Our political system and culture will simply not allow for total shutdown as they have done in other countries.

That, combined with the fact so many people don't have health insurance, have poor health insurance or in the case of most rural areas, poor access to healthcare... Makes out situation potentially much, much harder to control.

People freaked out for a few days, hoarded toilet paper but no way people are staying out of bars and restaurants and no way the government shuts them down.

Now is the time to start social distancing. I know many can't because of lack of insurance or financial hardship, but those who can should definitely start. It may not reduce the number of cases in the long term, but it will help flatten the curve so our medical facilities are overwhelmed like in Italy.

There are new studies that are showing that there is more transmission from asymptomatic people than was previously thought. This is why you should avoid going out unless you absolutely have to.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

Is it just complete disregard or head-in-sandism in Oklahoma?

I made it a point to drive by several restaurants on the way home from work last night. BWW's had about 12 cars in the parking lot, Texas Roadhouse had about 20 cars, On The Border had 10 or so, and Red Robin had about 10-15. This was at 9pm on Saturday night in Colo Springs. I mentioned up thread I went to Outback on Friday night to pick up a togo order of wings and was literally the only patron at 9PM.

Is it just complete disregard or head-in-sandism in Oklahoma?

There is definitely a political aspect to all this, where the red states are much more likely to think this is just overblown by the evil, liberal press and thus not really believe there is a strong threat.

There is definitely a political aspect to all this, where the red states are much more likely to think this is just overblown by the evil, liberal press and thus not really believe there is a strong threat.

I mentioned this in the OKC aviation thread and I think there is some correlation. OKC and TUL have the highest load factors in the UA network right now and have seen practically zero cuts. 86% which is like a usual day in August. So far, even Delta's pretty public announcement of a severe cutback only resulted in trimming OKC-Detroit to 1 daily instead of 2 for May.

Meanwhile markets on the coasts and those you would consider more blue have cratered.

While I completely understand this, the main reason China and South Korea pulled out of this was a complete shutdown. I worry that that this type of activity (social distancing but still going out, etc.) will only make the situation worse in the long run

Worry all you want and build a fortress of TP around you while you're at it. I'm going to patronize local restaurants during this time and I'm going to do it while taking the necessary and reasonable precautions.

That’s the problem with the argument of “the numbers in China are already improving”, as a counter for all the current actions being taken.

1. They are still growing, just slower (which is flattening they curve and what we want).
2. China didn’t just completely shut down everything. China basically nailed doors shut and locked entire buildings down and prevented people from even leaving their homes and left them there for them, and the virus, to die out.

That’s why their curve is flattening.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/anthony-fauci-national-lockdown-bars-restaurants-cnntv/index.html


The nation's top infectious disease expert on Sunday did not rule out supporting a temporary national lockdown of the country's restaurants and bars in order to curb the spread of coronavirus, saying he'd like to see a "dramatic" reduction in activity in order to fight the disease.

Here’s where we seem to be in America...
“If I am in the non at risk population, I will still go out all I want. If I get sick, I’ll be uncomfortable and then go on. I won’t die, so I don’t really care about the others I may infect and how it causes people to DIE. That’s their problem.”

“**** others, I got mine” sums up the mindset of many.

On my way back from Clark Crew Sat afternoon I drive by WalMart and the parking lot was full like Christmas. Even if we shut down bars and eating places there are masses of people shopping for groceries.

Ran into this article take it with a grain of salt but adds some info to the discussion.

COVID-19 symptoms typically appear 5 days after infection
Popular Science
KATE BAGGALEY
Mar 11th 2020 3:37PM
People who are infected with COVID-19 start showing symptoms within about 5 days on average of being exposed to the new coronavirus, scientists reported March 10. Researchers analyzed 181 confirmed cases of the disease (both from within China and 24 other countries) and found that around half develop COVID-19 within 5 days of exposure and nearly all people who develop symptoms will do so within 12 days.

Understanding this incubation period—the time between when a virus enters a person’s body and when they start feeling sick—is crucial for health officials trying to make decisions about how to respond to the outbreak.

“As we encourage social distancing and even self-isolation of people who may have been exposed, it’s important to have a good understanding of how long it might take symptoms to appear,” Kyra Grantz, a PhD student in infectious disease epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told Popular Science in an email.

