228 today. Looks like tomorrow there will be a COVID19 update from the governor at 2pm.

I'm sure he'll say all is fine cuz when you have a load number like this it helps your 7-Day average. What if we have 500 tomorrow your 7-Day average is still going to look good because of the low number today

I don't recall them having to be compelled. From what was reported at the time, they stopped once the Governor's emergency powers expired due to legal/privacy concerns, and resumed once the AG's office cleared them to continue. Is there more to the story I haven't seen?

They publicly announced they were going to stop releasing certain data, and then, after a phone call from the AG, they did a dustup and announced they would continue to release the same data.

They publicly announced they were going to stop releasing certain data, and then, after a phone call from the AG, they did a dustup and announced they would continue to release the same data.

Maybe they're dressing it up, but it seems less like they were compelled to do anything, and more that they suspended releasing data after the emergency powers ended until they received an opinion from the AG. That's why I was curious if there was more to the story.


I appreciate OSDH Interim Commissioner Lance Frye and Secretary of Health Jerome Loughridge, for bringing this matter to the attention of my office for review

http://www.oag.ok.gov/attorney-general-hunter-advises-health-department-to-release-data

Maybe they're dressing it up, but it seems less like they were compelled to do anything, and more that they suspended releasing data after the emergency powers ended until they received an opinion from the AG. That's why I was curious if there was more to the story.



http://www.oag.ok.gov/attorney-general-hunter-advises-health-department-to-release-data

You may be right, but that is just PR speak.

OK. Final question: do you think the state has declined to a 2% positive testing rate? Yes or no.

I won't give an absolute answer because I don't have enough information to make an absolute conclusion either way. We don't have current total tests returned, and won't until tomorrow. So whether I think we are at 2% is irrelevant; the data says only that the positive test rate after Friday was 2%. We have new positives from Sunday, but no delta in tests returned, so a current calculation isn't possible right now.

I very much want to find out

You may be right, but that is just PR speak.

The only data they initially stopped reporting was zip-code and facility breakdown data. The gross numbers for positives, tests returned, etc. was never at issue if I recall correctly.

The only data they initially stopped reporting was zip-code and facility breakdown data. The gross numbers for positives, tests returned, etc. was never at issue if I recall correctly.

That was my understanding as well. They were just being overly cautious on how they aggregate data due to the law.

Found this to be interesting. Self-reported symptom tracker by county or zip code

https://okomes.cloud.looker.com/embed/dashboards-next/12

I’m surprised we’re not seeing more Ds and Hs given the record number of cases.

Are these cases being caught by young folks, or is the CV just getting weak AF?

I’m surprised we’re not seeing more Ds and Hs given the record number of cases.

Are these cases being caught by young folks, or is the CV just getting weak AF?

Deaths and Hospitalizations lag. Folks that catch it in week 1 won't be hospitalized until week 2/3 and those that pass usually do so 3/4 weeks after first developing symptoms.

I’m surprised we’re not seeing more Ds and Hs given the record number of cases.

Are these cases being caught by young folks, or is the CV just getting weak AF?

Some of it is young folk factor, some of it is death lag. We also weren't testing enough in the early days of the pandemic and missed a lot of cases. This is the biggest explanation in my opinion.

Deaths and Hospitalizations lag. Folks that catch it in week 1 won't be hospitalized until week 2/3 and those that pass usually do so 3/4 weeks after first developing symptoms.

the spike started in earnest on June 15. So, no, i’m not buying the death lag argument.

Seems like we’ve got a weaker virus, more testing, and positives skewing younger — or some combination thereof.

the spike started in earnest on June 15. So, no, i’m not buying the death lag argument.

Seems like we’ve got a weaker virus, more testing, and positives skewing younger — or some combination thereof.

Median length of time from symptom onset to death is 18 days (https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/). June 15th was 14 days ago. Do the math.

We won't see April-like numbers (thank god) due to young folks being the most infected, but the death numbers will go up especially around the 4th of July.

the spike started in earnest on June 15. So, no, i’m not buying the death lag argument.

Seems like we’ve got a weaker virus, more testing, and positives skewing younger — or some combination thereof.

It is skewed toward younger people this round, data on that is pretty clear. I think if we actually knew about covid earlier and were actually aggressively testing, Feb -March would have looked like what were seeing now. More younger people having it.

According to OSDH Epidemiology Reports the median for symptom onset to hospitalization is 6 days and the median for symptom onset to death is 14 days.

