I was going to post this. Good info.


Holt was questioned on that by someone who had literally checked their family member into an OKC hospital the day before. Also some people questioned why he only included OK County in his discussion when previously he included Canadian and Cleveland.

Regardless, at least he is addressing the topic, and genuinely seems tp care about our health, unlike that phony Bynum.

Yikes....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaudwvvX0AEQ5Hv?format=jpg&name=medium

The Tulsa County Health Department guy said yesterday that we have transitioned from isolated outbreaks to community spread. He also said hospitalizations lag behind for up to two weeks so I think we can predict what is happening. Our new cases have risen 100% in a week and a half. Not much you can do to paper over that.

The stupid will get it. Some will die. Many stupid people will spread it to people doing their best to take precautions, and just as bad, people who have no choice to encounter these Covidiots because of their jobs.

It should come as common sense that unless there's a vaccine, Covid-19 is here to stay. The only way to have stopped it would have been in Wuhan. Once it got out, it was over with. The only other way to stop it would be to lock everyone in the world up in their houses and let it take it's toll there. Thankfully that's not going to happen. This thing is global. It will continue to spread until it attacks everyone who it can, and then it will slowly dissipate.

Are we forgetting the point of the flatten the curve and the shutdown? The purpose was to not overwhelm the hospitals back in March/April by slowing the spread. The same amount of people projected to get the virus was the same with the flattened curve and the bell curve.

Of course there is going to be a rise in cases. This is model was based on the CDC back in March. The curve rises as it goes to be right after the shutdown Was over and the hospitals were supposed to be not overwhelmed. The hospitals are still not overwhelmed.

I am sure I will get flamed in here that I want everyone to die. We are moving the goal posts from the purpose of flattening the curve.

https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help

Are we forgetting the point of the flatten the curve and the shutdown? The purpose was to not overwhelm the hospitals back in March/April by slowing the spread. The same amount of people projected to get the virus was the same with the flattened curve and the bell curve.

Of course there is going to be a rise in cases. This is model was based on the CDC back in March. The curve rises as it goes to be right after the shutdown Was over and the hospitals were supposed to be not overwhelmed. The hospitals are still not overwhelmed.

I am sure I will get flamed in here that I want everyone to die. We are moving the goal posts from the purpose of flattening the curve.

https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help

Exactly! Flattening the curve was to not overwhelm the hospitals. If you think you can shut down the country and the world for that matter, for long enough so that this goes away, you're in a fantasy world. By the time you open back up, there won't be a 21st century civilization left. Unfortunately, C19 is something we just have to deal with until it runs it's course.

Exactly! Flattening the curve was to not overwhelm the hospitals. If you think you can shut down the country and the world for that matter, for long enough so that this goes away, you're in a fantasy world. By the time you open back up, there won't be a 21st century civilization left. Unfortunately, C19 is something we just have to deal with until it runs it's course.

This is true, but we can still make smarter choices until then, like not packing 20-60k people into an event center.

While it's good that we prevented our hospitals from being overwhelmed, we also did the shutdown as a way of buying ourselves some time and coming up with a plan since cases will go up to some degree when we reopen. We can try to achieve some sense of normalcy as long as people are taking appropriate precautions but a lot of people are not wearing masks like they should and then all of the work we did to flatten the curve was for nothing and we'll be right back in the same position that we were before.

I'm not trying to be a doom and gloomer and hopefully we can keep the numbers at a manageable level but I'm not exactly encouraged by the fact that we're seeing higher numbers than we've seen before with this thing.

He is a thought to stop the virus. WEAR A MASK. It has worked in other countries. Really not that hard to do. Stay home order take out and support business that way. Do car side pickup. Things can remain open we just need to be smarter how we are going about our day.

It should come as common sense that unless there's a vaccine, Covid-19 is here to stay. The only way to have stopped it would have been in Wuhan. Once it got out, it was over with. The only other way to stop it would be to lock everyone in the world up in their houses and let it take it's toll there. Thankfully that's not going to happen. This thing is global. It will continue to spread until it attacks everyone who it can, and then it will slowly dissipate.