In order to estimate for how long it takes for symptoms of COVID-19 to appear, the team examined cases reported in news stories and press releases before February 24 that included likely dates of exposure and symptom onset. Most of these people had recently spent time in Wuhan, the city in China’s Hubei province where the outbreak began. Others had contact with people known to have COVID-19 or travelers from Hubei province.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days. Overall, fewer than 2.5 percent of infected people started showing symptoms within 2.2 days, and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.

Read the rest of article here:

https://www.aol.com/article/lifestyle/2020/03/11/covid-19-symptoms-typically-appear-5-days-after-infection/23947244/

Mayor Holt is getting slammed on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/davidfholt/status/1239227685336989698?s=21

We are seeing the downside of aggressive capitalism. There are tons of advantages and that underlying approach has helped make this country great, but there is a dark side in situations like the one we are now facing.

1. Most of our culture is based on competitiveness, not cooperation (and as an outgrowth comes the mindset: 'I work hard for my benefits and generally don't care that others don't have good or any healthcare').

2. We are so incredibly fearful of ruining businesses (because we are such a pro-business, pro-commerce society) most of our leaders are delivering mixed messages, which is somewhat understandable. We need people to stay home but by taking too strong a stance, you will ruin tons of businesses which could have devastating effects, and not necessarily just in the short-term.


So, are we supposed to all bunker down or should be out supporting local businesses? It's a very hard line to walk individually, let alone as leaders.

It’s also a complex situation. I along with many others have very little in bank account. I will not be able to survive this without having someone sending me money which fortunately for me I have resources to draw from but not everyone has that and many don’t. Many grocery stores are completely out of stock right now anyways less you want to wait in a line for minimum one hour just to check out once you have everything(that is the situation in LA).

If I don’t work I don’t eat and how do I survive then? That’s the situation lots of people will be put in.

I could come back to Oklahoma City for a bit but I’m scare I could have this virus and not know it and infect my father or grandparents who possibly wouldn’t survive it. So more than likely I will stay put.

My conclusion is there is something going on we aren’t being told but I’m not going to dwell on it further than that. It is what it is. Humans seem to forget things pretty quickly and move on. It’s interesting how many people online forums and social media seem to know so much about this virus and the outcome that will prevail.

Lets not forget our blood supply needs constantly replenished:

FDA Calls for Blood Donations in Wake of Coronavirus, Stresses Safety

Penny Starr 12 Mar 2020

The federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is calling on the public to donate blood to ensure the nation has a stable blood supply as the battle against the coronavirus continues.

“We need people to start turning out in force to give blood,” Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in the agency’s announcement of the campaign.

The FDA launched the campaign to counter what it says is an unrealistic fear that donating blood could put one at risk for getting the virus.

“The coronavirus does not pose any known risk to blood donors during the donation process or from attending blood drives,” the announcement said.

The agency reported that over the past week blood centers across the country have experienced a significant drop in donations, which is limiting the ability to make sure the nation’s blood supply is replenished and stable.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/12/fda-calls-for-public-to-donate-blood-in-wake-of-coronavirus-stresses-safety/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Mayor Holt is getting slammed on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/davidfholt/status/1239227685336989698?s=21

Rightfully so. This is the equivalent of the national weather service only issuing tornado warnings on the confirmed touchdown in a populated area. I am not suggesting he send the city into lockdown, but actively downplaying this and saying everything is OK until we see more evidence is flabbergasting. At least say "we have no reason to believe OKC is highly at risk right now, but it could be in the future. Limit your time in public spaces and be hyper vigilant with sanitary practices."

I ordered takeout from my favorite local Chinese restaurant last night, for a few reasons:

1. Support local businesses, ya we know.

2. Narrow minded racists are discriminating against ANYbody of Asian heritage and think you can get COVID from eating Chinese food.
(Example: one of my closest friends in South Korean - born in US, parents emigrated here decades ago. A few weeks back, long before any OK cases reported, he's playing a game at Soccer City - opposing team yelling "OH NO... CORONA!!!!" when he gets the ball.)

3. Low risk - I figure that these small family businesses will be much better about giving each other time off if somebody feels ill. They know their entire family business is on the line if it would be reported that a worker was sick and infected customers. I do NOT estimate that the national chain employees would use same caution. Somebody working part-time at Taco Bell, McDonalds, Popeye's, etc with no sick paid time off is going to call in sick if they are starting to get a sore throat, etc. Many of these folks are in such financial ruin that they can't afford to take any time off whatsoever. A family business has flexibility in that they can look out for each other if somebody can't come in to work. To mitigate potential risk, I used hand sanitizer after paying, and washed hands thoroughly before eating. Pretty simple.

