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PoliSciGuy
02-15-2021, 12:51 PM
Rolling blackouts are beginning, and may last through the next few days

https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1361386051609198592

C_M_25
02-15-2021, 12:54 PM
Rolling blackouts are beginning, and may last through the next few days

https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1361386051609198592

This is unbe-freaking-leavable....

SouthOfTheVillage
02-15-2021, 01:02 PM
Rolling blackouts are beginning, and may last through the next few days

https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1361386051609198592

Thanks, Obama!

FighttheGoodFight
02-15-2021, 01:17 PM
Stay warm folks. Hopefully the blackouts are an hour at a time.

SEMIweather
02-15-2021, 01:47 PM
Hopefully the power situation here doesn't become as dire as it is in Austin right now.

SEMIweather
02-15-2021, 01:49 PM
18z HRRR run shows a low of -16 tonight which would be one degree shy of tying the all-time record.

FighttheGoodFight
02-15-2021, 02:01 PM
ONG just said they might have to shut off gas. This is now dangerous.

TheTravellers
02-15-2021, 02:02 PM
ONG just said they might have to shut off gas. This is now dangerous.

No gas, no electricity, wonder how many will die?

PoliSciGuy
02-15-2021, 02:21 PM
Jeeeez, we've gone from 6bn cuft/day to 4bn cuft/day in natural gas production. That's not great.

On the plus side, the SPP temporarily lifted the need for rolling blackouts, so hopefully they stay on top of this.

FighttheGoodFight
02-15-2021, 02:23 PM
Withdrawn Level 3 from SPP. More blackouts avoided for now

TheTravellers
02-15-2021, 02:26 PM
Hope all these entities (ONG, suppliers, OG&E, etc.) learn from this and plan for the future because this kind of weather *will* happen again in the future, and it won't be a once-in-100-year event, I'd bet we see this again sometime in the next decade.

jn1780
02-15-2021, 02:28 PM
Jeeeez, we've gone from 6bn cuft/day to 4bn cuft/day in natural gas production. That's not great.

On the plus side, the SPP temporarily lifted the need for rolling blackouts, so hopefully they stay on top of this.

Maybe the wind turbines are starting to come back online with the afternoon sun today? Now we have this natural gas shortage to deal with.

jn1780
02-15-2021, 02:30 PM
Hope all these entities (ONG, suppliers, OG&E, etc.) learn from this and plan for the future because this kind of weather *will* happen again in the future, and it won't be a once-in-100-year event, I'd bet we see this again sometime in the next decade.

Heaters on the equipment would have avoided a lot of this. We're short 2 cuft/day of natural gas because of frozen infrastructure.

djohn
02-15-2021, 02:31 PM
Hope all these entities (ONG, suppliers, OG&E, etc.) learn from this and plan for the future because this kind of weather *will* happen again in the future, and it won't be a once-in-100-year event, I'd bet we see this again sometime in the next decade.

OG&E tried to buy a coal power plant years ago (10 or 15), but they were shot down because it wasn't clean enough. Only allowed them to buy/build nat gas plants.

What we need is more snow covered solar panels and frozen windmills.

Ohwiseone
02-15-2021, 02:34 PM
Withdrawn Level 3 from SPP. More blackouts avoided for now


I am talking with a few other people and they are really confused as to why the SPP declared an emergency, started to set plans for "service interruptions" and then the O.C.C calls a meeting to potentially increase Natural Gas out of the state, and then they withdraw the declaration.

The lack of communication is insane.

PoliSciGuy
02-15-2021, 02:35 PM
Hope all these entities (ONG, suppliers, OG&E, etc.) learn from this and plan for the future because this kind of weather *will* happen again in the future, and it won't be a once-in-100-year event, I'd bet we see this again sometime in the next decade.

Absolutely. Climate change makes these sort of polar plunges all the more likely due to changes in the jetstream: https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/why-polar-vortex-keeps-breaking-out-arctic

Also, wind power in TX is actually producing more power than ERCOT anticipated (from https://twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status/1361052142199570435) :


CONTEXT ON WIND:

"Wind is putting out more than we count on for the winter season," said Dan Woodfin, from @ERCOT_ISO, the power grid operator in Texas.

Uncertain if iced turbines would be "deiced."