There are numerous peer-reviewed articles that make it clear that with social distancing and mask usage, transmissions can be reduced to almost nil. Please consider this. We don't have to "shut down and hide" or any other such thing.

However, if people continue flouting basic social distancing, we are going to face the possibility of other shutdowns in the future.

Just do your part.

Exactly! Flattening the curve was to not overwhelm the hospitals. If you think you can shut down the country and the world for that matter, for long enough so that this goes away, you're in a fantasy world. By the time you open back up, there won't be a 21st century civilization left. Unfortunately, C19 is something we just have to deal with until it runs it's course.

Unfortunately the "What, me worry?" attitude in this country is a losing proposition. Looking at the downward trend in Italy compared to here is telling. The inability to get a unified message on how to proceed is huge.
Compare the USA to the EU and the future is not good. But hey you make your own conclusion.

Are we forgetting the point of the flatten the curve and the shutdown? The purpose was to not overwhelm the hospitals back in March/April by slowing the spread. The same amount of people projected to get the virus was the same with the flattened curve and the bell curve.

Of course there is going to be a rise in cases. This is model was based on the CDC back in March. The curve rises as it goes to be right after the shutdown Was over and the hospitals were supposed to be not overwhelmed. The hospitals are still not overwhelmed.

I am sure I will get flamed in here that I want everyone to die. We are moving the goal posts from the purpose of flattening the curve.

https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help

Not moving any goalposts. The shutdown *or whatever version of it we did here in Oklahoma * prevented a massive overtaxing of not just our hospitals, but also PPE for our medical providers. It worked.

Again, not moving goalposts, but the characteristic of this virus when it is quickly spreading is that it starts to spread exponentially, and that is where you can get in trouble with medical resources.

And to correct your point, there were two goalposts outlined, and I'm fairly sure our own governor used both: One was "bend the curve," and the other was "flatten the curve." We chose to reopen the state at the peak, and then we saw a modest decrease in new cases for about a month.

We certainly did not "bend the curve," as other states and countries did. And now, our cases are not just growing, they are spiking.

It's too soon to conclude this will not impact hospitalizations and deaths.

Please stop misrepresenting what people are saying. Literally no one in the last two or three weeks has advocated shutting down. Why even say that? It is like gaslighting.

People are concerned that so many people are flouting the basic social distancing and mask wearing requests. WHY IS IT SO HARD FOR PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE CAN DO THE THINGS WE WANT TO DO WITHOUT SHUTTING DOWN IF WE TAKE BASIC SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND FOLLOW SIMPLE GUIDELINES? Sorry to yell but it is ****ing insane.

This is true, but we can still make smarter choices until then, like not packing 20-60k people into an event center.

But Laura Ingraham will tell you that Trump should have no health concerns about the virus, because they are bunk: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/laura-ingraham-fauci-donald-trump-rally_n_5ee8661dc5b6b735a648667c?section=politics&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=hp_fb_pages&utm_source=politics_fb&ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000013&fbclid=IwAR1ZJWp6vII62CTD8tY9P4pZFs6xPahcc_cyGSDcy 0TkX612vIj6NeFHbJE

I went into Penn square the other day and almost 70 percent I'd say were not wearing masks and/or were not distancing. It's as if some people think "well everything is open again, so no more masks and everything's back to normal!".

There has been multiple times in the last few weeks out in public when I forgot a pandemic is even happening. Because all of the reminders are missing. Most everyone is back to work in the office, service industry is relatively open, social distancing is practiced very poorly, patrons and staff are not wearing masks.

If OKC was simply required to wear a mask, it would at least provide as a reminder which in turn maybe help deter other poor practices and maybe even keep some people home.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-coronavirus-orlando-airport-testing-desantis-20200617-ypofaadnsnarbj254vtiwivnrq-story.html Over half the workers sick since mid March. This virus is strange. Amazing how you never heard of fast food workers getting sick. Or any kind of outbreak at a supermarket. SMH Could this be why some people just don't care. I'm sure there be many food service workers that have it if they got tested. I think people don't take it seriously cause they don't know anyone that has been sick which probably isn't the case. They been sick they just don't know they been sick.