Rightfully so. This is the equivalent of the national weather service only issuing tornado warnings on the confirmed touchdown in a populated area. I am not suggesting he send the city into lockdown, but actively downplaying this and saying everything is OK until we see more evidence is flabbergasting. At least say "we have no reason to believe OKC is highly at risk right now, but it could be in the future. Limit your time in public spaces and be hyper vigilant with sanitary practices."
I agree here. I’m not understanding his approach as he is claiming medical experts are advising waiting until community spread to take any further action but I have read the complete opposite from other medical experts.

I have worked in Food Service for 30 years. These people are not going to call it sick they can't afford too.

From OG&E:

The company will suspend all disconnects for the next 30 days. They say it is in part due to the Covid-19 virus which has kept some Oklahomans at home and away from work.

The company says they will not shut off any power to customers who cannot pay their bills. The policy goes into effect immediately

Holt’s leadership on this is disappointing, to say the least. He says public health professionals want to see community spread before they take more aggressive action. I’m calling 100% bs on that. But if it’s true, I want to know which public health professionals are advising him because they need to be fired from their jobs. No public health professional says to wait until there is community spread of a virus before taking action. They are all recommending preventive action to AVOID community spread.

Again, just deeply disappointed in Holt and our state leadership.

We are not going to turn this thread into a political discussion.

Get back to discussing the virus situation in OKC otherwise posts are going to get deleted (and I just axed a bunch).

Pioneer Libraries have closed indefinitely due to a COVD case in their service region. For the near-term, that's cost my daughter her job. Metro libraries are following suit.

One way to help local businesses who might see slow downs is to buy a gift card. You can do this online. Can spread out over the next few weeks or so as the slowdown hits them.

Even better is if there existed a needy clearinghouse for local workers most impacted. Ideally you could donate your gift card to an actual worker who got displaced or income severely cut by their place of employment.

This coming from a country which is on total lockdown with police-enforced compliance:


Italy on Sunday announced 368 new deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total death toll in the country to 1,809, according to Civil Protection Department Chief Angelo Borrelli.

Speaking at a press conference in Rome, Borrelli went on to reveal that the total number of positive cases registered in Italy reached 24,747 on Sunday, with an increase of 3,590 new cases recorded in the past 24 hours.

And Abigail Ogle,


Abigail Ogle
@KOCOAbigail
Double exclamation markCORONAVIRUS WARNING: This is from a metro doctor

“The first patient I tested Thursday when I received COVID kits tested POSITIVE!!! This patient had NO travel and NO sick contacts. This means that the virus has been actively circulating in OKC for at least one week....
Seems like we have community spread.

And Abigail Ogle,


Abigail Ogle
@KOCOAbigail
Double exclamation markCORONAVIRUS WARNING: This is from a metro doctor

“The first patient I tested Thursday when I received COVID kits tested POSITIVE!!! This patient had NO travel and NO sick contacts. This means that the virus has been actively circulating in OKC for at least one week....
Seems like we have community spread.

The low numbers across the US, and Oklahoma, are because of low number of tests and not because of low numbers of patients. That much is for certain.

And Abigail Ogle,


Abigail Ogle
@KOCOAbigail
Double exclamation markCORONAVIRUS WARNING: This is from a metro doctor

“The first patient I tested Thursday when I received COVID kits tested POSITIVE!!! This patient had NO travel and NO sick contacts. This means that the virus has been actively circulating in OKC for at least one week....
Seems like we have community spread.

Not a surprise, this thing's been around a lot longer than most people probably know, since mid-November 2019. And if you're asymptomatic and contagious, who knows how many you've infected, millions and millions have traveled around the world since 11/19, I'm shocked it's not actually worse at this point.

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html

I have worked in Food Service for 30 years. These people are not going to call it sick they can't afford too.

Yes, and I worked for the BNSF/ATSF for 38 years, good benefits, pay, and retirement, but No sick days! You were expected to come to work and tuff it out. Not a good system in a pandemic.

This coming from a country which is on total lockdown with almost complete compliance:

I put together some charts.