Other turbines producing more than they normally do, he added.

gopokes88
02-15-2021, 02:39 PM
Absolutely. Climate change makes these sort of polar plunges all the more likely due to changes in the jetstream: https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/why-polar-vortex-keeps-breaking-out-arctic

lol i'm sure they have a firm grasp on global climate and what that means for the next 100 years

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1352228449553772553?s=20

PoliSciGuy
02-15-2021, 02:41 PM
lol i'm sure they have a firm grasp on global climate and what that means for the next 100 years

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1352228449553772553?s=20

Weather isn't the same as climate, but nice try!

TheTravellers
02-15-2021, 02:42 PM
OG&E tried to buy a coal power plant years ago (10 or 15), but they were shot down because it wasn't clean enough. Only allowed them to buy/build nat gas plants.

What we need is more snow covered solar panels and frozen windmills.

There should be remediation plans for that (heaters - thanks, jn1780), or manual ways to sweep the snow off the panels. These companies have failed if they didn't ever plan for something like this, especially with climate change making everything extreme.

ONG said on the OKC news conference that just ended (youtube has it) it could be days or weeks to restore gas if they lose their supply. They have to turn off every place that has gas, get their supply back, do leak detection and turn the gas back on at every place.

PoliSciGuy
02-15-2021, 02:45 PM
SPP update in 15 minutes, per Dillon Richards

jn1780
02-15-2021, 02:49 PM
I still think solar minimum combined with the unpredictable nature of climate change is a contributing factor. Climate change has been happening over 20+ years now, but yet we are seeing some of the coldest temps in decades. Scientist remain skeptical to this idea, but there is still a lot we don't know about how solar cycles affects the weather. There is definitely correlation happening with the solar minimum, whether its causation remains unknown. If solar min is causing colder winters, expect a cold decade.

TheTravellers
02-15-2021, 03:01 PM
Good Twitter thread, but absolutely pathetic information.

https://twitter.com/KassieMcClung/status/1361397951806005250

"Brandy Wreath (director of the public utility division for OCC) said they didn't even have models to look at this situation because it's unprecedented."

So the programmers that did the modeling just stopped and said "This'll never happen, we can go home now"? FAIL!

OKCRT
02-15-2021, 03:10 PM
There should be remediation plans for that (heaters - thanks, jn1780), or manual ways to sweep the snow off the panels. These companies have failed if they didn't ever plan for something like this, especially with climate change making everything extreme.

ONG said on the OKC news conference that just ended (youtube has it) it could be days or weeks to restore gas if they lose their supply. They have to turn off every place that has gas, get their supply back, do leak detection and turn the gas back on at every place.

Back in the early 80s they lost a bunch (like thousands) of customers in Fort Smith due to high water content in the cng when temps went down to around 0. Had to clean the Natural Gas dehydrators,seprators at well locations to remove the water from the gas then go to every home and relight pilots. Big deal when they lose gas as no quick fix.

BoulderSooner
02-15-2021, 03:51 PM
I still think solar minimum combined with the unpredictable nature of climate change is a contributing factor. Climate change has been happening over1000's of years now, but yet we are seeing some of the coldest temps in decades. Scientist remain skeptical to this idea, but there is still a lot we don't know about how solar cycles affects the weather. There is definitely correlation happening with the solar minimum, whether its causation remains unknown. If solar min is causing colder winters, expect a cold decade.

fixed it for you

securityinfo
02-15-2021, 04:00 PM
So the programmers that did the modeling just stopped and said "This'll never happen, we can go home now"? FAIL!

Sounds pandemically familiar (basic issue occurred during H1N1 planning in '08)

C_M_25
02-15-2021, 04:45 PM
seems like the models are ramping up snow totals again. They are all coming into a bit more agreement too for the area. Most of the snow in SE oklahoma. Looks like central oklahoma could be in that 3-5 inch range (10:1) with some areas getting more depending on snow banding. Does that sound about right to the meteorologists in the group?

TheTravellers
02-15-2021, 06:49 PM
Sounds pandemically familiar (basic issue occurred during H1N1 planning in '08)

Yeah, ridiculous now and ridiculous then. "Unprecedented" does not mean "throw up your hands and blither around like idiots not doing anything except saying "it's unprecedented" over and over again". You can still *plan* for unprecedented events, and then try to ensure that what's behind your plan is solid.

BoulderSooner
02-15-2021, 06:58 PM
most of the locals saying between 5-8 for tomorrow into Wednesday

TheTravellers
02-15-2021, 06:58 PM
Apparently Cherokee Nation will be closing businesses and casinos tonight to help out our sad power grid.

mugofbeer
02-15-2021, 07:40 PM
OK's power grid is fine.

OG&E said they won't be having any rolling blackouts.

