I will say regarding the flu, I have had it a few times in my life and twice it sucked but wasn’t horrible. There was this one time I had it I literally thought I was going to die. I couldn’t even move and I honestly started believing that was it. Before that I had never realized how serious the flu could be and that was in my late teens.

In the U.S., there are now over 2,000 deaths per day due to Covid-19 and it's still going up.

That's more than 25,000 deaths in this country and almost all of those have come in one month.

The idea this isn't serious or that we've somehow overreacted is absurd. Just hope we start to get past this soon.

In the U.S., there are now over 2,000 deaths per day due to Covid-19 and it's still going up.

That's more than 25,000 deaths in this country and almost all of those have come in one month.

The idea this isn't serious or that we've somehow overreacted is absurd. Just hope we start to get past this soon. They said it would go up, if I'm not mistaking. Just as the testing got ramped up in the last 2-3 Weeks.

There's a real lack of recognition from some people about how profound the response has been to this pandemic and that's why projections are down... many experts didn't think this type of change could happen this quickly. As Pete pointed out, 25,000 people have officially died in one month (probably more unofficially) despite the fact Americans have changed their lives in unprecedented ways. If a church is open it makes the news now. I keep seeing references to a family in a grocery store or "traffic" on the roads as evidence, but every person I know in OKC has completely changed their routines and work to be almost exclusively at home and hygiene in and out of their house. While there's no question that some projections and models have been off, that does not mean the recommendations of epidemiologists and social scientists were off. It actually seems like they've nailed it. Of course, there is still much we don't know. It seems the biggest problem we face now is a federal failure to prepare to open things up by increasing access to tests, masks, other medical equipment, and associated infrastructure. We need those things to be ready once this first wave slows down so we can open some things up and a second wave doesn't ensue with worse effects.

There's a real lack of recognition from some people about how profound the response has been to this pandemic and that's why projections are down... many experts didn't think this type of change could happen this quickly. As Pete pointed out, 25,000 people have officially died in one month (probably more unofficially) despite the fact Americans have changed their lives in unprecedented ways. If a church is open it makes the news now. I keep seeing references to a family in a grocery store or "traffic" on the roads as evidence, but every person I know in OKC has completely changed their routines and work to be almost exclusively at home and hygiene in and out of their house. While there's no question that some projections and models have been off, that does not mean the recommendations of epidemiologists and social scientists were off. It actually seems like they've nailed it. Of course, there is still much we don't know. It seems the biggest problem we face now is a federal failure to prepare to open things up by increasing access to tests, masks, other medical equipment, and associated infrastructure. We need those things to be ready once this first wave slows down so we can open some things up and a second wave doesn't ensue with worse effects.

Oklahoma is doing relatively well because of our location, our overall lack of density, and the quick and decisive leadership of our mayors in OKC, Norman, Tulsa, which led other mayors to follow suit. The governor deserves credit for closing the churches, as well. But Dan raises a great point. The USA is a giant, diverse country, and it is almost unfathomable how much people have made these major life changes to prevent an utter catastrophe from occurring.

I have no idea how many will ultimately die in the Oklahoma or the US, but as Gov. Cuomo said today, the people deserve the credit for doing what they have to follow these social distancing guidelines. The people deserve a pat on the back for making that happen.

This is an awful virus. I have a work colleague who is young and healthy and health conscious and she has had this for four weeks now. She said it is far worse than any flu or illness she has ever had.

Updated for Wed:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041520a.jpg

So much for the decrease in death rate.

A question I have is if those deaths are deaths that occurred on that day, or that's when they were logged as Coronavirus related. Since they've talked about there being a delay in identifying deaths out of hospitals as Coronavirus related, I'm guessing it's the latter, which makes it harder to look at as a daily ongoing trend tracker. It could also explain why we see weekend variances on these numbers.

