff. We haven't and probably won't even go under a Thunderstorm watch.

Bunty
04-23-2021, 11:37 PM
Most of Stillwater as of 11:30 pm has gone over 1 inch of rain, according to wunderground stations.

C_M_25
04-25-2021, 09:00 AM
David Payne has been hyping Tuesday’s storm since last week. Curious what the thought is so far from the group. Definitely looks like a system is moving in. Curious if it will be the tornado outbreak that news 9 has been predicting for a week now.

kukblue1
04-25-2021, 11:18 AM
Meteorologist Damon Lane ()posted on facebook Sunday Morning)

Tuesday PM: SLIGHT RISK for all areas in yellow(with a good chance of an upgrade to ENHANCED) . Tornadoes and very large hail possible. The severe risk will remain overnight with a decreasing tornado risk and increase in hail and heavy rain.

This is the kind of crap I'm talking about. Map was OKC west. It's only Sunday morning and he is talking about an Enhanced risk and Tornadoes. The weather models don't even agree yet on what is going to happen. If you listen to the National Weather Service they even say so. Here is the NWS: A broad, high amplitude trough
will approach from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as can
be the case this time of year with the evolution and progression
of cutoff lows, models are depicting quite a bit of differences in
potential/timing of severe weather. What they do agree on is the
potential for a long duration heavy rain event with the potential
for flooding becoming the main story mid to late week. The GFS is
faster, keeping more energy in the main band of westerlies and
allowing a cold front to move across the region late on Tuesday,
consolidating convection ahead of and along this front Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The potential for severe weather and flooding
rains would be mainly confined to central and southern parts of
Oklahoma, with heaviest rains over southeast Oklahoma into
northeast Texas. The ECM is much slower with both the front and
progression of the upper low, yielding a larger area for potential
severe weather (all of Oklahoma and western north Texas) and
continued heavy rain potential all the way through Friday. The
WRF/NAM is closer to the GFS through the end of its run, but much
stronger with the cap on Tuesday and suppressing most if not all
convection ahead of the front. Current forecast has PoPs across a
broad region from late Tuesday through late Thursday, and given
uncertainty, this will not be changed much.

It's sweep coming up so HYPE HYPE HYPE is what they do. Even though if you call them out on it they will say it's not hype but it's hype

jn1780
04-25-2021, 01:54 PM
Tuesday is a big deal..............4 days ago

As often happens as you get closer to an event, models start getting a better handle on it. Now it looks more like a heavy rain maker.

SEMIweather
04-25-2021, 02:56 PM
Agree, looks like a heavy rain threat, maybe some isolated severe weather but certainly not looking like a big tornado threat.

kukblue1
04-26-2021, 10:58 AM
Just waves of storms as I see it right now with very little Severe Weather. There still a few models out there are trying to say we have big storms but MEH. Too many negatives than positive IMO

Anonymous.
04-27-2021, 12:03 PM
Flood watch issued for C and SC OK. As other posters have mentioned, multiple waves of thunderstorms are expected to begin this evening. Other than localized flooding, greatest threat is hail and wind with these. Most of the organized supercell potential appears to be across NW TX.

This will be very welcomes rain and should really help out in getting us back to normal for this time of year.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021042712/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

Roger S
04-27-2021, 03:41 PM
This will be very welcomes rain and should really help out in getting us back to normal for this time of year.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021042712/hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

It's a mixed blessing.... It's going to finish filling my pond in Carter County that was 10' low but we just brought in tons of dirt and have a dozer on site to get a new home started.... This is going to set us back

FighttheGoodFight
04-27-2021, 03:44 PM
It's a mixed blessing.... It's going to finish filling my pond in Carter County that was 10' low but we just brought in tons of dirt and have a dozer on site to get a new home started.... This is going to set us back

I’m crying thinking about your lumber bill on a new build.

Roger S
04-27-2021, 03:59 PM
I’m crying thinking about your lumber bill on a new build.

Metal home with metal wall studs.... Because it's about the same price for a sturdier product and cheaper insurance

SEMIweather
04-27-2021, 06:13 PM
The storm complex currently stretching from Gracemont to El Reno will likely be our main action this evening. Severe threat looks marginal, wouldn't expect anything more than some isolated hail reports. Given the anomalously high moisture levels for late April, expecting heavy rain to be the main issue.

C_M_25
04-27-2021, 06:40 PM
I feel like the latest model runs are starting to diminish the storms/rain a bit.

kukblue1
04-27-2021, 07:19 PM
The info on this board is better than you get from the TV people much more accurate.

kukblue1
04-27-2021, 08:20 PM
Keep an eye on Tomorrow. Might be a sleeper day. If and it's a big if right now we recover from morning storms it could be more interesting than today. Today was capped and really too cool again at least for most of the state. Exception being down by the red river

C_M_25
04-27-2021, 08:52 PM
Keep an eye on Tomorrow. Might be a sleeper day. If and it's a big if right now we recover from morning storms it could be more interesting than today. Today was capped and really too cool again at least for most of the state. Exception being down by the red river

Agreed. Wouldn’t be surprised if there is a conditional threat for a weak tornado or two tomorrow afternoon. Instability looks good. The shear isn’t all that great looking but it’s there. Will be interesting to see what happens.

kukblue1
04-27-2021, 10:34 PM
Agreed. Wouldn’t be surprised if there is a conditional threat for a weak tornado or two tomorrow afternoon. Instability looks good. The shear isn’t all that great looking but it’s there. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Yep. It's might also depends on fronts and boundaries also. Does the Cold front come thru the metro by 4pm? Does it say west of the Metro and OKC stays in the warm sector. Very interesting. It could also stay cloudy all day and not a thing happens.

jn1780
04-28-2021, 10:14 AM
I wonder how active May will be. I see some chatter on the web about the MJO phase will lead to more favorable conditions for more western troughs to form after the second weekend of May.

