Just started snowing heavily in Downtown OKC. KOCO Met. Jonathan Conder is getting lots of hate on FB because people thought the first wave was it for the storm.

The local Mets did set the bar pretty high. Still impressive storm for Oklahoma, but I'm still skeptical we will hit 10 inches. Still more a few more hours of snow to go though. Plus, the extreme cold in my opinion is the bigger story at least when it comes to threatening conditions.

The big issue is going to be drifting, as the snow is very dry and light and we continue to have some good winds.

I've already got a big pile outside of my back door.

How did we get to a point where we need wall to wall coverage for snow??

Also, I feel like like these modern Mets rely almost exclusively on models. In my field, models are used as approximations. We look at various model runs and evaluate, not only the trends within an iteration, but also the trends between iterations. Based on that, we make interpretations guided by those models but also based on our experiences in similar situations. I get the feeling like these guys get so hung up on the “moment/one model run that shows massive snow totals” that they don’t step back and just interpret what they’re seeing. At the very least, that is my perception.

How did we get to a point where we need wall to wall coverage for snow??

Also, I feel like like these modern Mets rely almost exclusively on models. In my field, models are used as approximations. We look at various model runs and evaluate, not only the trends within an iteration, but also the trends between iterations. Based on that, we make interpretations guided by those models but also based on our experiences in similar situations. I get the feeling like these guys get so hung up on the “moment/one model run that shows massive snow totals” that they don’t step back and just interpret what they’re seeing. At the very least, that is my perception.

News is a business and need to sell a story that people want to watch.

Also, from above, meteorology is an incredibly complex science and the models are far from perfect. I know we’re miles ahead of where we were 20 years ago. Unfortunately, we suffer from the need to draw ratings which ultimately is a bad thing.

News is a business and need to sell a story that people want to watch.

Ha, beat me to it.

How did we get to a point where we need wall to wall coverage for snow??

Also, I feel like like these modern Mets rely almost exclusively on models. In my field, models are used as approximations. We look at various model runs and evaluate, not only the trends within an iteration, but also the trends between iterations. Based on that, we make interpretations guided by those models but also based on our experiences in similar situations. I get the feeling like these guys get so hung up on the “moment/one model run that shows massive snow totals” that they don’t step back and just interpret what they’re seeing. At the very least, that is my perception.

There's some veracity to the reliance on models, but I think in meteorology especially models is pretty much *all* you have to try and predict the future (other than the Farmer's Almanac). A "good" met would couch their analysis by showing multiple runs from multiple models and educating viewers about the range of possible outcomes. Bad mets find the most extreme run from the most extreme model and then hype it up for clicks/eyeballs. I'll let readers decide which ones we have here in OKC.

Also, weather models are getting pretty darned good in general, especially within the 72 hour window.

I was watching Aaron Tuttle's live broadcast Twitter and he estimated 12 inches for today. This would be about in the middle of most new channels. I have didn't watch yesterday evening for any updates for more precision.

I have lived in other parts of the country where it snows and have gotten bust forecasts, so it's not just particular to Oklahoma.

, it seems like we are getting pretty decent amounts but it As much as the wind is blowing this powder around , it seems like less. (?)

So far the area north of Enid is winning by miles in terms of snow. Short-range models comin around to the idea of maybe some additional wrap-around waves. But I wouldn’t hold my breath for a foot in OKC barring something crazy happening.

And yes, the wind and powder nature of the snow makes it very hard to visualize. I have a wind isolated area downtown and I see about 3 inches so far as of 1PM.

Reed Timmer driving live in the snow near Yukon. So far second round of snow not that heavy in Stillwater. Oops, just ended.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=443873463724086&ref=notif&notif_id=1613315747728120&notif_t=live_video

As far as wall to wall coverage, well its much better then infomercials. Not much on Sunday afternoons.

Getting very difficult to see how this doesn't underperform.

Still a pretty darned good snowburst. If this wasn't hyped to the gills earlier this week it'd be pretty significant.

Quite a bit of snow here at my house in central okc.

... A "good" met would couch their analysis by showing multiple runs from multiple models and educating viewers about the range of possible outcomes. Bad mets find the most extreme run from the most extreme model and then hype it up for clicks/eyeballs. I'll let readers decide which ones we have here in OKC....

