Getting very tired of the nasty tone, sarcasm and thinly veiled political posts.

Some of you are going to get furloughed from OKCTak.

If we don’t get reopened there will be nothing to go back to.

For me I am gonna support as many local business as possible. No home cooking for 2 months. I’ll go to the bar and get a copy of Gazette that I hope Pete is able to print. I’ll scan advertisers and make a point of going there to eat. I’ll tell the food place I saw the ad in Gazette so they will buy more ads from Pete. Pete will then rehire more workers. The food place will rehire more workers.

60 days of max spending like this will get places back on their feet. I remain optimistic about how many people are tired of eating at home and will eat out this helping small business. I’ll eat out breakfast and lunch too.

The key to this is getting things reopened. Mayor and Governor will have to do this. If more people start to contact them about opening they can start task forces on it. Thats what it will take.

It obviously isn't just Trump saying it works...several doctors and medical professionals have tried it and generally have said it helps as well. Just keep going acting like he's the only one saying it may help Covid patients though...because its convenient for you.

Could you share with us the expierience your family friend went through using this?

If we don’t get reopened there will be nothing to go back to.

For me I am gonna support as many local business as possible. No home cooking for 2 months. I’ll go to the bar and get a copy of Gazette that I hope Pete is able to print. I’ll scan advertisers and make a point of going there to eat. I’ll tell the food place I saw the ad in Gazette so they will buy more ads from Pete. Pete will then rehire more workers. The food place will rehire more workers.

60 days of max spending like this will get places back on their feet. I remain optimistic about how many people are tired of eating at home and will eat out this helping small business. I’ll eat out breakfast and lunch too.

The key to this is getting things reopened. Mayor and Governor will have to do this. If more people start to contact them about opening they can start task forces on it. Thats what it will take.

Very worried that people are going to be tight with their money for quite a while. Many/most have taken a big financial hit.

Very worried that people are going to be tight with their money for quite a while. Many/most have taken a big financial hit.

Don’t forget the example I listed earlier where quite a few furlough folks will make more money to not work. Plus all the $1,200 checks. And folks like me are gonna overcompensate to help kick start things. Lots of people I know feel the same. They need to clothes shop and eat and do car maintenance and all sorts of spendy type things. Plus weather is getting better to be outside and that actually helps distancing if they have outside seating.

The key is getting reopened before too long. Those companies furloughing need an open economy to bring folks back.

I'm sticking to the advice of Dr. F, and deferring to his judgement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=19&v=fqg2kQDlPKw&feature=emb_title

Press reease:

OSDH Releases COVID-19 Modeling for Oklahoma, Estimates April 21 Peak
On the heels of more than 22,000 specimens tested for COVID-19 in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) released today its modeling to forecast how the COVID-19 pandemic could occur in the state through May 1.

Authored by Aaron M. Wendelboe, PhD; Justin Dvorak, PhD; and Michael P. Anderson, PhD, the COVID-19 modeling identifies the following key metrics for Oklahoma:

Date of peak: April 21

· Number of New Cases at the Peak: 436
· Number of Deaths at the Peak: 22
· Number of New Hospitalizations at the Peak: 131
· Number of People in the Hospital for COVID at the Peak: 915
· Number of People in the ICU for COVID at the Peak: 458

Cumulative Number of COVID-19-positive cases by May 1: 9,300

Cumulative Number of Deaths by May 1: 469 deaths

“Over the past week, Oklahoma has significantly increased COVID-19 testing data due to expanded capacity at labs and more than 80 mobile testing locations across the state,” said Dr. Aaron Wendelboe, interim state epidemiologist. “This new data gave our team of epidemiologists stronger insight to forecast a COVID-19 model for the State of Oklahoma. At this point, we are estimating that Oklahoma will hit peak demand on hospitals, ICU beds, and other critical medical supplies around April 21.”

A copy of OSDH’s COVID-19 forecasting can be read by clicking here (https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/OKSDH/2020/04/10/file_attachments/1424634/osdh_transmission_dynamics_model-eng3.pdf), which includes charts and an explanation of modeling methodology.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041020b.jpg

Could you share with us the expierience your family friend went through using this?

