Snowing near MacArthur & Memorial
Snow fall is heavy here just south of Piedmont.

Come on CAN and GEM models ����

Snow is not sticking to the ground which is a good thing

Per the current radar trends, I would say the heaviest snowbanding looks to be setting up along a general zone from SE of Woodward and arcing back in toward the W Edmond area.

Snow is not sticking to the ground which is a good thingA very good thing

A very good thing

Well, that did not last long, ugh!

Stay safe everyone!

These are the type of snowstorms I prefer, where it's warm enough to keep the streets and sidewalks wet, but snow can coat the yards and still be beautiful. Temp is right around even freezing 32 here at 3:30pm. Still some tree limbs left from the late October ice storm.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snowdec15.jpg

These are the type of snowstorms I prefer, where it's warm enough to keep the streets and sidewalks wet, but snow can coat the yards and still be beautiful. Temp is right around even freezing 32. Still some tree limbs left from the late October ice storm.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snowdec15.jpg

This is how it started in OKC this morning, but the roads quickly became covered as the snow got heavier.

I love this weather.

I love this weather.

I hate this weather, I am ready for Spring

I hate this weather, I am ready for Spring
I'm with you. Tomorrow is going to be a long hard day starting at around midnight.

I'm with you. Tomorrow is going to be a long hard day starting at around midnight.

Rep!

I love the snow. Beautiful!

This ended up being a very pretty snow that didn't stick too much to all the pavement at work so no long hours. It can do this every so often and I'm good.

According to Mike Morgan, KFOR's chief meteorologist, for the 1st time in recorded history, since 1891, OKC has had separate winter storms with 3"+ total snowfall within 72 hours.

According to Mike Morgan, KFOR's chief meteorologist, for the 1st time in recorded history, since 1891, OKC has had separate winter storms with 3"+ total snowfall within 72 hours.

Wow, that's even longer than BC Clark's Anniversary Sale! :-)

According to Mike Morgan, KFOR's chief meteorologist, for the 1st time in recorded history, since 1891, OKC has had separate winter storms with 3"+ total snowfall within 72 hours.

I'd have bet the farm that we had at least that in 1978. We had wave after wave of intense snow so bad we had at least a standing (not drifted) foot of snow in our back yard, and missed so much school we had to make it up on a Saturday. I remember Gary England saying he'd never seen a winter setup like that. The snow was so blanketing it actually made your eyes hurt to look anywhere on the horizon, because all you could see was incredibly intense *white* everywhere. I'd sure like to see the particulars on snowfall for that storm.

I'd have bet the farm that we had at least that in 1978. We had wave after wave of intense snow so bad we had at least a standing (not drifted) foot of snow in our back yard, and missed so much school we had to make it up on a Saturday. I remember Gary England saying he'd never seen a winter setup like that. The snow was so blanketing it actually made your eyes hurt to look anywhere on the horizon, because all you could see was incredibly intense *white* everywhere. I'd sure like to see the particulars on snowfall for that storm.

I'll never forget that very unusual winter of persistent snow. Seems like it first started on New Year's Eve and then it wouldn't warm up in time to melt much for the next snow storm that seemed to happen at least once or twice every week. The sun didn't shine much. Day after day of cloudy weather. Snow stuck around and never got melted off until it was nearly March 1. Glad those winters are quite rare.

I'd have bet the farm that we had at least that in 1978. We had wave after wave of intense snow so bad we had at least a standing (not drifted) foot of snow in our back yard, and missed so much school we had to make it up on a Saturday. I remember Gary England saying he'd never seen a winter setup like that. The snow was so blanketing it actually made your eyes hurt to look anywhere on the horizon, because all you could see was incredibly intense *white* everywhere. I'd sure like to see the particulars on snowfall for that storm.

I recall that as well. At the time I had a construction company. Most of our work was outdoors. It took a few weeks to finally be able to pour concrete, etc. Also during that time, it seems I recall the wind chill temp getting down to -15 degrees or so. Brutal, brutal winter.

I'd have bet the farm that we had at least that in 1978. We had wave after wave of intense snow so bad we had at least a standing (not drifted) foot of snow in our back yard, and missed so much school we had to make it up on a Saturday. I remember Gary England saying he'd never seen a winter setup like that. The snow was so blanketing it actually made your eyes hurt to look anywhere on the horizon, because all you could see was incredibly intense *white* everywhere. I'd sure like to see the particulars on snowfall for that storm.

