Great graphs.

Pete, just to be clear on the last graph: that is the cumulative positive test rate since the start of the event, not a running mean of daily positive test rates which are up around 10-11%, correct?

And to think non of these numbers count rapid test. If you test positive on a rapid test what are the odds your going to get a swab test to double check?

The good news on the charts above is that there appears to be a slope change for hospitalizations. Hopefully it's a sign that those are plateauing.

And to think non of these numbers count rapid test. If you test positive on a rapid test what are the odds your going to get a swab test to double check?

The positives are reliable enough that I don’t really think anybody is confirming them.

The good news on the charts above is that there appears to be a slope change for hospitalizations. Hopefully it's a sign that those are plateauing.

Eh, unless our new cases plateau, I don't see our hospitalizations doing so.

Eh, unless our new cases plateau, I don't see our hospitalizations doing so.

Agreed. However, we have no clue what daily rates are. All we're seeing in the data is the capacity of the labs to run tests as they have such a big back log.

Agreed. However, we have no clue what daily rates are. All we're seeing in the data is the capacity of the labs to run tests as they have such a big back log.

So your thinking is that our case counts have been significantly higher than what the numbers show, so those real numbers could have levelled off or plateaued, and our testing just hasn't reached that plateau yet? I could see that, and then yeah, if that's the case I think the only think we could look at is hospitalizations or deaths. But that's scary because case counts are the main thing hospitals and such have to predict/plan where this is going. We'd be limited to reacting after the fact.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-infected-hundreds-children-us-summer-camp-180016608.html

So your thinking is that our case counts have been significantly higher than what the numbers show, so those real numbers could have levelled off or plateaued, and our testing just hasn't reached that plateau yet? I could see that, and then yeah, if that's the case I think the only think we could look at is hospitalizations or deaths. But that's scary because case counts are the main thing hospitals and such have to predict/plan where this is going. We'd be limited to reacting after the fact.

Let's just say that I *hope* that's the case. I think it's just too hard to draw much, if anything from the daily case counts right now. Maybe if the labs can catch up things will be more reliable.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-infected-hundreds-children-us-summer-camp-180016608.html

Wow! Nearly a 75% rate on positive tests. That is insane! Looks like kids can transmit....and very efficiently too I might add. Bad news...

Epidemiology Report is out
71.6% increase in new cases from week before
51.3% increase in deaths from week before
I hope decreases due to mask wearing start showing up soon.

Epidemiology Report is out
71.6% increase in new cases from week before
51.3% increase in deaths from week before
I hope decreases due to mask wearing start showing up soon.

I would imagine this week on the mask thing. There about a 2 week lag. Hospitalizations even though very high have stayed at the same level now for about 2 weeks. I guess that is good considering the record number of cases we have had. I know there is a lag but cases really started to take off end of June so even though they still might go up I'm not going to sure if we see a huge jump. Like from going from 620 or so like we are now to 800 or 900 in a few days.

Epidemiology Report is out
71.6% increase in new cases from week before
51.3% increase in deaths from week before
I hope decreases due to mask wearing start showing up soon.

The increase put us in the the top 5 states with increases in the last 7 days, percentage wise.

US coronavirus map: Tracking the outbreak (https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/)

With the delay in symptom onset and the delay in testing results, I don't think we'll see any data that shows the effects of a mask ordinance for at least two more weeks. And, really, I'm afraid that as long as people can sit in a bar or restaurant for 3-4 hours without a mask, it's not going to drop. The only thing that really shut down in OK in March were bars, restaurants, gyms, and schools. And bars and restaurants are mostly exempt from the mask mandate, since you're eating and drinking.

The only thing that really shut down in OK in March were bars, restaurants, gyms, and schools. And bars and restaurants are mostly exempt from the mask mandate, since you're eating and drinking.

Churches are exempt too and that's where large groups gather on a regular basis.

And keep in mind, it's only OKC, Tulsa and a few other cities that even have mask mandates. Edmond still does not, etc.

And finally, people are generally not wearing masks at work or around friends and family.


I'd say that at least 75% of all human interactions in the state of Oklahoma involve people not wearing masks; and I'd bet it's over 90%.

Churches are exempt too and that's where large groups gather on a regular basis.

And keep in mind, it's only OKC, Tulsa and a few other cities that even have mask mandates. Edmond still does not, etc.

