View Full Version : Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)




SoonerDave
04-26-2020, 08:22 AM
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/amc-movie-theaters-reopening_n_5ea334d5c5b6d376358f3f7d

AMC Theatres, the largest movie theater chain in the U.S., won’t reopen its locations until at least this summer.

AMC is in really bad financial straits, and is trying to carve out a path for survival. I think their decision not to reopen is due in part to the risk of having to close again. If they opened, then had to close again, they could be toast.

Pete
04-26-2020, 09:41 AM
^

There are no movies being released into theaters and this time of year is very slow.

Theaters make all their money in the summers and holiday season.

Pete
04-26-2020, 12:35 PM
DoD = Day over Day

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042620a.jpg

kukblue1
04-26-2020, 01:45 PM
Look like 72 New cases and 60 new cases in the last 2 days. Getting better. I really think we should be waiting until the 15th to open things back up. The weather at that point will be warmer and help at least kill things quicker outside. Also the numbers might keep going down and we will just be better prepared by the 15th. Also clinical trail results on some drugs are due out shortly. It looks like the Plasma is really helping. We will have a better idea on what will be working by the 15ht. Over all I just think waiting 2 more weeks would be beneficial.

jonny d
04-26-2020, 03:01 PM
Look like 72 New cases and 60 new cases in the last 2 days. Getting better. I really think we should be waiting until the 15th to open things back up. The weather at that point will be warmer and help at least kill things quicker outside. Also the numbers might keep going down and we will just be better prepared by the 15th. Also clinical trail results on some drugs are due out shortly. It looks like the Plasma is really helping. We will have a better idea on what will be working by the 15ht. Over all I just think waiting 2 more weeks would be beneficial.

Without more testing, this state is in trouble, no matter when we reopen everything. It is kinda sad how few tests Oklahoma has had done.

kukblue1
04-26-2020, 03:39 PM
Without more testing, this state is in trouble, no matter when we reopen everything. It is kinda sad how few tests Oklahoma has had done.

Antibodies test is the test we really should be cranking out. If your sick right now it most likely isn't the flu. Coughing, trouble breathing, fever it could be other things yes but then you should get tested. I guess it's just as important to test for Covid-19 cause you could have it and not show symptoms but that would be impossible to test everyone. Antibodies test might I think are easier to do in mass numbers.

Snowman
04-26-2020, 07:11 PM
Look like 72 New cases and 60 new cases in the last 2 days. Getting better. I really think we should be waiting until the 15th to open things back up. The weather at that point will be warmer and help at least kill things quicker outside. Also the numbers might keep going down and we will just be better prepared by the 15th. Also clinical trail results on some drugs are due out shortly. It looks like the Plasma is really helping. We will have a better idea on what will be working by the 15ht. Over all I just think waiting 2 more weeks would be beneficial.

I would not put much stock in a two day trend on the weekend, for multiple weeks weekend numbers have been around a quarter to half below the average weekday numbers, so probably more a reflection on the system and people's behavior than infection rate.

SoonerDave
04-26-2020, 07:58 PM
Antibody research pending formal peer review out of Santa Clara shows that actual COVD penetration in the population may be 55x actual confirmed case rates. This, if the number holds up, would translate into a CFR of 0.1%, far, far lower than original projections.

As a matter of statistical curiosity, I took our current fatality total of 179, divided it by . 001, giving a supposed "actual" case count of 179,000. That number, divided by 55 (the presumptive factor of underestimation), and got 3,254. Our current state confirmed case total: 3,253.

You obviously can't make absolute conclusions on a single data point like that, and I fully realize there are other factors involved, but the raw mathematical similarity is amazing.

If we have anywhere near 179,000 cases in OK, implying literally thousands - perhaps tens of thousands - had COVD with *zero* symptoms, the notion of achieving herd immunity more rapidly isn't nearly as farfetched as it might have once seemed. I'll be very interested to see how these numbers pan out in other areas.

Canoe
04-27-2020, 09:09 AM
DoD = Day over Day

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042620a.jpg

How is the medical system holding up in Oklahoma. Has/Is anyone experiencing sub standard care?

jn1780
04-27-2020, 10:00 AM
Antibody research pending formal peer review out of Santa Clara shows that actual COVD penetration in the population may be 55x actual confirmed case rates. This, if the number holds up, would translate into a CFR of 0.1%, far, far lower than original projections.