As I recall, there were 3 or 4 major (6-inch plus) snowstorms spaced 4-5 days apart, with intense cold between them. And yes, we had snow on the ground for weeks afterward.

Mild southerly winds continue to bring us great weather until Thursday when cold front comes through bringing along colder, north winds.

Christmas day should see a solid rebound with temperatures in the 50s.

Next storm chances look to be brewing around the 29th.

The cold front is here. Sorry, just noticed my last post said Thursday and not Wednesday.

High fire danger today and Thursday with strong north winds!

Yes it's here! I was working outside and had to stop... Too cold and blustery.

I have over 30 trees in my backyard and most were substantially blown apart by the ice storm. I got a lot done after the snow cleared but still have a ton to do, and I'm going to use the holidays to bear down and see if I can power through most of what remains.

Looks like we have another storm coming next week.

Yes it's here! I was working outside and had to stop... Too cold and blustery.

I have over 30 trees in my backyard and most were substantially blown apart by the ice storm. I got a lot done after the snow cleared but still have a ton to do, and I'm going to use the holidays to bear down and see if I can power through most of what remains.

Looks like we have another storm coming next week.Somethings here because things are blowing down the street that should stay put.
As for next week I don't get the forecasts. GFS is about the only model that goes out that far and it shows nothing happening as far as it goes which is the 2nd. I'm glad my job has nothing to do with forecasting weather.

Still lots of disagreement among the models, but it's looking more and more likely with each passing run that we're going to be getting some sort of big storm next Tuesday/Wednesday. Precipitation type is still very uncertain.

Models have been trending warmer for the last day, it now appears that most of the wintry precipitation should stay to the NW of the Metro with the next system. Most of the precipitation looks to fall on Tuesday, and there looks to be good moisture return so this should hopefully do a lot to stave off the drought, with widespread 0.5-1.0" amounts currently expected across much of the state. Next question, assuming the warmer trend continues, is whether we can manage to get any stronger storms with this as it is looking to be a fairly dynamic system. TBD on that for now.

Does not look like there will be a severe weather threat with the Tuesday system, though there should be enough instability for some rumbles of thunder. Precipitation type still looks to be predominantly rain, maybe a small amount of snow mixing in at the end if precipitation hangs around long enough on Wednesday when a colder airmass will start moving in. Still looks like a good rainmaker as well with 0.5"+ amounts expected.

^

Thank you, as always.

I'm doing my best to use the nice weather to knock out most my massive backyard cleanup project. With any luck, I'll be largely finished before that next storm hits.

^
I used today to finish up the piles in the front yard to be ready for the city to do their thing and a tree service to remove the trunk and stump Monday. Should all be done but waiting on the city before the system gets here. At least tree wise I won't ever have to worry about ice again.

Anyone have any experience burning a trunk? I’m thinking of trying that out. Obviously there are YouTube tutorials and what not but I wanted to know if anyone here had firsthand experience with it.

Forecast models are taking crazy pills for this week. Will wait for some more runs tonight and tomorrow before taking any guesses on a large storm system that will impact the entire country this week.

Forecast models are taking crazy pills for this week. Will wait for some more runs tonight and tomorrow before taking any guesses on a large storm system that will impact the entire country this week.

Are they trending colder? Hoping for all rain and no ice!

Tuesday/Wednesday system is still going to be almost all rain (maybe a little snow at the very end, no accumulations), but most of today's model runs have trended west with a secondary low pressure system, which could potentially give the OKC Metro some wintry precipitation on Thursday/Friday as the first system will bring a colder airmass into the area.

As Anonymous said, models have been all over the place with this secondary system, so I would fully expect more changes over the next couple of days. Going to be an active week, but should be a nice warming trend and drier/sunnier weather starting next weekend.

^^ What he said. This is going to be a big impact storm for large part of country. At this time, I expect impacts in OK to be ice, snow, and flooding.

I want to emphasize this forecast complexity is high and will change. This event has high bust potential in the winter impact categories. We will not only have extreme importance placed on the track of the low, but the temperatures during the arrival of the low will be right around the freezing mark for much of OK.