You need to count your blessings. Rolling blackouts are occurring in Kansas but especially in Texas. Dallas is having them and 40% of Austin is out. It's great Texas has 20% of their power generation through wind but it doesn't help if your wind turbines are frozen and not generating.

Bill Robertson
02-15-2021, 07:45 PM
seems like the models are ramping up snow totals again. They are all coming into a bit more agreement too for the area. Most of the snow in SE oklahoma. Looks like central oklahoma could be in that 3-5 inch range (10:1) with some areas getting more depending on snow banding. Does that sound about right to the meteorologists in the group?
Just looked at GFS and NAM. Between the two it's 2-6 so 3-5 is close. HRRR is showing 4 in the metro. NOAA says 1-3 Tuesday night then flurries Wednesday.

C_M_25
02-15-2021, 08:09 PM
OK's power grid is fine.

OG&E said they won't be having any rolling blackouts.

You need to count your blessings. Rolling blackouts are occurring in Kansas but especially in Texas. Dallas is having them and 40% of Austin is out. It's great Texas has 20% of their power generation through wind but it doesn't help if your wind turbines are frozen and not generating.

I’m sorry but I will not count my blessing as this entire situation is unacceptable. The lack of planning. The lack of foresight. These executives jumped head first into wind and solar with dollar bill signs in their eyes without thinking about the “what if’s.” This is the greatest freaking country in the world and our infrastructure is being taken down by a week long cold snap.

Here’s a thought. We’re nowhere near ready for renewables to take over...at all...at the moment. Hopefully the country sees what’s happening and wakes up. There is no plan for energy transition. We’re just plodding along hoping for the best. Look at us now.

kukblue1
02-15-2021, 08:21 PM
HRRR coming in at 7.0 or 6-7 for the metro. Gfs is 4.6 with 4.5-6 for the Metro. Nam is 7.7 with 6.5-8.5. All have higher amounts south of i-40 That is 0000z updates. Also all of them now have it starting around 4pm which is a slight change it was 2 earlier also lasting until at least noon on Wednesday. So my best guess would be 5-7 NWS is 6-8 for the Metro. This is using a higher ratio than 10:1

BG918
02-15-2021, 08:45 PM
I’m sorry but I will not count my blessing as this entire situation is unacceptable. The lack of planning. The lack of foresight. These executives jumped head first into wind and solar with dollar bill signs in their eyes without thinking about the “what if’s.” This is the greatest freaking country in the world and our infrastructure is being taken down by a week long cold snap.

Here’s a thought. We’re nowhere near ready for renewables to take over...at all...at the moment. Hopefully the country sees what’s happening and wakes up. There is no plan for energy transition. We’re just plodding along hoping for the best. Look at us now.

Just wait until gas is banned from new buildings like what is happening in CA cities or severely limiting them in nearby cities like Denver: https://denverite.com/2021/01/26/denver-aims-to-ban-natural-gas-from-the-menu-of-energy-options-for-new-homes-and-buildings/ Then when the electricity goes out you'll really be screwed.

Bunty
02-15-2021, 08:57 PM
This is unbe-freaking-leavable....

It's been called off for now at least the one in Stillwater. Maybe Oklahoma's windmills didn't freeze up and have been doing some good with these record breaking wind chills.

BoulderSooner
02-15-2021, 09:00 PM
edmond didn't have any blackouts (well at least in my neighborhood.

SEMIweather
02-15-2021, 09:02 PM
Not that I expect my post to change anyone's viewpoint (and there's probably a decent chance that this entire series of posts gets deleted anyways), but here's a lengthy Twitter thread explaining that 80+% of the capacity loss in Texas today was natural gas related. https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361348544154664961

SEMIweather
02-15-2021, 09:06 PM
It's been called off for now at least the one in Stillwater. Maybe Oklahoma's windmills didn't freeze up and have been doing some good with these record breaking wind chills.

I've been reading a bunch of articles about the Texas situation, and it seems like the main reason Oklahoma has (thus far) avoided a similar crunch is that our grid is better integrated with neighboring states than Texas, which is largely on its own grid.

This is probably the best overview I've seen: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

Another good one: https://spacecityweather.com/the-power-situation-is-disastrous-and-it-likely-wont-be-fixed-tonight/

mugofbeer
02-15-2021, 09:17 PM
I’m sorry but I will not count my blessing as this entire situation is unacceptable. The lack of planning. The lack of foresight. These executives jumped head first into wind and solar with dollar bill signs in their eyes without thinking about the “what if’s.” This is the greatest freaking country in the world and our infrastructure is being taken down by a week long cold snap.