As a matter of statistical curiosity, I took our current fatality total of 179, divided it by . 001, giving a supposed "actual" case count of 179,000. That number, divided by 55 (the presumptive factor of underestimation), and got 3,254. Our current state confirmed case total: 3,253.

You obviously can't make absolute conclusions on a single data point like that, and I fully realize there are other factors involved, but the raw mathematical similarity is amazing.

If we have anywhere near 179,000 cases in OK, implying literally thousands - perhaps tens of thousands - had COVD with *zero* symptoms, the notion of achieving herd immunity more rapidly isn't nearly as farfetched as it might have once seemed. I'll be very interested to see how these numbers pan out in other areas.

Its not the only data point though. We also had a NY survey that showed 21% of NYC could have already gotten it. In that case, their shutdown came to late to actually help them or the subway system made it impossible to significantly slow it.

I think we could see an increase in cases, whenever everything opens up. However, what we are learning from antibody testing is that there are far too many asymptomatic out there for testing to make a significant difference with what resources we can throw at it. If the models, were calibrated with this antibody information they would probably say wait until next year to reopen when we have more testing and we are feeling strong downward pressure from herd immunity kicking in. For NYC, they are probably starting to feel this herd immunity kicking in.

dankrutka
04-27-2020, 11:28 AM
Props to them. I think this is a perfect opportunity for individuals, businesses and large corporations to demonstrate what freedom really means. If you want to be open or go to places that are open fine. If not don’t.

I don't agree with framing this as a personal freedom issue. COVID-19 is, at it's core, a public health issue. When individuals or businesses open up in ways that irresponsibly harm others the core issue is NOT freedom. The only way to frame this as a "freedom" issue is to have no sense of the common good, sacrifice, or empathy.

As some businesses open and more people go out, I hope they have public health, not personal freedom, on their minds.

Pete
04-27-2020, 11:36 AM
http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042720a.jpg


http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042720b.jpg

jerrywall
04-27-2020, 11:44 AM
I don't agree with framing this as a personal freedom issue. COVID-19 is, at it's core, a public health issue. When individuals or businesses open up in ways that irresponsibly harm others the core issue is NOT freedom. The only way to frame this as a "freedom" issue is to have no sense of the common good, sacrifice, or empathy.

Additionally, there's no "freedom" for the employees except those able and willing to quit if need be. We're in that position with my wife's job. They're making noise about making folks return this week. There is absolutely nothing in her job that requires her to be on site. However, I'm in an extremely high risk group and my youngest son has an artificial heart valve and is waiting for the right time to schedule an open heart surgery to replace that valve with an adult sized valve (this one was put in when he was an infant). It was supposed to happen this summer and has been delayed, but he's also at high risk. So if her job forces her to return she'll just quit because it's not worth the risk.


As some businesses open and more people go out, I hope they have public health, not personal freedom, on their minds.

From what I've heard anecdotally about shops this weekend, a lot of folks are just acting like it's everything back to normal...

dankrutka
04-27-2020, 01:51 PM
Fait Maison in Edmond is re-opening on 5/1. Their email said this - "We will still take extreme precautions to secure the safety of our employees, friends and guests". Um, if you still have to take "extreme precautions", should you really even re-open?

Yes. My interpretation was the opposite of yours. If you want my business, then take "extreme precautions." To me, it's weird to interpret being "extreme" toward safety as some kind of problem. Unfortunately, it seems like a lot of people have this viewpoint that they want things to be normal. I don't. I want a business to require masks, limit customers, and have clear rules about where people stand or move.

kukblue1
04-27-2020, 01:57 PM
http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042720a.jpg


http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042720b.jpg

Good looking numbers over the last 3 days. We might have this beat in 2 more weeks. Oh wait we are opening things back up never mind. Can't wait to see the numbers in a little over a week. Hopefully they will stay good but i'm thinking probably not.

gopokes88
04-27-2020, 02:05 PM
The goal wasn’t to stop the spread.

