Our amazing temperatures continue this week until things begin warming up again over the weekend.

There is a solid chance of rain and storms late tonight across the area as a small cluster of storms is expected to ride out from the NW to the SE. Nothing severe is expected.

Weekend looks hot and sunny, temps near 95F.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020080412/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_22.png

Large swath of decaying storms from the NW looking like it will reach OKC late tonight if it can keep up steam. Nothing too crazy expected. Perhaps some gusty winds.

SVR warning is out for OKC. Mainly for the initial gust front.

Temps drop back into the 80s next week. Starting with a small chance of rain and storms Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep eye on GOM late next week.

All of Oklahoma, except the western part free of drought:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_ok_trd.png

Much of the western half of the U. S. is still under drought as this animated image shows. So don't be surprised if there are more fires out of control there.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/gif/6_week.gif

^ Colorado is burning like crazy, there are several large fires raging in the mountains here. Air quality in Denver has been awful for the last couple of weeks because of this. The one and three month outlooks released today don't show any relief in the forecast either, as it looks to be a continued pattern of above-normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the Southwest. Drought could easily expand back into the OKC area if that ends up coming to fruition.

Things will remain quiet this week while we return back to normal hot summer days. Our hottest days (close to 100F) will be toward the weekend ahead of a potentially major hurricane coming through the GOM and likely making landfall somewhere along TX coast Thursday or Friday.

Looking like Laura will landfall somewhere near TX/LA border. Luckily the storm is compact, but still have a very powerful initial punch.

OK impacts look minimal, perhaps the extreme E/SE counties will get rain Thursday afternoon. OKC's next shot at rain looks like a small chance Sunday with a brief cool-down beginning of next week.

Looking further out, it looks like our first significant cool front will be making an appearance somewhere around the weekend of September 5th.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020082612/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_18.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020082612/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_35.png

Looks like the tropical moisture is already pushing some rain and embedded storms into eastern OK

^ yes, outer bands will be flaring up around the eastern half of the state. Could get a lucky storm cell or two here in central OK today and tomorrow afternoons.

^ yes, outer bands will be flaring up around the eastern half of the state. Could get a lucky storm cell or two here in central OK today and tomorrow afternoons.

A pretty good band just moved through Tulsa. A couple others look like they'll be coming in behind it. Far SE OK has seen quite a bit but most of the rain is over Arkansas.

Anyone ever been to the Cossatot River in Arkansas? Some of the best whitewater in this part of the country. They’ve had 4-6” of rain this morning, I bet that river is wild right now..

OKC will likely make a run at the hottest day of 2020 today. OKC has yet to breach 100F in 2020. We could see anything from 100-104F.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020082812/hrrr_T2m_scus_12.png

Yeah, if no clouds form.

OKC will likely make a run at the hottest day of 2020 today. OKC has yet to breach 100F in 2020. We could see anything from 100-104F.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020082812/hrrr_T2m_scus_12.png

That map just LOOKS hot!!

(not to rub it in, but we're in the 70's today in Denver. It's wonderful and finally, no smoke!)

Another hot day Saturday near 100F again. Storm chances increase very late Saturday into Sunday morning. The week ahead still looks like cooler temperatures, and increased storm chances.


Late Saturday night into Sunday:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020082818/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_42.png

OKC will likely make a run at the hottest day of 2020 today. OKC has yet to breach 100F in 2020. We could see anything from 100-104F.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020082812/hrrr_T2m_scus_12.png

Seriously?? I was sure we hit it a few times earlier this summer.

It wasn't terrible summer by any means and if the extended forecast holds up at all, then the "Oklahoma Summer" is over.

Seriously?? I was sure we hit it a few times earlier this summer.

It wasn't terrible summer by any means and if the extended forecast holds up at all, then the "Oklahoma Summer" is over.

Have to disagree - the humidity *was* terrible, maybe not the heat, but a heat index of 10 degrees over the actual temp was happening a lot this summer.

Organized severe weather event is possible later this afternoon into this evening, definitely looks to have more potential than most August events in OKC. Best chances look to be roughly along I-44 and points SE.

Storm development location will determine if OKC gets anything severe. As of about 2pm, the boundary for development is just north of I-44.

Short-term models forecasting the healthiest lifespan of storms to be E of I-44. However, this does not mean OKC couldn't see severe storms if development happens directly over or just W of I-44. The most likely outcome is storms developing overhead, but becoming strongest just E of the I-44 corridor.

Will keep monitoring visible satellite as we head through the afternoon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020083118/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

MD is out. NWS expecting storms to develop within next couple of hours.



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1656.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma
and northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 312034Z - 312200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in
the next 1 to 2 hours. All severe hazards are possible and a watch
will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s along and ahead of a cold front
which extends from southeast Kansas across Oklahoma and into Texas
just south of Childress. This has yielded 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Some elevated convection has persisted in south-central Oklahoma for
most of the morning and early afternoon, but has recently begun to
weaken. Surface obs only show minor influence from this convection,
and westerly mid-level flow should usher in steeper lapse rates
across the region once again. Therefore, do not expect this activity
to have much influence on the convection later this afternoon. SPC
mesoanalysis suggests MLCIN is now eroded along the front. The 18Z
LMN RAOB also showed a mostly eroded CAP. Therefore, expect storms
to form along the boundary in the next 1 to 2 hours. The first
evidence of this has started southeast of Childress. However, flow
is weaker in that area, and thus, expect storm organization to be a
slower/more difficult process.

Farther north, the KTLX VWP shows between 35 and 45 kts of mid-level
flow which should provide ample shear for storm organization,
including the potential for supercells. While storms will initially
be discrete, this is expected to quickly change as numerous storms
form along the front. The best chance for significant hail will be
in the first 1-2 hours after storm organization when storm mode is
more discrete with severe wind becoming the primary severe threat
thereafter.

Additionally, a tornado or two is possible, specifically in southern
and south-central Oklahoma where surface winds are backed. Low-level
flow is not that strong, but there is significant veering in the
lowest 1-km which may support a tornado threat.

..Bentley/Grams.. 08/31/2020

Storms rapidly evolving. Currently large hail is the main threat, storms are showing rotation as they come up. Rotation should subside as more storms develop and crowd the free space around them.

For OKC, need to keep an eye on cells going up from Minco back to Binger. Rush hour and hail would not be ideal.

Monster hail core with that storm over the tri-cities right now. Erratic motion, wouldn't be surprised if it ends up heading ESE into Norman.

I expect a flash flood warning coming to the OKC metro.

Storm intensity in general has come down. And the cell that popped up over downtown has completely died. Mostly should be a flash flooding threat with any training cells as we head into the evening.

Barely got the sidewalk wet near Penn Square.

Hope we get a lot more tonight and tomorrow.


Temp dropped from 94 to 74 in 2 hours.

Looks like you're getting a nice storm there now.