Very slight chance of storm development over C OK this afternoon. The tail-end of a boundary will be swinging through like last week. However, models are mostly pointing toward storms developing along it after it passes OKC. SPC has OKC area on the very edge of the Slight Risk, so as for any storms that do develop, they will likely be severe.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2020050412/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_scus_11.png

I hope we get some big rain events this month; otherwise, it's going to be a very dry summer.

I agree its been very dry here in Midwest city the last 3 weeks. Started off nicely in early April then it seems like we are very unlucky with all these systems coming through. The extended forecast doesn’t hold much promise either. The one bonus is the severe weather season so far is being held down somewhat

Storms popped just SE of OKC metro. So just strong north winds tonight.

Midwest City gets missed again...as usual.

Storms popped just SE of OKC metro. So just strong north winds tonight.

Why does it seem like our storms have been moving Northwest to southeast this year as opposed to that classical southwest to northeast?

It seems to me that we are just not having that "classic" dryline setup that we are use to seeing in the southern plains. We are also getting lots of late season cold fronts that are coming through and complicating things.

That is correct, so far the majority of the storms have come across the country on the northern sides - coming in from NW to SE, thus the southern plains is getting clipped with tail-end action. It is worth noting that to the SE of OK, there has been several rounds of significant severe weather - much reminiscent of summertime severe weather setups.

Fun fact, OKC has only been under a Tornado Watch once this year, and it was in the second week of January.

Wasn’t the north/arctic colder than normal this winter and now the cold fronts are hitting us more often thus not allowing the SW storm cycle to open up as much? Seems we’ve had more fronts come thru than normal.

That is correct, so far the majority of the storms have come across the country on the northern sides - coming in from NW to SE, thus the southern plains is getting clipped with tail-end action. It is worth noting that to the SE of OK, there has been several rounds of significant severe weather - much reminiscent of summertime severe weather setups.

Fun fact, OKC has only been under a Tornado Watch once this year, and it was in the second week of January.

16037

It's going to get active the last 2 weeks of May there is a big pattern change coming. On a side note when did stations start doing wall 2 wall for thunderstorm warnings.

... On a side note when did stations start doing wall 2 wall for thunderstorm warnings.

Maybe 'cos the recent ones were supposed to be super-severe (and maybe they were, but not around us at NW 36th/May)? Last week one of the stations yammered on about a storm, literally saying "This is out of our viewing area, but blahblahblah". :doh:

Maybe 'cos the recent ones were supposed to be super-severe (and maybe they were, but not around us at NW 36th/May)? Last week one of the stations yammered on about a storm, literally saying "This is out of our viewing area, but blahblahblah". :doh:My old stomping grounds. I grew up two blocks East of Chase bank. 3700 block of Miller.

My old stomping grounds. I grew up two blocks East of Chase bank. 3700 block of Miller.

Nice area you grew up in, although we're on the other side of 36th from where you were - we live on Venice Blvd, actually.

It's going to get active the last 2 weeks of May there is a big pattern change coming. On a side note when did stations start doing wall 2 wall for thunderstorm warnings.


So I guess that means the local guys will start hyping an event possibly taking place a week from Monday.

Seems like the new normal.

Here is a snapshot of late Thursday. Showing storms or clusters of storms coming off dryline in TX. But storm movement will likely be ESE to SE. Exact location of development is still unclear, but W and SW OK is a good bet. More storms will develop with cold front that comes through later in the night, but storms are expected to be less intense than any dryline action.


Threat emphasis is on large hail and damaging wind gusts with any bow echoes forming along leading edge of clusters.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020050606/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

Latest short-range models indicate increasing potential for some cells to pop up ahead of the cold front. If we get additional heating/clouds clearing here in C OK, the chances of this occurring go up. These cells could have some damaging hail potential.

Here is a snapshot showing storms out front. The cluster/line on the back end will be a widespread damaging wind threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020050715/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

Currently 77.4 at my house near downtown Edmond. Heating nicely...

Dewpoints are surging along the dryline out in the panhandle, if anything fires out there - it will be severe. SW OK needs to watch for monster hail with any isolated cells as updrafts will be impressive.


Here is another shot that shows line of storms coming across the state. Damaging winds main threat with the line.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020050718/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

C'mon rain! Just put down fresh fertilizer.