And finally, people are generally not wearing masks at work or around friends and family.


I'd say that at least 75% of all human interactions in the state of Oklahoma involve people not wearing masks; and I'd bet it's over 90%.
We haven’t been to church since March. They stream online and that’s good with us. I’m even a little ticked at our church, which is large, for continually expanding services, etc. the last two months. Just because you are told you can it doesn’t make it the smart thing to do.
You have a good point about friends and family. NYC’s numbers stayed high for some time in a COMPLETE lock down. It was attributed to families spreading it within their homes. The few that truly had essential jobs caught it and brought it home to those that truly never left home.

22,607 tests pending! I’m certain that’s by far a new record for this stat.

Our church is still closed and doing online services, with no plans to open in August so far.

Our church is still closed and doing online services, with no plans to open in August so far.Good for them!!!

Good for them!!!

We have already stressed that whenever we do open it will be with 100% mask use.

“ Asymptomatic infection was common and potentially contributed to undetected transmission, as has been previously reported (1–4). This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (1–3) and, contrary to early reports (5,6), might play an important role in transmission (7,8)”

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm?s_cid=mm6931e1_w&fbclid=IwAR0gtEnSEoZqqWbgjiBpko4ZaB4zXLASSbJcxr9O5 lJUubv81iyqgt80FyA

1,244 new cases, another record.

7-day rolling average now 1,093.


8 additional reported deaths.


Hospitalizations at 628.

BTW, people making a big deal out of Texas being a hotspot...

Per capita, Oklahoma has been adding about the same number of daily new cases as they have.

1,244 new cases, another record.

7-day rolling average now 1,093.


8 additional reported deaths.


Hospitalizations at 628.

This is frustrating and terrifying. Not enough of our fellow citizens or leaders are taking this seriously. Speaking as someone who has a young family member who got this, no one wants to get this! I know I am speaking to the chorus here.

My wife was at a CVS in North OKC when a middle-aged woman came into the store without a mask. The staff told her a mask is required to shop there. The woman said, “No, I’m good. Plus, I don’t have a mask.” They had a pile of free masks and offered her one. She said, “No, I’m fine, I am just picking up some coffee beans.”

This back and forth continued with the staff escalating the intensity of their demand that she put on the mask. Eventually the woman just bullied her way into the store, ignoring the workers and, at this point, other shoppers pleading with her to wear a mask.

If I had been there I may have lost it. This makes me incredibly angry. I am disgusted by the ignorance, selfishness, and entitlement on display.

Some of these same people will blow a gasket when they find out they won’t have OU tickets due to seating limitations or when schools are shuttered through the spring.

This is basically what it is like to read the Facebook group for Deer Creek Schools: “This is bull****, my kids won’t be wearing masks! My kids won’t distance! This while thing is fake! If my kids have to do anything I’ll pull the out of school!!!”

Followed by: “What do you mean kids will have to be at home 3 days a week and have a split schedule? I don’t have time to teach my own kids! What about people who work!!!”

People don’t want to do the stuff they need to do to control the spread and make things safer, and then are pissed when their refusal to do the bare minimum results in more severe actions.

And while I’m fully in support of safe plans by schools, including split school days or full remote learning as we are learning more about how children do actually spread the disease, I do hope that we open as soon as possible because the last thing this country needs is those folks being in charge of educating their own kids.

This is basically what it is like to read the Facebook group for Deer Creek Schools: “This is bull****, my kids won’t be wearing masks! My kids won’t distance! This while thing is fake! If my kids have to do anything I’ll pull the out of school!!!”

Followed by: “What do you mean kids will have to be at home 3 days a week and have a split schedule? I don’t have time to teach my own kids! What about people who work!!!”

People don’t want to do the stuff they need to do to control the spread and make things safer, and then are pissed when their refusal to do the bare minimum results in more severe actions.

And while I’m fully in support of safe plans by schools, including split school days or full remote learning as we are learning more about how children do actually spread the disease, I do hope that we open as soon as possible because the last thing this country needs is those folks being in charge of educating their own kids.

As I've said before (maybe not here), it's a shame the virus doesn't discriminate between the smart ones who try to do the right thing and the absolute idiots that have no education in the Constitution, science, or really any f-ing common sense. America is doomed if we continue down this path, we're already pretty much a failed nation and this kind of absurdity just exacerbates the downhill slide.

