View Full Version : Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)
SoonerDave 07-24-2020, 11:44 AM The delta in daily positives from summary-to-summary for yesterday to today is only 314 cases over some 9,700 tests. This disregards the dashboard numbers and goes only from the OSDH summaries from yesterday and today.
kukblue1 07-24-2020, 11:45 AM I don't want to be overly critical, but do other states have this degree of issues in simply reporting the new numbers? The headline banner says one thing, the dashboard total says another, and the daily increase number implies yet another. It's so frustrating to have conflicting, messed up data everywhere and makes this even harder to track and weakens the public's confidence in the official numbers.
Only 314 new cases. Am I the only one that's not starting to believe in these numbers
PoliSciGuy 07-24-2020, 11:46 AM Per Dillon Richards (https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1286704043440701442)
You will see that the dashboard on coronavirus.health.ok.gov says that 1,147 cases were added today. That is because the dashboard was adding backlogged cases already included in my total. The 7-day average would be at this level regardless of when you add those cases in
Timshel 07-24-2020, 11:48 AM Nm
jdizzle 07-24-2020, 11:50 AM Only 314 new cases. Am I the only one that's not starting to believe in these numbers
Good grief. Quit moving goalposts.
jerrywall 07-24-2020, 11:52 AM Good grief. Quit moving goalposts.
Chill, No one is moving the goalposts.
Its a rather unexpected number which doesn't match up to the trend. It could be just an anomaly and we had a really good day case count wise. But considering the problems with the reporting this week it's absolutely understandable to question if the actual numbers are accurate.
gopokes88 07-24-2020, 11:56 AM Handful of states are even worse
Good grief. Quit moving goalposts.
The irony...
Just 3 weeks ago you said this:
It is not AS concerning the case spikes, when you consider that deaths are not going up, hardly at all. I wonder what the hospitalizations look like today. If they are still relatively low, then I feel we need to stop freaking the heck out EVERY SINGLE DAY over case #s, and start focusing on the hospitalization #s increasing or decreasing.
Now that deaths and hospitalization are strongly trending up, you want to go back to talking about # of new cases just because it went down for one day after breaking record after record??
SoonerDave 07-24-2020, 12:02 PM Chill, No one is moving the goalposts.
Its a rather unexpected number which doesn't match up to the trend. It could be just an anomaly and we had a really good day case count wise. But considering the problems with the reporting this week it's absolutely understandable to question if the actual numbers are accurate.
I may be accused of being a Pollyanna, but I'm going to be optimistic, take the numbers at face value, and hope this is part of a good trend. If we truly have only 314 cases, and a similar number emerges tomorrow, that's hopeful.
oklip955 07-24-2020, 12:09 PM I follow the City of Edmond facebook page. A recent post by the city says that the council will look at and vote on a potential ordinance for face coverings in Edmond city limits at their meeting on Mon July 27, at 5:30pm. Interesting to see how this will go.
rezman 07-24-2020, 12:13 PM Why didn't you get the manager instead of just stepping away?
Good question. I really didn't think of doing that. I already had picked out what I wanted so my only thought was quickly grabbing what I came in for and getting out of there, which actually was part of my side step motion.
My wife told me of being sneezed on by an unmasked Walmart employee a couple days ago. I asked her the same question.
jdizzle 07-24-2020, 12:15 PM The irony...
Just 3 weeks ago you said this:
Now that deaths and hospitalization are strongly trending up, you want to go back to talking about # of new cases just because it went down for one day after breaking record after record??
3 weeks is a long time. I am not making daily complaints about the case #s like the poster I was referencing. Things have changed, so yes, the hospitals filling up is concerning. But when you live and die by the reported #s, then when one is reported that doesn't fit your perception, you say you no longer believe them, just seems like moving them, to me.
But yes, in 3 weeks, the # of hospitalizations has started to truly alarm me. And I hope that the mask mandates enacted recently will help bring that down as we move forward. Hopefully Stitt enacts one statewide.
Florida with 12,400 new cases today.
Almost 1,200 people died yesterday in the U.S.; same the day before. 70,000 new cases yesterday. These are DAILY numbers.
We've had 32 deaths in Oklahoma in just the last 4 days.
All this in the middle of summer when virus transmission should be seasonally almost non-existent.
There are absolutely no signs things are getting better and plenty that indicate the opposite; even plateauing at these crazy rates would represent a nightmare by any objective measure.