Unlike other TV stations News 9 don't have to wait for the NWS to issue a tornado warning. They can issue their own. SAY WHAT? SMH

One storm down in SW OK that has split into two. Northern one is weaker and moving ENE. The main cell is still heading ESE, dropping hail into the Red River.

SPC has upgraded central OK with an Enhanced Risk due to an overnight wind threat associated with the potential line of storms.

Details:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRADY GRANT
HARPER KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
WASH ITA WOODS WOODWARD

Counties in pink covered:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Storms coming in now. They are NOT severe at this time. The line is not organized enough at this time for damaging winds.

Almost 2 inches just south of Tinker! Finally, Midwest City and southeast OKC were not missed (the hail woke me up)!

Interestingly, it seemed like there was a swath of moderate to only light rain from just north of the turnpike/I-44 to Guthrie that got under 1 inch. I measured .7" in my backyard. Storms were really training last night weren't they?

What kind of setup are we looking at this week? Seems like it could get very stormy?

Solid rain chances tonight. Cooler for Tuesday with continued spotty rain chances.

Wednesday evening potential for a dryline severe weather setup. However, this will be highly dependent on daytime heating/clearing. Currently marked as a Slight Risk by SPC with emphasis on western OK for significant severe storm potential.

Rain and storms will continue to increase across the TX PH and into W OK heading into evening. Widespread rain and embedded storms will move across main body of OK overnight.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020051118/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_14.png

Looking at the high res models this morning, it looks like this may be a non-event for OKC. Anybody more in tune with what’s really going on have a comment?

The region is currently under an absolute blanket. It will take some god-tier clearing to get high instability built into most of OK. Western OK looks like the best shot for clearing ahead of the dryline. Storms will likely congeal into a cluster or line as they move across the border, this is why the main threat will be damaging wind. Depending on if air can destabilize further east of that is yet to be seen,

Here is a snapshot showing storms going up later this afternoon, then another showing the remnants and dying line in C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020051312/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020051312/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_14.png

MD is out for far W OK and the panhandle area. Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0575.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandles...western OK and
western TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 131900Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected within the next couple
of hours. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main hazards
with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Deepening CU has been noted over the last 30-60 minutes
near the TX/NM boarder over Cochran to Gaines Counties just ahead of
the surface dryline. South/southeasterly low level flow south of
Lubbock southward toward Midland is resulting in strong low level
convergence along the dryline in this area. Furthermore, strong
surface heating is resulting in temperatures in the mid to upper
80s, quickly approaching convective temperatures. 18z regional RAOBs
indicate there is still some MLCIN, but additional heating and
sharpening of the dryline will overcome this in the next couple of
hours.

Additional CU development has been noted further northeast toward
CDS where low level stratus has mostly cleared and MLCAPE has
increased to around 2000 J/kg. Surface analysis also showed a
confluence zone from the eastern TX Panhandle toward far southwest
OK/western north TX in this vicinity. This should foster increasing
low level ascent as a dryline bulge mixes eastward toward the
eastern TX Panhandle. As a result, there could be multiple areas of
convective initiation around the same time this afternoon across the
broader region from the OK/TX panhandle southward through the TX
South Plains.

18z RAOBs show very steep lapse rates across the region, but
overall, effective bulk shear is rather marginal, on the order of
25-35 kt. Some discrete cells could develop initially, especially
near the TX/OK border where low level moisture is deeper and
vertical shear is a bit more favorable. Semi-discrete storms will be
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Nevertheless, a transition
toward clusters/bowing segments is likely to occur within 1-2 hours,
especially further south where the deeply mixed boundary layer will
result in strong downdraft potential.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/13/2020

So much for clear skies high near 80 for the metro. 3pm still only 68. BUST

So much for clear skies high near 80 for the metro. 3pm still only 68. BUST

I'm good with a bust. I'm at work and my new car is out there unprotected until 3am :(.

So much for clear skies high near 80 for the metro. 3pm still only 68. BUST

Don't sound so upset!

Here comes the sun

Storms are developing now. Short-range models form a cluster or broken line of storms that comes across the border and eventually dies out as it heads east in the overnight. Best severe threat will be SW and S along the Red River.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020051318/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_10.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020051320/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

Bummer. This season has been a big ole flop so far. Not much in the forecast either. Could our storm season be in June this year??