This is frustrating and terrifying. Not enough of our fellow citizens or leaders are taking this seriously. Speaking as someone who has a young family member who got this, no one wants to get this! I know I am speaking to the chorus here.

My wife was at a CVS in North OKC when a middle-aged woman came into the store without a mask. The staff told her a mask is required to shop there. The woman said, “No, I’m good. Plus, I don’t have a mask.” They had a pile of free masks and offered her one. She said, “No, I’m fine, I am just picking up some coffee beans.”

This back and forth continued with the staff escalating the intensity of their demand that she put on the mask. Eventually the woman just bullied her way into the store, ignoring the workers and, at this point, other shoppers pleading with her to wear a mask.

If I had been there I may have lost it. This makes me incredibly angry. I am disgusted by the ignorance, selfishness, and entitlement on display.

Some of these same people will blow a gasket when they find out they won’t have OU tickets due to seating limitations or when schools are shuttered through the spring.

I went to Tractor Supply in Guthrie yesterday for a part. Normally I go the one in Edmond but thought the Guthrie store would be slow at 4 pm. It was only 2 other people in there. They did have a big sign on the door that masks where required and as you entered they had hand sanitizer and a box of disposable masks for customer use. As I was getting ready to leave when I looked and saw a lady entering the store with a mask, I told an employee and they just shrugged it off as so what. They are not enforcing their own store policy. ugh. I guess they are tired of fighting the fight with people who refuse to wear one.

I certainly understand the frustration with people not wearing masks; however, you’re just going to have to accept the fact that you can’t control other people’s decisions. The goal of the mask mandates are working. The vast majority of people are wearing masks. There are 1-2 outliers everywhere you go. It’s better than 50% or more not wearing masks.

The fact of the matter is that the only way to get 100% compliance with it is to enforce draconian measures. That’s just not going to happen in this country. My suggestion for everybody’s mental health is just to focus on what you can control. Wear your mask. It helps you as well as those around you. If you find yourself in a store where people aren’t wearing masks, just leave the store. Go at a different time like when they open.

Also, there are many posters that swarm like a moth to a flame with the daily numbers. I’m curious in them as well, but we all need to see it for what it is. We’re seeing the effects of tons of back logged tests. We’re seeing more of the rates at which the labs can analyze the tests right now moreso than the actual rate of disease spread. I’m not trying to diminish the situation we’re in. We have measures in place. We have yet gone long enough to see if they work. You can’t control other people. The daily numbers are badly biased with error. Accept those facts. Try to embrace the new normal and get out and enjoy the nice weather!!

^

As has been said over and over again, the trends provide the most reliable information.

And those trends are horrific no matter how want to portray them.

If stores won’t enforce their mask rules I would at least prefer them to be honest and take all the signs down and advertise the fact that they don’t care about the rules governing their operations. That way we all know which stores to avoid and make smart decisions about our own health.

^

As has been said over and over again, the trends provide the most reliable information.

And those trends are horrific no matter how want to portray them.

Trends derived from bad data are still bad trends. Again, hospitalizations are probably the most reliable data to derive any type of reliable interpretation from. That data suggests that we may be leveling out. We’ll just have to wait a couple of weeks for the epidemiology reports to come out with the corrected daily data to see if what the hospitalizations are showing us now is true.

Trends derived from bad data are still bad trends. Again, hospitalizations are probably the most reliable data to derive any type of reliable interpretation from. That data suggests that we may be leveling out. We’ll just have to wait a couple of weeks for the epidemiology reports to come out with the corrected daily data to see if what the hospitalizations are showing us now is true.

So it's bad data except for hospitalizations which is accurate because those numbers may be leveling out but we really don't know that because we don't have the data?

It's absurd to try and minimize this situation. Hope is one thing; trying to put forth the idea over and over again that things are somehow getting better is completely irresponsible and dangerous.

So it's bad data except for hospitalizations which is accurate because those numbers may be leveling out?

It's absurd to try and minimize this situation. Hope is one thing; trying to put forth the idea over and over again that things are somehow getting better is completely irresponsible and dangerous.

Wow. Ok man. Look at the data objectively as opposed to emotionally. They are reporting 1200 new cases today. That’s a big number. However, how many of those numbers are from today? It’s not 1200. We won’t know what today’s number are till the back log catches up. The moment you plot 1200 on a graph with dates, you’re immediately making the wrong interpretation. Hospitalization data does not suffer from that same lagging issue as the daily rates data.

