Spring is here. Highs around 60 pretty much every day for the next couple weeks. Rain chances move in Thursday evening and into early Friday. This will lead to a beautiful weekend with sunshine and LIGHT WINDS!

Severe weather looks possible around Tuesday/Wednesday this coming week.

Yeah. And as we were clearing snow & ice two weeks ago I ordered three pallets of granular and 550 gallons of liquid ice melter because I can't risk being without it and needing it. Now I'm thinking we'll be storing it all for a while.

Gorgeous today.

So incredibly glad to be past the snow and freezing temps. Bring on Spring!

Gorgeous today.

So incredibly glad to be past the snow and freezing temps. Bring on Spring!
AMEN Pete!!

Yes! Psychological Winter began with the ice storm, which was before Halloween (!), so this winter has felt extra long--not to mention the extremes we all went through.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving into the Metro currently. Current Mesonet observations don't exactly leave me thrilled about how much precipitation is actually hitting the ground right now, but we should see less virga and more actual rain as the low pressure system moves across the state later tonight. Areas to the north of I-40 will be favored to see up to half an inch of rain. This system has a large dry slot so there could be a rather sharp cutoff to the south end of the rain shield.

Wraparound showers will come to an end sometime tomorrow afternoon, but overall it will be cloudy and rather cool, especially with a strong NE wind. Once the system moves out, the weekend will be gorgeous with sunny skies, highs in the lower 60's, and light southerly winds. The southerly flow will pick up early next week, drawing in Gulf moisture before the next system moves through in the Wednesday/Thursday time period. Severe weather is possible with this system but still a lot of uncertainty.

The "pivot point" has set up roughly along a Piedmont-Edmond-Choctaw line; areas to the north of this line are getting thunderstorms, while areas to the south will likely stay dry slotted and should receive little to no precipitation from this system. The storm complex is non-severe but is spitting out some very nice lightning.

Mike Morgan already hyping up Spring Break and the second half of March with:

1. Waves of Cold Air
2. Storms Lined up
3. Several Snowstorms Psbl
4. Wet and Plenty Chilly

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20
(https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20)
Really?

Mike Morgan already hyping up Spring Break and the second half of March with:

1. Waves of Cold Air
2. Storms Lined up
3. Several Snowstorms Psbl
4. Wet and Plenty Chilly

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20
(https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20)
Really?

As much of a non fan of his that I am GFS model runs are showing colder systems around the 14th to 18th and the possibility of snow. Not much snow but snow.

Mother nature: "No spring break for you!"

Looks like we have some early spring thunder storms Friday, but than it turns colder. Not artic blast cold like it did a couple of weeks ago.

Did anyone notice what SPC did this morning with 15% risk of Severe Thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday for Oklahoma. Even our NWS has a slight risk map posted for Friday. As far as Morgan goes. Really? I saw that then he still had highs in the 40s. Snowstorm highs in the 40s come on man.

Yes, Friday and Saturday look interesting. Even toss Thursday evening in there with lower probability with iffy development.

High fire danger basically all week ahead of the storm.

Looks like this could be a massive winter storm for Colorado. A healthy drink for OK.

Looks like there may be many damaged evergreens throughout the state following the long deep freeze last month.

^

I lost several shrubs that had been in place for 5-10 years.

^

I lost several shrubs that had been in place for 5-10 years.
I am big into plants and I’ve been asking nurseries about this. I’ve been told to wait until mid April(ish) and some might shed the leaves and produce new foliage.

I am big into plants and I’ve been asking nurseries about this. I’ve been told to wait until mid April(ish) and some might shed the leaves and produce new foliage.
I hope so. At work we have about 200 feet of boxwood bushes that are 4 feet tall and 4 feet wide. I've never seen the leaves anything but green. But now they're dark brown and falling off.