A question I have is if those deaths are deaths that occurred on that day, or that's when they were logged as Coronavirus related. Since they've talked about there being a delay in identifying deaths out of hospitals as Coronavirus related, I'm guessing it's the latter, which makes it harder to look at as a daily ongoing trend tracker. It could also explain why we see weekend variances on these numbers.

This tweet provides a little insight on that:

Chris Casteel
@casteelpolitics
A first: Today's update of COVID-19 related deaths in OK includes 11 from the period of April 3-13. The other 4 were in the past 24 hours. Unclear if other deaths reported in the past several weeks occurred outside the 24-hour period between reports, but that would make sense.
11:30 AM · Apr 15, 2020

From the OSDH website: 5 of the deaths in Oklahoma are people from the 18-35 age category.

This tweet provides a little insight on that:

Chris Casteel
@casteelpolitics
A first: Today's update of COVID-19 related deaths in OK includes 11 from the period of April 3-13. The other 4 were in the past 24 hours. Unclear if other deaths reported in the past several weeks occurred outside the 24-hour period between reports, but that would make sense.
11:30 AM · Apr 15, 2020

That makes a lot of sense and I'm happy they're now providing that extra detail.

This tweet provides a little insight on that:

Chris Casteel
@casteelpolitics
A first: Today's update of COVID-19 related deaths in OK includes 11 from the period of April 3-13. The other 4 were in the past 24 hours. Unclear if other deaths reported in the past several weeks occurred outside the 24-hour period between reports, but that would make sense.
11:30 AM · Apr 15, 2020

That's a relief.

Updated for Wed:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041520a.jpg

Hey Pete, I listened to Gov. Cuomo today and he was talking about how they are going to a 3-day rolling average on stats. Any possibility you could work this into your spreadsheet? It is a more telling number of how we are doing on the curve.

Good coverage from Free Press OKC:
https://freepressokc.com/covid-19-starting-to-take-larger-toll-on-rural-counties-as-well-as-urban/

Trend with 3 day average

https://i.imgur.com/IZfxDwr.jpg

Made here: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Trend with 3 day average

https://i.imgur.com/IZfxDwr.jpg

Made here: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Damn, the death rates on that site really put this **** into perspective.

This Virus is a Bad Bitch.

Good coverage from Free Press OKC:
https://freepressokc.com/covid-19-starting-to-take-larger-toll-on-rural-counties-as-well-as-urban/
This came from that article and explains the jump in deaths today.

“Now, they have been working with tribes and other entities to collect data on deaths from the disease adding 11 deaths to their records that occurred from April 3 through April 13.

Four more deaths were added to the count that occurred in the last 24 hours totalling 15 added to the count in the Wednesday report.”

Wow was there a lot of traffic on the roads today. Also every fast food place I drove by at 2:30 in the afternoon was busy. This $1,200 might do more harm then good if people are just going to go out and spend it and start to relax on the staying at home.

Though no one has gotten it yet, I kinda think that's what the money was for, to keep the economy going? Besides, going through a drive-through isn't exactly dangerous (except at Chik-fil-a). ��

nm

Though no one has gotten it yet, I kinda think that's what the money was for, to keep the economy going? Besides, going through a drive-through isn't exactly dangerous (except at Chik-fil-a). ��

We got ours yesterday.

We got ours yesterday.

I am Corrected. I heard today was the day.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-face-masks-andrew-cuomo.html

Is there any *scientific* evidence that homemade or surgical masks stop the spread of coronavirus? Last I heard, they *may* stop 3% of particles/droplets (and pretty much none of the actual virus itself since it's so much smaller than the holes in, much less around the masks).

While I realize there are issues in them getting confirmation people have recovered, but at this point a noticeable percentage of the confirmed cases should have recovered. So it seems odd there is not any sort of at least estimate of how many confirmed cases are still active, verses just continuing to announce total positive cases.