You don't have to run around scared out of your mind but it's absurd and irresponsible to try and minimize this situation in any way.
3 weeks is a long time. I am not making daily complaints about the case #s like the poster I was referencing.
The bigger question is: Why did you choose to post about this particular thing when you had clearly stated that deaths and hospitalizations were the real issue?
Now that they are both trending up your contribution is trying to play gotcha with a perceived 'alarmist'.
BoulderSooner 07-24-2020, 12:31 PM it would be interesting to see what the total deaths in the US were for the first half of 2020
Louisana and Arizona about to pass New York with most cases per capita.
Florida rising very fast.
it would be interesting to see what the total deaths in the US were for the first half of 2020
Not what you're asking, but here's some similar perspective:
Covid-19 "will end up as a Top 10 leading cause of death" in 2020, CDC statisticians tell CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/health/covid-rank-leading-cause-of-death-us-bn/index.html)
In 2018, the latest year for which final data is available, the top 10 leading causes of death among all ages in the United States were:
Heart disease (655,381)
Cancer (599,274)
Unintentional injury (167,127)
Chronic lower respiratory disease (159,486)
Stroke (147,810)
Alzheimer's disease (122,019)
Diabetes (84,946)
Flu and pneumonia (59,120)
Nephritis (51,386)
Suicide (48,344)
About 144k have died in the US due to COVID, so far.
TheTravellers 07-24-2020, 03:21 PM Good question. I really didn't think of doing that. I already had picked out what I wanted so my only thought was quickly grabbing what I came in for and getting out of there, which actually was part of my side step motion.
My wife told me of being sneezed on by an unmasked Walmart employee a couple days ago. I asked her the same question.
Gotcha, understandable, if I had all I needed, I'd probably just go, and try to tell the manager about it on my way out... We went to Homeland on 18th/Classen today, and luckily all the customers were masked. Didn't mean to jump on you, but I'm fed completely up with maskholes and will challenge them anytime I see them. If it's in a store, I'll call the manager over and ask them to ask the customer to mask up or leave, and if they don't, then I'll ask the manager to call the police since at that point, it's trespassing. Tired of all the absolute stupidity around this.
Bill Robertson 07-24-2020, 03:44 PM Gotcha, understandable, if I had all I needed, I'd probably just go, and try to tell the manager about it on my way out... We went to Homeland on 18th/Classen today, and luckily all the customers were masked. Didn't mean to jump on you, but I'm fed completely up with maskholes and will challenge them anytime I see them. If it's in a store, I'll call the manager over and ask them to ask the customer to mask up or leave, and if they don't, then I'll ask the manager to call the police since at that point, it's trespassing. Tired of all the absolute stupidity around this.
Where is that damn like button? Especially for the last sentence!
PoliSciGuy 07-24-2020, 04:06 PM Well now, looks like OKC got some attention in an unreleased federal document
The unpublished White House report obtained by us @publicintegrity provides recommendations for the 18 #CovidRedZone states, including Oklahoma. Problem areas identified include Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Miami. (via @kfor)
https://kfor.com/news/federal-report-recommends-roll-back-on-reopening-for-oklahoma-17-other-states/?anvplayer-autoplay=0
Here's the KFOR story: (https://kfor.com/news/federal-report-recommends-roll-back-on-reopening-for-oklahoma-17-other-states/?anvplayer-autoplay=0)
OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) — An unpublished document prepared for the White House coronavirus task force and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, recommends that 18 states in the coronavirus “red zone” for cases should roll back reopening measures amid surging cases, including Oklahoma.
The “red zone” is defined in the 359-page report curated by the nonprofit newsroom as “those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%.”
The report outlines measures counties in the red zone should take. It encourages residents to “wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance.” And it recommends that public officials “close bars and gyms” and “limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer,” which would mean rolling back reopening provisions in these places.
The report comes despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that states reopen and a push to send the nation’s children back to school, even as cases increase.
“Now we’re open, and we want to stay open and we will stay open. We’re not closing. We’ll put out the fires as they come out,” Trump said at a White House event earlier this month.
The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
“There were a number of places in Oklahoma that were identified as problem areas,” Liz Essley Whyte, a reporter with the Center for Public Integrity, told News 4.
Those problem areas include Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Miami.
“The report that we released, there was no, you know, counting up of how many states were in the red zone. We did that ourselves to count them up. There was no comprehensive look at that,” Whyte said.
The report noted Oklahoma had 102 new cases per 100,000 population last week, which was a 47.7% change from the previous week.
