Weather getting hotter this week. Highs in low to mid 90s. Lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Still watching potential for GOM tropical development later this week.

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed in the southern GOM. At this time, a north gulf coast landfall looks likely over the weekend.

Well, it is about to be summer....

Its going to be a long and busy tropical season by the looks of things. Two storms formed before the official start of the tropical weather season. Cristobal formed right at the start.

There are some small indications that we could see some storms develop across the state late Thursday with a boundary coming through. Development is low, but chances of severe are moderate. Damaging wind and hail would be primary threats.

As of now the best shot looks to be WC OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020060312/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_33.png

SPC outlined Slight Risk for C and W OK for tonight. Chances of storms is low, but severity of any that do develop is high.

Best shot is still W OK, but we could have storms at dark here in C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2020060400/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_scus_24.png

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is out for essentially the western half of OK. Does not include OKC proper.

SVR for SW OKC as gust front comes through. Strong wind and briefly heavy rains clipping the city.

Well it looks like it won’t hit Edmond. That sucks we need the rain. :/

Anon, how are the odds that tropical storm in the gulf comes through here?

Landfall is currently expected somewhere between NOL and HOU. The trend is further west. Majority of precipitation will be on the east side, but this will definitely be affecting our weather in some way.

I hope it brings some precip our way.

Its rained a bit on west Edmond but nothing much.

Its rained a bit on west Edmond but nothing much.
Nothing at all in Kickingbird.

Most of the action post-landfall looks like it will be centered around Arkansas, we still may have a random band of shower or storms produced from this sometime Monday-Tuesday. Also cloudcover will come into play with temperatures.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2020060518/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020060518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

I miss those 70 degree days already. Seems like it got hot a lot later this year.

Summertime heat already setting in. This has the feeling of being a very hot and dry summer...

Hot and Dry till September. We need the rain anytime we can get it. Floods are easier to come back from then Droughts. Grew up just north of OKC in the Country, and we hauled hay (little Squares) for a living it was a hard life and the droughts were so devastating.

Summertime heat already setting in. This has the feeling of being a very hot and dry summer...

I sure hope it is hot and dry. This is my favorite weather.

Tropical moisture all staying in AR. We may see a brief chance at some storms/showers late Thursday afternoon. Otherwise no real solid storm chances in the forecast for the next 10+ days.

This week: Highs 90s, lows 60s

Next week: Highs pushing 100+ in western half of state.

Ian Drake will be happy. The state will burn because of this, but he will be rejoicing.

Ian Drake will be happy. The state will burn because of this, but he will be rejoicing.

If it isn't obvious, that dude is a flat out troll. He got me for a minute but after a quick glance at his posting history it became blatantly obvious.

Wind advisory for NW half of the state, with a High Wind Warning for far NW OK. Very high fire danger across the entire state, but especially western OK.

The dust has arrived in OKC. Crazy looking outside right now. I wonder if this is what it was like in the Dust Bowl.

Those dust bowl winds took the paint right off the cars. Like it had been sandblasted. That’s when we lost that good old topsoil from over farming.

What is up with this silly heat dome coming right back in a couple days? Isn't June supposed to be one of the wetter months? Hope this doesn't turn out like the drought that started in 2010.

What is up with this silly heat dome coming right back in a couple days? Isn't June supposed to be one of the wetter months? Hope this doesn't turn out like the drought that started in 2010. Sad to say, but it looks like we are heading into a Severe Drought weather wise. Hope I'm wrong. Once High pressure sets in and Jet stream is farther North, all bets are off for getting moisture unless from the Gulf. Which it seems is always a Pipe Dream.

The drought will build back in from the west over the next two weeks. On the very extreme horizon, there does look to be some signs of pattern shift - which will hopefully pan out and give us some rain. But again, that won't be until almost July and a lot can change before then.

GFS showing potential signs of a stationary front draping across Oklahoma around the 19th which would bring some rain chances.

After an active start the tropics look pretty quiet over the next couple weeks.

Forecast next week doesn't look as hot as it was looking a few days ago. Still mid 90s for highs, but looks like most triple digits will be extreme W/NW OK.

Slight chance of an isolated storm or two this afternoon, mostly confined to E OK.

Better chances (still not great) as we head into the weekend. Then some decent chances of some rain beginning of next week. We are officially in the "we'll take what we can get" phase.

We are officially in the "we'll take what we can get" phase.

Right.... I've gotten to where I don't even swallow my saliva at the farm anymore... It all gets spit around my newly planted berry bushes! ;)

Some good news this morning, rainfall chances are looking better for late Thursday into Friday and again Saturday morning. A dying out boundary will be draped across the NW part of the state which should trigger some development that rides along outflow boundaries and could provide a soaking rain for lucky ones.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020061712/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png

Actual rain! Finally!

Hope So. These rain maps change every hour it seems. Bring on the Rain!!!!!

When do we expect the rain? Any ideas on totals?

We should see some type of development near daybreak that is (most likely) in N/NW OK. This will expand from there to other places by lunchtime, where and when exactly is looking extremely difficult to forecast as it will be rain and storms riding along their own outflow boundaries. These types of events are usually pretty random. But the good news, is it looks like SOMEONE will be getting some good rainfall.

Right now it looks like the best shot for rain Friday is W into C OK.

Then Sunday into Monday looks like N into NE OK.


Here are some maps showing potential outcomes from Friday through late Saturday

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020061818/namconus_apcpn_scus_22.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020061812/wrf-arw_apcpn_scus_48.png

David Payne dropping rain percentages. It doesn't look like promising, but hope I'm wrong. Praying for 1" of rain in west OKC.

Rain and storm development zone is moving in toward the metro from the west right now. Should be raining across majority of OKC by lunchtime.

There is potential for an additional round of rain/storms tonight from a MCS that develops in the TX panhandle. The best shot for this is across SW and S OK, though.

Thank goodness for the rain!

After living in California for 25 years, not only does it not rain much, there was a big drought by their standards on top of that. Everything not artificially (and expensively) watered died, the wildlife really struggled, tons of destructive fires, etc.

After that experience, I realized water = life and I'm grateful every single time it rains.

We got dumped on in Norman. Flooding everywhere. Happy to have it!

Massive cold pool over C OK with pockets of light rain still falling. Severe storms are developing across the panhandle now, they will probably make it to W OK before being killed by the cooled, stable air. Maybe some light showers late in the metro from whatever hasn't dissipated.

Still may have some development for Saturday, but location and chances are hard to predict right now with all of the boundaries scattered across the area now. Just check radar before doing outdoor plans.

Sunday night into Monday still looks decent for another round of storms, could be some severe.

Another round of severe storms will come down from KS overnight. Localized flooding and strong wind with bow echoes is the main threat.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020062112/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

Severe thunderstorm watch has been out for large part of the state. Severe line is just now entering the NW part of the state.

I had a big rainstorm this morning in NW OKC. Nice to get these rains

One more round of storms going up now across SE Colorado right now. Models bring broken line down across panhandles and into W/SW OK. Chances are low for anything substantial reaching the metro, but sometimes these things expand randomly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020062220/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png

Pretty solid early-summer forecast for the next 7-10 days.

Highs near 90, lows upper 60s and low 70s.

Next shot at rain looks like very slight chances Friday through the weekend from a dying pacific tropical system. At this time, I wouldn't let it ruin any plans.