I hope so. At work we have about 200 feet of boxwood bushes that are 4 feet tall and 4 feet wide. I've never seen the leaves anything but green. But now they're dark brown and falling off.
Yeah and the Nandinas. I also recently planted a Brazilian Monkey Puzzle Tree, or also known as a Chilean Pine, which is supposed to be a very hardy tree. But I had it in a pot for 10+ years and it got so big I thought I might as well plant it. It did good all winter through several cold snaps but it is completely brown now and I fear the worst. They are pretty rare in Oklahoma and I’ve been talking to TLC to see if they can keep their eyes open when placing orders for one.

I lost several expensive and old plants in a greenhouse with two heaters which wasn’t enough and I was pissed.

Yeah and the Nandinas. I also recently planted a Brazilian Monkey Puzzle Tree, or also known as a Chilean Pine, which is supposed to be a very hardy tree. But I had it in a pot for 10+ years and it got so big I thought I might as well plant it. It did good all winter through several cold snaps but it is completely brown now and I fear the worst. They are pretty rare in Oklahoma and I’ve been talking to TLC to see if they can keep their eyes open when placing orders for one.

I lost several expensive and old plants in a greenhouse with two heaters which wasn’t enough and I was pissed.

I think both of our taller Nandina died this time, one has a very small amount of green, but the other is pretty much completely brown, we'll see. The 4 little ground-hugging Nandina did fine, though, I think. Holly hedges that have been here forever (way longer than the 4 years we've been in the house, doubt they're as old as the house, but might well be (70 years old) have brown on the outside, but aren't completely brown, so they will hopefully come back. Our only other trees are a Blue Cedar Atlas that has its tips a bit brown, and some junipers that didn't have any damage.

^^^^ I’m going to wait until mid April to see what happens. I’ll be surprised if they come back but presently surprised at that.

Mike Morgan already hyping up Spring Break and the second half of March with:

1. Waves of Cold Air
2. Storms Lined up
3. Several Snowstorms Psbl
4. Wet and Plenty Chilly

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20
(https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20)
Really?


Someone said Aaron Tuttle likes to hype the weather, too. That is very true. No, Stillwater is not going to get 7.1" of rain: https://aarontuttleweather.com/2021/03/07/will-we-see-massive-flooding-next-weekend/?fbclid=IwAR25PfxI-t99taED0cf70zIFg9ztGaoiWIH79o2QhQNMRl-A9o4_pMg1Jm4

I hope the magnolia trees made it. They did from the below zero cold snap in 2011, but that unusual cold snap only lasted a couple of days.

I hope the magnolia trees made it. They did from the below zero cold snap in 2011, but it only lasted a couple of days.

A *huge* magnolia (over 2 stories high) across the street from us made it through the ice storm and it appears to have suffered no damage from the polar vortex.

Hopefully so. Sometimes ice insulates trees from even colder air..... like when they desperately ice down orange trees.

Saturday Risk looks like it's shifting west. Western Oklahoma Texas Panhandle. Also missing a few ingredients to get thing really going but strong Low strong jet it still could be a pretty rowdy day.

I would guess that 80% of my front yard landscape is gone. My three big Deodar don't look like they are going to make it. I will wait till April, fingers crossed. Add landscapers to the list of tree guys and plumbers who are having a really good year.

I hope the magnolia trees made it. They did from the below zero cold snap in 2011, but that unusual cold snap only lasted a couple of days.

I've got three pretty good-sized magnolias in my front yard. Two look to be doing ok, one (unsurprisingly, the one that had the most damage from the ice storm) isn't looking good. Probably 80+% of the leaves have turned brown. Hoping it makes it but we'll see.

I almost never hope we don't get rain but I'm supposed to be having the fence replaced Monday and if it pours this weekend the back yard will be Lake Robertson.

Mike Morgan already hyping up Spring Break and the second half of March with:

1. Waves of Cold Air
2. Storms Lined up
3. Several Snowstorms Psbl
4. Wet and Plenty Chilly

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20
(https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1367956416305238022?s=20)
Really?
I can't believe I actually kinda defended Mike Morgan. Just now he stood in front of a map that showed snow accumulation in the panhandle of 0" and said the panhandle could get heavy snow this weekend. He might need counseling.

