18Z data across multiple models is coming in now. Will post an update once we get it all.

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

I kinda feel like this recent GFS run really changed the track of the storm quite a bit. It looks like it's taking a more southerly track which has reduced the snow in the NW part of the state. Seeing that, I'm starting to sense the iconic dry slot setting up and drastically reducing snow totals. I'm smelling a bust in the air.

In fact, the last 5 model iterations have been progressively tracking this storm further south each time. Curious what the NAM shows.

I kinda feel like this recent GFS run really changed the track of the storm quite a bit. It looks like it's taking a more southerly track which has reduced the snow in the NW part of the state. Seeing that, I'm starting to sense the iconic dry slot setting up and drastically reducing snow totals. I'm smelling a bust in the air.

I'm liking how you think. A bust would make my week, month and maybe year!

I am assuming even with no precip or light precip we still get the mother of all wind chills hitting us?

Todays 12z GFS run drops the snow totals to 4 to 5 inches North and West of a line from Lawton to Muskogee and 6 to 7 inches South and East. Keep trending down!!!!

is that based on 1:10 ratio or 1:20 ??

is that based on 1:10 ratio or 1:20 ??
10:1 but the real ratio probably won't really be known.

18z NAM-12km has total snow down to 4 inches for the metro. I hope this trend holds up.

10:1 but the real ratio probably won't really be known.

18z NAM-12km has total snow down to 4 inches for the metro. I hope this trend holds up.

i lived in boulder long enough to know that if the temp is 10 degrees the ratio is very likely to be 20:1 or higher ...

Looking more and more like this storm is going to send a first round of heavy snow that develops somewhere out in W OK and tracks to the NE. Then there will be a short break before the next main wave of heavy snow comes in from the W. The track of the main low will determine who gets an additional dumping of snow. Right now that track is trending toward S/SE OK, so it may give the final blow to that part of the state. We will have to watch very closely as it evolves and ejects into Texas. There will be 1 or 2 main bands of very heavy snow that lay down the most hurt, the way these bands evolve and fluctuate will determine the heaviest snow pathing.

We will need to wait for the higher definition short-range models to load in for some run-to-run consistency. That will happen late tonight.

Right now if I had to guess, the GEM seems the most reasonable to me out of all of these models below.

Here are some maps that show dramatically different results:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021218/gfs_asnow_scus_13.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021021218/nam3km_asnow_scus_61.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021218/rgem_asnow_scus_67.png

i lived in boulder long enough to know that if the temp is 10 degrees the ratio is very likely to be 20:1 or higher ...

AMEN. 10-1 ratio is pretty dated. High is supposed to be 8 so we might even be pushing 25:1 ratio. I like NWS going with 6-10. The TV media of course is going with worse case which is possible but a rational person would go 8-10

My semi-educated guess right now is 5-8" over the Metro. Models have definitely trended downwards with QPF in the last 24 hours. At the same time, I'm getting more interested in the potential midweek storm, although it's probably pointless to forecast that one until the first one moves out.

Some parts of the Metro have around an inch already just for the all day snow today. The fact that it as snowed all day with no storm system around is pretty amazing. And the little it I had at my house was fluffy. This stuff might pile up fast.

heard a lot of it may be lake effect snow from Hefner/Overholser ?
Really?!

So how bad and rare is it really? Well, ten years ago in a rare blizzard, Tulsa area got up to 21" of snow, but officially 14". Tulsa had a record low of -12. Oklahoma City got 12" of snow. Low in OKC got to -5.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evqDwW36Ppk

heard a lot of it may be lake effect snow from Hefner/Overholser ?
Really?!

Yeah, channel 9's David Payne showed on video how there was more snow on OKC streets affected by lake effect snow.