The drug seemed to help improve his vitals and reduce his dependence on the ventilator. They started administering it when he was rapidly going downhill and they thought it helped improve and stabilize his condition. They thought his dependence on the ventilator and his condition had improved enough to start bringing him out of sedation but after four days, his vitals were stable but he never regained consciousness. Prior to the drug being administered he was having blood circulation issues so they think he may have had a stoke or another complication. As far as the drug goes it seemed to improve his condition but it was administered very late in the game so it may have been a case of too little too late, or recovery unfortunately just wasn’t in the cards for him.

^ Thank you for your post. You are the only one I know who could offer any personal knowledge. Sorry for your loss.

Those in fear of going back to work or out to eat must really struggle driving a car (35k dead per year) or catching the flu (30k to 60k dead per year). Think about how many car accidents we have every morning pre-CV. The plotter is littered with them. Each one is a potential death. Basically some need to lock themselves up in houses for rest of their lives.

I do not want to be the infection vector that kills my 70 year old boss, or my mother, or my co-worker that I know to be immunocompromised because of his medical history. Or just random old people I walk by at the supermarket.

^ Thank you for your post. You are the only one I know who could offer any personal knowledge. Sorry for your loss.

Thank you!

Press reease:

OSDH Releases COVID-19 Modeling for Oklahoma, Estimates April 21 Peak
On the heels of more than 22,000 specimens tested for COVID-19 in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) released today its modeling to forecast how the COVID-19 pandemic could occur in the state through May 1.

Authored by Aaron M. Wendelboe, PhD; Justin Dvorak, PhD; and Michael P. Anderson, PhD, the COVID-19 modeling identifies the following key metrics for Oklahoma:

Date of peak: April 21

· Number of New Cases at the Peak: 436
· Number of Deaths at the Peak: 22
· Number of New Hospitalizations at the Peak: 131
· Number of People in the Hospital for COVID at the Peak: 915
· Number of People in the ICU for COVID at the Peak: 458

Cumulative Number of COVID-19-positive cases by May 1: 9,300

Cumulative Number of Deaths by May 1: 469 deaths

“Over the past week, Oklahoma has significantly increased COVID-19 testing data due to expanded capacity at labs and more than 80 mobile testing locations across the state,” said Dr. Aaron Wendelboe, interim state epidemiologist. “This new data gave our team of epidemiologists stronger insight to forecast a COVID-19 model for the State of Oklahoma. At this point, we are estimating that Oklahoma will hit peak demand on hospitals, ICU beds, and other critical medical supplies around April 21.”

A copy of OSDH’s COVID-19 forecasting can be read by clicking here (https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/OKSDH/2020/04/10/file_attachments/1424634/osdh_transmission_dynamics_model-eng3.pdf), which includes charts and an explanation of modeling methodology.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041020b.jpg

Great! Looks like the peak has moved closed again. More testing is always a good idea. I'm glad they have ramped it up.

Don’t forget the example I listed earlier where quite a few furlough folks will make more money to not work. Plus all the $1,200 checks. And folks like me are gonna overcompensate to help kick start things. Lots of people I know feel the same. They need to clothes shop and eat and do car maintenance and all sorts of spendy type things. Plus weather is getting better to be outside and that actually helps distancing if they have outside seating.

The key is getting reopened before too long. Those companies furloughing need an open economy to bring folks back.

I would sign an online pledge to eat out once a week at place that advertised with Pete. If enough of us signed up Pete could use it to sell ads.

I do not want to be the infection vector that kills my 70 year old boss, or my mother, or my co-worker that I know to be immunocompromised because of his medical history. Or just random old people I walk by at the supermarket.

I totally get it, I really do. But life comes with risk too we will never eliminate risk. You could be hit by a drunk driver on your way to meet your boss. Or T-boned at an intersection. All I’m saying is we can’t keep the country closed due to some risk. This is not a 2,500,000 death event. Even mowing the yard has risk. Everything has risk. We have to weigh the risks. Unemployed people will have higher domestic abuse and suicides. Are they not important?

Oklahoma hospitals to receive nearly $500 million in federal aid

Oklahoma hospitals will receive nearly $500 million in the first set of funds approved by Congress to help hospitals make up for lost revenue during the pandemic.--Oklahoman, 04-10-2020

I do not want to be the infection vector that kills my 70 year old boss, or my mother, or my co-worker that I know to be immunocompromised because of his medical history. Or just random old people I walk by at the supermarket.

Until you can get quick results from testing, you will probably need to stay away from these people well into 2021.