While I realize there are issues in them getting confirmation people have recovered, but at this point a noticeable percentage of the confirmed cases should have recovered. So it seems odd there is not any sort of at least estimate of how many confirmed cases are still active, verses just continuing to announce total positive cases.I complained about that for weeks. But the past couple of weeks many more reports, including the weekday updates from the Oklahoma State DOH list recovered cases.

nm

Updated for Wed:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041520a.jpg It says there is 510 hospitalized. Shouldn't it say what the Oklahoma state dept. of health has currently on their website? Tell me if I'm wrong, but it says there is currently hospitalized 179 (107 in ICU) as of April 14th. I'm guessing most of the 510 have been released and others sadly have passed away.

It says there is 510 hospitalized. Shouldn't it say what the Oklahoma state dept. of health has currently on their website? Tell if I'm wrong, but it says there is currently hospitalized 179 (107) in ICU as of April 14th.

The numbers in the spreadsheet are cumulative totals from here: https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/

The numbers in the spreadsheet are cumulative totals from here: https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/

Thanks

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-face-masks-andrew-cuomo.html

Is there any *scientific* evidence that homemade or surgical masks stop the spread of coronavirus? Last I heard, they *may* stop 3% of particles/droplets (and pretty much none of the actual virus itself since it's so much smaller than the holes in, much less around the masks).

In short, I believe so.

"Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html)" by Zeynep Tufekci


...of course masks work — maybe not perfectly and not all to the same degree, but they provide some protection. Their use has always been advised as part of the standard response to being around infected people, especially for people who may be vulnerable. World Health Organization officials wear masks during their news briefings... It is of course true that masks don’t work perfectly, that they don’t replace hand-washing and social distancing, and that they work better if they fit properly. And of course, surgical masks (the disposable type that surgeons wear) don’t filter out small viral particles the way medical-grade respirator masks rated N95 and above do. However, even surgical masks protect a bit more than not wearing masks at all. We know from flu research that mask-wearing can help decrease transmission rates along with frequent hand-washing and social-distancing. Now that we are facing a respirator mask shortage, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending that surgical masks are “an acceptable alternative” for health care workers — again, obviously because some protection, even if imperfect, is better than none.

She provides a lot more reasons and hyperlinks in the article, but the short answer seems to be, yes. Masks help at least some if you going to be around other people.

Ed Yong argues that it's more complex and sites numerous studies (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/). I've found Tufekci's arguments sound from the beginning.

The numbers in the spreadsheet are cumulative totals from here: https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/

Thanks

I’m by far no expert but I look at any mask like this. The germ and carrier might be smaller than the openings in the material but still have to “find” the openings without getting caught by a thread. Stand 10 feet from a chain link fence and try to randomly throw ping pong balls through the openings. They’re plenty small enough to fit through but the vast majority won’t get through.

The numbers in the spreadsheet are cumulative totals from here: https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/Except for studying the spread and other academic uses I don’t understand why cumulative is so important as to publish it everywhere instead of current. If health facility and health supplies availability is the most important aspect of controlling the spread then it seems to me that current numbers are way more important than cumulative.

Except for studying the spread and other academic uses I don’t understand why cumulative is so important as to publish it everywhere instead of current. If health facility and health supplies availability is the most important aspect of controlling the spread then it seems to me that current numbers are way more important than cumulative.

The other numbers weren't available until recently and thus you can't create a trend report. Also, trying to include every little detail does not work when posting a graphic image on social media.

It's not meant to be comprehensive and be everything to everyone. But there is value at looking at some high-level trends over several weeks.

People are starting to get antsy. They now have money in their accounts again and they are going to start going out more. Whether it drive-thru, Lowes, Home Depot who knows but that scares me. People think we have flatten the curve. Maybe we have but this is far far far from being over with.

^

Yeah, 2-3 weeks is a fun little vacation of sorts but few people are used to being home so much and being relatively idle.

I'm really starting to get itchy, especially because I derive energy from interacting with others.

^

Yeah, 2-3 weeks is a fun little vacation of sorts but few people are used to being home so much and being relatively idle.