Varied winter weather predictions for Oklahoma show 'it's a complicated profession,' meteorologist says.
https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/varied-winter-weather-predictions-for-oklahoma-show-its-a-complicated-profession-meteorologist-says/article_e3814e74-6cbf-11eb-b882-f314abfe46b1.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

Winter Storm Warning for every single county in OK. I think this is the first time in history that has happened. Insanely good model agreement this morning. Hot spot looks like it will be where ever this initial band of heavy snow pops up this evening. Somewhere along I-44 corridor looks likely.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021021306/nam3km_asnow_scus_54.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021306/gfs_asnow_scus_10.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021306/rgem_asnow_scus_54.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021021300/gem_asnow_scus_10.png

So we should be thinking about a 15:1 ratio while looking at these?

Texas is getting more snow than us

High definition models really honing in on I-44.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021021312/nam3km_asnow_scus_49.png

So we should be thinking about a 15:1 ratio while looking at these?

It will be 20:1 or more

Average of every model run I looked at this morning for OKC is 7.8", which seems like a good over/under for the first storm.

For the second storm, there are some wild differences between the GFS (potentially historic snowfall totals) and the Euro (a relatively minor, advisory-criteria snowfall), with the Canadian falling somewhere in the middle and showing a snowfall that would be roughly on par with tomorrow's totals. Should hopefully start to see some more agreement here over the next 24-48 hours.

I was going going to post the same thing as above. 8-10 tomorrow and Wednesday which does look stronger a bit further south as of now but still could be a big snow

Driving around today I saw a bunch of places where pipes had clearly burst and flooded the street.

We're going to see lots more of that in the next few days.

NAM continuing to go bullish on heavy snow in C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021021318/nam3km_asnow_scus_44.png

David Payne on Facebook Live showing people a model with 31.5 inches of snow between Sunday-Wednesday in OKC. Lol.

For anyone wanting to drive around and see something neat before the storm, both the Oklahoma River and Lake Overholser have frozen over. Has to be the first time that's happened in decades. Lake Hefner is still holding strong but there's a ton of steam coming off of the surface. Lots of neat hoar frost on the trees near the shores of Hefner and Overholser as well.

GFS and GEM both falling in line with I-44 corridor. Perhaps favoring The southern edge of that. Models are really coming around to the idea of enhanced snow development with wrap-around that gets dragged directly through C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2021021318/rgem_asnow_scus_43.png

Here is a snapshot of the storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. Showing heavy snow across all of OK and a major icestorm across the Dallas Ft Worth metros.

We will likely see Winter Storm Watches instantly taking place of the current Winter Storm Warnings by Monday morning. There may even be overlapping watch/warnings which I think may also be a first for this area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021021318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_16.png

For anyone wanting to drive around and see something neat before the storm, both the Oklahoma River and Lake Overholser have frozen over. Has to be the first time that's happened in decades. Lake Hefner is still holding strong but there's a ton of steam coming off of the surface. Lots of neat hoar frost on the trees near the shores of Hefner and Overholser as well.


I lived at 36/Eagle Lane corner for years. Advertising this will surely attract the idiots to attempt walking/skating on it �� Happened more than once when I lived there. I also remember all the trees there before the massive ice storm around 2000-2001 destroyed them all.

Ugh, our snow removal infrastructure is gonna get overwhelmed I fear. Gonna be a long week.

Keep up the good updates by the way Anonymous, appreciate your posting of the model runs.

What are the chances that we see a legendary Snownado during this storm?

What are the chances that we see a legendary Snownado during this storm?
None. There isn't the warm air vs cold air collision that would be required for that.

Blizzardquake is always an option.

OKC meteorologist and NWS employee, Aaron Tuttle sees fit to go by what pivotal weather put up. It places Oklahoma City and Stillwater in the bullseye for the most snow. For the upcoming mid week storm, he sees a foot of snow coming. His Facebook page is here: https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather/photos/a.127898183896284/4047643211921742/

https://okie.world/photos/snowfeb14.png

For anyone wanting to drive around and see something neat before the storm, both the Oklahoma River and Lake Overholser have frozen over. Has to be the first time that's happened in decades. Lake Hefner is still holding strong but there's a ton of steam coming off of the surface. Lots of neat hoar frost on the trees near the shores of Hefner and Overholser as well.

