Like others have mentioned. Tuesday evening looks like another chance for storms. Looks like a probably broken line of storms will try to develop out west and push east across the state. Highest chances once again being across NW and N OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021031512/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_43.png

It looks like there is plenty of instability from the modeled skew-t's. What gives? Is the storm system moving in too late in the day?

It looks like there is plenty of instability from the modeled skew-t's. What gives? Is the storm system moving in too late in the day?

Yes that map is for 2am in the morning. Moves into OKC 3-4am in the morning so not the best timing

Yes that map is for 2am in the morning. Moves into OKC 3-4am in the morning so not the best timing

Here's the 4AM shot of the same model run. It has the system pretty much breaking up between 2 and 4AM.
16766

Yes it's coming thru at a not so good time for storms. However when the first go up in the state we need to watch out. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDOUN&e=202103152050 Moisture return is there.

HRRR 18Z run showed a good line of storms in Western Oklahoma at 1am

Well a local Tv Meteorologist is saying storms form in Western Oklahoma from 7-8 and storms in OKC midnight. Not sure where they are getting that from as every model is showing storms forming around midnight but whatever draws attention to their channel I guess.

https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=2021031518|NAMNST|SGP|prec|radar|35 |35.37,-99.55|ml|severe Not sure if this link will work but we are now pulling up PDS Tornado soundings for far western Oklahoma 1am. Not saying there is going to be a Tornado but the atmosphere is much more favorable then the event on Saturday at least for Oklahoma

Where is the HYPE. Just watch David Payne at 10 and he pretty much blew it off. KOCO is a 2 on the tornado scale but wasn't putting the fear of god into people like with Saturday event. Good old Aaron Tuttle for the win. https://aarontuttleweather.com/2021/03/15/nighttime-tornadoes-expected/?fbclid=IwAR3uAlCoSNHzd0TQKMLXDRGcGBo8EqhXhBKul5lG I-ctcU6O26HriEcYfcw I don't know is he any good? I never really followed him. Tornado soundings are all over western Oklahoma from midnight until about 2 am.

I see you SPC with your 5% tornado risk I see you. I'm not trying to throw any local TV meteorologist under the bus I'm just trying to figure out how Saturday event got so hyped up that we had every Storm tracker out there everyone and were high on their tornado scale. All three Chief meteorologists were working and the risk really wasn't there. Now we fast forward 3 days and there is something possibly there for tomorrow morning and yet it doesn't really seem to be getting any attention at least as of Monday night weather forecast on the local news.

Honestly SPC should place a small area of NW and N OK under Moderate risk. There will likely be 2-4 supercells in that region.

Meanwhile for the rest of the state, this will be a classic HILP event. High Impact, Low Probability. Storm development is less likely heading into WC and C OK. Some chances go up further across extreme S and SE OK.

Large hail will be the main threat with any discrete cells that do develop, tornado chances are non-zero with these storms as they are obviously rotating. But like mentioned above, NW and N OK should be ready.

Agree metro might not even see much rain. However if HRRR keeps holding on to them storms forming around 10:00 p.m. in Northwest Oklahoma like it has for about three or four computer runs I would not be surprised if there's a moderate risk. I think the reason might be is because everything is going to be so isolated and there's only going to be one or two storms

SPC upgraded the area we discussed this morning to Enhanced Risk. Totally forgot about that category existing between Slight and Moderate.

Not much as changed, dangerous supercells NW and N OK. Small chance of development south into C OK, but if anything does develop, it will likely be severe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021031620/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

Two MDs out. 80% probability of a watch issued for NW OK. 40% for points south.

A single severe storm down in S TX PH. Towers going up across the rest of the panhandle. We will see what makes it over the couple hours.

Two MDs out. 80% probability of a watch issued for NW OK. 40% for points south.

A single severe storm down in S TX PH. Towers going up across the rest of the panhandle. We will see what makes it over the couple hours.

Is moisture the limiting factor right now?

Hobart storm and storm going into Woodward are serious business right now. Big hail.

Lower level moisture has pulled back from NW OK. Thus, tornado threat low. Still nice and juicy south of there.

Local spotters reporting brief spinups with Hobart cell. Currently new storm forming north of it.

Two tornadoes warnings so far 1:00 a.m. we have seven severe thunderstorm warnings yeah there was no need to hype this event I watched David at 4:00 and he spent 95% of the time talking about the blizzard for Woodward instead of the storm risk for the overnight hours SMH

Where is the HYPE. Just watch David Payne at 10 and he pretty much blew it off. KOCO is a 2 on the tornado scale but wasn't putting the fear of god into people like with Saturday event. Good old Aaron Tuttle for the win. https://aarontuttleweather.com/2021/03/15/nighttime-tornadoes-expected/?fbclid=IwAR3uAlCoSNHzd0TQKMLXDRGcGBo8EqhXhBKul5lG I-ctcU6O26HriEcYfcw I don't know is he any good? I never really followed him. Tornado soundings are all over western Oklahoma from midnight until about 2 am.

Nah, I lost respect for him after he put up a map that showed Stillwater was going to get 7.1" of rain, more than anybody else. Instead, Stillwater hardly got a third of an inch. He's no better than the TV weather hypers.