The report made several recommendations for Oklahoma’s hot spot areas including a mask mandate, which already exists in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, closing bars and gyms in hot spot counties and limiting indoor dining to 25% capacity.
The report also said the following 11 states are in the red zone for test positivity: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Washington. The 11 states in the red zone for test positivity are also in the red zone for cases, with the exception of Washington state.
Whyte said all of the governors should have received the report. News 4 contacted Governor Stitt’s office.
Here’s what KFOR received in reply:
“The governor and Interim Commissioner of Health Lance Frye cited the White House report when rolling out Oklahoma’s COVID-19 alert system on July 9.
Our four-color alert system is based off of the White House methodology model for new cases per 100,000 population.
With OSDH’s alert system, we added an “orange” risk category that reflects the methodology that the White House has provided. A county is elevated to the “red risk” category if they meet one of four additional gates, as established by OSDH, that would indicate emerging challenges in the delivery of healthcare services. Those gates can by read here.
The governor will continue to monitor recommendations issued by the White House. In the meantime, the governor and OSDH are actively providing local communities with critical data so they can make informed decisions on the local level.”
Timshel 07-24-2020, 04:18 PM This is a couple weeks old, no?
(Not saying it isn't important, just didn't think this is new news....unless there's another previously unreleased document out there.)
kukblue1 07-24-2020, 04:32 PM All I'm saying is we have had over 500 cases for how many days out of the last 21 or so days. Then we only have 314 just like that? Something don't see right or all you anti maskers out there were really really really wrong.
WHO just reported a record number of cases globally for the last 24-hours: over 284,000.
The U.S. contributed fully 25% of those new cases while we only have 4% of the world's population.
pw405 07-24-2020, 07:27 PM Florida with 12,400 new cases today.
...
...
There are absolutely no signs things are getting better and plenty that indicate the opposite; even plateauing at these crazy rates would represent a nightmare by any objective measure.
You don't have to run around scared out of your mind but it's absurd and irresponsible to try and minimize this situation in any way.
About that plateau...
A few weeks back I shared an analysis I stumbled across from my stock market trading circles on Twitter:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1282480454663172096.html
One of the interesting takeaways was the lag between cases increasing & deaths increasing. At the start of the pandemic, we thought this lag time to be about 10 days. This analyst found that post-lockdown, this period was actually closer to 3.5 weeks when looking at the TX and FL data.
I whipped up a graph using OK's Rolling 7 day case counts and deaths counts from June 1st - July 24th.
Low and behold.... for the first 3 weeks of June, cases increased dramatically, yet average daily deaths went down, down, down. Given what we knew from the initial outbreak where we saw a 10 day lag, one wouldn't be too unreasonable to think: "The death rate is lower now". "There is a weaker strain, it's just easier to catch, and only young people are catching it". "The pandemic is behind us, I can't wait to have fun this summer."
But...right at 3.5 weeks, the 7-day average of deaths turns around and starts trending upwards, and continues to trend upward for an entire month.
https://i.imgur.com/pRcQb1G.png
Even if we assume we are at a plateau in new daily cases now (which I do not think we are) - based on the observed behavior of deaths over time - it is reasonable to assume that deaths would continue to trend upward for 3-4 weeks before reaching their plateau.
Perhaps even more concerning: if we assume the 3.5 week lag is correct - that means that the deaths we see today are from a time when 7-day avg. daily cases were around 370. Today, 7-day avg. daily cases are 711.
One can't help but to think: where will avg. daily deaths be in 3.5 weeks?
^
Interesting. Your are quite the data jockey.
And it illustrates the huge problem with the "let everyone get it" approach. By the time we figure out there are a ton new hospitlization and deaths, it will be far too late.
TheTravellers 07-24-2020, 07:40 PM ...
One can't help but to think: where will avg. daily deaths be in 3.5 weeks?
And then Labor Day weekend is coming up right after that 3.5 weeks... Great data, thanks!
Bill Robertson 07-24-2020, 07:46 PM ^
Interesting. Your are quite the data jockey.
And it illustrates the huge problem with the "let everyone get it" approach. By the time we figure out there are a ton new hospitlization and deaths, it will be far too late.Its unbelievable that anyone would still be considering herd immunity. But I know some do. We need to do our best to contain this as much as possible until a vaccine(s) can be proven to work. That’s the only logical course.
Its unbelievable that anyone would still be considering herd immunity. But I know some do. We need to do our best to contain this as much as possible until a vaccine(s) can be proven to work. That’s the only logical course.