Weather Channel does exactly what you say "good" mets do. Only time I *ever* watch local weather is if I'm at home and there are massive thunderstorms or tornadoes right in the metro and I only watch their radar with the sound off.

Downtown OKC snow is tapering off. Looks like around 5 inches.

Hard to tell. I have from almost zero in spots to about 2 feet depending on how the wind swirls around the house. In the middle of the front yard where it's pretty level there's about 6 inches.

I would love to know how the airport takes official measurements during storms like these with high winds and powdery snow.

Big pile-up at I-44 around Post Road.

Measure as many spots as you can take an average but it's still a guess game to a point. They use snowboards at Airport but when it's this light and fluffy it's still a roll of the dice. Unless your in a someone wooded area with little wind it's going to be hard to measure. I want to say 5-6 over by the outlet mall for me. I have seen anywhere from 5-8 in the metro.

I'm assuming it has to do with the temps and wind but our house has never made as many popping/creaking sounds as it has in the last 24 hours.

I would guess 7.5 to 8.5 in northeast Edmond

I'm curious how things will look in the morning. Our backyard has very little snow, but the front of our house was pretty deep. If snow keeps on blowing and drifting we might have some messy spots.

I'm assuming it has to do with the temps and wind but our house has never made as many popping/creaking sounds as it has in the last 24 hours.

Tomorrow night is going to be wild for this. Realistic chance we get down to -12 which would would tie for our second coldest temperature ever.

So be sure to start letting your faucets drip and open cabinet doors under sinks to prevent frozen water pipes, if you haven't already started doing it. This long lived intense cold is highly unusual. Probably pipes better drip all the time until the cold finally lets up.

Insane temperatures throughout the Midwest. Ely Minnesota, near Canada, had a reported temperature reading of-50°F.

Cannot even believe.

Our water pressure has gotten lower as the day has worn on and I’ve seen lots of people on NextDoor say the same thing. Keeping my sinks at more of a steady drizzle than a drip, keeping the cabinet doors open, and hoping for the best.

Pipes are frozen at Draper resulting in low water pressure, or none at all on the southside.

I have a flight on Thursday morning from OKC to DFW, I wonder if I'm going to have any issues.

We have kept a pot of water on the stove on low simmer with some cinnamon sticks to keep the humidity up inside to help our heater out a little. I guess electric and gas are having problems with demand and suffering from low pressure in some places?

All our faucets are dripping. We don’t have any pipes on external walls, but we don’t want to end up with a freeze between the meter and the house so we are trying to keep a steady flow through that pipe. I also have a bathtub with water for toilet flushing purposes just in case ��

We have kept a pot of water on the stove on low simmer with some cinnamon sticks to keep the humidity up inside to help our heater out a little. I guess electric and gas are having problems with demand and suffering from low pressure in some places?

All our faucets are dripping. We don’t have any pipes on external walls, but we don’t want to end up with a freeze between the meter and the house so we are trying to keep a steady flow through that pipe. I also have a bathtub with water for toilet flushing purposes just in case ��
I've got three pipes on outside walls. Two are outside faucets. I have lamps with old- fashioned incandescent bulbs right by where the plumbing is. The third is the refrigerator ice maker connection and I think the frige makes enough heat to keep that wall warm.

As far as wall to wall coverage, well its much better then infomercials. Not much on Sunday afternoons.
THIS...reminds me, sadly, that football season is over. :(

Measure as many spots as you can take an average but it's still a guess game to a point. They use snowboards at Airport but when it's this light and fluffy it's still a roll of the dice. Unless your in a someone wooded area with little wind it's going to be hard to measure. I want to say 5-6 over by the outlet mall for me. I have seen anywhere from 5-8 in the metro.

They use “SNOWBOARDS?” Righteous powder for that dude! lol

The story obviously at this point is the cold. The sheer area that this covers is causing major supply chain disruptions for natural gas. Heard the spot price was up to $600 from $2.50. Until supply catches up or demand drops, we’re going to be looking at some pretty bad bills coming our way.

The low gas pressure has also caused several people to have issues with their heaters in our neighborhood already. Several busted pipes as well. We need to thaw out in a hurry.

Yeah it’s not as though we’ve never had single digit temps from time to time but I can’t think of too many years where we’ve had this many consecutive days with well below freezing temps.