Sometimes you are limited as far as shopping time and places to shop. I am not buying dog food but a very specialized boom sprayer part. I have to shop stores that stock large boom sprayer parts. I have a one day window to spray because of rain. I am pasture spraying chemical. Not what the average person does or even owns a large pull behind ag sprayer.

Wow. Ok man. Look at the data objectively as opposed to emotionally. They are reporting 1200 new cases today. That’s a big number. However, how many of those numbers are from today? It’s not 1200. We won’t know what today’s number are till the back log catches up. The moment you plot 1200 on a graph with dates, you’re immediately making the wrong interpretation. Hospitalization data does not suffer from that same lagging issue as the daily rates data.

Not being emotional and take offense to that characterization.

Step back and look at the big picture.

Cases are going way up. If there is a backlog, that only works against your argument. The number of positives keep going up -- way up -- and therefore logic dictates the number of cases reported in a given day are actually much lower than the positive test samples collected on that same day.

And why is the backlog so large? Because people are worried about having the disease. And, it turns out, the positive rate remains very high as well so most people have good reason to go through the trouble of being tested.

And I suppose the rapid increase in deaths -- both locally and nationally -- doesn't matter at all?


I am very suspicious of anyone who looks at the data -- delayed and flawed as it may be -- and tries to make the case that somehow things are leveling out or getting better.

BTW, people making a big deal out of Texas being a hotspot...

Per capita, Oklahoma has been adding about the same number of daily new cases as they have.

Hum I think I said about a week or two ago we were the new Texas. I'm also saying now our mask mandate is pointless. Now don't get me wrong I am pro mask. I wear a mask and face shield at the same time if i ever so out which is hardly ever. What I mean by saying it was pointless as that it was just too late in the game. This thing is out of control and the only way I see getting it back under control is a roll back that will never ever happen. Also saw a couple post last night of scissortail park and people not wearing mask and were fairly close to one another. With this many cases per day the only way mask work is it everyone and I mean everyone wore one. Which isn't going to happen.

This rapidly increasing death rate. Where are we seeing this?

This rapidly increasing death rate. Where are we seeing this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeWVPnlXoAEDyIv?format=png&name=medium

https://bigthink.com/personal-growth/stockdale-paradox-confronting-reality-vital-success

Hope and faith rooted in reality is important.

^

As has been said over and over again, the trends provide the most reliable information.

And those trends are horrific no matter how want to portray them.

DID SOMEBODY SAY TRENDS?!??!?!

Cases and deaths (Rolling 7)
https://i.imgur.com/l0F6MkS.png


Cases only:
https://i.imgur.com/OH4Fs04.png

Not being emotional nor am I dead-set on justifying a position.

Step back and look at the big picture.

Cases are going way up. If there is a backlog, that only works against your argument. The number of positives keep going up -- way up -- and therefore logic dictates the number of cases reported in a given day are actually much lower than the positive test samples taken on that same day.

And why is the backlog so large? Because people are worried about having the disease. And, it turns out, the positive rate remains very high as well.

And I suppose the rapid increase in deaths -- both locally and nationally -- doesn't matter at all?


I am very suspicious of anyone who looks at the data -- delayed and flawed as it may be -- and tries to make the case that somehow things are leveling out or getting better.

It’s impossible to know what the back log is going to do. The up-and-down spikes in the data will likely smooth out. Again, it’s impossible to know.

Deaths going up now is not surprising as they typically lag behind hospitalizations. Not surprised by that in the least. It is unfortunate that they are rising, but it’s to be expected.

I’m willing to change my interpretation as time goes by and the true data trends pop out. Heck, I was about as alarmist as anybody; however, it’s been shown that there’s enough wrong with this daily data that it just can’t be taken at face value. I’m now taking it with a grain of salt and I’m leaning on a data curve that may be more reliable.

Just as you are suspicious of me because I’m leaning on a different dataset than you, I am very suspicious of anybody who takes bad data at face value. I’ll eat crow if I need to and I’ll change my stance as new data comes in. Science is not perfect. We have to be flexible in our understanding of the data proposed and make our best interpretations, and if necessary, change them as more data comes in.

DID SOMEBODY SAY TRENDS?!??!?!