Holt was questioned on that by someone who had literally checked their family member into an OKC hospital the day before. Also some people questioned why he only included OK County in his discussion when previously he included Canadian and Cleveland.

Regardless, at least he is addressing the topic, and genuinely seems tp care about our health, unlike that phony Bynum.

Bynum has addressed it multiple times and has been accused by both sides of playing to the otherside (being way too strict or way too easy on the lock down). He's pretty much played the middle up until now, and now he's being lambasted by everyone who had previously been raving about how great of job he'd been doing compared to other state leaders (and conveniently over a Trump rally).

I don't really understand how Bynum is a phony. He's been a very good mayor for Tulsa by about every measure, especially when it comes to promoting Tulsa, Tulsa, history bringing more attention to the race massacres/riots and trying to build bridges in the community and state. He is literally in an impossible position right now.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-woman-battling-coronavirus-again/2389265/

So much for the "let's all just get out there and get COVID so we can all get this over with" argument.

I'd be careful about drawing sweeping conclusions from this story. There's decent evidence that COVID-19 produces anti-bodies and even doctors in the story express different hypotheses for this case.

Not moving any goalposts. The shutdown *or whatever version of it we did here in Oklahoma * prevented a massive overtaxing of not just our hospitals, but also PPE for our medical providers. It worked.

Again, not moving goalposts, but the characteristic of this virus when it is quickly spreading is that it starts to spread exponentially, and that is where you can get in trouble with medical resources.

And to correct your point, there were two goalposts outlined, and I'm fairly sure our own governor used both: One was "bend the curve," and the other was "flatten the curve." We chose to reopen the state at the peak, and then we saw a modest decrease in new cases for about a month.

We certainly did not "bend the curve," as other states and countries did. And now, our cases are not just growing, they are spiking.

It's too soon to conclude this will not impact hospitalizations and deaths.

Please stop misrepresenting what people are saying. Literally no one in the last two or three weeks has advocated shutting down. Why even say that? It is like gaslighting.

People are concerned that so many people are flouting the basic social distancing and mask wearing requests. WHY IS IT SO HARD FOR PEOPLE TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE CAN DO THE THINGS WE WANT TO DO WITHOUT SHUTTING DOWN IF WE TAKE BASIC SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND FOLLOW SIMPLE GUIDELINES? Sorry to yell but it is ****ing insane.

Where in my statement did I say people on here are calling for a shutdown again. No where.

I was commenting on the statements of the rise in casesu.. I was noting the models showed a few months ago the cases would rise after the shutdown. After the shutdown when moving to the right of he model, the cases rise under the flattened curve.

This should not be a surprise to anyone that the cases are rising.


The moving of goalposts is now being surprised the cases are rising when we know this three months ago.

This should not be a surprise to anyone that the cases are rising.

It is absolutely a surprise that we've set new record highs for 4 of the last 6 days.

And not something that should just be brushed off as completely expected.

I'd be careful about drawing sweeping conclusions from this story. There's decent evidence that COVID-19 produces anti-bodies and even doctors in the story express different hypotheses for this case.

Agreed. Covid has been around long enough that we would see a lot more cases of this happening. South Korea has done a lot of study on this and seemed convinced that this is existing viral shed.

The number I look at is hospitalizations. That number cannot be explained away with the more testing rationale. That number is up 5% to 181.

Things aren't looking much better it seems.

Honestly I don't bother looking at case numbers. I look at the death count. Any day without a death is a good day and unfortunately those days are an outlier.

The number I look at is hospitalizations. That number cannot be explained away with the more testing rationale. That number is up 5% to 181.The more testing rational is gone. Not just here but in many states that have reopened.

Things aren't looking much better it seems.

Honestly I don't bother looking at case numbers. I look at the death count. Any day without a death is a good day and unfortunately those days are an outlier.
Let’s hold on to the positives we have while we have them. Three out of the last 7 or 8 days have had zero deaths.