The goal was to not overwhelm hospitals, hospitals had so little business they are now near collapse. So goal accomplished.

workman45
04-27-2020, 02:10 PM
Unfortunately from what we observed last weekend, only about 25% of people are wearing mask. Let's pray this doesn't hurt us down the road.

David
04-27-2020, 02:19 PM
It might depend on where you are looking. I went by the Myriad Gardens and then through Bricktown a bit on Saturday, and from what I could see only myself and a small handful of other people were wearing masks or paying much attention to social distancing. On the other hand, when I went for groceries on Sunday nearly everyone was being compliant.

TheTravellers
04-27-2020, 02:51 PM
Yes. My interpretation was the opposite of yours. If you want my business, then take "extreme precautions." To me, it's weird to interpret being "extreme" toward safety as some kind of problem. Unfortunately, it seems like a lot of people have this viewpoint that they want things to be normal. I don't. I want a business to require masks, limit customers, and have clear rules about where people stand or move.

I've eaten at Fait Maison, it's expensive as hell (cost us probably $300 total for both of us), and there's no way I'd go right now to a place with that kind of atmosphere (normally) and have to deal with "extreme precautions". I might not have been as clear as I should originally, but that was pretty much my point. We've got reservations at Nonesuch in June and if they're open and also taking "extreme precautions", I'm going to have to think twice about going - if I'm paying that much for a meal, I don't want somebody dressed in surgical garb with 3-foot long serving tongs serving me dinner.

PhiAlpha
04-27-2020, 02:57 PM
I don't agree with framing this as a personal freedom issue. COVID-19 is, at it's core, a public health issue. When individuals or businesses open up in ways that irresponsibly harm others the core issue is NOT freedom. The only way to frame this as a "freedom" issue is to have no sense of the common good, sacrifice, or empathy.

As some businesses open and more people go out, I hope they have public health, not personal freedom, on their minds.

That’s one way of looking at it...but the other is that now people can choose to shelter in place and stay away from other people or not...which is definitely the freedom of choice. People that go into those businesses know the risk they are taking and are accepting the risk by patronizing the business. If a business is doing something unsafe...they will likely lose business because of it.

Edmond Hausfrau
04-27-2020, 04:04 PM
- if I'm paying that much for a meal, I don't want somebody dressed in surgical garb with 3-foot long serving tongs serving me dinner.
Guarantee you that there's a kid at CIA in Hyde Park right now pitching this very concept. "Like Alinea but kaiseki, with sterilized instruments

TheTravellers
04-27-2020, 07:43 PM
Guarantee you that there's a kid at CIA in Hyde Park right now pitching this very concept. "Like Alinea but kaiseki, with sterilized instruments

Ha!

"Your dessert, sir"

16013

Pete
04-28-2020, 11:10 AM
Numbers just updated for Tuesday:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona042820a.jpg

jccouger
04-28-2020, 11:19 AM
Always expect that Tuesday catch up on numbers.

The # of new cases may be due to an increase in capacity of testing, but the # of new hospitalizations is very concerning.

Opening up this week seems like at best it will keep this level going for the next few months which our society might be "ok" with. At least as far as the trade off with keeping a somewhat functional economy.

Got my fingers crossed by time that heat will help eliminate the spread, that feels like our only hope.

OkiePoke
04-28-2020, 11:23 AM
Assuming a 2-3 day infection to hospitalization, Tuesday's numbers represent Friday/Saturday? These are usually our highest numbers of hospitalization

37, 27, 31, 36, 24

jn1780
04-28-2020, 11:30 AM
There's always going to be a wide spread of actual infected vs what testing shows us. Its a characteristic of this virus, a very large number of asymptomatic people. In other states, they are seeing up to 50 percent of deaths occurring in nursing homes. Anything similar happening in Oklahoma? Once a nursing home gets infected, it pretty much spreads through the whole place. We would of had to force workers to stay there at the beginning if we wanted to save those lives.

G.Walker
04-28-2020, 11:33 AM
We just seen our biggest spike in cases (130) since April 9th, hmmm? Lifting the shelter in place a bit too early, or just a coincidence?

jn1780
04-28-2020, 11:37 AM
We just seen our biggest spike in cases (130) since April 9th, hmmm? Lifting the shelter in place a bit too early, or just a coincidence?

