Winter temperatures continue all week and get colder toward the back-end. Weak system comes through Wednesday into Thursday bringing small chance of some rain to snow. Right now it looks like nothing significant and the best chances for rain and snow is NE OK. Perhaps some accumulating wet snow Thursday morning in NC OK.

Weather remains quiet and average until about Dec 12 when the next storm comes through.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020113012/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_44.png

Things in the models getting a little bit juicer as we near the event timing for Wednesday night. Models predicting a further south track of the low. Which in turn could result in a brief period of heavy wet snow across I-35 corridor and points west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020120112/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_32.png

Winter storm warnings now up for W and NW OK, just outside the OKC/405 area.

I'm bad at attaching pictures but the 18z NAM 3Km has a somewhat smaller frozen precip area and the freezing line a little further west. I'm liking it better. Hopefully things will keep trending that way.

Yep last two runs tonight have re-opened the low. Resulting in dryslot south with coldeest air further NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020120200/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_29.png

Low is coming in completely unwrapped, so unless there is dramatic shift of the track - C OK will be mostly dry-slotted.

All short-range models agreeing on just about the same with far NW OK getting the snow, and N and NE getting the rain.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020120212/hrrr_apcpn_scus_27.png

Would love a simplified explanation as to why central Oklahoma gets consistently dry-slotted with winter storms? Just curious.

Would love a simplified explanation as to why central Oklahoma gets consistently dry-slotted with winter storms? Just curious.
I would like to know what causes this also. Until then I'll just sit back and enjoy it when it happens.

I would like to know what causes this also. Until then I'll just sit back and enjoy it when it happens.

This is pretty simple. Think of these storms as rotating masses of air around a low pressure system that rotates counterclockwise. The leading edge (eastern side) of this storm pulls warm and moist air from the gulf. This air gets pulled around the northern and eventually wraps around the western side of the storm. It has a lot of moisture in it hence the precipitation associated with it. At the same time, dry cold air is being pulled from north to south around the west side of this storm. This air can get wrapped up in the low. This air has little moisture so you don’t get any precipitation. It just happens that the time and track of many of these storms set okc in the dry slot part of the storm.

This is pretty simple. Think of these storms as rotating masses of air around a low pressure system that rotates counterclockwise. The leading edge (eastern side) of this storm pulls warm and moist air from the gulf. This air gets pulled around the northern and eventually wraps around the western side of the storm. It has a lot of moisture in it hence the precipitation associated with it. At the same time, dry cold air is being pulled from north to south around the west side of this storm. This air can get wrapped up in the low. This air has little moisture so you don’t get any precipitation. It just happens that the time and track of many of these storms set okc in the dry slot part of the storm.
I get all that. But what makes the storms form and or break up over OKC vs Tulsa or Amarillo or ?. Because it seems to be right over central OK more often than not. I've always assumed it has something to do with our position between the Rockies and the gulf and the effect those two have on system tracking.

I get all that. But what makes the storms form and or break up over OKC vs Tulsa or Amarillo or ?. Because it seems to be right over central OK more often than not. I've always assumed it has something to do with our position between the Rockies and the gulf and the effect those two have on system tracking.

We’re just in that sweet spot where unstable air gets pushed in via the jet stream and it mixes with that warm moist air from the gulf. I imagine everything sets up perfectly for all this stuff to mix right over Oklahoma. It’s interesting too when you look at our annual rainfall. There is almost a straight line through the middle of the state that runs right through okc where there is little rainfall west and lots of rainfall East. It really is a sweet spot of sorts.

I find it interesting how our severe weather line has shifted further East in recent years. Curious if this is the signs of a changing climate? Hope that rainfall line doesn’t push further East with time.

Harper County in the far NW corner of the state is going to end up with some pretty silly snowfall totals from this storm. Laverne and Buffalo were already at 13" and counting as of 6:00. Someone out there could easily end up with a storm total of 15-20".

Some speculate the 100th meridian line is pushing slightly east. OKC is in a very interesting and unique spot allowing signs of the desert west starting to show in the western metro yet the timber forests in the eastern metro are present.

Selfishly, I don’t have as a much of a problem with parts of Oklahoma being subject to desertification as I love the desert. I also love plants and trees as well.

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dividing-line-past-present-and-future-100th-meridian

Some speculate the 100th meridian line is pushing slightly east. OKC is in a very interesting and unique spot allowing signs of the desert west starting to show in the western metro yet the timber forests in the eastern metro are present.

Selfishly, I don’t have as a much of a problem with parts of Oklahoma being subject to desertification as I love the desert. I also love plants and trees as well.

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dividing-line-past-present-and-future-100th-meridian

Yes but this isn’t the scenic Arizona desert with cactus and palms, this is the High Plains desert. Think Amarillo, Midland, Dodge City, etc.