Thanks to whomever recommended Weldon Jack for a haircut. They told me when I called ahead, regardless of the state dropping the requirement that barbers wear masks, they planned to do that through the end of the year. They seem to be going above and beyond on Covid safety and I got a great haircut.

Although I was the only person I saw who entered the building wearing a mask. A couple of other people came and went, checking out at the register while I was there without much social distance to other people and not wearing masks. The barber did ask a person who was early and checking in for a hair cut to wait in their car.

I called Capitol City Barber Shop first and asked if they were requiring everyone to wear a mask and barbers wearing them also. They said, no, we are in phase three. That was before I talked to Weldon Jack, made an appointment and went. Phase 3 does not require masks. It does require people to wait outside and the shop to do other things. Link below. I'm unclear if they are wearing masks at all in Capitol City.

When I checked in on my former shop before asking here, I found two barbers, one person in the chair and two people waiting. No one had masks on but me. That's 5 people, no masks. Not that large of a shop. They told me whomever cut my hair would wear a mask on request.

Then I stopped by another shop on the way home I had not been in before. I could see the lone barber through the window and she had a mask on. One in the chair, facing the other direction. I stuck my masked face in and asked if I could make an appointment. She gave me a time.

I returned 10 minutes before. Parked outside the front door where we could see each other. There was one in the chair, a man and a woman with a child sitting in the waiting room. No masks on anyone but the barber. I thought oh, well, it's a family. She will wrap up, they will all leave and it will be just me and her.

Ten minutes later, a teenager walked out from somewhere inside and stood by the adults. That's 5 people, one barber. Then a van pulled up. A woman got out with three kids, and went inside. She stopped at the door and I guessed the conversation was wait over there and I'll cut yours after my next appointment. They went inside and sat down. That made 9 without masks and one masked barber.

Then a man came out of the back room and went to the register, no mask. I started my car and left.

I'll be back to Weldon Jack if I survive Oklahoma City until my next cut.

https://www.ok.gov/cosmo/documents/Safety%20Guidelines%20for%20going%20back%20to%20wo rk%20in%20Salons%20Phase%203%20June%201%2C%202020. pdf

It is absolutely a surprise that we've set new record highs for 4 of the last 6 days.

And not something that should just be brushed off as completely expected.I’m now sure I would say it’s surprising. The virus was starting to explode when we “shut down”. Then we reopened while still having pretty high daily new cases. With so many contagious people out there and now very little precautions being taken because most people took a Phase 3 to mean “Go back to normal” it’s not surprising at all.

Honestly I don't bother looking at case numbers. I look at the death count. Any day without a death is a good day and unfortunately those days are an outlier.

Morbidity is often overlooked for mortality, but "recovered" patients can have their life severely damaged (see this story (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/nyregion/coronavirus-recovery-hospital.html)):


Covid-19 patients who were transferred to the I.C.U. generally remained there a long time — at least two weeks, one study found — leading to more muscle loss and to increased risk for other physical and cognitive issues.

After a long stint on a ventilator, they often wake up confused and may need to relearn how to eat without choking. Even if their lungs have mostly healed, they may still be debilitated after not moving for so long and receiving high doses of sedatives. Some must work with physical therapists and push walkers to be able to walk again.

The psychological toll can also be immense. Some patients are traumatized, prompting nightmares and fears of being alone and sleeping. “A lot of people told me they felt lost,” Dr. Alka Gupta, the director of a recovery unit in Manhattan, said.

Once patients are home, their recovery may still be far from over, with some requiring walking aids and visits from health care workers.

Where in my statement did I say people on here are calling for a shutdown again. No where.

I was commenting on the statements of the rise in casesu.. I was noting the models showed a few months ago the cases would rise after the shutdown. After the shutdown when moving to the right of he model, the cases rise under the flattened curve.

This should not be a surprise to anyone that the cases are rising.


The moving of goalposts is now being surprised the cases are rising when we know this three months ago.

What? Anyone who says they would know what happens with this virus three months into the future is full of it. Seriously, what?