It takes at least 5 days to see any kind of results from lifting sheltering in place.

Pete
04-28-2020, 11:40 AM
It takes at least 5 days to see any kind of results from lifting sheltering in place.

But since announcing the lift, there is no question way more people have been out and about.

And the announcement was 6 days ago.

jn1780
04-28-2020, 11:49 AM
But since announcing the lift, there is no question way more people have been out and about.

And the announcement was 6 days ago.

Some of it. Its been steadily increasing since stimulus checks started going out. The antibody study results changed a lot of peoples attitudes toward the lockdown also. These studies quantified the spread and individual risks.

Pete
04-28-2020, 11:51 AM
^

Many, many comments here and on social media that traffic has been up significantly since the announcement and parking lots of open retailers packed.

Common sense says that is going to lead to the spread of the virus.

gopokes88
04-28-2020, 11:53 AM
We’re all gonna get it. Good chunk will get very sick, even fewer will die.

If you’re obese (which is the most common factor), elderly, or have other underlying health issues stay home. The rest of us will catch it for you and herd immunity will take effect.

OKC Guy
04-28-2020, 11:54 AM
Interesting question someone asked me: Is it safer to go out and eat or to a grocery store.

After thinking about I concluded eating out was safer. What are others thoughts?

1. Go to Crest and place is packed all day every day. Massive volumes of people. Imagine if 2,000 people go to Creat and then how many items 2,000 touch since they are moving all around store

2. Go to Clark Crew and although crowded it doesn’t move as fast people wise in comparison. Likely has great ventilation system. Extra cleaning. Folks are not traversing the whole place touching everything.

I don’t know but it seems to me eating out is safer than dining in via grocery shopping.

What does the good folks here think?

dankrutka
04-28-2020, 11:56 AM
If you really believe herd immunity is the only solution then walk the walk and get the virus on purpose. Otherwise, it’s just a way to rationalize putting others in harms way.

dankrutka
04-28-2020, 11:57 AM
Interesting question someone asked me: Is it safer to go out and eat or to a grocery store.

After thinking about I concluded eating out was safer. What are others thoughts?

1. Go to Crest and place is packed all day every day. Massive volumes of people. Imagine if 2,000 people go to Creat and then how many items 2,000 touch since they are moving all around store

2. Go to Clark Crew and although crowded it doesn’t move as fast people wise in comparison. Likely has great ventilation system. Extra cleaning. Folks are not traversing the whole place touching everything.

I don’t know but it seems to me eating out is safer than dining in via grocery shopping.

What does the good folks here think?

Ventilation is important, but neither is “safe.” You’re going to be at risk in doors with other people.

OKC Guy
04-28-2020, 12:03 PM
Ventilation is important, but neither is “safe.” You’re going to be at risk in doors with other people.

Good point. So why is everything still shut? In my view everyone has been to the grocery store often enough so everyone has been exposed most likely.

And on the question if it was only those 2 choices I’m choosing Clark Crew over Crest.

jerrywall
04-28-2020, 12:03 PM
But since announcing the lift, there is no question way more people have been out and about.

And the announcement was 6 days ago.

But a bunch of these numbers would have been from under reporting over the weekend, so it would have been 2-3 days after the announcement. I think trying to ascribe this bump as a direct result of that is disingenuous or reaching. I think, if it really is a true bump, that it is reflective of the changing attitudes on the lockdown over the past two weeks. People have been getting out quite a bit more, shopping, etc. The announcement, obviously, isn't going to help this attitude any, so will certainly (or at least should) contribute to the spread long term, but I don't think we've seen the results of that yet.

TheTravellers
04-28-2020, 12:03 PM
Ventilation is important, but neither is “safe.” You’re going to be at risk in doors with other people.

Do regular (not HEPA) HVAC (commercial or residential) units have filtering that will actually grab and trap virus particles? And do we even know for certain how contagious airborne coronavirus is or if it's transmitted primarily by touch or droplets/aerosol, or how much viral load has to be ingested before someone gets sick?