I managed to switch my natural gas bill to average monthly billing earlier this month, so I hope that will help absorb some of the damage.

4" of snow on my patio at midnight tonight, so well short of the 10-15" the TV weather people were trying to scare me with. Other patios may differ. Hopefully, the 2nd round for Tuesday won't be any worse.

Stillwater as of midnight has 0 to 2 degrees and falling with forecast low down to -5. Temps for lows here haven't been below zero since Feb. 2011. If this is about climate change, then I miss the good 'ol days of climate change. Back 10 years ago on Feb 10 the low got clear down to 10 below in Stillwater, 5 below for Oklahoma City. Yet, just two days later the high had jacked up to the low 60s. And that wasn't enough. On Feb. 17 the temp further jacked up to the low 80s. For now, the temp hasn't been above freezing here since Sunday Feb. 7th. This freaky long cold spell has been quite bewildering for February. I would have bet it would have happened in January, not February.

And I thought things like this only happen when it's unusually hot during the summer:

Stillwater and other power providers ask for power conservation, warn of possible outages

I'm seeing similar patterns in the models this morning that I observed right before our last storm...yet the meteorologists never acknowledged them.

The latest runs of the GFS have been reducing snow totals and pushing the storm further south and east again. David Payne was showing up to 12 inches of snow for tomorrow's storm. I'm calling bust, yet again, on those amounts.

Not really sure how you can consider this a bust. Yeah the totals were lower but come on.

Next storm looks to be taking nearly identical path to this last one. The low is expected to track NE TX into AR. This will be the best shot for largest accumulations. This looks like a major storm for AR especially.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021021512/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_41.png

Next storm looks to be taking nearly identical path to this last one. The low is expected to track NE TX into AR. This will be the best shot for largest accumulations. This looks like a major storm for AR especially.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2021021512/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_41.png

Not really sure how you can consider this a bust. Yeah the totals were lower but come on.

Yeah, a true bust would have been no snow. Maybe I'm being too hard on them...

It was definitely much less than the "class 3 killstorm" they were predicting. (anybody get that reference, btw?)

The pipes on my hot water heater froze last night. A hair dryer on the pipes helped thaw them temporarily but they’ve since frozen up again. Yeah I’m pretty ready for it to warm up now...

SMH. Morgan was clapping back on Twitter to people. He was claiming that the 10-15 inches he had was for both storms not just Sunday Storm. Not how it came across to me but whatever. Channel 5 had maps with 15-20 inch totals. SMH. 9 was 6-12 they were a tad better even though just this morning they were saying South Okc received 11 inches. Not sure I have seen anything higher than 8 in the metro but yeah ok whatever. SMH. They Hype train needs to slow down some. Even TV meteorologist from other markets were questioning how OKC was showing total snow fall maps 4 days before the storm. It's crazy to give totals more than 2 days out. SMH

On the topic of Tuesday storm I'm worried that many are going to now be caught off guard. This one is going to start around 2 pm when more people are going to be on the roads and traveling home from work around 5. Snow we have now is not going to go anywhere or melt off the roads. Many might think meh last storm we didn't get as much so this is going to be no big deal. Have a bad feeling that Tuesday night is the night we are going to see people strained on the highways

It was definitely much less than the "class 3 killstorm" they were predicting. (anybody get that reference, btw?)

Upgraded from Winter Wonderland.

Albinos virtually invisible..

Upgraded from Winter Wonderland.

Albinos virtually invisible..

YES!! lol

Round 1 down. What do we have for round two experts?

My power and water stayed on. Crossing fingers this continues.

SMH. Morgan was clapping back on Twitter to people. He was claiming that the 10-15 inches he had was for both storms not just Sunday Storm. Not how it came across to me but whatever. Channel 5 had maps with 15-20 inch totals. SMH. 9 was 6-12 they were a tad better even though just this morning they were saying South Okc received 11 inches. Not sure I have seen anything higher than 8 in the metro but yeah ok whatever. SMH. They Hype train needs to slow down some. Even TV meteorologist from other markets were questioning how OKC was showing total snow fall maps 4 days before the storm. It's crazy to give totals more than 2 days out. SMH

Totally agree. They HYPE machine at it's best. The producers want to squeeze every bit of drama out of these storms for ratings, ad money, etc. Lane just yesterday was advertising highs in the 80s next week. Seriously? It's a shame really, because when Lane was new he did not do this click-baiting drama ever, but has slowly come around to doing it. Not sure if it was because everyone else was doing it and maybe the ownership pressed him. . . But nonetheless, they just forecast right off of models anymore and never use their gut. They right out name the models in the newscasts now. It's really incredible. The only person I ever believe is my orange-tinted muscular friend, Aaron Tuttle. I do enjoy watching his undramatized forecasts.