It's a catchphrase for the deniers; the people using it typically have no idea what it means or what it will take to get there.
Bill Robertson 07-24-2020, 07:56 PM And then Labor Day weekend is coming up right after that 3.5 weeks... Great data, thanks!Yeah. We can’t skip holiday weekends for one summer for the good of mankind? I can’t believe the number of car shows I’m getting emails about weekly. Casinos are open. Really is throwing your money away that important? And a grade school friend of mine that I keep up with on FB promotes a handful of local rock bands. I get TONS of live music promos every week with pictures of packed houses with no masks in sight. Or I did until I unfollowed him. I just don’t get how people don’t get it. I pray that a vaccine is found because if we have to rely on people looking out for each other to get this thing over with we’re going to be about where we are for a LONG time.
Bill Robertson 07-24-2020, 07:56 PM It's a catchphrase for the deniers; the people using it typically have no idea what it means or what it will take to get there.True
78,000 new cases today in the U.S., a new record.
And another day of near 1,200 deaths. We'll pass 150K by the end of the weekend and there is no sign of this slowing down.
brian72 07-24-2020, 08:15 PM Phase One here we come.
chuck5815 07-24-2020, 08:19 PM Phase One here we come.
Is it time to start hoarding Toilet Paper again?
Bill Robertson 07-24-2020, 08:27 PM I know that in the grand scheme this isn’t a big thing especially when there are people like Pete’s neighbor. But: I read many stories about “recovered” cases having strokes, heart attacks, etc. out of the blue weeks after “recovering”. And I can’t help but be concerned. All afternoon sitting at my desk I felt like I was burning up. Sweating like crazy in a 70 degree office. I would swear I was running a high fever but I took my temp and it was 97.5 which is normal for me. All day today breathing was wheezy for lack of a better word. And this happens 2 or 3 days a week. It sucks. I should buy stock in Musinex because I go through a couple bottles a week. And I know there are people that are much worse.
Bill Robertson 07-24-2020, 08:29 PM Phase One here we come.I don’t see it. Stitt would have to eat an elephant sized crow and I don’t think his ego will tolerate that. And even that would only be here if he sucked it up and went back to Phase One. The country’s numbers are going crazy and Oklahoma can’t change that by ourselves.
C_M_25 07-24-2020, 09:59 PM I know that in the grand scheme this isn’t a big thing especially when there are people like Pete’s neighbor. But: I read many stories about “recovered” cases having strokes, heart attacks, etc. out of the blue weeks after “recovering”. And I can’t help but be concerned. All afternoon sitting at my desk I felt like I was burning up. Sweating like crazy in a 70 degree office. I would swear I was running a high fever but I took my temp and it was 97.5 which is normal for me. All day today breathing was wheezy for lack of a better word. And this happens 2 or 3 days a week. It sucks. I should buy stock in Musinex because I go through a couple bottles a week. And I know there are people that are much worse.
It’s funny that you say this. I felt the same way in my office a few days this week. I had a normal temperature too. I think a lot of this was related to the humidity we have been seeing.
brian72 07-24-2020, 10:02 PM Is it time to start hoarding Toilet Paper again? Been hoarding TP since 1987. I rotate the older stash for Kindling, and makeshift face masks.
LocoAko 07-24-2020, 10:51 PM One can't help but to think: where will avg. daily deaths be in 3.5 weeks?
Right around the time schools will be trying to reopen. Sigh.
Bill Robertson 07-25-2020, 06:43 AM It’s funny that you say this. I felt the same way in my office a few days this week. I had a normal temperature too. I think a lot of this was related to the humidity we have been seeing.Weather might be a part but this has been pretty consistent since March. This morning I feel absolutely normal. Hopefully this is a trend.
Bill Robertson 07-25-2020, 09:36 AM What a morning so far. I go to Homeland. Everyone wearing masks properly. YAY!!! No one pays any attention to one way aisles but I can work around that. Then I go outside and put the stuff in the trunk. Along with my keys and the cards which I have been doing to sanitize them before I open the car door. Then I shut the trunk. Keys inside. I can’t go back in the store because my mask is also in the trunk. So here I am in a pandemic asking this nice older (my age) guy if he’ll call my wife to come let me in the car. It all worked out and it won’t happen again!
RustytheBailiff 07-25-2020, 10:26 AM It's a catchphrase for the deniers; the people using it typically have no idea what it means or what it will take to get there.