Pete
04-28-2020, 12:11 PM
But a bunch of these numbers would have been from under reporting over the weekend, so it would have been 2-3 days after the announcement. I think trying to ascribe this bump as a direct result of that is disingenuous or reaching. I think, if it really is a true bump, that it is reflective of the changing attitudes on the lockdown over the past two weeks. People have been getting out quite a bit more, shopping, etc. The announcement, obviously, isn't going to help this attitude any, so will certainly (or at least should) contribute to the spread long term, but I don't think we've seen the results of that yet.

If you are trying to say that behavior -- i.e. much more going out -- didn't change as a direct result of the government announcements, I strongly disagree and that does not align with what I am seeing with my own eyes and what others have been freely reporting.

There is simply no way for this activity to increase relatively drastically and not have that increase the spread of the virus. That's just common sense completely independent of statistics.

jerrywall
04-28-2020, 12:12 PM
If you are trying to say that behavior -- i.e. much more going out -- didn't change as a direct result of the government announcements, I strongly disagree and that does not align with what I am seeing with my own eyes and what others have been freely reporting.

There is simply no way for this activity to increase relatively drastically and not have that increase the spread of the virus. That's just common sense completely independent of statistics.

Actually, I specifically said the opposite...


The announcement, obviously, isn't going to help this attitude any, so will certainly (or at least should) contribute to the spread long term, but I don't think we've seen the results of that yet.

I just disagreed that todays numbers reflect that.

Bill Robertson
04-28-2020, 12:22 PM
Do regular (not HEPA) HVAC (commercial or residential) units have filtering that will actually grab and trap virus particles? And do we even know for certain how contagious airborne coronavirus is or if it's transmitted primarily by touch or droplets/aerosol, or how much viral load has to be ingested before someone gets sick?
They would catch some percentage. Most commercial units would have MERV 8 or MERV 11 filters. If my understanding of N ratings of masks is right an 8 would be about the same as an N45 mask and 11 would be about the same as an N65.

Bill Robertson
04-28-2020, 12:25 PM
With more testing sites opening, I know of at least 2 this week, the new case numbers are also likely to go up. Which means more people that have it but would not have been found a month ago are being found now. This is not a bad thing. At least not as bad as the new case number being steady without increased testing.

Jersey Boss
04-28-2020, 12:30 PM
At this point I am taking a wait and see on the anti body effectiveness as far as warding off the disease. I read some anecdotal reports from Korea on folks getting it a second time. Also the chicken pox is a virus and those anti bodies certainly do not ward off shingles.

jn1780
04-28-2020, 12:35 PM
At this point I am taking a wait and see on the anti body effectiveness as far as warding off the disease. I read some anecdotal reports from Korea on folks getting it a second time. Also the chicken pox is a virus and those anti bodies certainly do not ward off shingles.

So are we willing to close grocery stores and force people to stay home at gunpoint to stop the virus if there are no long term antibodies in order to kill the virus completely? Oklahoma has been on a plateau, for over a month. That seems to be the best we can get with the current level of lock downs. If half the people are running around with no symptoms we are not going to catch them with testing.

I'm diabetic so I would prefer not to get it. But the idea that I'm going to avoid the world entirely for almost two years is crazy. I would rather deal with a significantly higher risk for 2 -3 months than the same lower risk but prolonged over 2 years. Even if I avoided getting it for two years, I would still have to worry about getting insulin because we blew up the economy entirely.

dankrutka
04-28-2020, 01:15 PM
Good point. So why is everything still shut? In my view everyone has been to the grocery store often enough so everyone has been exposed most likely.

Have they? I have not been inside any type of store or business in 6 weeks. Moreover, every person who has entered a store is not immediately infected. We've got to quit with the overgeneralizing. There is so much nuance to this crisis.

dankrutka
04-28-2020, 01:22 PM
The argument for herd immunity is neither simple nor clear. First, we don't even know what immunity looks like yet. Who has immunity and for how long? It's a big unknown. Second, we don't know what "recovery" looks like. Are there long-term health risks? Could people have long-term lung damage or other health problems?