Facemask order for Kansas starting Friday. Use of mask in all public settings.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html

Facemask order for Kansas starting Friday. Use of mask in all public settings.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html
Good for them. Hopefully enough states will do this that it this will spread everywhere.

Reshuffling the cabinet secretaries of health and mental health, and of Science. Sorry to see Dr. Kayse Shrum exit. She was an asset that was not deployed often enough. The OSU Health Sciences Center is lucky to have her.

Facemask order for Kansas starting Friday. Use of mask in all public settings.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html

Had eye exam today. Place i go takes walk ins and next to eyemart express. Was there 10am. Sign said must have mask however it was 50/50 people walking into eyemart express. I had to wait out in the car. There was one time the tech had her mask down around her chin while she was adjusting the machine. I just turned my head but who know what germs she got all over the eye machine. Glad i had my sanitizer and wore my mask the whole. i hope it helped. People just don't think about it do they.

Had eye exam today. Place i go takes walk ins and next to eyemart express. Was there 10am. Sign said must have mask however it was 50/50 people walking into eyemart express. I had to wait out in the car. There was one time the tech had her mask down around her chin while she was adjusting the machine. I just turned my head but who know what germs she got all over the eye machine. Glad i had my sanitizer and wore my mask the whole. i hope it helped. People just don't think about it do they.

You needed an eye exam during a pandemic that badly?

Reshuffling the cabinet secretaries of health and mental health, and of Science. Sorry to see Dr. Kayse Shrum exit. She was an asset that was not deployed often enough. The OSU Health Sciences Center is lucky to have her.

Hard to imagine a guy who 10 months ago with no experience in health becoming Secretary of Health. I guess the learning curve for an accountant was pretty steep. I wonder what conversations went on between the Guv and Shrum and Loughridge.

You needed an eye exam during a pandemic that badly?

I almost cancelled it but you also can't let your heath go to **** also. I had an echo-gram last week . It's kind of a double edge sword though. Do you go do you not go? This isn't going away anytime soon we are going to have to learn to life with it. Wearing mask and being aware of who your coming into contact with is going to be the new normal for a while unfortunately

There's been a real cascade of local restaurants/bars closing now or going back to curbside only, either due to a positive test or as a precaution.

I've seen...
Picasso Cafe
Oso
Blue Seven
Chick N Beer
Tamashii Ramen (positive case)
Social Capital (positive case)
Pump Bar (positive case)
Bunker Club
Sunnyside Diner (Edmond) (positive case)
R&J Supper Lounge
Bellini's (positive case)
McClintock Saloon and Chophouse
Eagle One Pizza (Moore)
HiLo Club (positive case)
Lost Highway Bar (positive case)
Revolucion
ZamZam Mediterranean Grill
The Indigo Attic
Hamilton Supperette
Red Cup Cafe
En Croute
The Press (positive case)
Flashback RetroPub
RedPrime Steakhouse (positive case)

Overall hospitalizations in OK have fallen since Friday, down to 315 from 329

https://twitter.com/pmonies/status/1277733078136500231

I almost cancelled it but you also can't let your heath go to **** also. I had an echo-gram last week . It's kind of a double edge sword though. Do you go do you not go? This isn't going away anytime soon we are going to have to learn to life with it. Wearing mask and being aware of who your coming into contact with is going to be the new normal for a while unfortunately

Seems terribly irresponsible reason to be out given the current increase in positive cases.

I know right. That was the 6th building other than work i have been in since mid May. Napa, Meat Market, Dollar General, Home Depot, Echo, Eye Doctor. God that's pretty sad. I need to go somewhere and do something. UGH

15 deaths 49 or younger. If I take that and dived it by total of confirmed cases in that age group i come up with a death rate of 0.1. Is it really that low. Also that is just on confirmed cases i'm sure more have had it and never tested. Let's protect our older population. Hopefully they younger crowd getting it right now understands that.

Facemask order for Kansas starting Friday. Use of mask in all public settings.

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article243879982.html
Glad to see this. It aint a "liberal thing" to wear a mask. Wearing a mask gets our small businesses back in business rather than making this crap last way longer than it needs to. We need to get the numbers down and masks are likely going to be the only way to do it.

Goldman Sachs says a national mask mandate could slash infections and save economy from a 5% hit

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/goldman-sachs-says-a-national-mask-mandate-could-slash-infections-and-save-economy-from-a-5percent-hit.html

Last nights posted EOR shows only about 500 pending rest results. If this isn’t another typo then they are staying caught up much better.

Last nights posted EOR shows only about 500 pending rest results. If this isn’t another typo then they are staying caught up much better.