I've got three pipes on outside walls. Two are outside faucets. I have lamps with old- fashioned incandescent bulbs right by where the plumbing is. The third is the refrigerator ice maker connection and I think the frige makes enough heat to keep that wall warm.

My mom's washer pipes froze, they're on an outside north wall, house built in the 70s (thought pipes in outside walls was against code, but maybe just in the north and Canada, none of ours are in outside walls, house built in 1950), but none of our pipes have frozen so far. Got a remote thermometer and stuck it in our crawlspace, lowest it's been is 38 this morning (we apparently have no insulation around our ducts, so that's both a good (warmer floors, pipes won't freeze until it gets colder than this) and a bad (lots of waste heat, but at least it goes to a good cause :)) thing. Heater was set at 70-ish and kept running for 30 minutes on, 3 mins off, etc., but set it at 66 last night, still running a lot, just hope all the bearings, capacitors, etc. hold up for another few days.

Its possible we may see rolling blackouts like in Texas.

https://www.stwnewspress.com/news/energy-emergency-alert-level-3-issued-blackouts-possible/article_b8ae8242-6fae-11eb-8f86-634320c14627.html

I'm no expert, but I'm not excited about what I'm seeing on the NAM for this next system. Looks very ragged with a lot of dry air hanging around. Wonder if they moisture will be cut off?

SMH. Morgan was clapping back on Twitter to people. He was claiming that the 10-15 inches he had was for both storms not just Sunday Storm. Not how it came across to me but whatever. Channel 5 had maps with 15-20 inch totals. SMH. 9 was 6-12 they were a tad better even though just this morning they were saying South Okc received 11 inches. Not sure I have seen anything higher than 8 in the metro but yeah ok whatever. SMH. They Hype train needs to slow down some. Even TV meteorologist from other markets were questioning how OKC was showing total snow fall maps 4 days before the storm. It's crazy to give totals more than 2 days out. SMH

Even if it did snow 1 plus foot of snow, 1 foot of dry snow is a lot better than 1 foot of wet snow. I'm not going to worry too much about the hype train, its bad enough with the extreme cold. I'll take a win wherever we can get it.

Totally agree. They HYPE machine at it's best. The producers want to squeeze every bit of drama out of these storms for ratings, ad money, etc. Lane just yesterday was advertising highs in the 80s next week. Seriously? It's a shame really, because when Lane was new he did not do this click-baiting drama ever, but has slowly come around to doing it. Not sure if it was because everyone else was doing it and maybe the ownership pressed him. . . But nonetheless, they just forecast right off of models anymore and never use their gut. They right out name the models in the newscasts now. It's really incredible. The only person I ever believe is my orange-tinted muscular friend, Aaron Tuttle. I do enjoy watching his undramatized forecasts.

Tuttle is just as bad as the others nowadays and does it for clicks. Do you follow him on Facebook? He called for a foot of snow as well. Also showed maps of 30" in OKC a few days ago.

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Tuttle is just as bad as the others nowadays and does it for clicks. Do you follow him on Facebook? He called for a foot of snow as well. Also showed maps of 30" in OKC a few days ago.

I can't stand tuttle anymore. I used to watch him, but he is so self-absorbed and is always peddling his stupid crap. The fact that his face is on his app every time you open it makes me want to delete it altogether. However, it's one of the better weather apps out there unfortunately....

Do you drip your faucets if you have a slab foundation?

This is Smitty Park in Northwest OKC:

HTTP://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/smitty021521a.jpg

Do you drip your faucets if you have a slab foundation?

Yes, its very possible your pipes that stick out of the ground along exterior walls will freeze. I had that happen once, it was when I came back in town, I discovered my pipes frozen after days of no water usage.

My dad had a pipe freeze yesterday, his house is only 2 to 3 years old, insulation should have been better.