We Denver folks are starting to get nervous,,,,,,,,2-3 feet??? Maybe as much as 40" if all things fall into place. Eeeesh!

We Denver folks are starting to get nervous,,,,,,,,2-3 feet??? Maybe as much as 40" if all things fall into place. Eeeesh!

You guys are going to win this year, as far as snow goes. I'll take 3 inches of rain any day of the week.

Thank God they've cut it back to 1-2 feet. Wahhhhh!

Can we keep this focused on OKC weather? Isn’t there a Denver forum more appropriate for you to post on?

Then don't read the posts. You can actually do that, you know.

Rain/Storm chances are still changing for OKC. Looks like C OK will stay dry and cool tonight, then the boundary will lift back to the north on Friday, bringing warmer temperatures up from the south and sparking showers and storms. However, models are favoring development just barely north of OKC for the majority of precipitation. This scenario would focus heaviest rainfall into NW and N OK for Friday evening.

Then Saturday night we should see dryline action and what will likely become a large line of thunderstorms sweep across the state from W to E.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021031112/rgem_apcpn_scus_84.png

Good news. I need some solid outdoor weather for Saturday (cycling)!

Latest short-range models indicate a more favorable development zone for OKC than it did yesterday. This is for tonight after sunset.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021031212/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_17.png

The boundary just came back through C OK and is hovering just N of the metro. Should be the focal point of shower and storm development tonight.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021031219/hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

Ah the beauty/frustration of rapid refresh forecast models.

Latest data pushing the boundary further north than was anticipated even just a few hours ago. OKC may just miss the heavier rain tonight afterall.

Sidenote: First Plains tornado watch of the year was just issues for the southern TX panhandle.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021031221/hrrr_apcpn_scus_15.png

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING 6 AM.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a boundary
through central and northern Oklahoma this evening and overnight.
Locally heavy rainfall is likely with these storms, with flash
flooding possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
with locally higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches are possible through
Saturday morning.

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN GREEN:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Is it me or is the new NWS radar awful? Used to be my go to but no more. Any recommendations on a good clear radar?

Is it me or is the new NWS radar awful? Used to be my go to but no more. Any recommendations on a good clear radar?

Two animated suggestions from my website, until someone can come up with something more impressive. Both are more suitable for desktop, rather than for phone:

Courtesy of weatherunderground.com, no zoom: https://stillwaterweather.com/okcradar

Zoomable: https://stillwaterweather.com/newwxradar

Yes, the new NWS radar is unfortunately terrible. The RadarScope app is incredible if you don't mind paying a one-time $10 fee to download it. It's the only app I've ever purchased and it's been well worth the money IMO.

Thinking that the SPC will likely pull the trigger on a Moderate Risk from the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma tomorrow for significant hail, and potentially for significant tornadoes as well. The discrete supercells that will form out there should eventually coalesce into a squall line well before reaching OKC late tomorrow night. Just expecting a weakening complex of stores moving through here, likely non-severe but maybe giving us some gusty outflow winds. Unfortunately this system is really looking to underachieve on rain relative to what was forecast earlier this week.

Skies will gradually clear out on Sunday, then next week is shaping up to be beautiful, with low chances for rain and highs in the 60's.

Yes, the new NWS radar is unfortunately terrible. The RadarScope app is incredible if you don't mind paying a one-time $10 fee to download it. It's the only app I've ever purchased and it's been well worth the money IMO.

Not a one time fee. It is an annual $9.99 fee, but well worth it!

Interesting how the heavy rain has concentrated, so far, away from Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Lawton and Stillwater as of 9 am Saturday.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

Interesting how the heavy rain has concentrated, so far, away from Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Lawton and Stillwater as of 9 am Saturday.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

So far i would say this storm system has been a big bust for the I-44 corridor. All i heard throughout the week was waves of showers and storms and heavy rain and even last night we were in a flash flood watch and that never materialized either. But we all know that the weather, especially in Oklahoma is not easy to predict with so many variables in play. On the flip side we are just now entering our severe / rainy period so there will be many opportunities for rain and of course more chances of busts as well.