I am not sure what you are trying to argue here, and you are definitely arguing something, but it is one thing to expect a rise in cases when we “reopen,” and it is something else when we are seeing exponential growth in new cases. There are no public health officials in Oklahoma who are treating this in the blase manner you are. None.

I got my haircut at Capital City earlier this week. Everyone was wearing a mask and they seem very keen on keeping that as a policy. They did mention they are highly encouraging customers to wear masks, which sounds like they cut someones hair if they aren't wearing one. I would think that is up to the individual barber though. Seems like a high percentage of mask wearing there.

Things look bad in OKC but I didn't realize how much worse they are in Texas! With community spread tending to follow major interstate routes, we may need to look into closing that southern border with them... =P

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/503348-texas-coronavirus-hospitalization-up-11-percent

The OK Dept of Health just sent an email saying today's update has been delayed due to technical difficulties.

I got my haircut at Capital City earlier this week. Everyone was wearing a mask and they seem very keen on keeping that as a policy. They did mention they are highly encouraging customers to wear masks, which sounds like they cut someones hair if they aren't wearing one. I would think that is up to the individual barber though. Seems like a high percentage of mask wearing there.

It's hit or miss at the few places i have gone. Some have mask some have no mask. Chick-fil-a still hasn't even open it's lobby at least on my part of town. Not sure if whataburger has but as of a week ago they were still closed.

The OK Dept of Health just sent an email saying today's update has been delayed due to technical difficulties.

The computers are a little... buggy?

The OK Dept of Health just sent an email saying today's update has been delayed due to technical difficulties.

Definitely not suspicious after a week of rising case numbers and a massive presidential rally planned this weekend

The OK Dept of Health just sent an email saying today's update has been delayed due to technical difficulties.

Computers have the virus.

Definitely not suspicious after a week of rising case numbers and a massive presidential rally planned this weekend

I almost commented with "just wait for the conspiracy theories"...

I almost commented with "just wait for the conspiracy theories"...

From someone who seems to have an affinity for political science nonetheless. SMH.

Things look bad in OKC but I didn't realize how much worse they are in Texas! With community spread tending to follow major interstate routes, we may need to look into closing that southern border with them... =P

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/503348-texas-coronavirus-hospitalization-up-11-percent

I'm going to be positive today. Having only 2,793 people in the hospital when just Houston, San Antonio, Dallas adds up to 5 million alone doesn't seem overwhelming to me. Yeah it sucks people are getting sick but .05% of the population just based off of those 3 cities shouldn't be overwhelming the system.

I'm going to be positive today.

I try to be negative everyday during a pandemic.

I just got a very interesting call. I got tested a few days ago for the antibodies. I was expecting a letter but got a call asking me to donate plasma because I am positive. Wow.

I just got a very interesting call. I got tested a few days ago for the antibodies. I was expecting a letter but got a call asking me to donate plasma because I am positive. Wow.

Ever any symptoms?

I try to be negative everyday during a pandemic.

I know right. Does it really matter what the new numbers are today? Almost 1,500 new cases in a week. How many of them do you really think stayed home for 14 days and didn't go anywhere? How many people right now are feeling a little sick but don't want to go get tested cause if they test positive they might have to miss work? At some point unless you live in a total bubble your going to get it. You may not know you have it or had it but at some point your going to get it.

Ever any symptoms?About mid March I had a bit of a sore throat, a degree or so of fever and just generally felt like crap for a week or so. And ever since then off and onI feel like someone is pushing on my chest trying to keep me from breathing. But not seriously enough that I ever worried about it. I did kind of wonder though.

I just got a very interesting call. I got tested a few days ago for the antibodies. I was expecting a letter but got a call asking me to donate plasma because I am positive. Wow.

The wife and I were talking about donating blood just so we can get the antibody test.

About mid March I had a bit of a sore throat, a degree or so of fever and just generally felt like crap for a week or so. And ever since then off and onI feel like someone is pushing on my chest trying to keep me from breathing. But not seriously enough that I ever worried about it. I did kind of wonder though.

Good news! Hope you get to feeling back to 100% soon.