Press reease:

OSDH Releases COVID-19 Modeling for Oklahoma, Estimates April 21 Peak
On the heels of more than 22,000 specimens tested for COVID-19 in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) released today its modeling to forecast how the COVID-19 pandemic could occur in the state through May 1.

Authored by Aaron M. Wendelboe, PhD; Justin Dvorak, PhD; and Michael P. Anderson, PhD, the COVID-19 modeling identifies the following key metrics for Oklahoma:

Date of peak: April 21

· Number of New Cases at the Peak: 436
· Number of Deaths at the Peak: 22
· Number of New Hospitalizations at the Peak: 131
· Number of People in the Hospital for COVID at the Peak: 915
· Number of People in the ICU for COVID at the Peak: 458

Cumulative Number of COVID-19-positive cases by May 1: 9,300

Cumulative Number of Deaths by May 1: 469 deaths

“Over the past week, Oklahoma has significantly increased COVID-19 testing data due to expanded capacity at labs and more than 80 mobile testing locations across the state,” said Dr. Aaron Wendelboe, interim state epidemiologist. “This new data gave our team of epidemiologists stronger insight to forecast a COVID-19 model for the State of Oklahoma. At this point, we are estimating that Oklahoma will hit peak demand on hospitals, ICU beds, and other critical medical supplies around April 21.”

A copy of OSDHÂ’s COVID-19 forecasting can be read by clicking here (https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/OKSDH/2020/04/10/file_attachments/1424634/osdh_transmission_dynamics_model-eng3.pdf), which includes charts and an explanation of modeling methodology.



Lets keep in mind that people leave a hospital bed or ICU one way or another. So that number of people in the hospital at peak is not accurate.

I have been keeping track of the hospitalizations. We have been pretty flat for a week. About the same number of people going in as people leaving/dying.


Date Currently Hospitalized Currently ICU
9-Apr 186 122
8-Apr 188 120
7-Apr 186 137
6-Apr 161 104
3-Apr 171 123
2-Apr 182 144
1-Apr 174 98
31-Mar 177 83
30-Mar 153 103
27-Mar 50
26-Mar 41

Source: https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/executive-order-reports

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says

Listing this to put deaths in perspective and tamp down some of the hysteria media creates. This is year 2017 data:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Listing this to put deaths in perspective and tamp down some of the hysteria media creates. This is year 2017 data:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Thanks for this list. I'll be sure to try and not catch cancer or a car accident from the guy sitting next to me on the bus.

Thanks for this list. I'll be sure to try and not catch cancer or a car accident from the guy sitting next to me on the bus.

My point of the list is it doesn’t have to either/or. We can still use precautions yet start opening economy. The problem I find is people can’t have honest discussions without being labeled (in regards to deaths). No death is good. But the cure can also be worse than the problem too. Would we shut down all traffic in the country due to car deaths? Or shut down for annual flu? No, we use precautions.

You will start hearing more and more about deaths caused by staying home and people running out of money or losing their business. Domestic abuse is ramped up by money problems and so is suicide. I posted Mar domestics from OKC year over year and it was markedly increased this Mar. And we didn’t even start distancing until mid-late Mar.

We will have to find a compromise soon and it will take discussions at high levels to find our best path.

Here’s a great example of the other toll isolation is having:


Meet the Press
@MeetThePress
WATCH: Suicide prevention hotline calls spike amid pandemic.

@PattersonNBC
: In Los Angeles, they are "seeing an incredible uptick in the number of calls related to COVID. In February, there were 20 calls or so. That number has increased exponentially ... to 1800+."

https://mobile.twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1248673281823080448

How would you feel telling a dying person "Sorry you can't get this treatment that might actually work because we're trying something that we know doesn't, just in case it's different this time!"

Because it is proven to have an effect on some people. It was being used overseas before COVID took hold here and lve provided the link on here to a Dr. in Denver used (as of 4 days ago) 12 of his patients, all of whom showed a reversal of symptoms. This simply isn't something off of a Sharknado movie but a treatment that has some effect.

If authorities want to say to doctors to prescribe it if they see fit or upon patient request, then give it! In states like New York which has prevented the average hospital Doctor from prescribing it is just simply wrong and could be costing lives.

Until you can get quick results from testing, you will probably need to stay away from these people well into 2021.

Tests are out shortly cutting wait time to minutes. They just need to be approved, manufactured in bulk and distributed.