Here’s a thought. We’re nowhere near ready for renewables to take over...at all...at the moment. Hopefully the country sees what’s happening and wakes up. There is no plan for energy transition. We’re just plodding along hoping for the best. Look at us now.

The power companies aren't ever going maintain that kind of excess capacity for a once in 50 year event. A few people in my neighborhood have generators but my power has only gone out once or twice in 20 years.

It's not just the "lousy, unacceptible" US infrastructure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid

mugofbeer
02-15-2021, 09:36 PM
Also, go over to the Artic Freeze and Oil & Gas Prices thread. Apparently part of the issue isn't infrastructure but a massive spike in NG Spot prices.

Bunty
02-15-2021, 09:52 PM
WOW, Stillwater city workers had to go to Kaw Lake to thaw out water pumps to make sure the town had water. But were only able to thaw out two of five pumps, but enough to divert a water crisis. Believe me, I'm anxious to get these below zero temps over with:

https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/stillwater-crews-thaw-kaw-pump-station-avert-water-shortage/article_b9004d22-6fe3-11eb-9c25-833f5c1c118e.html

C_M_25
02-15-2021, 09:53 PM
Also, go over to the Artic Freeze and Oil & Gas Prices thread. Apparently part of the issue isn't infrastructure but a massive spike in NG Spot prices.

Spot prices have skyrocketed because of this massive increase in demand and declining supply.

Annnnnnnnwaaaaayyyuu....SNOW and cold. Back on topic lol. It’s really cold out. The hinges on my door have warped and I can barely close my front door as it’s hanging up on the door frame. Let’s get the last storm out of the way because the GFS is showing 80 deg next week!!! Bring it on!

C_M_25
02-15-2021, 09:58 PM
The power companies aren't ever going maintain that kind of excess capacity for a once in 50 year event. A few people in my neighborhood have generators but my power has only gone out once or twice in 20 years.

It's not just the "lousy, unacceptible" US infrastructure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid

That was a fascinating read. Interesting that Germany switched to renewables but is relying on neighbors for the energy they’re not getting from their own generation. What happens when everybody switched to renewables? It all sounds like a major headache. We’ll get it figured out but we still need to maintain conventional supplies so people don’t die during times like these.

Bunty
02-15-2021, 10:01 PM
Spot prices have skyrocketed because of this massive increase in demand and declining supply.

Annnnnnnnwaaaaayyyuu....SNOW and cold. Back on topic lol. It’s really cold out. The hinges on my door have warped and I can barely close my front door as it’s hanging up on the door frame. Let’s get the last storm out of the way because the GFS is showing 80 deg next week!!! Bring it on!

80 degrees? Thank God for the little blessings, I mean BIG blessings!

PoliSciGuy
02-15-2021, 10:03 PM
Yeeeesh, plumbers are gonna make *bank* these next few days with this rapid temperature change

mugofbeer
02-15-2021, 10:06 PM
Spot prices have skyrocketed because of this massive increase in demand and declining supply.

Annnnnnnnwaaaaayyyuu....SNOW and cold. Back on topic lol. It’s really cold out. The hinges on my door have warped and I can barely close my front door as it’s hanging up on the door frame. Let’s get the last storm out of the way because the GFS is showing 80 deg next week!!! Bring it on!

Then, you're going to have to watch for breaking water mains.

SEMIweather
02-15-2021, 10:50 PM
Most of the models are really honing in on about 6-8" of snow for OKC with this next storm. Snow should start tomorrow afternoon, with the heaviest falling tomorrow night and then tapering off during the day on Wednesday. We need 7" to fall at the airport to set an all-time record for snowiest winter in OKC history (we are currently at 18.3" and the record is 25.2" back in 1947-48).

After this storm passes, we'll finally begin a lengthy warm-up, though it'll be tempered at first due to a deep snowpack that'll take a while to melt. Once all of the snow is finally gone on Saturday or Sunday, the warm-up will become even more pronounced. Entirely possible that we'll be well into the 60's by this time next week.

NikonNurse
02-16-2021, 04:55 AM
The pipes on my hot water heater froze last night. A hair dryer on the pipes helped thaw them temporarily but they’ve since frozen up again. Yeah I’m pretty ready for it to warm up now... Yup my furnace condenser line froze around 900pm last night. Pretty convenient for nothing open and ridiculous HVAC rates to come out. Needless to say, Im pretty cold and want the sun to actually do its job and warm this crap up.