Boomer Lake in Stillwater about froze over on Saturday The couple hundred or so geese there are dealing with it the best they can, but in different ways. A good many stay out of the lake. Some swim in the ice water. Others perplexingly enough sat on the ice motionless with their necks tucked in as pictured in the background of this picture. I guess from being hardy as Canadian geese, they'll make it, since they weren't still there shortly before dark.

https://okie.world/photos/frozengeese.jpg

What are the chances that we see a legendary Snownado during this storm?

It's Oklahoma. Maybe a perchnado. :)

Thank goodness the last week of February doesn't look bitter cold:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Keep up the good updates by the way Anonymous, appreciate your posting of the model runs.

Surely they'll be away from the state, it's a common occurrence for weather events :p

Incredible how far south into Texas below zero temps for lows are slated to go on the 16th. Part of northern Mexico will have snow.

https://okie.world/photos/feb16lows.jpg

First heavy snowband is forming right now across W OK. This will quickly spread east and strengthen into the morning hours. Then it will let up for a few hours before the next wave. This initial band and how long it stays over the same area will determine the snow total winners.

This will be fun to watch on radar tonight. I am actually in OKC for this event!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2021021400/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_32.png

I’m at work on south side and see huge snowflakes on my house camera from the north side....

Yea this massive snowband is about to lay down the pain. All of OKC will be in heavy snow for the next 3-4 hours.

Just looked out the window and we may have gotten a dusting from this first snowband in NW okc.

Just looked out the window and we may have gotten a dusting from this first snowband in NW okc.

I can personally say it’s more than a dusting . I got off at 3ish It started around 230. Ground went from dusting to a good inch or so in about 30 min. Drive home met me with blizzard ish snow and about 2 inches on lawn.

Yea this massive snowband is about to lay down the pain. All of OKC will be in heavy snow for the next 3-4 hours.

Seems to have been a bit of a bust, though I see round two is starting to approach from the west

Deer Creek area didn’t get much, but what we did get is dry and powdery and already blowing and drifting.

I dunno guys. I’m still feeling bust on this forecast. The snow is awfully slow coming in and we didn’t see what we were told we would see in that first snow band. I’m concerned that the dry slot is going to push south and cut off the snow before it really impacts okc. Just a gut feeling..

There can't be many cities in the world where temps exceed 100 in the summer and then dip below zero in the winter.

Then you add ice storms in the fall and tornados in the spring and OKC must have some of the most extreme weather of any decent-sized city.

First band definitely died out after starting strong. About 2-3 inches from it across OKC. But it is all blowing around so tough to see.

The banding hasn’t been able to get established too well except in very local area in N OK.

Obviously there is a large wave on its way but the past couple of radar sweeps are showing a clear dry air pocket moving into the city from northeast. Curious how long that sticks around or how much of an effect it has on the next wave.

This incoming wave will have to get its act together to see anything close to what models were predicting even last night. Right now it is a very broken up mess. I would still say based on current trends the heaviest accumulation looks to be I-44 or just south.

Is this supposed to be the main show or are we getting the heaviest stuff overnight?

Is this supposed to be the main show or are we getting the heaviest stuff overnight?

I could be wrong but I think the noon to this evening is the “big” wave.

Snowing hard in Yukon per Twitter and starting to snow harder in NE Edmond

Snowing pretty hard here near Penn Square.

Radar showing a pretty big band moving SW to NE that could keep us in moderate to heavy snow for a few hours.

Just started snowing heavily in Downtown OKC. KOCO Met. Jonathan Conder is getting lots of hate on FB because people thought the first wave was it for the storm.

The wave moving through right now should be the main wave, snow should really start to taper off this evening.

The latest HRRR run seems to have a good depiction of the current conditions and shows about 6" falling across the Metro with this wave in addition to anything that fell in the initial band overnight.

Yes this band getting stronger across the Lawton area is looking to be the show. Like SEMIweather said, probably a swath of 6” is a good bet according to models.

That would give the metro. Close to 10 from this storm.