As of 3:45 am, it looks like Stillwater is going to get some rain. Special weather statement issued for it with no severe alerts. OKC doesn't look like it's going to get as much. Rain is more widespread in Kansas.

OKC is pretty much at the high of the day right now around 8am. We will see strong N winds come rushing in heading into this afternoon. Bringing along mist and some rain showers from the wrap-around. Temperatures will drop into the low 40s and upper 30s overnight. The wind will make it miserable.

Rebound begins tomorrow into the weekend. Next rain chances look to be Tuesday.

Holy heck, we went from 80 degrees yesterday to just now the wind shifting and picking up as we drop well down into the '40s.

Went from early summer back to winter in a flash.

^
I could have waited to uncover and clean up the Miata!

Classic brief March cold snap with this system. Skies will clear out tomorrow but it will still be chilly with strong NW winds. Friday into the weekend should feel nicer as temperatures rebound but it will still be windy. Next storm system will move through sometime early next week. Models aren't showing much instability and this will likely be a more widespread stratiform rain event with a low threat of strong storms. Hoping that OKC can get some good moisture from this one as we've been running fairly dry over the past couple of months and we still have a month or so until the greenup really starts in earnest and our fire threat begins to decrease.

HOLD UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Saturday Evening what is the HRRR trying to show for just west of the Metro on Monday evening? WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Nam Nest also.
Can't buy into this one just yet as it's also showing a lot of rain Monday Morning so are we going to be able to recover enough? Anyone what to chime in on this? I know SPC was just Marginal for their 3 day risk this morning.

Well the tornado threat is not zero for far Southwest Oklahoma down by the Red River. Most computer models are trending towards a Squall line forming and pushing from OKC South. still not too concerned about it but something to keep an eye on

Storms out west will develop into an MCS tonight. Severe potential along leading edge. Hail and wind primary threats, maybe a few spinups along the way. Looks like a solid rain for most of the state. Highest severe chances are south of I-40.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021032212/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Storms are barely severe entering SW OK now. The rain-cooled air across much of the state will lower severity of the MCS. Expect another 1" of rain to sweep across this evening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021032219/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

It’s going to be interesting to see how/if this affects forecasts

https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/upgrade-to-u-s-weather-forecasting-model-means-better-predictions-further-out-experts-say/article_ab02f3c8-8a64-11eb-ba63-3fccb77c394b.html

I'm continually amazed by the improvements that have been made in short-range modeling over the last decade. The HRRR is a great tool to look at on the day of potential severe weather events.

It’s going to be interesting to see how/if this affects forecasts

https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/upgrade-to-u-s-weather-forecasting-model-means-better-predictions-further-out-experts-say/article_ab02f3c8-8a64-11eb-ba63-3fccb77c394b.html
I'll buy new technology improving short range forecasting. The problem with long range accuracy is systems out two weeks can follow any one of many possible tracks and I'm not buying that technology can track that until I see it.

I'm continually amazed by the improvements that have been made in short-range modeling over the last decade. The HRRR is a great tool to look at on the day of potential severe weather events.
Yes! HRRR has become the model to watch when it comes into the time range.

I'll buy new technology improving short range forecasting. The problem with long range accuracy is systems out two weeks can follow any one of many possible tracks and I'm not buying that technology can track that until I see it.

Chaos theory will always make long-term accuracy not completely feasible.

Two animated suggestions from my website, until someone can come up with something more impressive. Both are more suitable for desktop, rather than for phone:

Courtesy of weatherunderground.com, no zoom: https://stillwaterweather.com/okcradar

Zoomable: https://stillwaterweather.com/newwxradar

This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks for sharing.

Cold morning for Wednesday and slight rain chances in the evening as a weak system moves by. Best shot is east of I-35. This system will usher in cooler air from the north. Rebound coming Friday into Saturday with what looks like an amazing weekend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021032318/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_32.png

I am stoked for this weekend. Looks like 70, sunny, and a 90% chance of me drinking a beer on the Angry Scotsman patio after work on Friday.

High fire danger basically statewide today and tomorrow with strong S winds ahead of a front that will cool us off some Tuesday night. Fantastic weather all week. No real rain chances showing up in the next 10.

Anybody else feel that it’s been a little too warm and a little too dry so far this spring? I’m loving the warm weather, but we need some moisture.

This weather pattern is very reminiscent of 2011. Hopefully we see a shift before summertime as I would prefer not to repeat the 2+ months of 100+ degree heat that OKC got that summer, lol.

This weather pattern is very reminiscent of 2011. Hopefully we see a shift before summertime as I would prefer not to repeat the 2+ months of 100+ degree heat that OKC got that summer, lol.

This is particularly concerning because the next time the long range modes even hint at rain is April 17th. I’m going to have to fire up my sprinklers in April for the first time in a long time.

Yep. Not much to be done about it except wait for a pattern shift, unfortunately. Seems like we are always either entering or exiting a drought in the Southern Plains, and right now definitely feels like we are in the "entering" phase. Very difficult to ever get consistent precipitation in this part of the country.

GFS is showing a storm system coming through the S Plains around 4/12-13 and a larger one (and likely pattern shift to more active weather) around 4/19