Personally, as a 60+, if a reliable treatment is created to keep me from dying, l would be happy. I go out with the fear of the flu because l know my chances of dying are very low. Just greatly reduce COVID deathsvi older folks and it becomes an acceptable risk.

Thanks for this list. I'll be sure to try and not catch cancer or a car accident from the guy sitting next to me on the bus.
Your post is a great example of why those in leadership can't just declare victory. The public has to accept the decision based on hard facts. The mayor can open the restaurants but he can't mandate asses in seats.

I previously posted that I had received a Rapid Test from a clinic in Moore (got my results in 10 minutes). One member here even seemed to question that reality.

KFOR did a story on the clinic today. The clinic has two locations (Norman and Moore).

Story: Rapid Testing from Antibodies can Show if you Already Recovered from COVID-19. https://kfor.com/health/coronavirus/rapid-testing-from-antibodies-can-show-if-you-already-recovered-from-covid-19/

Body: "NORMAN, Okla.- A local urgent care has been administering antibody tests that not only possibly show if you currently have COVID-19, but also if you’ve recovered from it.

“We were able to get this test because we are partnered up with a lab that is highly complex,” said Hussein Torbati, PA-C, Classen Urgent Care Clinic.

Torbati says the simple test is just another way to test for COVID-19. With just a small prick of the finger, that’s it.

“It’s essentially one drop of blood,” Torbati said.

The test detects two types of antibodies to determine if someone currently has COVID-19, or if they had it before and since recovered.

But not all clinics can perform this test. Torbati says because it’s classified as a “high complexity test” you would normally have to get tested at a lab or a hospital.

“We really, really would love the government to make an executive order to make these tests waived under complexity level so it can be available in all clinics,” Torbati said.

The FDA says in the early days of infection, while the body’s immune response is kicking in, “antibodies may not be detected.” That’s why the antibodies test should not be used as a sole basis to diagnosis COVID-19. You should still get a PCR nasal swab test to be sure.

Torbati says some of the people he has tested had positive results but showed no symptoms of the virus.

News 4’s Jacklyn Chappell and photojournalist Laura Hess did the test. Thankfully, both their results were negative.

“It was as simple as checking someone’s blood sugar, with results almost as fast,” said Ross Pelton, who also had the test done.

Pelton got the same test done at a metro lab. His results were also negative. He was hoping if he already had the virus, he could donate plasma to help other COVID-19 patients fight it off.

“Anyone who suspects they might have already had coronavirus without any symptoms should go ahead and get this test and find out for sure,” Pelton said.

“If we could test as many people, if not all the people, and start isolating the ones that are positive, we could actually make a difference,” Torbati said."

...
“Anyone who suspects they might have already had coronavirus without any symptoms should go ahead and get this test and find out for sure,” Pelton said.
...

:confused: Why would someone suspect they had it if they never had any symptoms?

:confused: Why would someone suspect they had it if they never had any symptoms?

Because everyone knows you can be an asymptomatic carrier. I know several people with no symptoms who were tested because they came into close contact with someone that was confirmed as having the virus. It's actually very common. The health dept. has contacted many many people and had them tested because they were identified as coming into contact with a person who developed symptoms. It's also a good idea for people that have to care for those who are at risk.

Because everyone knows you can be an asymptomatic carrier. I know several people with no symptoms who were tested because they came into close contact with someone that was confirmed as having the virus. It's actually very common. The health dept. has contacted many many people and had them tested because they were identified as coming into contact with a person who developed symptoms. It's also a good idea for people that have to care for those who are at risk.

They called us before they were testing everyone and told us we had come in contact with a person known to have been infected. That was 9 days after the contact. No recommendation to get tested at that time, just wait it out and see if symptoms develop. That changed about a week ago when they started testing people in that situation. We waited out the 14 days and didn't develop Covid 19. There was no other choice at that time.

They called us before they were testing everyone and told us we had come in contact with a person known to have been infected. That was 9 days after the contact. No recommendation to get tested at that time, just wait it out and see if symptoms develop. That changed about a week ago when they started testing people in that situation. We waited out the 14 days and didn't develop Covid 19. There was no other choice at that time.

Initially they were asking people to self-quarantine and monitor themselves for any symptoms. Most likely because tests were not available and they didn't realize how many asymptomatic people were actually out there. I now know two people who have died from CV-19. I know for certain on the most recent the Health Dept. got in touch with people who had close contact and directed them on how to get tested and urged them to do so.