Total cases and deaths Italy and US from 2/23
https://i.gyazo.com/55aafe4a8c99ccb39c42775a35e051c7.png

Same data as above represented on a chart
https://i.gyazo.com/ffe08ece9e10ec282e62fc051532a3d6.png
https://i.gyazo.com/1111ef55a93397966507eda224434275.png

-----

Same data as above, however represented to compare growth rates by showing the USA's as starting around the same time of virus acceleration. In this instance, 3/4 is to the USA as 2/23 is to Italy.

https://i.gyazo.com/9d098f027a7d87f6fdd8f4cef1bfc99b.png

The dates are purposefully incorrect for the USA in these graphs, 2/23 is correct for Italy. USA growth beginning 3/4 is displayed along with 2/23 Italy
This is using the same data as above but dates are aligned to start at the same time relative to the start of virus acceleration. 3/4 is the end of US data on these charts, but 3/4 is for Italy, which would be 3/14 for the USA. Hope that makes sense.
https://i.gyazo.com/fadd503f0f7eaa4412161e8a09279362.png
https://i.gyazo.com/f6a4c7af8f15e09e25ed1f9a140335c3.png


Source, daily situation reports: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

I think it’s a lot less useful without knowing the number of people tested.

All bars and restaurants closed to dine-in in Illinois until March 30.

https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/all-bars-restaurants-to-be-closed-to-dine-in-customers-in-illinois-due-to-covid-19-concerns/

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-2-03-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html


California to close bars, nightclubs and wineries
From CNN's Stella Chan

All California bars, nightclubs, wineries and brew pubs will be closed because they are "a non-essential function," state Gov. Gavin Newsom said during a press conference Sunday.

Restaurant capacities must be reduced by half to practice social distancing, Newsom said.

Interestingly, Mayor Holt is friends with Garcetti:



Mayor Eric Garcetti
@MayorOfLA
Let me be very clear: gathering in big groups puts lives at risk. We need everyone to stay home as much as possible, avoid being in crowds, practice social distancing. Taking these steps will help keep our hospitals and healthcare workers from being inundated with COVID-19 cases.

OKC Metro Libraries just announced 2 week closure. Have been wondering when this was coming.

This is what happens when you constantly release material on social media to show how WOKE and cool you are. Holt seems like a genuinely nice guy, but I think they (him and Mr. Stitt) both should have refrained and set better examples.

^

If we end up with a bunch of cases in Oklahoma, both those guys are going to be flogged near to death due to these recent social media posts.

They are already getting roundly bashed.

I wonder when they will shut down all air travel in the U.S.? And why hasn't that already been done?

We are not going to turn this thread into a political discussion.

Get back to discussing the virus situation in OKC otherwise posts are going to get deleted (and I just axed a bunch).

I wasn’t on when there were posts you had to delete so I’m sure they were over the top or you wouldn’t have removed them. The problem for me is that it’s hard sometimes to differentiate between politics and policy. When talking about decisions from our elected local and state officials, being made (or not made) literally as we write, it’s hard to separate the “town square” from the “partisan rally.”

I wasn’t on when there were posts you had to delete so I’m sure they were over the top or you wouldn’t have removed them. The problem for me is that it’s hard sometimes to differentiate between politics and policy. When talking about decisions from our elected local and state officials, being made (or not made) literally as we write, it’s hard to separate the “town square” from the “partisan rally.”

Yes, I understand but we were going way, way off the rails.

Yes, I understand but we were going way, way off the rails.

No doubt, I’m sure. I was just voicing the quandry of my sometimes not knowing the difference. There’s no real answer. But, thank you for removing over-the-top behavior.

I wonder when they will shut down all air travel in the U.S.? And why hasn't that already been done?

A question to that effect was asked of Pence and he stated all options are on the table. Which my interpretation of that is yes, air travel will be shutting down shortly.

Mayor Holt just declared a state of emergency in OKC.
He is live on channel 4. Being streamed live here..
https://kfor.com/news/local/okc-mayor-confirms-local-transmission-of-coronavirus-declares-state-of-emergency/

I wasn’t on when there were posts you had to delete so I’m sure they were over the top or you wouldn’t have removed them. The problem for me is that it’s hard sometimes to differentiate between politics and policy. When talking about decisions from our elected local and state officials, being made (or not made) literally as we write, it’s hard to separate the “town square” from the “partisan rally.”

I was one of them, and we were getting into differences in political systems and I knew it was getting pretty off topic. It was the right call to delete them.

If local school districts start shutting down, that is another inflection point because parents will have to stay at home with them, and that means almost all businesses will at best have to let people telecommute and the most likely scenario is that most will have to close altogether.

If local school districts start shutting down, that is another inflection point because parents will have to stay at home with them, and that means almost all businesses will at best have to let people telecommute and the most likely scenario is that most will have to close altogether.