I'm really starting to get itchy, especially because I derive energy from interacting with others.

I feel you 100%. Going completely stir crazy.

15977

In short, I believe so.

"Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html)" by Zeynep Tufekci



She provides a lot more reasons and hyperlinks in the article, but the short answer seems to be, yes. Masks help at least some if you going to be around other people.

Ed Yong argues that it's more complex and sites numerous studies (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/). I've found Tufekci's arguments sound from the beginning.

I didn't read every line of these articles, but none of what I read seems to have answered TheTravellers question. The question was if homemade masks are effective, and everything seems to point to the need that they at least be surgical masks. Here's a great video showing homemade masks efficacy:


https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20200403/video-mascarillas-caseras-ineficaces-coronavirus-7916576?jwsource=cl

Not to say a better one can't be made than what was presented, but there has to be more effort than cutting up some fabric and fashioning a mask.

People are starting to get antsy. They now have money in their accounts again and they are going to start going out more. Whether it drive-thru, Lowes, Home Depot who knows but that scares me. People think we have flatten the curve. Maybe we have but this is far far far from being over with.

Friend Message me Braums they work at over 450 cars by 6pm that is really really really busy. It's fairly safe to do drive thru but there still a risk there. Handling of the cups, bags, money, credit cards, straws, ketchup packets. Not to mention your coming close to 6 feet when they are handing your food or taking money out the window. Your touching at lot of things if your not careful.

People are starting to get antsy. They now have money in their accounts again and they are going to start going out more. Whether it drive-thru, Lowes, Home Depot who knows but that scares me. People think we have flatten the curve. Maybe we have but this is far far far from being over with.

Then I have some very bad news for you - this won't end even after we get a vaccine. It will be like the flu, since this virus, like influenza, mutates.

New scientific study just out that further confirms the need for masks if near people at all: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

I feel you 100%. Going completely stir crazy.

Total opposite. Being around people make me feel drained and need of plenty of time to recharge. In short, I am loving this social distancing, however I do find some pleasure in shorter interactions with people. Like occasionally meeting for a drink for an hour or so. Other than that, leave me at home or left to be out and about in solitude. Camping or biking alone. :) YMMV

I feel you 100%. Going completely stir crazy.

Same. I love my wife and son but I need interaction with others. That's why I could never wfh fulltime. I thrive on interacting with my colleagues.

Does this happen during flu season? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

Total opposite. Being around people make me feel drained and need of plenty of time to recharge. In short, I am loving this social distancing, however I do find some pleasure in shorter interactions with people. Like occasionally meeting for a drink for an hour or so. Other than that, leave me at home or left to be out and about in solitude. Camping or biking alone. :) YMMV

Heh, I'm the same way. It's like "social distancing? I call this Tuesday!"

My wife and my oldest son on the other hand are about to go stir crazy. It doesn't help that my son hasn't seen his girlfriend in a few weeks now.

Numbers just updated for Thursday:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041620a.jpg

Does this happen during flu season? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

If the flu was way more deadly like the novel caronavirus is, then it probably would.

If the flu was way more deadly like the novel caronavirus is, then it probably would.

No probably to it. There are stories every year about nursing homes getting hit hard with the flu. It seems like there was one last year (or the year before) in Nebraska that had to shut down temporarily, and I know it's common to have a massive flu outbreak at a long term care facility (which brings up whole issues about if changes need to be made). Luckily, as you said, the flu is not as deadly so it doesn't have the impact. It's typically a few deaths and a high infected rate.

Does this happen during flu season? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html

Geeeeezzzz.

I think this is my biggest problem with how the government has handled all of this: We've known for plenty of time that the vast majority of people who will die from this virus and who would cause strain on the health system were people over 60. No matter to what degree you think day to day "normal" life should be shut down or not, I think we can all agree that government massively failed to put both simple and strategic protections in place for the elderly.

