Quiet and beautiful fall weather continues. We are still drying out and October is showing little to no relief in the moisture department.

Will focus attention this coming week on tropical development in the GOM.

Dry air is fanning out across the majority of the country ahead of tropical system Delta in the GOM. Thus, above normal temperatures in the 80s will persist through the weekend, little to no clouds in sight. Lows in the 50s.

Still no solid rain chances appearing in the forecast, maybe something around the 13-14th.

I'm finding out how spoiled I am. My car A/C is out and they're waiting on parts. Above 80 It's uncomfortable, around 90 it's miserable. Probably 10 of my first 12 cars didn't have A/C and I was just fine.

Tomorrow: Wednesday might be the last "hot" day for a while. Temperatures in OKC will be near 90 ahead of a front that will come across the state early Thursday morning. Thursday looks cool and windy.

Weekend: Temperatures into the weekend will rebound into the 70s before another front Sunday night into Monday. Dropping temperatures even further.

Moisture: Still no solid rain chances showing up, next shot at rain looks like the system coming through Sunday-Monday. Drought continues to build back in from the west. Nowhere in the state has had more than a tenth of an inch of rain in three weeks. At this rate, winter fire season will be pretty terrible.

^

Thank you, as always.

Slight chance of a rain shower or two anytime over the next few evenings. The best chances will be across N and NE parts of the state. Nothing significant from the looks of it. The best shot looks like Thursday evening accompanying another cold front that will knock high temperatures from the 80s back down into the 50s for the weekend.

Looking ahead, things begin getting interesting Monday into Tuesday with a strong storm coming out of the SW part of the country. The track looks to be pretty classic for a major southern plains winter storm, however it looks like it temperatures will not be cold enough for a significant part of the state. Far NW OK will have the best shot at winter precipitation, while everyone else could get a nice cold rain.

Will keep monitoring this as it approaches, but it looks like it could be a nice relief from the drought.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020102006/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

thank you

GFS toying around with ice accumulations in a narrow band through OK, this will be interesting to watch. It could be a "fine line" between cold rain, ice and snow.

Models continue to hint at colder air further south. However, ground temperatures will be high, so elevated surfaces will be what to keep an eye on.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020102100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_23.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020102106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_22.png

I can't believe this is a real output for Tuesday. GFS is wildly bullish on cold air, plus a less broken upper level low.

We are approaching window for NAM to get involved so we can see more solutions. But if the GFS model snapshot below came true, we would have some ice and then 4-7 inches of snow across a solid portion of I-44 corridor.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020102206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_22.png

OKC following up its first measurable April snowfall in 31 years with its first measurable October snowfall in 27 years would be something.

GFS has calmed down some and is breaking the storm up a little more so it would eject into the plains in pieces. Right now looks like the best shot for frozen precipitation in C OK would be Monday evening into Tuesday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020102406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_11.png

Rainfall chances through Thursday, if this pans out this is great news for holding off the drought entering the drier winter months

https://scontent.fapa1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/122456770_3663699313693368_915133714036660220_n.jp g?_nc_cat=102&ccb=2&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=wTCM1ZENYPAAX_PN-I1&_nc_ht=scontent.fapa1-2.fna&oh=b963094511b5ccdcd76cacb21d797736&oe=5FBB67DD

WINTER STORM WATCH Out includes OKC Metro area16545

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Periods of Freezing Rain and Sleet Likely Late Tonight Through
Early Wednesday...

Logan-Payne-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Cotton-Hardeman-Foard-
Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-
Including the cities of Guthrie, Stillwater, Anadarko, Hinton,
Yukon, Concho, El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud,
Prague, Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell,
Newcastle, Blanchard, Norman, Moore, Hobart, Snyder, Altus,
Frederick, Lawton, Walters, Temple, Quanah, Crowell, Vernon,
Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, Munday, Knox City, Seymour,
Archer City, Holliday, Lakeside City, and Scotland
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
one tenth to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southwest Oklahoma and
northern Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Having a winter warning this early is bullcrap, how about waiting until December?

Monday: OKC will be right on the cusp of the freezing line. W sides highest chance of elevated ice accumulation.

Tuesday: probably a dry period somewhere Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then another wave of precipitation comes in Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will likely be the highest chance of ice accumulation.

Wednesday: Most of state should rise above freezing except for areas in far W OK.


There is a chance that places that get any heavier frozen precipitation that accumulates, will actually cool the air temperatures near the surface and may lead to more freezing rain.


Monday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020102518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_18.png


Tuesday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020102518/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png


Wednesday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020102518/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_49.png

I will believe those projected 3 to 4" plus rain amounts when I see them.