Cases and deaths (Rolling 7)
https://i.imgur.com/l0F6MkS.png


Cases only:
https://i.imgur.com/OH4Fs04.png

Thank your for your posts. I find your charts to be some of the best out there right now.

It’s impossible to know what the back log is going to do. The up-and-down spikes in the data will likely smooth out. Again, it’s impossible to know.

We can only go on historical data and trends, otherwise all data is pointless.


I'm not taking any single data point "at face value".

And there is tons more information on a regional and national scale and it's all headed sharply in the same direction.

I will also say that I’m worried about a major spike here in a few weeks. Schools are going to be a disaster with this virus still circulating.

I will also say that I’m worried about a major spike here in a few weeks. Schools are going to be a disaster with this virus still circulating.

Wanted to say I appreciate your posts and I don't mean to be argumentative.

I just worry about so much underestimation throughout the course of this thing, particularly in the U.S. I am far from an alarmist but at the same time I think the current situation is much worse than the large majority want to believe.

I think the financial chickens are really going to come home to roost over the next several months and that we'll be digging ourselves out of a deep hole for years to come. THEN people will care and by that time it will be far too late.

This rapidly increasing death rate. Where are we seeing this?

The Rapidly increasing death rate can be observed in a graph that shows deaths on a Y axis, and the date on an X axis. Such as the graph below. The red arrows point to the rolling, 7-day average of deaths caused by Covid-19.

https://i.imgur.com/1MBiavU.png

This number is higher today than it was last week.
This number is higher today than it was two weeks ago.
This number is higher today than it was three weeks ago.
This number is higher today than it was four weeks ago.

I certainly understand the frustration with people not wearing masks; however, you’re just going to have to accept the fact that you can’t control other people’s decisions. The goal of the mask mandates are working. The vast majority of people are wearing masks. There are 1-2 outliers everywhere you go. It’s better than 50% or more not wearing masks.

The fact of the matter is that the only way to get 100% compliance with it is to enforce draconian measures. That’s just not going to happen in this country. My suggestion for everybody’s mental health is just to focus on what you can control. Wear your mask. It helps you as well as those around you. If you find yourself in a store where people aren’t wearing masks, just leave the store. Go at a different time like when they open.

Also, there are many posters that swarm like a moth to a flame with the daily numbers. I’m curious in them as well, but we all need to see it for what it is. We’re seeing the effects of tons of back logged tests. We’re seeing more of the rates at which the labs can analyze the tests right now moreso than the actual rate of disease spread. I’m not trying to diminish the situation we’re in. We have measures in place. We have yet gone long enough to see if they work. You can’t control other people. The daily numbers are badly biased with error. Accept those facts. Try to embrace the new normal and get out and enjoy the nice weather!!

1. I don't go to Lowe’s or anywhere in Edmond or places like that for a reason: to protect my sanity. I am thrilled the mask ordinance passed and I worked hard to lobby folks like the mayor and some council members to get it and I agree with you that it is working.

2. It is my right to be frustrated and express my frustration without seeking your approval. Your tone policing here is quite extraordinary.

3. Speaking of which, it is totally reasonable to express any thought or emotion about the record-setting increase in new cases. And, as someone who has experienced this close to home, I assure you that the lag you are claiming in new cases due to a lag in processing is not as great as you imagine. Of the ten people I personally know who were tested in the last month, the longest anyone I know waited for results was like five days. I realize some people out there had to wait longer.

You act like your interpretation of data is settled fact when you have no idea what the data say. Importantly, new cases are rising weekly by more than 50%. Oklahoma is among the top five states in growth of new cases. For you to claim, day after day and week after week, that this stunning and continual increase in new cases does not indicate an increase in community spread is ridiculous on its face. It also puts you in the minimizer category.

Thank your for your posts. I find your charts to be some of the best out there right now.

Thanks! When I saw all these blurry, low-res charts & graphs all over social media, news, etc... I knew it was my call to action. My time to shine. To be the hero that the people deserved!

Lol... I've spent a horribly long time of my career dealing with SQL databases, query writing, data reporting, analytical dashboards, machine data capture etc.