The 100th Meridian has historically been the dividing line between the humid subtropical east and the dry west. That line has been shifting toward the 98th Meridian which runs through both OKC and Dallas/Ft Worth.

https://www.earthmagazine.org/sites/earthmagazine.org/files/styles/full_width/public/2018-01/Cantner_100thMeridianMap.png?itok=ZVlZKi4v

https://media.npr.org/news/graphics/2018/08/map-us-east-west-624.png

I had always thought OKC was considered to be in the 99th meridian by now.

The closer the desert SW is the more the merrier LOL. I don’t mind the high plains desert but I do prefer the low desert over high desert given the flora that exists there.

I had always thought OKC was considered to be in the 99th meridian by now.

The closer the desert SW is the more the merrier LOL. I don’t mind the high plains desert but I do prefer the low desert over high desert given the flora that exists there.

Generally speaking you can grow palm trees in zones 8-10 which most of the southwest desert falls into. Most of Oklahoma is zone 7 with the exception of the southern parts along the Red River and swampy areas near Idabel (also the only part of OK where you can find alligators). Parts of northwest OK and the Panhandle are in zone 6.

https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/2045/8185/files/8_10_growing_zones_c21b200a-ab77-4a86-b7cc-ff282198134c.png?14030681699971117372

Yeah I always get jealous when I see a nice palm tree in Dallas. Speaking of the complete opposite I’m going to try and plant an Aspen Tree in Edmond and see if I can get it to grow. It might be too hot here but we’ll see. I’ve talked to some people who have said they’ve had luck and others not so much.

The last 30 years in OKC have actually had about 3" of additional precipitation on average compared to the previous 30 years. It will definitely be interesting to see how our precipitation trends evolve in the coming years as the climate continues to heat up, as we really are right on that dividing line between the Western U.S. which is trending drier and the Eastern U.S. which is trending wetter.

16605

Yeah I always get jealous when I see a nice palm tree in Dallas. Speaking of the complete opposite I’m going to try and plant an Aspen Tree in Edmond and see if I can get it to grow. It might be too hot here but we’ll see. I’ve talked to some people who have said they’ve had luck and others not so much.

I believe Aspen's grow in higher elevations in Colorado. So it could be a cold weather thing ?

Aspens will grow in Oklahoma but generally don’t like our hot summers.

Aspens will grow in Oklahoma but generally don’t like our hot summers.

Yep, that correlates, elevation above 8,000 feet means cool weather. At least compared to Oklahoma summers.

I would love if Palm Trees could live here, they are my favorite.

Great weather continues this week until Thursday night a front moves through. Slight rain chances with that, but should mostly be contained to E OK. Weekend looks cool and cloudy.

I would love if Palm Trees could live here, they are my favorite.


Some cold-hardy species can live and even thrive in our zone like Sabal palmettos. You can see variations of these growing at the OKC Zoo and at the Gathering Place in Tulsa. You can find some native palms growing in the far southeast Oklahoma counties.

Rain chances come in after midnight tonight. Like mentioned already, best shot for anything decent is eastern OK. Small clipper type system comes through Sunday and with cold air already in place, potential for some snow depending on exact track. At this time, it does not appear significant, but will watch it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020121012/rgem_asnow_scus_84.png

as always thank you

Models mostly seem to be coming into agreement that we'll be getting an advisory-level snowfall, centered around the 6 a.m. - noon period on Sunday. It is an Oklahoma winter weather event, so of course there's going to be some bust potential, but it seems to be a reasonably straightforward forecast compared to most of our events given that precipitation type won't be in question, as temperature profiles definitely support a quick changeover from rain to snow (no ice potential with this system, thankfully). The main question at this point seems to concern where the heaviest banding ends up occurring, which will probably take another few model runs to resolve.

Forecast models coming in hot since last night with a near perfect track for a wet snowfall across the main body of OK. Emphasis on corridor just north of I-40.

Exact amounts will depend on speed of the low and the quickness of the rain-snow transition, but most signs point toward a solid shot at somewhere getting a swath of 3-6" of heavy wet snow.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121112/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

NAM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020121112/namconus_asnow_scus_20.png

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121112/gfs_asnow_scus_16.png

NWS has issued Winter Storm Watch for NW quadrant of OK and Winter Weather Advisory for the surrounded areas.

This map is a real-time feed from Mesonet and will update as advisories are changed.
https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif

HRRR 18Z will be in in a few hours and will likely paint a good idea for amounts. Exact location of the heavy snowbands is impossible to predict. The best guess is we will have 1-2 heavy bands setup from SW to NE as the low moves across the state. So depending how the bands morph/pulse throughout the day, some areas could see locally higher totals if under heavier bands for extended periods.

The general outlook for OKC looks like 2-4 inches.