Emily Sutton discusses the storm for 19 minutes:
https://www.facebook.com/emilyrsutton/videos/827655527972501

Having a winter warning this early is bullcrap, how about waiting until December?

Yeah, like for a white Christmas, but not one of those rare blizzards, please.

Weather is not cold enough to become ice which is good

Weather is not cold enough to become ice which is good

On an elevated surface, it's going to be cold enough to ice.

6:21 am at my house near 9th & Bryant in Edmond and my weather station says the dewpoint is 31.8F and the temp is 32.7F .

Ice storm warning has been issued for I-44 corridor with emphasis just north of it. Tulsa looks like it will be just east of the main action and be mostly cold rain.


Temperatures running a few degrees colder than forecasted originally so far. Thus heavier icing is being pulled a little further south/east this morning. Roads should be mostly okay other than bridges.

The main concern will be all elevated surfaces, including trees with majority of foilage still attached. Power interruptions will be common by Tuesday afternoon.

Short-range models end the heavier precipitation later this evening and keep showers and drizzle going until heavier round of winter precipitation moving in by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be key heading through Tues night into Wed as warming is expected.

Ice storm warning has been issued for I-44 corridor with emphasis just north of it. Tulsa looks like it will be just east of the main action and be mostly cold rain.


Temperatures running a few degrees colder than forecasted originally so far. Thus heavier icing is being pulled a little further south/east this morning. Roads should be mostly okay other than bridges.

The main concern will be all elevated surfaces, including trees with majority of foilage still attached. Power interruptions will be common by Tuesday afternoon.

Short-range models end the heavier precipitation later this evening and keep showers and drizzle going until heavier round of winter precipitation moving in by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be key heading through Tues night into Wed as warming is expected.

lots and lots of ICE coming down at Tinker

On an elevated surface, it's going to be cold enough to ice.

6:21 am at my house near 9th & Bryant in Edmond and my weather station says the dewpoint is 31.8F and the temp is 32.7F .

Similar to Stillwater. 32.5 with freezing rain a little before noon. Ice trying to accumulate on roofs. Weather station not freezing up, so far. Things started here at 3:30 am with thunder and lightning.

http://okie.world/photos/icestormoct26.JPG

I spoke too soon

Freezing line is way overextended from forecast. Will likely see Ice Storm Warning expanded. Central OK is particularly deep in the freezing temperature area and everything falling from the sky will accumulate across the entire metro.

Pre heat homes and charge all batteries now before you lose power here in OKC. Power crews will be working non stop from the looks of this.

Emily Sutton with updated forecast shows western part of Oklahoma City metro getting .5 to 1 inch of ice, which would be considered catastrophic.

Considering the time of the year with foilage still intact. Anything at .25” will cause extreme damage to trees and consequently powerlines.

If the OKC metro ends up with anything close to an inch, this will likely be the most costly ice storm in state history.

That's a shame. A lot of people complain when a "Nothingburger" occurs because temps come in 1 or 2 degrees above from forecast well now were seeing the opposite of that.

Freezing rain this early in the year is particularly bad because the trees still have their leaves.

I remember about 4 years ago we had a bad freezing rain storm before Thanksgiving and you couldn't even drive through Heritage Hills or Mesta Park because there were so many downed limbs. The city had to set special cleanup days just to pick up the debris all over town.

Branches are snapping over here and power is already out

Winter Weather Advisory expanded an additional row of counties to the SE, now including Tulsa. At this time, Ice Storm Warning counties remain unchanged.

There is still a solid stream of sleet and freezing rain training along I-44. Short range models show a break in the precipitation heading into tonight, so hopefully that happens.

Driving around south OKC, tree branches are covered with ice and sagging *everywhere*, notably in the areas near and around Earlywine Park (SW 119th and May). My power has glitched several times, but remains on. Power just a couple miles east is out. My weather station says its 33 degrees, but man, we lose that extra degree or two, and this going to be an unqualified mess. The potential for extensive tree damage around town is enormous.

So Wednesday's okc forecast is high of 44 with rain. So any ice on trees should mostly melt by Wednesday evening.

Yes, forecast is for OKC to go above freezing by Tuesday night and begin the melting process. Rain will become heavier as the low is ejected across the region. Heavy rainfall should actually help to warm the surface temperatures.

The problem is the forecasted light drizzle and waves of freezing rain late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Especially across areas where ice has accumulated on elevated surfaces. The ice will act like icecubes do inside a cooler or freezer and will actually cool the air at the surface.

One interesting aspect is the colder air coming in aloft may help to mix more sleet or snow into the precipitation hours which will help the tree scenario, but worsen the travel.

Basically just like 90% of winterstorms for OKC, every fahrenheit matters.