Also... meant to respond to your earlier question about what software I am making these with. It just Open Office, an open source version of Microsoft Office by Apache. However, the title and annotations are added later with an app named Snagit by TechSmith. It isn't free, but I used it at my old job and I liked it so much I bought it for home use ($50). It's a great app for taking screen captures, adding annotations, and then publishing in a variety of file formats. I publish these as .PNG files, as this file format doesn't cause blurry/pixelated compression artifacts like .JPEG does.

https://www.openoffice.org/

https://www.techsmith.com/screen-capture.html

I originally started my data set by downloading from Read Frontier's interactive charts. Lately though, I've just been manually updating the fields as the data is published by the state.

https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/interactivesmapsknowcasesofcovid19oklahom/

(Great independent journalists by the way, I've been meaning to donate to them!)

Using the hospitalization trends can be useful, I suppose. But I don't believe that the hospitalization raw figures are indicative of the pandemic's severity. We are apt to assume that those in the hospital with COVID are sick and those with COVID at home have mild symptoms or have recovered. I think there are a ton of people with severe COVID symptoms who are not admitted to hospital because they are not sick enough, despite being extremely ill. There is an unknown number of people who, if they presented with the same symptoms at a hospital one year ago would have been quickly admitted for treatment, possibly in the ICU.

^

I knew you had to work Snagit in there somehow!

You should be their Chief Marketing Officer.

Using the hospitalization trends can be useful, I suppose. But I don't believe that the hospitalization raw figures are indicative of the pandemic's severity. We are apt to assume that those in the hospital with COVID are sick and those with COVID at home have mild symptoms or have recovered. I think there are a ton of people with severe COVID symptoms who are not admitted to hospital because they are not sick enough, despite being extremely ill. There is an unknown number of people who, if they presented with the same symptoms at a hospital one year ago would have been quickly admitted for treatment, possibly in the ICU.

Thank you for this post. My wife’s 42-year-old friend has been denied beds even though her blood oxygen level has dipped into the 70s. She has been to the ER five times over the past two weeks. As sad as this makes me to say, I think she is going to die, probably at home, not in the hospital.

My work colleague has permanent vision problems in her left eye and she has been “recovered” since April. She also struggles to ascend a flight of stairs.

The frightening range of symptoms my family member continues to have may never rise to the level of being hospitalized, but they severely impact her life.

Tired of the minimizers and the minimizing and the “look at that shiny thing over there” torturous scrambling of data. It serves no good purpose and allows the ignorant deniers and spreadnecks all of the justification they need to remain checked out.

Using the hospitalization trends can be useful, I suppose. But I don't believe that the hospitalization raw figures are indicative of the pandemic's severity. We are apt to assume that those in the hospital with COVID are sick and those with COVID at home have mild symptoms or have recovered. I think there are a ton of people with severe COVID symptoms who are not admitted to hospital because they are not sick enough, despite being extremely ill. There is an unknown number of people who, if they presented with the same symptoms at a hospital one year ago would have been quickly admitted for treatment, possibly in the ICU.

There is also the incredible strain that these higher numbers -- even if leveling off and I think it's far too early to make that determination -- have on the staff that works in these facilities.

They go in every day scared to death of catching the disease and have to spend the whole time in masks and gloves and face shields and other protective gear.

That all makes a really hard job even more exhausting and this has already been going on for months.

Our hospitalizations would need to go way down before things start to normalize even a little bit, and the toll this is taking on health care workers is massive.


In other words, the current levels are nowhere close to sustainable, even if we don't completely run out of beds.

Tired of the minimizers and the minimizing and the “look at that shiny thing over there” torturous scrambling of data. It serves no good purpose and allows the ignorant deniers and spreadnecks all of the justification they need to remain checked out.

I’m sorry for your friend’s symptoms. However, your last point here is completely invalid. Looking at data in various different ways can sometimes bring about trends that you couldn’t see otherwise. This is extremely common in signal processing. It’s also how science works. Looking at data from one point of view then coming up with your conclusion is a great way to get burned at the end of the day.

One thing that you seem to forget as well is that you lump everyone who doesn’t agree with into this “denier or spreadneck” category (whatever that means). It’s one thing to just blindly say,”eh, this is a bad flu because the guy in the whitehouse says it.” It’s a completely different thing to look at and try to understand all the data to inform and interpretation. Just remember. There’s a lot of slop out there in our current understanding in what’s really happening. This is what happens with a new virus.