Seems like every high res model run is decreasing the chances we see rain more and more. There is some humidity in the air but it’s pretty chilly here right now. My guess is we don’t see anything other than a few sprinkles out of this.

Our Local TV stations so badly need to tone it down. I moved here in 2012 and it was bad however now it seems even worse. Am I wrong on this or have people around here always thought it was bad. Just like today. A certain station was a 6 out of 10 on the tornado risk. Yes the SPC was a moderate risk (not for Oklahoma) but we ended up not even having a watch in the state. One brief Tornado Warning. Why can't we start low and then go up from there? In my opinion there should never be a 5 or 50% chance or higher unless there is at least a Tornado Watch issued. Giving people a heads up is fine but they go way too overboard with it then with nothing happens people will just stop listening.

The over drama does seem worse. Maybe TV weather people are afraid of getting a lot worse heck for under estimating how bad the weather turned out.

I honestly don't even watch the news regarding severe weather unless there is a live event. Anonymous et al are my primary source for severe forecasts. I also follow NWS on Twitter.

Has anyone notice the Slight risk already by the SPC for Tuesday. There been no hype either cause I think it has caught them by surprise as there was no mention of it yesterday even by spc. It's events that don't get hyped are the ones I worry about.

Has anyone notice the Slight risk already by the SPC for Tuesday. There been no hype either cause I think it has caught them by surprise as there was no mention of it yesterday even by spc. It's events that don't get hyped are the ones I worry about.GFS and NAM models show the system as just being rain. Nothing close to severe. I don't think anyone is missing anything.

GFS and NAM models show the system as just being rain. Nothing close to severe. I don't think anyone is missing anything.

SPC doesn't throw out a slight risk 3 days ahead just cause. There has to be something there or possibly there. Might just be hail and wind but that was more than got from this last event that they hyped for 5 days. Major Tornado outbreak also possible for Mississippi and Alabama from the same system

SPC doesn't throw out a slight risk 3 days ahead just cause. There has to be something there or possibly there. Might just be hail and wind but that was more than got from this last event that they hyped for 5 days. Major Tornado outbreak also possible for Mississippi and Alabama from the same systemDid you read the entire advisory. It doesn't discuss much risk. Nothing like three days before the last system.

Did you read the entire advisory. It doesn't discuss much risk. Nothing like three days before the last system.

True but they also got it very wrong. at least for Central Oklahoma It was supposed to be a central Oklahoma event 3 days out. I even mentioned on here that it was pushing further and further west. There was no reason for all the hype the night before.. It was pretty obvious it was going to be a Texas Panhandle event. Not saying there is a reason to hype this event either but it seem to be an after thought cause there is no mention of a possible tornado outbreak. We get some moisture return and this could be a pretty decent event. Better than last event.

True but they also got it very wrong. at least for Central Oklahoma It was supposed to be a central Oklahoma event 3 days out. I even mentioned on here that it was pushing further and further west. There was no reason for all the hype the night before.. It was pretty obvious it was going to be a Texas Panhandle event. Not saying there is a reason to hype this event either but it seem to be an after thought cause there is no mention of a possible tornado outbreak. We get some moisture return and this could be a pretty decent event. Better than last event.
Not from the current models. We'll see.

Just looked at a few things Quickly. Looks like we will get a line of storms after dark. Some models show them blowing up i-35 east some have them West of metro we shall see just keep an eye out for Tuesday. https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=2021031418|NAMNST|SGP|prec|ptype|60 |35.58,-99.22|ml|severe

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDOUN&e=202103142347 If we can get some moisture return on Tuesday that is the big question right now . Our Dewpoint right now on Sunday evening is 25 very low.

Like others have mentioned. Tuesday evening looks like another chance for storms. Looks like a probably broken line of storms will try to develop out west and push east across the state. Highest chances once again being across NW and N OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021031512/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_43.png

Yes SPC now just has slight risk for Northwest Oklahoma the timing for central Oklahoma is all wrong. major tornado outbreak possible if you know anybody that lives in Mississippi Alabama Arkansas on Wednesday