Surprised no one has commented on the wind...this is nuts! It blew my neighbors pergola into my yard. Who knows the true extent of damage it did to my roof.

I'm in southwest OKC. The winds are crazy. My patio chairs were blown off the patio and on their way to the pond. KOCO saying wind gusts up to 64 mph. Fingers crossed no lost shingles.

The storm made a huge mess in the front yard and on my car so I have to go clean it up

We may have some gusty winds with the storms collapsing.

Famous last words. :)

Hey Anon. I'm slowly learning some of the basics of weather forecasting in my down time. My discipline is not too far different than meteorology anyway.

That being said, I'm looking at some of the GFS models for next week, and it looks like something is trying to come through next saturday. What do you think? I know it's pretty far out, so a lot can change. Just curious as to your opinion on it.

More rain tonight and tomorrow, bleah!

Is OKC going to miss the first round of rain? Looks like everything is forming to the south.

Is OKC going to miss the first round of rain? Looks like everything is forming to the south.
The outflow boundary from last nights storms in northeastern and eastern Oklahoma pushed through early and destabilized the atmosphere thus significantly lowering our chance of pretty much anything. The storms are forming to the south of us. Would like to see some rain but not if its going to be attached to giant hail or high winds.

Is OKC going to miss the first round of rain? Looks like everything is forming to the south.

Most of OKC is north of the boundary and is in stable cool air. If you’re getting a strong east wind, you probably won’t see much, if any, rain.

Hey Anon. What are you thoughts on this weekend.

To me, if I'm interpreting correctly, it looks like thursday may be interesting in SW oklahoma, but there doesn't look to be much instability present. This weekend doesn't look great either from a moisture standpoint. Looks like the moisture really starts pouring in next week, but the jet seems to be too far north. Any thoughts?

I have been out of town the last few days, so sorry for no updates for the last week, really.

Looking ahead at the items CM 25 has mentioned. Thursday and Friday storms look dependent on a MCS forming from dryline development across SW KS and into the panhandles. If any cluster can survive into the night and try and sink down into W/NW OK, then we could have a chance at something here in C OK.

Weekend looks a little more complicated, storm chances don't look the best, but there is some potential for one of those "if anything does develop, it will be severe" type scenarios. Saturday evening may be the best shot for this.

Temperatures look fantastic, just check radar for outdoor plans.

Tonight chances of storms mostly contained to SW OK:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020052018/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_10.png



Thursday mostly NW and N OK:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020052018/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_37.png


Friday, randomly scattered, likely outflow boundary dependent.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020052018/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_45.png

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is out for W KS, these will be the storms that may make it into OK late tonight. Dependent on if they can hold together and how far to the south they build.

Latest NAM actually bring storms into C OK very late, this is the first iteration of this forecasted, so we'll see if it holds any water.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020052118/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

NAM nailed it last night at the last minute.


Here is NAM's take on Saturday night:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020052212/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

I am thinking we might see redevelopment this afternoon close to central Oklahoma. Sun is out and dewpoints are recovering. Thoughts?

I am thinking we might see redevelopment this afternoon close to central Oklahoma. Sun is out and dewpoints are recovering. Thoughts?

Right now, it doesn't look like the instability will be back into play this afternoon. It doesn't start filtering back in until really late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Nothing widespread is very likely. There is a CU field developing down across NC TX. This could continue to spread into SC or SW OK. Storm movement likely to be a E/NE drift, so it is plausible to see additional development in the area from outflow boundaries. But again, we don't have a definite trigger here in C OK. Radar will have to monitored.

Seems like we’re transitioning away from our dryline/supercell storm trends to more MCS style systems that we see in early summer. At least those tend to bring good rains to the state.

I am going with bunk on the upcoming weather forecast. We were supposed to have rain all three days this weekend in the metro and so far not a drop. So when I see all these less than 50% days I don't believe we will get any rainfall. Are our forecasters really that bad? We are supposed to be some sort of forefront of meteorology. Other good news is June is right around the corner, so storm season goes away with that switch. So hopefully we don't see a drop of rain till June, and some sunshine and 90's would be nice along the way.

All they basically do is read radar and forecasts Models. Almost anyone with a 8th grade education can do that these days. Don’t shoot the messenger.

I am going with bunk on the upcoming weather forecast. We were supposed to have rain all three days this weekend in the metro and so far not a drop. ...

Rained pretty hard at NW 36th/May on Fri night and is currently raining now.

Sure they got the 50% chance of rain forecasts wrong, but they nailed the 50% chance of dry forecasts though!

Understanding odds is hard.

I am going with bunk on the upcoming weather forecast. We were supposed to have rain all three days this weekend in the metro and so far not a drop. So when I see all these less than 50% days I don't believe we will get any rainfall. Are our forecasters really that bad? We are supposed to be some sort of forefront of meteorology. Other good news is June is right around the corner, so storm season goes away with that switch. So hopefully we don't see a drop of rain till June, and some sunshine and 90's would be nice along the way.

It looks like the jet is going to be slowly moving across the state this week which looks to be pulling moisture up into the state. The catalyst for rain will be whether we get any cool air from the passing front which I believe is in the forecast.

It looks like the jet is going to be slowly moving across the state this week which looks to be pulling moisture up into the state. The catalyst for rain will be whether we get any cool air from the passing front which I believe is in the forecast.

Yes and that's what our "meteorologists" who read models with an 8th grade education level are seeing. Truth is only one of those models holds true and we get rain one time throughout the week. That is if we are lucky. We are close enough to June that cool air passing through is a pipe dream. And close enough to June that severe storm chances are on the downward part of the downward slide and we don't have to worry about hail or tornadoes.

Are we gonna present is hasn’t rained at all, including now?

Are we gonna present is hasn’t rained at all, including now?

I really don't care what you think happened. Seriously!

I really don't care what you think happened. Seriously!

You have 92 comments. Every single one of them moaning and crying about the weather. Why don't you move?!

I really don't care what you think happened. Seriously!

https://media3.giphy.com/media/lPOkrtmbD5oE8/giphy.gif

It rained, weird how facts work...

Great temperatures this week. We will likely be dealing with intermittent cloudiness until this storm moves out of the Mississippi valley. There will be a lingering slight chance of showers/storms basically every day, but nothing organized.

OKC's best shot looks like late Tuesday through Thursday at any rain showers or storms.


Looking into June, looks like we will begin warming up middle of next week. Also perhaps the GOM could see some tropical action.

I am going with bunk on the upcoming weather forecast. We were supposed to have rain all three days this weekend in the metro and so far not a drop. So when I see all these less than 50% days I don't believe we will get any rainfall. Are our forecasters really that bad? We are supposed to be some sort of forefront of meteorology. Other good news is June is right around the corner, so storm season goes away with that switch. So hopefully we don't see a drop of rain till June, and some sunshine and 90's would be nice along the way.

NO, the storm season doesn't go away in June. The 45th anniversary of the Stillwater Friday the 13th tornado is next month. Anybody would be foolish to let their guard down during June. Safer off waiting for July. But no 100% safe guarantees then.

I don't think there was any moderate risk outlooks issued anywhere in the US in May. Not sure what was the last time that happened.

Unfortunately, the same weather patterns that resulted in low severe activity could lead to above average tropical weather.

Looks like the warmth is starting to take hold. And with that, we bid you adieu, storm season! Fare thee well and don't let the door hit you on the way out!

The last few GFS runs have hinted at pop up storms on the back side of a ridge for most of OK Wednesday and Thursday. The NWS hasn’t bit though and isn’t showing any rain chances those days. Either way it will be hot this week.