Round 1 seems to be exiting the area.

Lots of downed tree limbs everywhere and even more trees hanging low in roadways.

Lots of downed tree limbs everywhere and even more trees hanging low in roadways.

We've been without power for 3-4 hrs in Crown Heights, and it's only getting worse. OG&E and Asplundh have their work cut out for them.

No power outages here in Norman yet but I am sure we will get there tonight and tomorrow. Stay warm and safe everyone.

I enjoy a good snowstorm but I hate the ice. So destructive and so dangerous.

In Stillwater, the freezing rain let up fairly soon after temp went below freezing. So ice didn't accumulate too much on the trees. Wave 2 forecast is for .3" ice in Stillwater. That much is worrisome. Stillwater hasn't had a bad ice storm since around 2003. It's amazing how the town dodged at least two of them since then when Perry and my boss's rural home was encased from one of them and Cushing-Perkins got the other one. Rural co-worker didn't have power for over a week.

Neighbor's tree doesn't look too bad after wave 1.

http://okie.world/photos/neighborstree.jpg

Lots of downed tree limbs everywhere and even more trees hanging low in roadways.
I have a tree that I've been thinking about removing for a couple years but just couldn't bring myself to cut down a perfectly healthy tree. From the looks of how it's drooping it might make my decision much easier.

I went out earlier and was beating on my trees with a big stick. Knocked off a lot of the ice. I probably looked like a crazy man lol!

I hate ice though. It’s so destructive to even the heartiest of trees. :(

I'm really worried about Tuesday Morning with this ice storm. This morning (monday) we were around 30-31 and started with very warm ground temps. Now we have some ice on the ground temps are running 28-30. Tuesday morning might be 100 times worse than this morning. The roads were ok and still are for the most part but tomorrow might be really ugly. Rain with temps around 29 and a cold ground is way different than rain at 31 with a warm ground.

00Z HRRR coming in with a forecast of over 20 hours of freezing rain, drizzle, and sleet across a localized area from OKC and down to the SW towards Lawton.

Canadian, Caddo, and Grady counties look like it could be awful. This bleeds into Oklahoma county as well. Every degree matters.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020102700/hrrr_apcpn_scus_36.png

Freezing rain this early in the year is particularly bad because the trees still have their leaves.

I remember about 4 years ago we had a bad freezing rain storm before Thanksgiving and you couldn't even drive through Heritage Hills or Mesta Park because there were so many downed limbs. The city had to set special cleanup days just to pick up the debris all over town.

Thanksgiving 2015. I had a pile of branches in my front yard 5 feet high by 15 feet long for over a month Before the city was able to pick em up.

The 2015 Thanksgiving ice storm made that decision for us on a couple of trees in our front yard, and now we have a yard again.

I am off tomorrow thanks to the storm so it is nice to have a day off

I'm at home today and I have already heard several good pops from the trees outside. This is so sad.... :(

What I mentioned yesterday is ocurring with rainfall happening so rapidly that it is actually warming the surface layer. This should bring the region above freezing quicker and thus stop the accumulations.

What I mentioned yesterday is ocurring with rainfall happening so rapidly that it is actually warming the surface layer. This should bring the region above freezing quicker and thus stop the accumulations.

This is wonderful news.

Hope it warms faster than the afternoon.

Sitting here listening to my huge backyard pecan tree splinter.

It's already lost 3 big limbs.

Sitting here listening to my huge backyard pecan tree splinter.

It's already lost 3 big limbs.

I've lost half my tree in the front yard. It suffered damage from a wind storm last year. It's unfortunate because it's the oldest tree in the neighborhood, 15 years old now.

We may be above freezing here an a couple of hours.

The sound of breaking limbs is constant. I would just like to reiterate that I HATE ice storms.

The sound of breaking limbs is constant. I would just like to reiterate that I HATE ice storms.
I just came back in from cutting off some limbs from the tree that were threatening the gutters and a couple bushes. While outside I heard a crash of limbs falling up and down the street every few seconds. This is going to be a huge mess.

Precipitation is becoming more scarce. Looks like the damage is mostly done. We are very lucky that we did not get a constant stream of precipitation overnight.

With the combination of warm air riding up ahead of the low and UV radiation through the clouds, we should see some melting beginning by lunchtime. Giving the trees, that haven’t fallen or broken, some weight relief.

We will have heavy rainfall Wednesday morning and afternoon.

My office says they are opening at 11am, um, what?

Out of touch

My office says they are opening at 11am, um, what?

Out of touch


How so? The roads are fine

Well there’s a big tree blocking my street right now so I’m not going anywhere for a while.

Power went out in my house, that is not how I wanted to spend my day off