OKC Timeline
Tonight into Tuesday: Slight rain chances with moisture riding up over the area, fog is also possible tonight into tomorrow.

Tuesday into Wednesday: High rain/storm chances with rain coming in from the NW. Followed by colder air and strong N winds.

Wednesday: A quiet and cold period while the front is pushed to our SE, but during the day - a very deep low will develop across SW TX and bring in GOM levels of moisture.

Thursday & Thursday night: Potential winter storm or bust scenario with the above mentioned low tracking somewhere near the OK/AR border. The further W of a track means more winter weather potential, and the opposite for an E track. There will likely be a sharp gradient of winter precipitation accumulations as the corridor is expected to be narrow. Like I mentioned earlier, the temperatures as the low comes up from TX will be crucial as they will begin rising from the 20s into the low 30s. There is a possibility of the surface temperatures getting above freezing to produce only rain and no winter precipitation at all.

During the winterstorm questionmark, SE OK will likely be experiencing flooding conditions with rainfall in excess of 6 inches across the event timeframe.


Here are snapshots of the latest data from Monday afternoon. This is the storm setup from the various models. Note the difference in types of precipitation (temperatures).



GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020122818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_14.png



NAM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020122818/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png



GEM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020122818/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_84.png



CAN:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020122812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_16.png

Yes, it appears the upcoming weather situation is difficult to gauge. So it's interesting how two chief TV weathermen from Oklahoma City have different outlooks of how the precipitation will fall and by how much by Friday. The end times are not the same, but probably don't make much difference.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/channel4rain.jpg

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/channel9rain.jpg

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/channel4snow.jpg

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/channel9snow.jpg

Stillwater is getting 3" of both rain and snow!

Short-term models are consistently showing a fairly robust line of storms moving slowly through the Metro between about 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. tonight. We already have pretty good moisture return, and the cold front surging south this evening should provide plenty of forcing, so this general solution makes sense to me. Expect frequent lightning, localized 1”+ rainfall totals, and maybe some small hail (below severe limits).

Damn I hope not!
Just playing with GFS and it shows a storm on Jan 10 followed by another on the 14th. 30 inches total of snow between now and the 14th. Please no.
Of course its too far out to be accurate. I hope.

This is the first look at NAM's hi-def reflectivity forecast of the storm. A beautiful comma shape with heavy precipitation across all of the wet side.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020122918/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_60.png

Below images show the cold front sinking southeast and the line of storms that will eventually impact the area later this evening developing behind the front. Nothing has really changed in terms of expectations with this line since my post earlier today. Tomorrow, things are looking better for some snow to mix in before the precipitation ends. Minor accumulations will be possible on grassy surfaces, but there shouldn't be any travel impacts. Don't really feel like opening the Thursday/Friday can of worms yet lol, but it does appear that the chances of an impactful winter weather event are increasing, particularly for the western sections of the Metro. Still a lot of uncertainty, though. Wouldn't be surprised to see one final shot of light snow early Saturday before the upper level low finally moves out of the area. Saturday Afternoon through next Wednesday looks to be a dry period with near normal temperatures, before a more active pattern returns towards the end of next week.

16638

16639

This storm’s evolution has continued to slow since earlier forecasts. Here in C OK we are just now about to see the coldfront after 10pm. This will bring rain and some rumbles of thunder.

Most models have gone more in favor of early morning into lunchtime snow. Especially in a narrow band somewhere along or just north of the i44 corridor. Then snow will end early afternoon and all things will go quiet.

As for the track of the main low on Thursday, most models continue to trend the track westward. As a result the highest chances for winter precipitation are dividing the state somewhere along or just west of i35.

Will post some graphics in the morning. But the general trend is potential blizzard in W OK, ice storm just E of that, and a mixed bag to cold rain east of that. Gradients will be very harsh with this storm.

I am a little confused after watching the news and reading this thread, which i find (this thread) to be very helpful btw.

I guess i am trying to plan ahead for potential power outages. 13 days of no power in Oct/Nov was awful. The news channels do not seem to be hyping the ice and freezing rain potential up just yet, but obviously that could change in a moments notice. They do tend to add fuel to fire and hype to the hysteria. :rolleyes:

Waiting for some more model data to come in, but currently the storm continues to slow down from original forecast, track further SE, and the upper level low ejection pattern is now expected to be more tightly wound.