PoliSciGuy
02-16-2021, 07:57 AM
As I’m sure a lot of you have noticed, rolling blackouts are beginning again. My power went out about an hour ago and is supposed to be back on at 8:30am. We’ll see if that happens.

Libbymin
02-16-2021, 08:02 AM
Yeah my power just went out too. SO ready for this week to be over with.

OKCbyTRANSFER
02-16-2021, 08:09 AM
From channel 5:
OG&E starts controlled power outages in areas including OKC as SPP declares Energy Emergency Level 3

Anonymous.
02-16-2021, 08:12 AM
De Ja Vu. Snow will develop across NW TX this afternoon and spread into SW OK. Highest amounts look to be across SC and probably extreme SE OK. Bulk of snow in C OK looks like it will end overnight. This will be a quick one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021021612/hrrr_asnow_scus_42.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021021612/namconus_asnow_scus_10.png

TheTravellers
02-16-2021, 09:33 AM
From channel 5:
OG&E starts controlled power outages in areas including OKC as SPP declares Energy Emergency Level 3

Already happened to me. Completely pathetic that we're "the greatest country in the world" and it's 20+ years into the *21st* century and our power grid infrastructure is in such sh*tty shape. Where are the flying cars, automatic food dispensers, all the really interesting technology? Oh wait, we can't keep the power on...

Bellaboo
02-16-2021, 09:46 AM
^^^ It's not just the fact the country is having record low temps in 40 states, and with those temps gas processing and well heads are freezing up. A lot of the wind turbines in Texas are froze up too. Blame the weather if you will ?

TheTravellers
02-16-2021, 10:03 AM
^^^ It's not just the fact the country is having record low temps in 40 states, and with those temps gas processing and well heads are freezing up. A lot of the wind turbines in Texas are froze up too. Blame the weather if you will ?

So why can't the lower half of the country implement at least *some* of the things the upper half of the country has (or Canada, or Russia, or any other state/nation that gets this cold regularly) in order to keep the heat on? sciencenews.org published this a year ago (can't read it due to subscribers-only) - "The U.S. power grid desperately needs upgrades to handle climate change". I'd bet that power companies across the US have paid soooooo much money to shareholders that should've gone to capital investment or maintenance that it would disgust me, so I probably won't even look it up (had personal experience with deferred maintenance for years when we had ComEd in IL and that was a complete fiasco, and basically was exactly what I said above about shareholders, etc.).

OKCbyTRANSFER
02-16-2021, 10:55 AM
Channel 4 now saying the rolling black outs have stopped as of 1030AM (ish)

Bunty
02-16-2021, 11:46 AM
Yeeeesh, plumbers are gonna make *bank* these next few days with this rapid temperature change

Hopefully, plastic pipes are more resistant to cold damage than copper and other metal pipes.

SEMIweather
02-16-2021, 11:59 AM
Still thinking about 6-8" for the Metro with this storm, which should start between 3-5 p.m. this afternoon. Vast majority of the snow should fall overnight as Anonymous was saying, and then maybe some wrap-around snow showers persisting into tomorrow afternoon. Snow will be over by sunset tomorrow at the latest, and that (thankfully) looks to be the last of the winter precipitation for the foreseeable future.

Temperature at Will Rogers hit -14F this morning, which is the second coldest reading in OKC history. (Coldest is -17F on 2/12/1899.)

Bunty
02-16-2021, 12:29 PM
So why can't the lower half of the country implement at least *some* of the things the upper half of the country has (or Canada, or Russia, or any other state/nation that gets this cold regularly) in order to keep the heat on? sciencenews.org published this a year ago (can't read it due to subscribers-only) - "The U.S. power grid desperately needs upgrades to handle climate change". I'd bet that power companies across the US have paid soooooo much money to shareholders that should've gone to capital investment or maintenance that it would disgust me, so I probably won't even look it up (had personal experience with deferred maintenance for years when we had ComEd in IL and that was a complete fiasco, and basically was exactly what I said above about shareholders, etc.).

Probably for the same reason we can't move all electrical lines underground. It would be too costly.

I blame it mainly on the regulators who surely saw unprecedented intense cold was coming that wasn't going to promptly go away and get more ready for it. The natural gas price restrictions should have been released last week.

Outhunder
02-16-2021, 12:34 PM
Guess my comment about stitt got deleted. I thought it was relevant since there is discussion ongoing about the rolling blackouts. Stitt did go on channel 9 this morning discussing this event and thus showing how clueless he is. Of well. Sure this will be deleted as well.