Nice taste of spring next few days, mild and windy. Weekend will be a cool down back into the 40s. Next decent shot at precipitation looks like somewhere in the middle of next week.

Starting to hear rumblings of arctic air coming south in the next few days, uh. Please tell me it isn't so!

Yes. Still a long way out, but next week looks like the coldest week of the season so far. Here is a snapshot of Wednesday morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020312/gfs_T2m_scus_29.png

Thanks groundhog....

Yep, GFS and ECMWF have both consistently shown a fairly prolonged arctic blast (for this part of the country, at least) next week.

Yeah this gonna be a heck of a cold blast. Enjoy the next couple days while you can.

Yeah this gonna be a heck of a cold blast. Enjoy the next couple days while you can.

Yep, feeling lucky at least that the initial cold snap that was supposed to happen this weekend isn't going to end up coming to fruition, could actually see us topping out around 60 on Sunday which would be a solid 20-30 degrees above what was initially forecasted. Don't think there's any way around 4-7 days in a row with lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the 20's and 30's once the arctic front moves through on Monday morning, though. Models are showing some of the most impressive signals for an arctic blast that I can remember in recent years. Will be interesting to see what (if anything) we can manage in terms of snow, not seeing much that would suggest a major system, but a couple of smaller systems seem possible.

Thought this was interesting... (Insert warnings about looking too hard at one model run)

"GFS ensembles showing an impressive #snow signal in the Deep South right down to the Gulf of Mexico but especially for Oklahoma, the Carolinas & Virginia for next week. A #snowstorm in the Northeastern US is a nor'easter but in the Southeastern US is it a sou'easter?"

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1357331336479051776?s=20

Thought this was interesting... (Insert warnings about looking too hard at one model run)

"GFS ensembles showing an impressive #snow signal in the Deep South right down to the Gulf of Mexico but especially for Oklahoma, the Carolinas & Virginia for next week. A #snowstorm in the Northeastern US is a nor'easter but in the Southeastern US is it a sou'easter?"

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1357331336479051776?s=20
The last two GFS runs show metro area snow total through Feb 20 at 2 to 3 inches.

No thank you.

Roads are essentially impassable this morning due to ice. Pileups on just about every bridge. Don’t go out unless you absolutely have to.

Temperatures may not get above freezing all week. Tuesday will be our best chance in OKC to get above 32F. North winds will continue to pour in arctic air.

A messy weekend also looks like it is coming with snow chances and temperatures that will be the coldest in decades.

Some models are forecasting all-time record cold temperatures this weekend. If there is any type of snowpack and clear skies, I think it will be possible to see a run at the OKC record (-17F) which happened on February 12, 1899.

Temperatures may not get above freezing all week. Tuesday will be our best chance in OKC to get above 32F. North winds will continue to pour in arctic air.

A messy weekend also looks like it is coming with snow chances and temperatures that will be the coldest in decades.

Some models are forecasting all-time record cold temperatures this weekend. If there is any type of snowpack and clear skies, I think it will be possible to see a run at the OKC record (-17F) which happened on February 12, 1899.

how delightful

Temperatures may not get above freezing all week. Tuesday will be our best chance in OKC to get above 32F. North winds will continue to pour in arctic air.

A messy weekend also looks like it is coming with snow chances and temperatures that will be the coldest in decades.

Some models are forecasting all-time record cold temperatures this weekend. If there is any type of snowpack and clear skies, I think it will be possible to see a run at the OKC record (-17F) which happened on February 12, 1899.
Awesome - I love the cold.

This storm definitely ****s.

The all-time record low maximum temperature in OKC is 2 degrees, and it at least seems conceivable that we could challenge that on Sunday. The all-time record for consecutive days below freezing is 13, I suspect we'll fall a bit short of that one as the current pattern looks to relax around the 19th or so.

This seems like it was a weird cold snap. My kids wanted to do a freezing experiment yesterday (Sunday) and when I checked it was supposed to be a low or 34 with a high in the low 40s for Monday. Then we woke up to this.

You all are getting it a lot worse than we are in Denver, plus wind. Sorry.

Shallow cold air masses often travel faster and further south than what's modeled, which is what happened with this event. I'm not knowledgeable enough to explain why it occurs (in fact, if you scroll further up in this thread, you can see me getting fooled by the models into thinking we'd be in the 50's or 60's yesterday lol), but it's definitely a trend that I've picked up on over my years of following OKC weather, and you'll also see NWS Norman mention it from time to time in their forecast discussions. Some other recent examples of this happening are February 19th-20th, 2018 and February 4th-6th, 2019.

Then, when they dive into the Gulf, they seem to spin up a bad SE/Noreaster.

Okay so obviously 32F isn't happening today.

Okay so obviously 32F isn't happening today.

lol

Okay so obviously 32F isn't happening today.