Herd immunity doesn't work if the disease can infect people once they have had it once.
STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS
RustytheBailiff 07-25-2020, 10:28 AM Per the New York Times:
At least 7 new coronavirus deaths and 1,147 new cases were reported in Oklahoma on July 24. Over the past week, there have been an average of 711 cases per day, an increase of 24 percent from the average two weeks earlier.
STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS
jonny d 07-25-2020, 10:34 AM Per the New York Times:
At least 7 new coronavirus deaths and 1,147 new cases were reported in Oklahoma on July 24. Over the past week, there have been an average of 711 cases per day, an increase of 24 percent from the average two weeks earlier.
STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS
Not sure why this number keeps coming up. It was a little more than 300 yesterday. Like, 314.
Not sure why this number keeps coming up. It was a little more than 300 yesterday. Like, 314.
The 1,147 was shown on the OK Dept of Health dashboard but it was actually a combo of the last 2 days.
PoliSciGuy 07-25-2020, 10:53 AM It was a backlog, so those cases are from different days over the last week. The 314 were tests that were reported yesterday.
965 new cases today; a record for a Saturday.
7-day rolling average is 718 cases/per day.
12 more people have died.
44 deaths in just the last 5 days.
kukblue1 07-25-2020, 11:12 AM 965 new cases today.
12 more people have died.
44 deaths in just the last 5 days.
314 yesterday yeah right. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again today I'm starting not to believe these numbers
314 yesterday yeah right. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again today I'm starting not to believe these numbers
That's why rolling averages and trends are important.
LocoAko 07-25-2020, 11:15 AM 314 yesterday yeah right. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again today I'm starting not to believe these numbers
I definitely don't think there's some sort of conspiracy at the state health department, but the processing of tests certainly makes any one day's total a lot less meaningful.
7-day average death rate is nearing the peak we had in April.
https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1287058243894771713
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdyMf5OXkAEL0xE?format=png&name=900x900
jccouger 07-25-2020, 11:24 AM What a morning so far. I go to Homeland. Everyone wearing masks properly. YAY!!! No one pays any attention to one way aisles but I can work around that. Then I go outside and put the stuff in the trunk. Along with my keys and the cards which I have been doing to sanitize them before I open the car door. Then I shut the trunk. Keys inside. I can’t go back in the store because my mask is also in the trunk. So here I am in a pandemic asking this nice older (my age) guy if he’ll call my wife to come let me in the car. It all worked out and it won’t happen again!
I know how that goes. Im a major creature of habit & changing anything in my routine has really thrown me off. Ive lost my credit card 3 times since this all has started because I remove it from my wallet so I dont have to touch my wallet in a store and then I misplace it.
dankrutka 07-25-2020, 11:26 AM Herd immunity doesn't work if the disease can infect people once they have had it once.
While herd immunity isn't—and shouldn't—happen without a vaccine, we need to quit spreading the idea people will/can get reinfected. While it may defer depending on severity and there's still more to learn, most experts do believe you gain immunity after having COVID-19.
d-usa 07-25-2020, 11:27 AM I noticed that some test sites have weird hours and days. Walmart, as an example, seems to have testing only Mon/Wed/Fri. If enough places have little quirks like that, it can make daily numbers seem wonky. More so once that is combined with the different delays in processing from different labs. Labs also process different samples at different priorities, so samples from hospitalized patients get processed earlier than asymptomatic people getting tested for exposures. This means that people more likely to be positives get results earlier, which can drive up the percentage of positives, but if that really is one of the driving forces it would be worrying that there are enough people sick to drive the numbers that much.
The delays on test results are also significant once they hit 10 days or more, since many people might already be past the illness and the ability to spread the virus by then.
One encouraging thing I’ve seen at my institution, which has also just been updated in CDC guidance, is that people who continue to test positive for long times do not seem to be infectious to anybody after the initial 14 days.
d-usa 07-25-2020, 11:31 AM While herd immunity isn't—and shouldn't—happening without a vaccine, we need to quit spreading the idea people will/can get reinfected. While it may defer depending on severity and there's still more to learn, most experts do believe you gain immunity after having COVID-19.
There have been cases of people being sick, getting better, and then being sick again and sometimes even more sick. Some test positive, then negative, then positive again later when they get sicker.
With intermittent shedding it isn’t that unusual to have late positive tests. I’ve personally seen people who were positive in April still (or again) being positive in July.