I looked at that EOR as well (for 6/29) and it showed a number for total completed tests of 343,623. This is a delta of 15,941 tests, and a delta in positives over the same period of 530 (13,172-12,642).

That yields an "over the weekend" positive test rate of 530/(343,623-327682) or 3.3%.

I know this is unscientific and means nothing. But. The NBA has had 16 positive tests of the 302 they had test results for on the 26th. That’s 5%. Then we know of a handful of players from the 22 teams that have had it already. Then we have few college football teams that have had double digit positives out of about 100 players each. Clemson has 37 positives. Then ask how many players had it already that didn’t know at all. Could the number of past and current infections, at least in areas, be much higher than the experts think?

I know this is unscientific and means nothing. But. The NBA has had 16 positive tests of the 302 they had test results for on the 26th. That’s 5%. Then we know of a handful of players from the 22 teams that have had it already. Then we have few college football teams that have had double digit positives out of about 100 players each. Clemson has 37 positives. Then ask how many players had it already that didn’t know at all. Could the number of past and current infections, at least in areas, be much higher than the experts think?
The experts already think the numbers are much higher.

I know this is unscientific and means nothing. But. The NBA has had 16 positive tests of the 302 they had test results for on the 26th. That’s 5%. Then we know of a handful of players from the 22 teams that have had it already. Then we have few college football teams that have had double digit positives out of about 100 players each. Clemson has 37 positives. Then ask how many players had it already that didn’t know at all. Could the number of past and current infections, at least in areas, be much higher than the experts think?

There was an article I saw recently that basically said that they think a lot more people have actually had it than we realize, whether that be people who never got tested who showed symptoms or people who were asymptomatic and didn't get tested. I don't remember what that estimated number was but it was pretty high.

I have a relative in Texas who was supposed to have a skin thing removed and they tested him as a precaution and he ended up being positive even though he didn't show any symptoms at all. He's still doing fine a few days later and hopefully it stays that way (knock on wood).

The CDC thinks we are currently undermeasuring the actual case numbers by a factor of 10, which is bad for containing the thing but good for understanding the low hospitalization rate and mortality rate

The CDC thinks we are currently undermeasuring the actual case numbers by a factor of 10, which is bad for containing the thing but good for understanding the low hospitalization rate and mortality rate

Why bad? If the death and hospitalization #s are "accurate" then if it a factor of 10, what % of the US already has had it, or has it currently?

Why bad? If the death and hospitalization #s are "accurate" then if it a factor of 10, what % of the US already has had it, or has it currently?

Roughly 2.7 million x 10= 27 million
Population of U.S. roughly 330 million
27/330=8.2% of U.S. population not evenly geographically distributed
Long way to go to herd immunity (assuming antibodies persist in those previously infected)

The good thing about the 10x notion is that IFR (infection fatality rate) is significantly lower than had been suspected initially. If literally millions have had this with no or *minimal* symptoms, the focus should obviously be on those who are at worst risk. It's all a matter of gaining knowledge and data.

585 today. :eek: Hopefully the big increase can be explained by some mitigating factors. Will be interested to see how the rest of the week goes. Had been expecting a big number at some point but the last couple days were starting to make me a bit more optimistic. Not so much now, unless there are good reasons for the increase.

My God.

That is the first 500+ day and now brings the 7-day average to the highest it has ever been.

Interested to see what Stitt says at 2pm.

Yep, 585 new cases today; the previous record was 482.

And typically, Wed-Fri bring the biggest numbers of the week.

2 more people died.

The 7-day rolling average is now pushing 400 cases a day.

4.4% positive rate.

585 today. :eek: Hopefully the big increase can be explained by some mitigating factors. Will be interested to see how the rest of the week goes. Had been expecting a big number at some point but the last couple days were starting to make me a bit more optimistic. Not so much now, unless there are good reasons for the increase.

Not shocked one bit I knew we were going to hit over 500 this this week but our politicians will get on the air and be like our 7-Day average is lower than what it was 7 days ago everything is fine. thats because we had low numbers on Monday and that's the only reason 7 day avg will look good

It is not AS concerning the case spikes, when you consider that deaths are not going up, hardly at all. I wonder what the hospitalizations look like today. If they are still relatively low, then I feel we need to stop freaking the heck out EVERY SINGLE DAY over case #s, and start focusing on the hospitalization #s increasing or decreasing.

The least we can do is close down bars and gyms. I think we should do a mask mandate too. Kansas just ordered one.

Not only is this not going to get better on its own, it's just going to get worse so we have to do something.