I could write paragraphs on different things we could have done to limit the exposure to the elderly, but ultimately, that was the president's, congress's, governors', and mayors' jobs to lead on that front. Nursing homes having these kinds of body counts shows the ugliest side of our response to this whole thing.

Something I noticed. Yesterday morning rush hour was higher than Tue. Not by a lot but some. Yesterday afternoon was much heavier than morning.

But this morning was markedly higher than any recent days. It doubled from yesterday morning. I know federal deposits were made but that wouldn’t increase highway traffic thats going to be local streets. Today on turnpike and 235, both were much higher than anything post crisis.

My guess is some more workers got called back?

IRS website...was linked to an account we closed. Wife logged in yesterday afternoon and had no issues changing the account to one that’s current. ( other than coming up with tax information they asked about 2019 and 2018 taxes before they gave her access. )

Then I have some very bad news for you - this won't end even after we get a vaccine. It will be like the flu, since this virus, like influenza, mutates.

I agree with you but not necessarily because of the mutations. It'll take months to give enough people the vaccine to develop herd immunity, even after a vaccine is developed, tested, and approved. Many people will not get vaccinated either because of cost, misinformation, or just plain stupidity. Hopefully enough people will become immune that hospitals can deal with those who aren't with treatments to keep them from dying, and we'll just have to learn to deal with ongoing waves of infections.

Here's a summary of some of the treatments being tested right now:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-the-most-touted-drugs-tested-for-covid-19/

and here's a good article about mutations and a vaccine: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html

"Among the thousands of samples of the long strand of RNA that makes up the coronavirus, 11 mutations have become fairly common. But as far as we know, it’s the same virus infecting people all over the world, meaning that only one “strain” of the virus exists, said Peter Thielen, a molecular biologist with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

Only one of those common mutations affects the “spike protein,” which enables the virus to infect cells in the throat and lungs. Efforts to produce antibodies that block the spike protein are central to many efforts to develop a vaccine. Since the spike protein has changed little so far, some scientists believe that’s a sign that it can’t alter itself very much and remain infectious."

Geeeeezzzz.

I think this is my biggest problem with how the government has handled all of this: We've known for plenty of time that the vast majority of people who will die from this virus and who would cause strain on the health system were people over 60. No matter to what degree you think day to day "normal" life should be shut down or not, I think we can all agree that government massively failed to put both simple and strategic protections in place for the elderly.

I could write paragraphs on different things we could have done to limit the exposure to the elderly, but ultimately, that was the president's, congress's, governors', and mayors' jobs to lead on that front. Nursing homes having these kinds of body counts shows the ugliest side of our response to this whole thing.

Is that not also the responsibility of the privately owned facilities themselves to protect their residents? It's been known since January that this disease adversely affects the elderly and these long term care facilities are supposed to be run by medical professionals who should be the most knowledgeable on how to avoid outbreaks at these facilities based on what they have to deal with every year from the flu to other illnesses/viruses. The government/CDC can propose guidelines which they have done (I'm sure they could've done a better job...I don't know that anyone has truly handled this perfectly) but they can't take over the facilities on their own and lock them down. Again, I'm sure the government could've done more but it would seem that most of the responsibility lands on the facilities themselves...caring for the elderly is their one job and their primary field of expertise, they would seem to be in a much better position than the government to protect themselves.

Geeeeezzzz.

I think this is my biggest problem with how the government has handled all of this: We've known for plenty of time that the vast majority of people who will die from this virus and who would cause strain on the health system were people over 60. No matter to what degree you think day to day "normal" life should be shut down or not, I think we can all agree that government massively failed to put both simple and strategic protections in place for the elderly.

I could write paragraphs on different things we could have done to limit the exposure to the elderly, but ultimately, that was the president's, congress's, governors', and mayors' jobs to lead on that front. Nursing homes having these kinds of body counts shows the ugliest side of our response to this whole thing.