When overall numbers start to improve (whether next month or next year), it will be interesting to see if the hospitalization trend remains more stationary as the threshold hospitals use for admittance becomes more broad. In other words, if today only those COVID patients with symptoms registering a 10 out of 10 are admitted while the 8's and 9's are treated at home, and down the road hospitals begin to admit the 8's and 9's, the hospitalization raw numbers may reflect more of a plateau as other data points trend downward.

The data is imperfect. We have known that from the outset. But to Pete’s point, we have a few data points we follow over time, among them new cases. New cases have been rising every week for two months. If there was a lab or two behind on processing tests, we have had more than enough time to smooth that out.

You cast aspersions to the new cases datapoint almost to the point you completely disregard it. Why?

What are you suggesting here? Are you suggesting that we ignore 50% weekly gains in new cases entirely? Why and how would that be justifiable? I will answer that: no, to ignore that datapoint would be completely insane.

So are you trying to make the argument that community spread is decreasing or leveling off?

Are you suggesting that we have already peaked in new cases this summer and we are now trending down?

I don’t see how you can make that argument.

Is there any evidence that the numbers are starting to improve in Norman?

They passed a mask ordinance on July 8th, I believe. Should be seeing some early returnz.

The data is imperfect. We have known that from the outset. But to Pete’s point, we have a few data points we follow over time, among them new cases. New cases have been rising every week for two months. If there was a lab or two behind on processing tests, we have had more than enough time to smooth that out.

You cast aspersions to the new cases datapoint almost to the point you completely disregard it. Why?

What are you suggesting here? Are you suggesting that we ignore 50% weekly gains in new cases entirely? Why and how would that be justifiable? I will answer that: no, to ignore that datapoint would be completely insane.

So are you trying to make the argument that community spread is decreasing or leveling off?

Are you suggesting that we have already peaked in new cases this summer and we are now trending down?

I don’t see how you can make that argument.

I’m saying that I’m taking that 50% increase with a grain of salt. Let’s say that half of these 1200 cases were from tests taken 10 days ago. Well, in that scenario, we don’t currently have a 50% increase in cases this week anymore. That number would then affect the daily rate for the day 10 days prior. Therefore, today’s true numbers would effectively be smaller.

I can’t say whether we peaked with this data or not. That’s the entire point. We have to be careful what we interpret from uncorrected daily data. That’s why I like the epidemiology reports. They try to correct the data. Unfortunately, we have to wait a week for that to come out.

I think maybe the disconnect between how we’re looking at this data is that you guys are just looking at total numbers. I’m trying to understand what the true trends are in daily rates. That requires time-corrected data. These daily counts need to be properly assigned to the proper day of testing. That ultimately helps with the trend analysis and determining where we are on our cycle (still climbing, plateau, or dropping).

Something like this could make all our arguments moot. Immediate results from saliva? That could be a game changer for rapid tests. Especially as this one has a 97% sensitivity to detecting the virus. I’ll take one please!!

https://investors.sorrentotherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sorrento-announces-license-columbia-university-rapid-site

Something like this could make all our arguments moot. Immediate results from saliva? That could be a game changer for rapid tests. Especially as this one has a 97% sensitivity to detecting the virus. I’ll take one please!!

https://investors.sorrentotherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sorrento-announces-license-columbia-university-rapid-site

The main issue is that the sensitivity and specificity rates are based on known samples, and not on real people so far (at least not from their posted information). The Abbot Rapid-ID system is in the same ballpark with known samples, but it’s not great in real world applications.

The issue is that in the end the numbers will end up worse because of how samples are obtained, how they are transported, how stable are the samples before you can run the test (rapid tests aren’t as rapid as the name seems to imply. So just by including the human factor it could make it less reliable.

And all of this depends on getting a sample with virus from a person who actually has the virus. My main concern right away with this is that is uses saliva. Especially during the early stages of the disease, saliva is one of the more unreliable sources for virus. NP swaps remain the best source for samples during that time frame. So when you are doing contact tracing and testing folks very early during the disease process it may not be the best approach to use a test that is good at detecting virus if you end up having to use a sample that has the lower chance of having the virus present.

Of course this test could end up getting good numbers, and maybe you can use NP samples and mix it into the solution rather than saliva. Not aiming to be a “this too will fail” person, just voicing some concerns to keep in mind and hoping to see more good progress.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/?fbclid=IwAR01I9SSy2DQdm1USlUsdqNxcPyJj0JUnHW60dP7 ZQW6jp0y3EaBbQ3LRTQ#6d10003519fd