In case anyone wants an update this is the latest from Kassie McClung:
@KassieMcClung
"Because I'm getting a lot of interest: I contacted a spokesman about an hour ago, who said he didn't have any more information on what the issues were but said the numbers will be published as soon as they have them."

"Hearing at least some local health departments didn't get their data from the state this morning, either, and they expected to get the data sometime this afternoon. This was said this morning, so they might have it by now."

https://twitter.com/KassieMcClung/status/1273709599292522496?s=20

Holy crap. 450 new cases....

(insert conspiracy theory about the delay here)

Just saw that too. Not good at all...

Ok wow.

We now have the fastest growth in the nation in cases. 111% in week.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1273728734412124162?s=20

That's 2,149 new cases in just the last 10 days.

That's 2,149 new cases in just the last 10 days.

OMG. 450 in one day. If Bynum doesn’t shut down the rally he should be hitched from a wagon and run out of town. Holt better not downplay this either!

I keep thinking that "There is no way it can go higher."

Sad to see that I am wrong.

Seems like a good time to repost this link to state-by-state R value estimates.

https://rt.live

The scary part - they only have numbers as of June 12th in the model. Going to be sky high after this week is processed. We were below 1 for the longest time and now we're the worst in the country. notgreatbob.gif

It will most definitely keep going higher and higher until people start taking masks, etc. seriously.

And these increase in numbers will lead to increasing hospitalizations in the next week or two, and increasing deaths in the week or two after that.

We aren't in danger of a NY/Italy scenario of swamping our hospitals, but it is clear now that, barring drastic action (like requiring masks and actually enforcing social distancing) we're on our way to a very bumpy next 6 weeks or so...which puts us right into the beginning of the school year.

Almost nobody is wearing masks in OKC; I'd say less than 10% of the people I see out and about.

I've said it from the beginning, this is very strongly tied to politics. Tons of data show that the redder the state and county, the faster the infection rate is rising, especially where the governors are tightly aligned with the white house (and as I write this our governor is literally sitting in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue).

And of course all this is completely predictable given the current situation, at least if you happen to believe in science rather than politics.

WRT politics, I posted this earlier in the COVID-19 political thread (please keep the replies there and not here):

https://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=45607&p=1124929#post1124929

Seems like a good time to repost this link to state-by-state R value estimates.

https://rt.live

The scary part - they only have numbers as of June 12th in the model. Going to be sky high after this week is processed. We were below 1 for the longest time and now we're the worst in the country. notgreatbob.gif

It will most definitely keep going higher and higher until people start taking masks, etc. seriously.

SHUT IT DOWN. Sorry it's got to happen. Someone needs to have the balls and say you all didn't listen. You stopped wearing mask. You gathered in large protest So now we have to close everything again for 3 weeks. Maybe next time when we open things back up you all would of learned a lesson and wear a mask.

Almost nobody is wearing masks in OKC; I'd say less than 10% of the people I see out and about.

I've said it from the beginning, this is very strongly tied to politics. Tons of data show that the redder the state and county, the faster the infection rate is rising, especially where the governors are tightly aligned with the white house (and as I write this our governor is literally sitting in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue).

And of course all this is completely predictable given the current situation, at least if you happen to believe in science rather than politics.

Trump said today people who wear masks do so because they dont like him.... so that divide will be even deeper.

About mid March I had a bit of a sore throat, a degree or so of fever and just generally felt like crap for a week or so. And ever since then off and onI feel like someone is pushing on my chest trying to keep me from breathing. But not seriously enough that I ever worried about it. I did kind of wonder though.

That’s wild. I think I would make an appointment with a pulmonologist and see about mitigating any long term damage.

Seems like a good time to repost this link to state-by-state R value estimates.

https://rt.live

The scary part - they only have numbers as of June 12th in the model. Going to be sky high after this week is processed. We were below 1 for the longest time and now we're the worst in the country. notgreatbob.gif

It will most definitely keep going higher and higher until people start taking masks, etc. seriously.

That site says "We have a significant model update coming out this Friday, June 19th — stay tuned."