Warmer today with strong south winds. This will continue for the first half of the week, pushing temperatures into the 80s.

Next cool down is Thursday heading into the weekend.

Looking out even further, there is some cold snaps in the forecast for early next week and even beyond that. Freezing temperatures are possible Sunday -Tuesday, perhaps even some light frozen precipitation.

A few supercells have developed on the far SW end of a dryline draped from NC OK and back into the TX panhandle. These are currently inside of a tornado watch that reaches just into SW OK.

If they hold together, they will likely combine into a small MCS that will try and push east across the state. If storms don’t die before reaching C OK, the main threat will be damaging winds and hail.

The Low is currently spinning directly over the state right now. Depending on destabilization progress, we could see some storms develop just over C OK or just east of C OK.

Anything that does develop has a chance to be severe. Large hail, isolated tornado.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020041212/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

Isn’t the incoming wind our real problem? I read up to 50mph gusts as the front cones thru around 2-4pm

Wind is almost here. A cool wind map I find a few years back. Hope everyone has outside items tied down!

http://hint.fm/wind/

Rain and hail in my area NW OKC. Wind picking up too. Pea size hail so far

Storms developing right on top of the metro. Strongest is cell going up in NW OKC in toward the west Edmond area. Hail size coming up on that cell. No severe warnings or watches as of 1:25PM.

20-30 MPH winds coming in behind the front. Blowing dust and falling temperatures will accompany.

Still hailing but staying pea sized. Yard is 1/4 hail now

Cold front has undercut storms. So weakening will continue. Story will be strong north winds ushering in cold air.

Temperatures will fall to near freezing tonight and then again Tuesday night.

There is a chance of some rain/snow mix late tonight, nothing significant anticipated.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020041315/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_16.png

Enjoy the nice day today. Just kidding, it will be 70 with 30 mph winds, of course. Chance of a passing shower or mist tonight on the tail-end of a storm system moving across KS.

Cooler for Friday, the weekend looks like 60s and another chance at some rain or storms Saturday night.

Consistently warmer weather is in the forecast finally. Storm chances pretty high late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Looking long-range there is some larger storm systems on the horizon that will likey result in increased severe weather chances.

I noticed yesterday the level at Lake Hefner is already quite high.

SPC outlining Slight risk across W and C OK for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020042012/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_45.png

Sounds like if we do get storms tonight, there could be up to baseball sized hail. Then we are under a slight risk again for Wednesday evening. Timing for tonight is 10 pm to 3 am for the OKC area.

I got a ton of rain yesterday evening near Penn Square.

It came in two very quickly moving bursts, but I bet I got close to an inch.

I got a ton of rain yesterday evening near Penn Square.

It came in two very quickly moving bursts, but I bet I got close to an inch.

I was out with the stroller coming back home when that first wave with pea-sized hail hit. Luckily I was coming up to Western/44th and I could jump under the canopies of the old French Cowgirl and the laundromat. It was crazy because the door to the laundromat was open and as I walked by I got a huge whiff of detergent/fabric softener and for a split second my brain immediately thought I was in Buenos Aires because of all of the crazy pedestrian-oriented sensory explosion.

I got a ton of rain yesterday evening near Penn Square.

It came in two very quickly moving bursts, but I bet I got close to an inch.

where you outside during the hailstorm? i live pretty close to you and i noticed that the 1st pea size hail storm came in and last about 5 minutes, then it stopped for about 3 minutes, then the 2nd little pea storm last for about 5 minutes. It seemed as if the winds kind of changed and started blowing the other way.
Reason why i say this is b/c i have a south facing house, so i was on my porch during the 1st episode and barely any hail was coming onto my covered porch, but then it stopped and the 2nd one came back more of the pea hail was landing on my porch. just a little observation

No, I was not outside. Got a ton of hail.

Models showing waves of thunderstorms moving from NW to SE across the state beginning as early as 9-10pm. The first cluster looks to be best shot at severe weather, main threat being hail.

After that the threat switched to flash flooding as storms will continue overnight across the same areas.

NWS Severe Tstorm
@NWSSevereTstorm
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Tuttle OK, Amber OK, Pocasset OK until 9:15 PM CDT

Tornado Warning for Elk City Oklahoma KFDR - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1 7:33 PM MDT Super-Res Velocity Tilt 1 7:33 PM MDT #okwx

NWS Norman
@NWSNorman
8:45 PM- Another dangerous severe thunderstorm with large hail is approaching Elk City from the northwest! Tennis ball size hail is possible! Some flooding is also possible. #okwx

Tennis ball size hail? You can kiss the roof's goodbye. Damn

Tennis ball size hail? You can kiss the roof's goodbye. Damn

Go to this tweet for picture its massive


Michael Armstrong
@KOCOMichael
Tennis ball to baseball size hail with the storm near Elk City. Camera by Kelsey Merz #okwx #koco5

https://mobile.twitter.com/KOCOMichael/status/1252777741155356673

This trio of supercells will continue southeast. SW sides of OKC are getting clipped by anvil precipitation, but the main cores will stay southwest.

We will have a break before more storms develop out in western OK as the low ejects directly across the state.

I might be wrong but KFOR 4 never ran storm trackers or live radar shots this evening. Channel 5 and 9 were on top of all of it, and still are as of 11:20pm. Wonder what is going on over there? Just seems weird. Not complaining, just wondering.

I couldn't help but notice that central oklahoma, namely OKC and NE of us, missed out on a lot of the storms last night and this morning. Yesterday, David Payne was saying today was a bigger tornado day for the southeastern part of the state. Since central oklahoma missed out on the weather last night, does that mean the energy is still in the atmosphere for storms today? What are the chances we see an increased tornado threat today?