Numbers just updated for Friday:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041020a.jpg

Does anybody know if the number if deaths listed are exclusive to hospitals?

Initially they were asking people to self-quarantine and monitor themselves for any symptoms. Most likely because tests were not available and they didn't realize how many asymptomatic people were actually out there. I now know two people who have died from CV-19. I know for certain on the most recent the Health Dept. got in touch with people who had close contact and directed them on how to get tested and urged them to do so.

Ok but 3 weeks ago when this all started I'm pretty sure a co-worker had it. She went home and mailed everyone she was short of breath and coughing but no fever. She couldn't get tested back then as you needed all 3 symptoms. So did I have it then. I showed no symptoms. I don't want to go waste a test to see.

Updated for Saturday:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041120a.jpg

I know weekends numbers are “off” but compared to last Saturdays those look good.

Do the numbers include Federal hospitals located within the state(PHS, VA, Military bases), Veteran Centers, Nursing Homes?

I know weekends numbers are “off” but compared to last Saturdays those look good.

I'm thinking the weekend drop would be reflected in Saturday-to-Sunday/Sunday-to-Monday numbers, but either way, I agree. The total positive doubling rate is now toward 9 days, and the hospitalization doubling rate is at 10 days.

I would sure like the OK Health Department to revisit the peak projection they released the other day. It seems the daily observable case projection is substantially overestimated. If we have a 9-day doubling rate, that would put us at 3600 cases by 4/20, and then 7200 by 4/29. It'd then require 1,000 cases per day for two days to even approach the 9,300 projection by May 1.

Again, not being critical of the model beyond saying some of the assumptions and underlying data might need to be revisited.

Though Oklahoma has not done a great job with our lock down, it's pretty clear our measures have substantially "flattened the curve".

As of the 4/10 Executive report, we were at the lowest gross number current hospitalized since the reports started on 4/1 (weekends don't get executive reports). We're now up to 40% of people who have been hospitalized leaving the hospital alive. It does look like the rate of death for those hospitalized may be expanding slightly (1%/2%), but not bad. Which is the exact direction you want to go if more people are still being hospitalized.

I think if there is an assumption/data point that needs to be revisited it's just how many people don't show symptoms though they have this. How we conquer this thing has been very clear from the start: 1. Herd Immunity -OR- 2. Vaccine. Since #2 is a ways off, any positive direction in the numbers vis-a-vis the models and in spite of taking less than exceptional measures can only be attributed to a misunderstanding of the collective immunity to this or the capacity of the virus to spread.

Because everyone knows you can be an asymptomatic carrier. I know several people with no symptoms who were tested because they came into close contact with someone that was confirmed as having the virus. It's actually very common. The health dept. has contacted many many people and had them tested because they were identified as coming into contact with a person who developed symptoms. It's also a good idea for people that have to care for those who are at risk.

Yes, well aware of asymptomatic people, and yeah, when you add contact tracing into the mix, it makes more sense. It makes no sense for someone that's walking around with no symptoms, that knows nobody with symptoms (or a confirmed case), and has no contact with anybody that is at risk, it was just phrased poorly. "Hey, I don't have symptoms, got nothing better to do, why not go get a test?" at this point is kind of silly. In the (near) future, however, there should be hugely widespread testing (for both the virus and antibodies).

Though Oklahoma has not done a great job with our lock down, it's pretty clear our measures have substantially "flattened the curve".

As of the 4/10 Executive report, we were at the lowest gross number current hospitalized since the reports started on 4/1 (weekends don't get executive reports). We're now up to 40% of people who have been hospitalized leaving the hospital alive. It does look like the rate of death for those hospitalized may be expanding slightly (1%/2%), but not bad. Which is the exact direction you want to go if more people are still being hospitalized.

I think if there is an assumption/data point that needs to be revisited it's just how many people don't show symptoms though they have this. How we conquer this thing has been very clear from the start: 1. Herd Immunity -OR- 2. Vaccine. Since #2 is a ways off, any positive direction in the numbers vis-a-vis the models and in spite of taking less than exceptional measures can only be attributed to a misunderstanding of the collective immunity to this or the capacity of the virus to spread.

Great points above, and reasons for cautious optimism. It's clear this began spreading in Oklahoma in late February / First week of March. It seems we have probably cycled through most of those initial transmissions. Now we are dealing with the cave people still crowding stores shoulder to shoulder and having their underground gatherings.