Interesting to see the impact of the higher elevations in the Ozarks. 2-4” for areas lower than 1500 ft and 4-6” for areas over 1500 ft in NW Arkansas/far NE Oklahoma.

When is it supposed to start snowing?

Latest runs indicate heavier snow over a larger area. Winter storm warnings have been extended a row of counties further east.

This is likely a good indication of snow amounts according to the short range models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121300/hrrr_asnow_scus_26.png

Winter Storm Warning has been expanded again further S and E, including OKC through Tulsa to encompass all points NW of that.

This is one of the best tracks for a heavy OK snowfall that I have seen in over a decade.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121309/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

Just now at my house:


hhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMG_-j-LyAM

Lucky you! Wish we had some down here in Duncan.

Solid 5 inches up here by Penn and 164th. Now to enjoy a day of football, food and relaxation guilt free. Drive safe folks!

This is a good day to drink some nice spiced eggnog.

This is a good day to drink some nice spiced eggnog.

No joke. THIS is the kind of winter weather event I can get behind. Make some chili, watch some football or binge a tv show, stay off the road, all while keeping power in our house and not losing tree limbs. Plus I don’t have to work.

^^^^

Actually provides a very gradual, soaking moisture which is badly needed.

One of my huge pet peeves...

Why on earth do we plow roads, sidewalks and parking lots with this type of snow??

If they would have just left it alone, it would all be melted but now there will be piles that gradually thaw and then freeze, then thaw... And what would have been gone in a day will now stick around and make a mess for a week.

^^^^

One of my huge pet peeves...

Why on earth do we plow roads, sidewalks and parking lots with this type of snow??

If they would have just left it alone, it would all be melted but now there will be piles that gradually thaw and then freeze, then thaw... And what would have been gone in a day will now stick around and make a mess for a week.

Because lots of people have to get out every day. For work. Snow routes for emergency’s. Ect.

Today's snow was never blocking anyone from getting out or going to work or impeding emergency vehicles.

Today's snow was never blocking anyone from getting out or going to work or impeding emergency vehicles.

Even with the plowing. There were a bunch of wrecks in Edmond and on I44 today.

Better to plow a little too often than not enough.

FYI to everyone who has to drive later tonight or tomorrow morning, be very careful of black ice. Roads are just wet right now but it's going to drop well into the teens overnight so everything is going to refreeze.

FYI to everyone who has to drive later tonight or tomorrow morning, be very careful of black ice. Roads are just wet right now but it's going to drop well into the teens overnight so everything is going to refreeze.

Thank you for letting me know, I have to go to work tomorrow unless they call me asking me not to come in

The head of Stillwater Emergency Management Agency gave a Facebook Live view of how the snow was like in Stillwater Sunday morning from W. 6th to Downtown here: https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/1818547061628754

Focusing attention to Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Very similar track for another upper level low across the state. However, there will be less moisture to work with across the region so QPF is forecast to be lower. This storm will move on later to likely become a major winter storm event for the NE parts of the country.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121412/hrrr_asnow_scus_48.png

Here is a great example of what I was talking about with unneeded plowing.

Photo is from this morning at the Red Solo Pup construction site...

In the foreground, nothing was plowed on the street or parking lot and both are now completely clear and bone dry, as they were by yesterday afternoon.

In the middle right, the Cabela's lot was plowed and you can see the remaining piles that melted and then created ice. If they would have done nothing, it would have been far better. Will probably have melt/freeze for days now:

HTTP://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/redsolopup121420a.jpg

Another thing is why on earth do we have not have regulators that shut down irrigation systems when it gets below freezing? I went for a late night drive last night to see OKC blanketed with snow and I couldn’t believe how many sprinkler systems were on and it was 23(f) degrees out.

I also agree about the unnecessary plowing. Unless it really accumulated and the ground temperature is cold, they’d be much better off leaving it. I didn’t plow my driveway and it completely melted yesterday but many of my neighbors brought out the torches and snow machines I see around Lake Tahoe LOL.

What time is it suppose to snow again tomorrow?

What time is it suppose to snow again tomorrow?
Mid morning for the metro

Mid morning for the metro

Thank you

Winter Weather Advisories have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for basically all of NW And WC OK, coming right up to the edge of western OKC.

Some forecast models are once again going more bullish on heavier snow just outside of 12 hours before the event.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020121500/rgem_asnow_scus_27.png

My boss told me to stay home and I am getting paid for it so that is a nice surprise

Here is this mornings' short-range model snowfall predictions.

HRRR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121513/hrrr_asnow_scus_10.png


NAM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020121512/nam3km_asnow_scus_18.png


GEM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020121506/rgem_asnow_scus_23.png


GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121506/gfs_asnow_scus_5.png


CAN
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020121500/gem_asnow_scus_6.png

Snow starting to fall here near NW 23rd & Portland.

Snowing near MacArthur & Memorial