Pete
04-28-2021, 10:32 AM
What is the best website to determine the amount of rainfall received?

I use Weather Underground but their local gauges are all over the place and never seem to reflect accurate totals.

runOKC
04-28-2021, 10:34 AM
What is the best website to determine the amount of rainfall received?

I use Weather Underground but their local gauges are all over the place and never seem to reflect accurate totals.
May not be as granular as you’re wanting but the Mesonet app has some great maps, including rainfall accumulation over different timeframes.

Roger S
04-28-2021, 10:35 AM
What is the best website to determine the amount of rainfall received?

I use Weather Underground but their local gauges are all over the place and never seem to reflect accurate totals.

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/rainfall

SEMIweather
04-28-2021, 10:37 AM
I second the Mesonet suggestion, also maps.cocorahs.org is another good one.

John1744
04-28-2021, 11:20 AM
Our local news stations I swear. They spend all afternoon and evening tracking rain showers and some strong storms in Texas with two dozen storm trackers and helicopters and then night comes and storms actually start ramping up and nothing.

Ive got family in the Asher area, watching the RadarScope app last night and seeing some circulation building near Paul’s Valley. Flip back on the TV to see if the local news has anything. Only KOCO5 is even covering it.

I call my uncle a bit before midnight I think and he’s completely unaware anything’s even coming. Thankfully everything was fine.

Then this morning we have a tornado warning near McAllister and again nothing on TV about it. But lord help us they tracked tornadoes in Texas all afternoon the other day. I don’t get it sometimes. I guess SE OK is Texarkana news market maybe? But still I mean they carried the tornadoes in Texas live last week.

Jersey Boss
04-28-2021, 11:29 AM
Our local news stations I swear. They spend all afternoon and evening tracking rain showers and some strong storms in Texas with two dozen storm trackers and helicopters and then night comes and storms actually start ramping up and nothing.

Ive got family in the Asher area, watching the RadarScope app last night and seeing some circulation building near Paul’s Valley. Flip back on the TV to see if the local news has anything. Only KOCO5 is even covering it.

I call my uncle a bit before midnight I think and he’s completely unaware anything’s even coming. Thankfully everything was fine.

Then this morning we have a tornado warning near McAllister and again nothing on TV about it. But lord help us they tracked tornadoes in Texas all afternoon the other day. I don’t get it sometimes. I guess SE OK is Texarkana news market maybe? But still I mean they carried the tornadoes in Texas live last week.

May I suggest the purchase of a dedicated NWS radio that comes on when conditions warrant?

Pete
04-28-2021, 11:51 AM
Thanks for the Mesonet suggestion.

Very helpful.

C_M_25
04-28-2021, 12:35 PM
Seems like the models are starting to differentiate a bit. The HRRR is showing almost no rain tonight with the storms being cut off by the frontal boundary moving into the region. The NAM is still showing a big line of storms firing as an MCS. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Could be a pretty epic bust by news 9 of nothing happens tonight.

Anonymous.
04-28-2021, 01:05 PM
Some solid clearing taking place just W of C OK ahead of the dryline. Could see a strong cell or two pop up heading into the later afternoon. Especially across SW into SC OK.

Anonymous.
04-28-2021, 03:46 PM
Line of storms going up now on the W side of I-44 corridor. So far nothing severe in terms of watches or warnings, but some embedded cells are getting stronger.

kukblue1
04-28-2021, 04:43 PM
There wasn't really enough convergence along the front today to get things really going. Around noon we had calm winds in spots. Light N winds in spots light sw winds in spots. Just couldn't really get things going.

Anonymous.
04-28-2021, 08:02 PM
Single severe cell heading toward Chickasha right now.

SEMIweather
04-28-2021, 08:32 PM
Storm looks to have amped up and I wouldn't be surprised to see some sig severe hail reports from the Pocasset/Amber/Bridge Creek areas. We'll see if it can keep it up as it heads into Norman.

Anonymous.
04-28-2021, 08:34 PM
More of a NE jog now. Going right into Newcastle. Moore might be next in line.

SEMIweather
04-28-2021, 08:34 PM
67 mph wind gust reported north of Amber

SEMIweather
04-28-2021, 08:43 PM
If I was in Norman, I would not be leaving my car out in the open for the next hour.

SEMIweather
04-28-2021, 08:51 PM
Baseball sized hail reported in Blanchard.

sayyes
04-28-2021, 09:03 PM
My mom’s living room windows were just knocked out in West Norman.

SEMIweather
04-28-2021, 09:03 PM
North Norman looks to have gotten absolutely hammered with this storm. Seeing tweets about wind-driven golf ball sized hail.

Roger S
04-29-2021, 08:23 AM
We were fortunate last night.... Had just left from dropping off some mallard ducklings whose mother had been hit by a vehicle at Wildcare Oklahoma just before this came through. People were blowing up our phones.

FighttheGoodFight
04-29-2021, 10:46 AM
Hell of a hail storm in Norman. Roof, gutters and windows going to be replaced at my house. It was pretty scary.

Bill Robertson
04-29-2021, 10:49 AM
Hell of a hail storm in Norman. Roof, gutters and windows going to be replaced at my house. It was pretty scary.
Channel 9 was at the car dealerships this morning. What a complete mess!