For example, the current snowband that is in the area SE of I-44, was actually forecast to be to the NW of I-44. This pattern may extrapolate across the entire forecast area and timeline.

^ Thank you. Will continue to keep an eye out here.

Snow in Seminole (from a construction cam taken about 10:30AM):

HTTP://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/seminole123020a.jpg

Most models have slowed the storm down, which is altering the evolution of the low's precipitation, the track of the low, and the temperatures.

I will focus on our short-range hi-def models first. HRRR, and NAM. Other broad model data will be in later this evening.


Latest HRRR shows slower storm and tighter low evolution. Resulting in dramatic shift eastward of main body of precipitation and the cold air. This latest forecast would mean W and NW OK would need to have Winter Storm Watches shaved away and adding Winter Storm Warnings or Blizzard advisories for a large area from SW to C to N OK.

Here is two snapshots of HRRR showing the storm forecast over main part of OK. The first one is data from this morning that I saved, the next one is data from this afternoon. The second image is showing the storm arriving 3 hours later than the first image.

Data from Wed AM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020123012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_42.png


Data from Wed PM:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020123018/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_39.png






Next up we have the NAM. NAM has been consistently move the storm track west until this morning when it began shifting back east a bit. It has since reverted back to the westerly track, but condensed the low and slowed the storm down. Current advisory levels are consistent with NAM forecast. This would keep most of the I-35 corridor in a cold rain scenario (temperatures right around 32-33). this would also track the heaviest swath of winter precipitation across W OK where they would have solid icing followed up by a quick dumping of blowing wet snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020123018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_39.png

this will be a crazy 48 hours to watch

this will be a crazy 48 hours to watch
Yeah! At least it's all Friday and we're off. Sunday is supposed to be sunny so I won't have any work problems by Monday. This one I can just sit back and watch.

I was hoping we would dodge the ice / freezing rain bullet and just deal with snow this time around. From the looks of things...i really have no idea.

seems like ice chances are down??

The gradient between different precipitation types is going to be so tight, expecting this to be a nowcast situation to see where the heaviest swaths of snow and ice end up occurring.

Like SEMI said, exact location and amounts is basically impossible for this storm. Here are some models, I would cut all these ridiculous "snow" amounts down to about a third of what they say, given a lot of this will be rain, freezing rain, and sleet.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020123100/hrrr_asnow_scus_48.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020123100/nam3km_asnow_scus_49.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2020123100/icon_asnow_scus_15.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020123100/rgem_asnow_scus_47.png

Temps at OKC holding right now at 30F. This is going to be extremely close when the precipitation gets here. I am out of town so my updates will be fewer. I would guess the initial type falling OKC to be rain then mixing in with freezing rain and sleet pretty quickly given the wet-bulb temperatures.

Then a quick burst of heavy snow early AM.

Radar nowcast is the only way to know who gets what and how much.

Safe travels, and thanks for your updates. Always appreciate your posts.

Agreed, thanks for the updates and safe travels.

OKC above freezing as rain has arrived. Expect quick turnover to freezing rain and some sleet with wet-bulb being about 30-31.

Current track of storm puts heaviest precip across C OK.

OKC has been upgraded to Winter Storm Warning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020123121/hrrr_asnow_scus_18.png

Precip is currently falling as rain at my apartment a few miles east of Downtown Yukon. Mesonet observations currently show 32-33 degree surface temperatures across the Metro. As Anonymous mentioned, expect the precipitation to change over to freezing rain fairly soon given sub-freezing wet bulb temperatures across the Metro. Temperatures will be marginal but winds will be fairly gusty so I'd still expect up to a quarter-inch of ice accretion on trees and power lines. Current short-range model trends show best potential for icing pretty much right along a Newcastle to OKC to Edmond line. To the west, more precipitation should fall as sleet and snow, and to the east, more precipitation should fall as rain. Still, I would expect pretty much everyone in the Metro to see every precipitation type between now and noon tomorrow, and road conditions should be hazardous across the entire area by late this evening.

A glaze of ice is now starting to accrete on elevated surfaces here. Hoping for a changeover to sleet or snow sooner rather than later.

Bad winter winter going on or slated to from the Mexican border at southwest Texas northeast to Canada.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/winterstorms2021.JPG