Again, people keep proposing herd immunity as some kind of inevitable outcome and solution, but we don't know enough yet to even know whether that would work... aside from the fact that it would result in a massive number of deaths beyond what's happened. I just wish people would quit with the simplistic solutions. They often do so as some kind of open-the-economy rationalization to address their anxiety, but that's not how you solve a complex problem.

mkjeeves
04-28-2020, 01:23 PM
Have they? I have not been inside any type of store or business in 6 weeks. Moreover, every person who has entered a store is not immediately infected. We've got to quit with the overgeneralizing. There is so much nuance to this crisis.

Ditto. Or inside any other business. No plans to do that anytime in the near future either.

kukblue1
04-28-2020, 01:31 PM
Here is my break down. They have no clue how many people have this or have had this. How are there near 50,000 negative test? OSDH said Monday that 2,167 Oklahomans have recovered from COVID-19. Nearly 50,000 people have tested negative. If you only getting tested if your showing symptoms why are so many negative? I know it could be other thing but are there really that many sick people walking around with a cough, fever, or shortness of breath? Also symptoms usually show 5-7 days and people usually don't go to the hospital until day 11. https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last So we are a little too so to see it's it's because we have open things up. However go back and what happen around 11 days ago. Payday from the government. People got their checks in the mail and I noticed right away there were way more people out and about. There were others that commented about it also.

OKCretro
04-28-2020, 01:36 PM
are we still 2nd to last in testing per state? what about testing per capita? Clearly we do not need as many test as Cali, texas or NY

that was one of the main gripes a few weeks ago.

Jersey Boss
04-28-2020, 01:43 PM
So are we willing to close grocery stores and force people to stay home at gunpoint to stop the virus if there are no long term antibodies in order to kill the virus completely? Oklahoma has been on a plateau, for over a month. That seems to be the best we can get with the current level of lock downs. If half the people are running around with no symptoms we are not going to catch them with testing.

I'm diabetic so I would prefer not to get it. But the idea that I'm going to avoid the world entirely for almost two years is crazy. I would rather deal with a significantly higher risk for 2 -3 months than the same lower risk but prolonged over 2 years. Even if I avoided getting it for two years, I would still have to worry about getting insulin because we blew up the economy entirely.
My personal wait and see approach had no mention of or inference of going Kent State on the population.

TheTravellers
04-28-2020, 01:45 PM
The argument for herd immunity is neither simple nor clear. First, we don't even know what immunity looks like yet. Who has immunity and for how long? It's a big unknown. ...

Also, how do we get immunity? Hasn't been shown that having it confers immunity, and there's no vaccine to make us (as) immune (as we can get at some future, unknown time).

Bunty
04-28-2020, 01:45 PM
We just seen our biggest spike in cases (130) since April 9th, hmmm? Lifting the shelter in place a bit too early, or just a coincidence?
It suggests to me shelter in place isn't working out very well. For the gradual reopening a lot more people had better wear masks combined with social distancing. I will practice what I preach. People in less than good health better not chance it at all by going to stores. I don't see how anyone who has been very sick and suffering before from the flu or strep throat would want to take a chance without a mask. Strep throat is easily treated with antibiotics, but not COVID-19.

If your city is handing out free masks and you need one, take advantage of it. They will quite likely be much better that the crude sew free ones you can make with a handkerchief or old T-shirt. I don't want the transition to normalcy to fail and have to return to the Twilight Zone.

TheTravellers
04-28-2020, 01:56 PM
Interesting series of articles written by NYC ER docs.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-new-york-er-doctors-log.html

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-er-log-week-two.html

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/nyc-emergency-log-coronavirus.html

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/er-log-one-month-coronavirus.html

soonerguru
04-28-2020, 02:21 PM
Good point. So why is everything still shut? In my view everyone has been to the grocery store often enough so everyone has been exposed most likely.

And on the question if it was only those 2 choices I’m choosing Clark Crew over Crest.

"Everyone" has not been to the grocery store. Geez. There are grocery delivery services that have staffed up to meet demand. I haven't in-person shopped for groceries since the first week of April. My wfie has gone to our local Crest at odd hours (and no, it wasn't packed at ), wearing an N95 mask we had laying around from a home remodel.