Eventually, natural selection will become a real things.

Because our media have been ravaged by layoffs, it's a shame we don't have more reporting. For example, I would love to understand how Greer County in SW Oklahoma, which has no air force base or large installation or even sizable community (Mangum?), has like 46 cases and four deaths. What happened there?

Now that testing is more widely available, we can feel somewhat greater confidence in the numbers we are seeing.

One wonders what will happen when we 'open everything up' in the coming days, weeks, months.

Interesting article about it being in California way earlier than what everyone thinks.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-11/bay-area-coronavirus-deaths-signs-of-earlier-spread-california

Would be very interested to know when everyone thinks it was first in Oklahoma? I think I had it at the end of February. Obviously the longer it’s been here the better.

Ok but 3 weeks ago when this all started I'm pretty sure a co-worker had it. She went home and mailed everyone she was short of breath and coughing but no fever. She couldn't get tested back then as you needed all 3 symptoms. So did I have it then. I showed no symptoms. I don't want to go waste a test to see.

Okay? So, are you saying your opinion should set the standard? Regardless, how are you 'wasting' a test if you have a valid reason to be tested? Makes absolutely no sense. No to mention it was a private lab open to the public with hardly anyone seeking a test there. They have so many tests there is no 'qualifying' to purchase one.

Yes, well aware of asymptomatic people, and yeah, when you add contact tracing into the mix, it makes more sense. It makes no sense for someone that's walking around with no symptoms, that knows nobody with symptoms (or a confirmed case), and has no contact with anybody that is at risk, it was just phrased poorly. "Hey, I don't have symptoms, got nothing better to do, why not go get a test?" at this point is kind of silly. In the (near) future, however, there should be hugely widespread testing (for both the virus and antibodies).

That's the difference. I think you answered your own question.

As far as Mangum, one of the tv stations had a bit on their website about it. I think someone brought it into a nursing home and it spread around there and from there to the community.

Interesting article about it being in California way earlier than what everyone thinks.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-11/bay-area-coronavirus-deaths-signs-of-earlier-spread-california

Would be very interested to know when everyone thinks it was first in Oklahoma? I think I had it at the end of February. Obviously the longer it’s been here the better. Our neighbors Daughter and Boyfriend live out in LA. They didn't come home for Christmas due to both of them being sick with flu like symptoms. Both took flu test and came back negative, so decided to stick it out. Now they are getting antibodies testing to see if they can help. Sounds like it was here earlier than thought.

If I recall correctly, the conventional wisdom was that 80% of people who contracted the virus would should minor or no symptoms and 20% would show more acute symptoms and 5% would be hospitalized.

I find it easy to believe that 20% of those with acute symptoms end up hospitalized. What I'm finding more and more difficult to believe is that 20% of those who contract the virus have acute symptoms. It seems like it is substantially higher than 80% of people who exhibit zero or relatively minor symptoms, and if that's the case, every percentage point over 80% that that applies to has a near exponential effect on how cautious we must tread.

It's obviously a virus we can't take lightly, but if we underestimated the R0 factor and/or overshot the acute symptoms factor, both of which are reasonable "failures" given the limited time the scientific community has had too study this virus, then we do have to reconsider our overall response.

Ultimately, science largely depends on data, and data is clearly what we have had the least of in this whole process.

.....
Eventually, natural selection will become a real things.....

This is interesting. Do you mean actual natural selection in real-time within a short timeframe? The proof of science concepts show that it was actually natural selection that ruled out the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a laboratory. That was of initial paramount importance. There is no natural selection taking place in the passage of this virus in humans. Many people think something like that is occurring -- it's not. But, it has almost certainly taken place in cell culture over time as the "mother virus" (SARS-CoV) has been in labs, and in the wild, for many years. It's that change and its Var 2 relationship to receptor ACE2 that is so interesting and confirmative of the the virus in a natural, selected, state.

Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) illegally imported into Guangdong province contain coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-221 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR21). Although the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR1), some pangolin coronaviruses exhibit strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the RBD, including all six key RBD residues21 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR21) (Fig. 1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#Fig1)). This clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein optimized for binding to human-like ACE2 is the result of natural selection.

(Andersen, K.G., Rambaut, A., Lipkin, W.I. et al. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nat Med (2020).)