Hospitalizations are up to late April/Early May levels but still well below capacity so that is good.

I just hope contact tracers are finding where these cases are coming from and the OK gov can make some recommendations to stem the rise. Hospitalizations generally take a while to occur so I tend to think what they will look like in a week or two from big case days.

Yep, 585 new cases today; the previous record was 482.

And typically, Wed-Fri bring the biggest numbers of the week.

2 more people died.


That is a big number, but I've heard that the positive cases being reported now include positive antibody tests. Can anyone confirm this? This would be important if it is the case. That would mean that there are not 585 new ACTIVE cases.

It is not AS concerning the case spikes, when you consider that deaths are not going up, hardly at all. I wonder what the hospitalizations look like today. If they are still relatively low, then I feel we need to stop freaking the heck out EVERY SINGLE DAY over case #s, and start focusing on the hospitalization #s increasing or decreasing.

You do realize that hospitalizations and deaths often lag behind positive test by weeks, right? We’re already seeing hospitalizations rise slightly from the numbers a week or two ago. A week or two from now is when I would expect to see the impacts from today’s numbers. That’s why everyone freaks out over daily numbers. However, I feel like we should be looking at daily percentage positive. It’s a much better diagnostic.

stop freaking the heck out EVERY SINGLE DAY over case #s

Yes, people should definitely wait to freak out until a lot more people die.

I've mentioned this before but it's worth reiterating that this disease has already shown to have long-term serious health effects on "recovered" patients and those with "mild" cases. Things they may end up dealing with for the rest of their lives. And this isn't just for people over 60's, this is for people in their 20's and 30's. That's why I think it's a mistake to only be worried about the deaths number.

We simply don't know enough about the long-term effects of this virus to be okay with millions of people getting it, even if they don't die or go to the hospital.

The U.S. will soon have over 3 million positive tests and we're setting new records almost every day now.

There are good reasons other developed countries have worked so hard to shut this thing down, and here we are with the most resources in the world getting banned from traveling to the EU because we can't get our act together.

You do realize that hospitalizations and deaths often lag behind positive test by weeks, right? We’re already seeing hospitalizations rise slightly from the numbers a week or two ago. A week or two from now is when I would expect to see the impacts from today’s numbers. That’s why everyone freaks out over daily numbers. However, I feel like we should be looking at daily percentage positive. It’s a much better diagnostic.

Yeah, we are 4 months in to this you’d think it would be common knowledge deaths always lag cases spikes.

But I will say it does seem like hospitals are getting better at treating patients to at least prevent deaths.

There's something a bit off in the daily summary. In the EOR for 6/29, they indicated 343,623 tests completed. But in *today's* summary, they show the same number of tests completed. That implies no new tests completed Monday, which obviously doesn't make sense. Hope this is clarified.

Yeah, we are 4 months in to this you’d think it would be common knowledge deaths always lag cases spikes.

But I will say it does seem like hospitals are getting better at treating patients to at least prevent deaths.

Agreed. They are doing a much better job. There has also been some fringe reports that covid may be losing its potency. I really hope that’s true.

Agreed. They are doing a much better job. There has also been some fringe reports that covid may be losing its potency. I really hope that’s true.

There were reports from Italy about twomor three weeks ago in which a doctor claimed to have seen newer cases of COVD to have a consistently lower impact on newer patients, and he theorized that COVD had mutated to a form with less severe effects. He was immediately criticized by media outlets for expressing that sentiment, even though it was clear to me he was not stating it as some scientifically proven fact. It was observational on his part. I've heard nothing more on this notion since that time.

There were reports from Italy about twomor three weeks ago in which a doctor claimed to have seen newer cases of COVD to have a consistently lower impact on newer patients, and he theorized that COVD had mutated to a form with less severe effects. He was immediately criticized by media outlets for expressing that sentiment, even though it was clear to me he was not stating it as some scientifically proven fact. It was observational on his part. I've heard nothing more on this notion since that time.

There have been other reports out of Europe and I believe somewhere on the east coast of the same phenomenon more recently. I’ll see if I can dig up the articles.

This article can be read in a number of ways.....
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584

So are we still on the "no false positive tests" and "most positive antibody tests are false" trains?

There is an interesting article on fivethirtyeight.com that tracks several models predicting the number of deaths going forward. The slope of the graph does not appear to be moderating very much to me. The article allows one to check to see which model is tracking more accurately. Today it is showing the estimates for July 25. If you go back to June 1 on the graph, it gave predictions for June 27. Many forecast very closely to the actual on that day.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?cid=rrpromo