We also use pickup at Urban Agrarian (you call ahead, give them credit card number over the phone, and they put it in your trunk). They have really good quality Oklahoma local beef, chicken, pork, and of course, amazing veggies and lettuces.

d-usa
04-28-2020, 02:24 PM
Here is my break down. They have no clue how many people have this or have had this. How are there near 50,000 negative test? OSDH said Monday that 2,167 Oklahomans have recovered from COVID-19. Nearly 50,000 people have tested negative. If you only getting tested if your showing symptoms why are so many negative? I know it could be other thing but are there really that many sick people walking around with a cough, fever, or shortness of breath? Also symptoms usually show 5-7 days and people usually don't go to the hospital until day 11. https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last So we are a little too so to see it's it's because we have open things up. However go back and what happen around 11 days ago. Payday from the government. People got their checks in the mail and I noticed right away there were way more people out and about. There were others that commented about it also.

Negative tests could be there for a number of reasons, I don’t know how exactly tests are counted but here are some of them:

- Contact/Exposure testing: asymptomatic people being tested because they have contact with a positive case.
- False negatives: symptomatic people with COVID-19 have a negative test result. This is especially problematic with the Rapid Test.
- Repeat tests: I don’t know if the numbers reflect unique tests of unique cases. Some positives get retested to see if the infection clears. Negative rapid tests for symptomatic folks should be retested as a PCR, which could double count that case.
- Screening tests: are some healthcare facilities now texting patients at time of admission for non-COVID related issues? Are prisons testing people prior to release.
Surveillance tests: I think some places have done random surveillance screening to see the number of cases circulating in the community and determine how many are asymptomatic.
Flu season: there isn’t much difference between ILI and CLI so many people probably get tested for both.

Just some of the reasons for testing people who may not be symptomatic, or why some of those negative results may be false negatives.

Edmond Hausfrau
04-28-2020, 02:29 PM
"Everyone" has not been to the grocery store. Geez. There are grocery delivery services that have staffed up to meet demand. I haven't in-person shopped for groceries since the first week of April. My wfie has gone to our local Crest at odd hours (and no, it wasn't packed at ), wearing an N95 mask we had laying around from a home remodel.

We also use pickup at Urban Agrarian (you call ahead, give them credit card number over the phone, and they put it in your trunk). They have really good quality Oklahoma local beef, chicken, pork, and of course, amazing veggies and lettuces.

I'm glad to hear about Urban Agrarian service. Is their inventory on their website? I know they try to keep stuff fresh and organic so I imagine the stock turns over fast.

dankrutka
04-28-2020, 02:35 PM
I know it could be other thing but are there really that many sick people walking around with a cough, fever, or shortness of breath? Also symptoms usually show 5-7 days and people usually don't go to the hospital until day 11.

This is just another example of the complexity of this virus. The symptoms from infected person to person are incredibly inconsistent and seem to potentially be different by geography or demographic. Some people are completely asympotomatic. Others experience loss of taste and smell. Effective treatments are unclear as there are recent questions about even the role of respirators. While older people seemed primarily vulnerable, age is now less of a factor than we thought as young, obese people are very vulnerable. It also increasingly seems like a lot of people are dying at home from COVID-19 and, of course, Oklahoma is testing so little that little is known.

PhiAlpha
04-28-2020, 03:35 PM
If you really believe herd immunity is the only solution then walk the walk and get the virus on purpose. Otherwise, it’s just a way to rationalize putting others in harms way.

No it’s a way to rationalize not guaranteeing the start of a second Great Depression by keeping stay at home orders in effect for another year while we wait for a vaccine.

Bill Robertson
04-28-2020, 03:36 PM
Assuming a 2-3 day infection to hospitalization, Tuesday's numbers represent Friday/Saturday? These are usually our highest numbers of hospitalization

37, 27, 31, 36, 24There seem to be days that they “catch up” with previously unreported stats. Same happened on 4-15 and 4-21. Here’s a graph I put together using Pete’s chart. Each day is a 5 day average (current day and the previous 4). There is a downward trend.
16016

catcherinthewry
04-28-2020, 07:44 PM
There seem to be days that they “catch up” with previously unreported stats. Same happened on 4-15 and 4-21. Here’s a graph I put together using Pete’s chart. Each day is a 5 day average (current day and the previous 4). There is a downward trend.
16016

That's very helpful. Could you do one showing hospitalizations?