The low has tracked further north than models showed, but storm are still developing SW of the OKC area, these are on the backside of the low and tracking ENE.

Wind and hail are primary threats with any cell that becomes severe. As of 8:20am, the cell approaching SW OKC is severe.

Does News9 over saturate their weather intensity scale on purpose? Every time I see their radar I think some tornadic storms approaching. I guess I could see the benefit of being able to see stronger cores of the storm more clearly.

I had a baby in the Fall so I have not really paid attention to much of anything else: Did we ever dry out from last year's torrential rains, or do we still have a decent level of moisture build up that exposes us to significant flooding concerns throughout this storm season?

Rainfall in the last 365 days has been fantastic for most of OK. Very rarely do we get consistent moisture replenishment for this long.

For a running 365 days, Central OK is 13" over normal rainfall. Year-to-date Central OK is 3" over normal.

Flash flooding will always be a threat regardless of past moisture, severe storms can put down 3" of rain in an hour. In terms of persistent rain leading to flooding, I would still put the threat as low. Moisture in OK is generally a very good thing. The problem is we usually get it in the form of severe storms, which is the flash flooding mentioned above.

Looks like the boundary has pushed down to around Goldsby as of 12:30pm, the lower the better for OKC right? Of course I'll still be watching afternoon coverage and hoping anything that develops down south tracks over the fields and not the towns.

Last of any significant rain/storm is coming into the W sides of OKC metro right now. Nothing too serious it seems.

Potentially dangerous situation from south OK and down toward Dallas area with clear skies and temperatures near 90. Tornadoes will be possible with the supercells developing there.

Large tornado near Springer. Seems like activity is picking up as storms move East of 35

Slight chance at a passing shower or storm late tonight into Friday. Most action likely contained to E/NE OK.

Beautiful weekend on tap with OUT 30MPH WINDS!

Surprise little cell out in NW Canadian Co. moving in no hurry towards the metro ~15mph.

I'm sure Anon will have a much better summary of things, but OKC is currently inside a SPC sig severe bubble for wind and hail on their Day 2 outlook. Current hourly forecasts show the whole afternoon from around 1-6pm as the window for greatest development before it moves into eastern OK and really gets crazy.

As he said, SPC has outlined Enhanced Risk for essentially the eastern half of the state for Tuesday afternoon. Emphasis on large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Depending on where storms develop, the initial cells will be the most dangerous, as storms will likely form into an eventual line as we head into dark.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020042712/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_34.png

Moderate Risk upgrade to E/SE OK with emphasis on tornado parameters.

It is not too clear at this time if the boundary will develop storms far enough west to clip OKC metro or not. Right now most models develop storms just barely east of the populated city as the boundary passes by. Storms will start as individual cells that may eventually form into a line, which may then eventually form into a line of supercells that have tornado producing tendencies heading into SE parts of the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020042812/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_13.png

Outside of today, we're heading into our traditionally most active severe weather time in the state, and it doesn't look like there is a lick of activity worth a crap coming up. What are you guys seeing? Any changes for severe weather coming up in the next couple of weeks? This is one of the most fascinating times of the year to be in Oklahoma, and I feel like it's been kind of a bust so far. It also seems (haven't looked at the data) like it has been dry this month.

I'm personally OK with it being a bust all season for the severe stuff. But just because you're not seeing it in your exact location doesn't mean someone else in the state isn't suffering from it. Home repairs are the last thing anyone needs to worry about right now.

If we can avoid people crowding into shelters because of tornadoes and increasing the spread of COVID it would be a win-win.

Clouds are starting to go up over Woods County from the cold front moving in. Tornado Watch has been issued for the majority of NE Oklahoma until 11pm, but stops short of Payne Co.

16014

Are we gonna see some rain or slight storms in the metro?

Annnd there's the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm as well.

16015

It also seems (haven't looked at the data) like it has been dry this month.

Depends which part of the state you're in whether it's been dry or abnormally wet this past month
http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/last30dayspct.png

CU field starting to show signs of storm development NW of OKC. Boundary is moving quickly, so OKC may get early-development cells that are not yet severe. We shall see.

Short-range models are saying YES to storms hitting OKC in the next few hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020042820/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_3.png

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MARSHALL MCCLAIN MURRAY
NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN

Also as the map indicates in yellow, eastern Oklahoma has a tornado watch, which includes Tulsa:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Boundary is completely lighting up now. Strongest cell in C OK is just west of Stillwater. That cell showing some rotation, so hail size will be increasing.

Don't want Hail. Damn!!!!

All storms along the line are now severe. Initial wind gust and damaging hail will be the main threats moving into Edmond/OKC at this time.

My (newish) car sits outside. We’re west of lake Hefner. I bought one of the silver blimp looking covers that inflate. I’ve put it on twice now. Tonight I’m glad I did. There was only a few minutes of marble with maybe a quarter here and there. Enough that my car would definitely have at least a couple good dings. Glad I believed the forecast. At 4:30ish I would have thought the thing was going to miss us.

Most of OKC is out of the woods now.

Tomorrow will be nice temperatures, but strong NW wind will make it pretty annoying to be outside.

Thanks in advance to Anonymous and everyone else for the serve weather updates this time of year. This is my go to source for weather.

I got lucky in Mustang. Only got clipped by quarter size hail. They got much bigger a short distance away. I feel lucky.

Not a drop of rain at 89th and Sooner, south of Tinker.

Now that this is over, on to the next one? Any long-range outlooks available? Anything looking interesting for May? I know a lot of us could probably use the rain.

If the long range stuff isn't showing anything major than that is a good thing for May in Oklahoma I'd say. I like this trend of all the major stuff shifting eastward year after year. If that is the new norm then we should see tornado and severe storm numbers decrease in this locale.