Repeat this for the next two weeks :(

HRRR showing light freezing rain and drizzle developing along and south of I-44 for Wednesday. Anything hitting the ground can assumed to be freezing on contact.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021020918/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_21.png

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TS05.grad.png

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Areas Affected:
Atoka - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Garvin - Grady - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Wa****a
Effective: Wed, 2/10 12:00am Updated: Tue, 2/9 5:22pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Wed, 2/10 6:00pm Severity: Minor Certainty: Likely

Details:
...ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
.Widespread freezing drizzle, along with areas of freezing rain
and sleet, will be possible tonight and Wednesday. The heaviest
precipitation is expected across southeast and south-central
Oklahoma, where one-tenth or more of ice accumulation is possible.
Farther north and west, including western north Texas up into
southwest and central Oklahoma, lighter amounts are expected but
travel impacts are still expected.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing drizzle and freezing rain. Total ice
accumulation of around one tenth of an inch are possible across
southeast and south-central Oklahoma. Lighter amounts of ice
expected elsewhere.
* WHERE...Portions of central, western, and southern Oklahoma and
northern Texas.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are likely. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute. Slick sidewalks and
parking lots are also expected.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice accumulations across southeast and
south-central Oklahoma could impact trees and power lines.

Information:
Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.
In Oklahoma, call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7 for road information. In
Texas, call 8 0 0 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

Counties Covered In Blue:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

I like how W a s h i t a County gets the astrixs all the time, lol.

Yep. Family from wa****a county. Lol. Anyway, looking like record cold.

If there are homeless people not in a shelter, I don't know how they will survive this next week.

I was outside just briefly today and was completely overwhelmed by the cold. And it's going to get worse.

NWS suggests 60% chance of snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning, but isn’t saying how much yet. I have a relative planning to come into town this weekend but leaving Monday. Will it be enough to cause trouble getting out?

Here are some GFS totals. This is including a weak storm coming through Saturday night, and then the heavier stuff Monday morning.

This is very far out, so this will change a lot. Also showing another round coming in around Wednesday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021012/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png

Here are some GFS totals. This is including a weak storm coming through Saturday night, and then the heavier stuff Monday morning.

This is very far out, so this will change a lot. Also showing another round coming in around Wednesday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021012/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png

with as cold as it is (and will be) is there a chance we get something much close to 20-1 ratio ??

Thought this was interesting... (Insert warnings about looking too hard at one model run)

"GFS ensembles showing an impressive #snow signal in the Deep South right down to the Gulf of Mexico but especially for Oklahoma, the Carolinas & Virginia for next week. A #snowstorm in the Northeastern US is a nor'easter but in the Southeastern US is it a sou'easter?"

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1357331336479051776?s=20

The cold front is finally making good progress into Texas and Arkansas, but much of the rest of the south stays warm, since the front has been amazingly close to stationery this week. No wonder. The jet stream is blowing east rather than south or southeast over the upper south.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/metar/maps/realtime/latest.tair.png

with as cold as it is (and will be) is there a chance we get something much close to 20-1 ratio ??

Yes, that is possible. We could have the storm flair out across TX as it tracks east and it will create a large snow plume over OK. This would occur in temperatures near 0F, which would basically be a northern plains type of snow and essentially a high accumulation blizzard.

This would also likely result in my conditional situation I mentioned earlier this week. In which a solid snowpack and clear skies would result in OKC getting to a new all-time record low temperature.

Have you guys seen the maps from Damon lane. He’s showing okc could get 15+ inches of snow by Monday evening. Is he being a drama queen again? None of the models I have seen are showing that much snow.

I think the nature of the snow - being light and dry - makes it more prone to higher accumulations, but yeah 15 inches is extreme. Most model runs I'm seeing show around 8-10 inches over the two waves, which itself would be pretty paralyzing for a bit.

Today would be the perfect day to go on a week's vacation to Florida.

Here is a snapshot of GFS sometime Sunday night. This is likely the model that local met is using with his 15" snow map. This is heavy snow, 10-15mph winds, and temperatures 5 below zero.

Note that this would be a historic storm for the southern plains. Generational.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_19.png

Today would be the perfect day to go on a week's vacation to Florida.

Two weeks to be on the safe side

Have you guys seen the maps from Damon lane. He’s showing okc could get 15+ inches of snow by Monday evening. Is he being a drama queen again? None of the models I have seen are showing that much snow.

Mike Morgan said 14 in. plus a low as low as -15. The other weathermen are not calling it near that low, but still below zero.

Mike Morgan is freaking out. I expect there to be no milk and bread to be found in the OKC metro by Friday. Get your shopping done now...lol

10 years ago it was one of the coldest nights of the 21st century in much of central and northern Oklahoma. It got down to 5 below in Oklahoma City. In Nowata an all time low record for the state was set with -31. But that bitter cold spell was short lived with below freezing temps lasting for only 2 or 3 days. How the weather service summarizes that time:

"A deep snow pack, combined with clear skies and light surface winds produced very cold temperatures. Keeping with the theme of extremes during winter of 2010-2011, the low temperatures on the 10th were nothing short of frigid, and numerous sites set record low temperatures, including the all-time record low temperature for Oklahoma! By 10 pm on the 9th, some locations over northern Oklahoma were below -10 degrees. And by 7:30 am on the 10th, a wide area of -10 to -15 degrees was reported over the northern third of Oklahoma. A few of those sites were even below -20 degrees. Nowata broke the all-time low record for Oklahoma, falling to -31 degrees. The 2nd lowest were Pryor and Bartlesville ASOS site, also in northeastern Oklahoma, which both fell to -28 degrees. Oklahoma City also fell below zero, reaching -5 degrees around 7:00 am. This broke the previous record of 4 degrees reached in 1929. Wichita Falls, TX reached their record low temperature, although they remained slightly above zero. The temperature of 3 degrees broke the previous record of 5 degrees set in 1980."
FROM: https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20110208#:~:text=Keeping%20with%20the%20theme%20of ,record%20low%20temperature%20for%20Oklahoma!&text=Oklahoma%20City%20also%20fell%20below,degrees %20around%207%3A00%20am.

Geeze! I feel like it's downright balmy here in Denver!

I think the nature of the snow - being light and dry - makes it more prone to higher accumulations, but yeah 15 inches is extreme. Most model runs I'm seeing show around 8-10 inches over the two waves, which itself would be pretty paralyzing for a bit.

You have to at least double totals on the models because of how cold it's going to be.

You have to at least double totals on the models because of how cold it's going to be.

I think the models are already factoring that in?

I think the models are already factoring that in?

the posted GFS is post #30 uses a 1-10 liquid ratio

with it this cold it will be closer to 1-15 or 1-20

Geeze! I feel like it's downright balmy here in Denver!

According to my weather app, it's supposed to be - 6 degrees in Denver Sunday. Let us know how balmy that feels.

Winter Storm Watch is out for all of Norman office viewing area.

Beginning Saturday night thru Monday afternoon.

When will this stuff melt, end of next week?

Mike Morgan is freaking out. I expect there to be no milk and bread to be found in the OKC metro by Friday. Get your shopping done now...lol

Morgan is hyping it up even more. For now, the lowest low will not be -15. Instead, it will be an all time record tying -17. But the National Weather Service says it will -6.

https://stillwaterweather.com/images/17below.jpg

16718

First time I’ve ever seen the Mesonet declare a statewide Level 1 on the Defconmeter.

Mike Morgan said 14 in. plus a low as low as -15.

Mike Morgan also told half a million people to go get into their cars during a tornado outbreak.

We still on that?

Mike Morgan also told half a million people to go get into their cars during a tornado outbreak.

But it was over a rare EF-5 tornado. Those can blow away the whole house, leaving only the foundation. Where would you rather be then? Remaining at that house or hopefully on the road, headed south, getting away from the tornado, while hopefully not stuck stationery in a traffic jam? From those two infamous Moore tornadoes, I wonder how many of the dozens of deaths happened from the result of staying at home? Never mind the hundreds of injuries.

I think the main good those two infamous Moore tornadoes did was to encourage more people to make sure to have an at home tornado shelter available, so they won't have to decide if they really need to leave home in the event of a worse than usual tornado warning issued from a TV weather person. Because of the 1999 Moore tornado, I knew I had to have a safe room built in my new home in 2004. I'm grateful I have never yet had to go in there and lock the door over panic a tornado was about to come. Still quite glad it's there just in case.

Forecast Discussion. NWS takes a middle of the road approach toward upcoming snow depths.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OUN&issuedby=OUN&product=AFD&ampm;format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Amazing how in 2017 on this date, Feb. 11, highs were in the 80s in Oklahoma.

Forecast Discussion. NWS takes a middle of the road approach toward upcoming snow depths.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OUN&issuedby=OUN&product=AFD&m;format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

One of the more important paragraphs of that for Sunday Monday

"That means there is an 24% chance Oklahoma City may exceed 8" of
snowfall (according to the NBM guidance). However, NBM seems a
little low on the snow to liquid ratios (~10:1 to 15:1 during the
event), so these probabilities might be a little underdone. The
NBM QPF is 0.49" and 0.51" for OKC and Wichita Falls,
respectively. Therefore, our official snowfall forecast is shifted
slightly higher than what those probabilities would suggest with
~6-10" (higher west and north where snow ratios are higher) with
the potential for locally higher amounts. Nevertheless, a slight
change in QPF will change these values. Therefore, I urge people
to be cautious on snowfall totals given the highly sensitive
forecast.

Amazing how in 2017 on this date, Feb. 11, highs were in the 80s in Oklahoma.

OMG i would so take this right now. I really really hate the bitter cold of winter. Luckily we don't get too much of that here in Oklahoma, but when we do, we really do.

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

NWS Norman's video update:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HIY5CRYwFQ&ab_channel=NWSNorman

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

Is that with a 10:1 ratio though. If so then you almost have to double it with a high of only 7. It's going to be fluffy and add up quickly. However it's going to have a lot of air in it also so as it keeps falling on its self it's going to collapse down. So even though 10 inches might fall by the time you measure it at the end of the event there might only be 7 on the ground. It's going to be next to impossible to measure anyway with the wind and how dry it's going to be.