Without genetic analysis of samples at both points in time it is hard to determine if it is two separate infections. But the prevailing thought is that the “reinfection” is more likely to be a reactivation of the virus. We see that in many other viral diseases. And if that is the case, it makes the “just get it and get over with, most cases are mild” approach even more dangerous. Especially with the push to get kids back in school because they “only” get “mild” COVID-19.
RustytheBailiff 07-25-2020, 11:58 AM While herd immunity isn't—and shouldn't—happen without a vaccine, we need to quit spreading the idea people will/can get reinfected. While it may defer depending on severity and there's still more to learn, most experts do believe you gain immunity after having COVID-19.
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/24/covid-reinfection
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
Perhaps we should quit spreading the rumors that people cannot get reinfected -- it looks like the jury is still out. From the CDC is appears they are leaning towards short term immunity -- but not necessarily long-term. \
STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS
TheTravellers 07-25-2020, 12:40 PM Weather might be a part but this has been pretty consistent since March. This morning I feel absolutely normal. Hopefully this is a trend.
Allergies could be it, too. Wife and I have had some bad sniffling, sneezing, snot, sometimes get hot, etc. Our cat actually shows signs when our allergies are bad - she'll start being itchy, scratching and cleaning herself way more than normal and when we get better, she stops too, kinda weird.
TheTravellers 07-25-2020, 12:42 PM What a morning so far. I go to Homeland. Everyone wearing masks properly. YAY!!! No one pays any attention to one way aisles but I can work around that. Then I go outside and put the stuff in the trunk. Along with my keys and the cards which I have been doing to sanitize them before I open the car door. Then I shut the trunk. Keys inside. I can’t go back in the store because my mask is also in the trunk. So here I am in a pandemic asking this nice older (my age) guy if he’ll call my wife to come let me in the car. It all worked out and it won’t happen again!
Ouch, man, I feel for ya, I did that once, but I had AAA at the time, so they came out and unlocked the door so I could pop the trunk. Not sure if your Homeland does it, but the 18th/Classen one had a sign at the door to ask their greeter for a mask if you didn't have one. Hopefully that won't happen again, but for future reference....
OKCRT 07-25-2020, 01:36 PM There have been cases of people being sick, getting better, and then being sick again and sometimes even more sick. Some test positive, then negative, then positive again later when they get sicker.
With intermittent shedding it isn’t that unusual to have late positive tests. I’ve personally seen people who were positive in April still (or again) being positive in July.
Without genetic analysis of samples at both points in time it is hard to determine if it is two separate infections. But the prevailing thought is that the “reinfection” is more likely to be a reactivation of the virus. We see that in many other viral diseases. And if that is the case, it makes the “just get it and get over with, most cases are mild” approach even more dangerous. Especially with the push to get kids back in school because they “only” get “mild” COVID-19.
If that turns out to be the norm then we are all pretty much screwed. That to me sounds like it's mutating and people can get it over and over as it changes. Almost sounds like one of the virus movies where terrorists make a deadly virus and release it upon the population.
DowntownMan 07-25-2020, 02:26 PM Blue zoo at quail has no social distancing happening to get into this place. Just tried walking into the mall to be greeted by their line of over 100 people standing neck to neck waiting to get in.
Unfortunately you have to walk thru their crowd of people to come in that entrance to the mall
PoliSciGuy 07-25-2020, 02:29 PM Let's throttle back a bit here. If reinfection can happen, it's blessedly rare. If it was widespread, we'd be seeing a significant uptick in places that were already hit hard (NYC, Italy, etc.), but we don't see that. What reinfections we do see are rare or are later confirmed to just be remnants of the virus from an earlier infection.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/22/can-you-get-coronavirus-twice/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/health/covid-antibodies-herd-immunity.html
What mutations we've seen from the virus are relatively benign and this is a remarkably stable virus. There is no sign that our vaccine work will be derailed by a mutation at this stage. In nature, when viruses do mutate they usually lose their potency through an effect known as Mueller's Ratchet
https://biodesign.asu.edu/news/meltdown-can-we-push-sars-cov-2-evolutionary-cliff
dankrutka 07-25-2020, 02:32 PM My point in my last post is not that people can’t be reinfected—the science is out—but that we should be careful in making it seem like reinfection will be normal or typical.
Here’s a good explanation on why herd immunity is largely unachievable: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/24/894148860/without-a-vaccine-researchers-say-herd-immunity-may-never-be-achieved
|
|