And what if those parents that have to stay home are first responders, nurses, cleaning people that work for hospitals, trash haulers, truck drivers, etc.? Just keeps snowballing because of how interconnected our entire economy is.

Stitt finally declares State of Emergency; Oklahoma is either the last or 2nd to last state to do this:

http://www.sos.ok.gov/documents/executive/1913.pdf?fbclid=IwAR30-ggPQB2SCoroe3xDUWMY8rK5iX5gqOmRrZQoTeTjrYx9aTs0RX9 ITvE

And what if those parents that have to stay home are first responders, nurses, cleaning people that work for hospitals, trash haulers, truck drivers, etc.? Just keeps snowballing because of how interconnected our entire economy is.

There probably wont be a shortage of adults to watch kids by this summer or next school year.

https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/?query=c7cc9cdc-7e8f-4e17-b9e7-1be89d7dad43&fbclid=IwAR17_hiKsQf1NaQF4iPw9K8oLlO8MUvAokJZk9umi ktDyXPD8EZV_GX1c8Q#/

Good link to the availability of hospital beds in Oklahoma. OKC has ~60 beds for every 10,000 people.

Edit: looking at the counties surrounding us, those populations will be utilizing many of those beds. Many of our small regional hospitals are set up to be feeder hospitals and normally transfer folks to OKC.

Rumor among pilots is an announcement will occur tomorrow regarding shutting down the national airspace system effective Wednesday.

Pilots aren't always the best or most reliable source but that is what is going around with them. Thought I would pass this along.

Stitt finally declares State of Emergency; Oklahoma is either the last or 2nd to last state to do this:

http://www.sos.ok.gov/documents/executive/1913.pdf?fbclid=IwAR30-ggPQB2SCoroe3xDUWMY8rK5iX5gqOmRrZQoTeTjrYx9aTs0RX9 ITvE

He really didn't have any other choice. Once the Mayor of the largest city has declared an emergency, and pointed out that the governor could do more, you're are in a lose-lose situation if you're Stitt.

Lets hope this turns into good news:


Charlie Kirk
@charliekirk11
BREAKING:

A new vaccine is in the works for the China Corona Virus

The first participant in the clinical trial will receive his test on Monday

Dr. Anthony Fauci has said the process of getting this vaccine into testing has occurred at the fastest rates in history

Incredible!
7:07 PM · Mar 15, 2020

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1239342430941409285

One of the questions will be long term immunity. Current coronaviruses don’t really give long acting immunity after infections. So will a vaccine do better than that?

We might end up with a situation where we produce it and administer it everywhere for short term immunity, then boost vaccinations as COVID-19 emerges in clusters if it ends up endemic.

I heard there was a positive COVID-19 case on the OU Norman campus.

One of the questions will be long term immunity. Current coronaviruses don’t really give long acting immunity after infections. So will a vaccine do better than that?

We might end up with a situation where we produce it and administer it everywhere for short term immunity, then boost vaccinations as COVID-19 emerges in clusters if it ends up endemic.

This is the elephant in the room, IMO. One would hope that in the worst case, once a vaccine is developed, we could modify it on a yearly basis to account for any mutations, similar to the flu vaccine. Because otherwise, we are in for a rough time.

These vaccines are not going to help this year much unless they're the temporary kind (which I only kind of understand). This is for the future, not now.


Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.


Some researchers even aim for temporary vaccines, such as shots that might guard people’s health a month or two at a time while longer-lasting protection is developed.

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/government-official-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-starts-monday/ar-BB11ecp5?OCID=ansmsnnews11

All we can do practice social distancing to flatten the curve. I am not planning to go into public places for the next month. I'm not going to work. I will go on isolated runs and videoconference a lot. It's my civic duty to treat this like I have COIVD-19 and would spread it if I am around any people.

Illinois and California made the right move to shut down businesses. Make all restaurants drive thrus. Close all bars that don't serve food. Set stringent rules for supermarkets. If this happened everywhere tomorrow we still will assuredly face huge numbers of cases and deaths because of slow actions. Holt and Stitt's dismissiveness of all epidemiologists and social science experts on the spread of COVID-19 (except their supposed state experts who should be fired) is unacceptable.

But now is the time for everyone to stay home if you have the ability to do so.

I heard there was a positive COVID-19 case on the OU Norman campus.

Yes, got an email from the OU President saying their has been a positive COVID-19 case. OU Norman Campus will be closed this week for all non-essential employees.

Vaccines can be rushed in emergency situations. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.