Bummer. This season has been a big ole flop so far. Not much in the forecast either. Could our storm season be in June this year??
You wish.

Good grief. Why is there such vitriol when somebody says they enjoy storm season?

Anyway, yes I do. I love watching those big thunderheads roll in from the southwest on my back porch on a warm and humid spring evening.

Good grief. Why is there such vitriol when somebody says they enjoy storm season?

Anyway, yes I do. I love watching those big thunderheads roll in from the southwest on my back porch on a warm and humid spring evening.

Because big and damaging and sometimes deadly storms are an odd thing to like just for your own visual gratification.

Because big and damaging and sometimes deadly storms are an odd thing to like just for your own visual gratification.

Tell that to every meteorologist and storm chaser in the state...

Tell that to every meteorologist and storm chaser in the state...

If given the chance, I gladly will. Thanks.

Good grief. Why is there such vitriol when somebody says they enjoy storm season?

Anyway, yes I do. I love watching those big thunderheads roll in from the southwest on my back porch on a warm and humid spring evening.

Do you root for hurricanes too? How about earthquakes?

I like them too, and the reality is that my rooting for or against them has no impact on what actually happens.

I guess I’m a sadist but I love severe storms. Sucks for those that get nailed by it and pay the price but they are very exciting. I love tornados as well when they hit the countryside and stay out of cities. Very pretty to watch.

Looks like we lucked out here for tonight. Thu and Fri are marginal so very unlikely to have anything happen, and then it really clears up and stays that way through the rest of the month. Once June rolls around we should be out of the woods completely. It is really narcissistic and childish to want storms. Some people just aren't right.

Looks like we lucked out here for tonight. Thu and Fri are marginal so very unlikely to have anything happen, and then it really clears up and stays that way through the rest of the month. Once June rolls around we should be out of the woods completely. It is really narcissistic and childish to want storms. Some people just aren't right.

I like them from a photography perspective...love to shoot lightning......when its not over my head....usually as it goes past. Haven't shot a tornado yet, have no desire to really....unless its some distance away and I have a drone.....but I'm too old for that one.....

Ian, shut up and crawl back into your hole. It isn’t childish nor narcissistic. Gtfo with that crap.

I like them from a photography perspective...love to shoot lightning......when its not over my head....usually as it goes past. Haven't shot a tornado yet, have no desire to really....unless its some distance away and I have a drone.....but I'm too old for that one.....
Be careful, that makes you a child in the eyes of some.

Sad, little people.

Severe watch extended a few counties east to encompass I-35 corridor. Storms are currently in a line moving east. We will see if they can maintain their current intensity as they move into cooler air.

Be careful, that makes you a child in the eyes of some.

Apparently!! I do the lightning from my back porch. When I was younger, I'd be in the middle of a field with a metal tripod. Since having kids, I hide on my porch once they've passed. Or stick the lens through a car window.....I turned into a fraidy cat once i had kids...And after being a ER nurse when the f5s come through...I don't even mess with pictures of that...I sit with the kids and the spiders in the storm shelter. :)

^^^ I was watching videos of the F-5 that hit El Reno where that weather channel guy was taken out and that is some scary stuff!

Looks like Anons analysis is correct as the storms are breaking up already. Looks like they will fizzle out before Canadian Co and no worries for OKC metro tonight. Gotta get through those marginal chances through the week (I am not expecting anything) then we look to be in the clear long range. I love it!

Only severe storms left are down along the Red River. OKC may get a tiny drink before this decaying cell dies out. We may have some gusty winds with the storms collapsing.

Anonymous seems to be our good luck charm, OKC has not had any major severe weather in the years since 2013. May he stick around a long time, and the weather remain sunny and warm for the rest of time.

Why am I seeing lightning and hearing thunder in the metro? Thought these storms were supposed to be like the dodo bird by now.

Main cell coming into SW OKC has flared up some. Not severe as of 11:40. Some gusty winds, thunder, lightning. Nice rain. Maybe some small hail.

Edit: cell just got marked as severe as of 11:41. This is the only severe storm in the state.

Surprised no one has commented on the wind...this is nuts! It blew my neighbors pergola into my yard. Who knows the true extent of damage it did to my roof.