A good percentage of our death count is coming from nursing homes, but yet we haven't taken "extraordinary" measures to protect keep infections contain at these facilities

Same. I love my wife and son but I need interaction with others. That's why I could never wfh fulltime. I thrive on interacting with my colleagues.

Ha! I worked from home for 5 years. The majority of the time was in a sales/BD role that required constant communication with prospects/clients and a bunch of travel. That wasn't too bad. The other portion of that time I worked in a roll that required much less interaction and it felt pretty isolating. Over the last year I took on a new job and was back in the office for the first time in a long time and I definitely prefer that over working from home in general.

Total opposite. Being around people make me feel drained and need of plenty of time to recharge. In short, I am loving this social distancing, however I do find some pleasure in shorter interactions with people. Like occasionally meeting for a drink for an hour or so. Other than that, leave me at home or left to be out and about in solitude. Camping or biking alone. :) YMMV

It's really interesting how this whole thing has landed with people. My wife is much as you describe yourself in regards to social interactions but even she's starting to reach her limits and has been questioning how introverted she really is after nearly a month of this (I'm sure being stuck here with me the whole time has something to do with it :p;)) and is now dying to get back into group settings.

It says there is 510 hospitalized. Shouldn't it say what the Oklahoma state dept. of health has currently on their website? Tell me if I'm wrong, but it says there is currently hospitalized 179 (107 in ICU) as of April 14th. I'm guessing most of the 510 have been released and others sadly have passed away.

We have been hovering between 150 to 200 currently hospitalized since the beginning of the month. So we have been at a plateau for awhile now.

This chart start should probably be titled "Model Revisions" as opposed to "Our Curve is Flattening".
15983

Geeeeezzzz.

I think this is my biggest problem with how the government has handled all of this: We've known for plenty of time that the vast majority of people who will die from this virus and who would cause strain on the health system were people over 60. No matter to what degree you think day to day "normal" life should be shut down or not, I think we can all agree that government massively failed to put both simple and strategic protections in place for the elderly.

I could write paragraphs on different things we could have done to limit the exposure to the elderly, but ultimately, that was the president's, congress's, governors', and mayors' jobs to lead on that front. Nursing homes having these kinds of body counts shows the ugliest side of our response to this whole thing.

I agree the we need to protect the older generation more. If things want to open back up there needs to be way more testing and the younger crowd under 40 if you will needs to me the ones out first. Testing really is the key though. I we could test thousands a day for antibodies and have results in 24 hours it would be a game changer.

Is that not also the responsibility of the privately owned facilities themselves to protect their residents? It's been known since January that this disease adversely affects the elderly and these long term care facilities are supposed to be run by medical professionals who should be the most knowledgeable on how to avoid outbreaks at these facilities based on what they have to deal with every year from the flu to other illnesses/viruses. The government/CDC can propose guidelines which they have done (I'm sure they could've done a better job...I don't know that anyone has truly handled this perfectly) but they can't take over the facilities on their own and lock them down. Again, I'm sure the government could've done more but it would seem that most of the responsibility lands on the facilities themselves...caring for the elderly is their one job and their primary field of expertise, they would seem to be in a much better position than the government to protect themselves.

It's both the Nursing home and the Government's job to protect their patients and citizens respectively.

A quick google search tells me there are approximately ~15,600 longer-term care facilities in the US.
It also tells me the National Guard has about 450,000 people.

It would have been so unbelievably easy to station guards women and men as de facto security and policy enforcers at these facilities to ensure that we knew exactly who was in/out and be able to better manage contact tracing. The policies would basically state that the only people in are those who are caring for these elderly, and that those people would need to undergo vigorous testing and quarantine procedures. Incoming shipments of food/etc would be highly managed.

Strict policing of the most vulnerable population would have allowed the less vulnerable to maintain a more normal day to day existence and build up herd immunity amongst those that were least likely to exhibit symptoms and eventually need to go to the hospital.