Are you interested in evolutionary biology? If so, you need to read the entire correspondence from researchers to NatureM.

It's an excellent early take.
Here is the link (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9).

This is interesting. Do you mean actual natural selection in real-time within a short timeframe? The proof of science concepts show that it was actually natural selection that ruled out the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a laboratory. That was of initial paramount importance. There is no natural selection taking place in the passage of this virus in humans. Many people think something like that is occurring -- it's not. But, it has almost certainly taken place in cell culture over time as the "mother virus" (SARS-CoV) has been in labs, and in the wild, for many years. It's that change and its Var 2 relationship to receptor ACE2 that is so interesting and confirmative of the the virus in a natural, selected, state.

Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) illegally imported into Guangdong province contain coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-221 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR21). Although the RaTG13 bat virus remains the closest to SARS-CoV-2 across the genome1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR1), some pangolin coronaviruses exhibit strong similarity to SARS-CoV-2 in the RBD, including all six key RBD residues21 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR21) (Fig. 1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#Fig1)). This clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein optimized for binding to human-like ACE2 is the result of natural selection.

(Andersen, K.G., Rambaut, A., Lipkin, W.I. et al. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nat Med (2020).)



Are you interested in evolutionary biology? If so, you need to read the entire correspondence from researchers to NatureM.

It's an excellent early take.
Here is the link (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9).

No. I'm quite sure you know what I mean in this context, but I appreciate your scholarship.

Great points above, and reasons for cautious optimism. It's clear this began spreading in Oklahoma in late February / First week of March. It seems we have probably cycled through most of those initial transmissions. Now we are dealing with the cave people still crowding stores shoulder to shoulder and having their underground gatherings.

Eventually, natural selection will become a real thing.

Because our media have been ravaged by layoffs, it's a shame we don't have more reporting. For example, I would love to understand how Greer County in SW Oklahoma, which has no air force base or large installation or even sizable community (Mangum?), has like 46 cases and four deaths. What happened there?

Now that testing is more widely available, we can feel somewhat greater confidence in the numbers we are seeing.

One wonders what will happen when we 'open everything up' in the coming days, weeks, months.

Well, nothing from the Oklahoman or the Tulsa World, but MSN reported on Greer County. A shame we cannot get any inquiry into this from Oklahoma journalists (what is left of them).

Here is the article from MSN.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-mangum-nursing-home-at-epicenter-of-greer-county-outbreak/ar-BB12lNJ2

No. I'm quite sure you know what I mean in this context, but I appreciate your scholarship.

Actually, I had no idea what context you meant it in. That’s why I asked. I guess I tipped off one of the things that give me purpose to get up each morning. It’s a topic that never comes up here, so I saw the one-off reference from you and ran with it.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/corona041220a.jpg

^^ the newest numbers and trend is encouraging. I think we have to start opening some things back up.

Well, nothing from the Oklahoman or the Tulsa World, but MSN reported on Greer County. A shame we cannot get any inquiry into this from Oklahoma journalists (what is left of them).

Here is the article from MSN.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-mangum-nursing-home-at-epicenter-of-greer-county-outbreak/ar-BB12lNJ2

FWIW...It was reported in the Lawton Constitution. Tulsa preacher was the first person in the state to die from Covid 19 and may have been the person to start the outbreak in Mangum.

https://www.swoknews.com/news/mangum-mayor-says-tulsa-evangelists-march-visit-before-his-death-probably-set-of-covid-19/article_d301c1d1-979c-5e37-b49c-d82d12b131d1.html

FWIW...It was reported in the Lawton Constitution. Tulsa preacher was the first person in the state to die from Covid 19 and may have been the person to start the outbreak in Mangum.

https://www.swoknews.com/news/mangum-mayor-says-tulsa-evangelists-march-visit-before-his-death-probably-set-of-covid-19/article_d301c1d1-979c-5e37-b49c-d82d12b131d1.html

Thank you! I miss the “like” feature here. Some posts seem caustic but may actually be genuine. It’s hard to read tone.

It's always good to see a regional newspaper doing their job.

Fauci says US could see a 'rolling' reopen starting next month but warns of a 'rebound' in outbreaks later this year

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that the country could begin reopening in some aspects as early as next month, but the response will be different across the country.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of the top experts on President Donald Trump's coronavirus task force, appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday after what many officials cast as the worst week yet in the US coronavirus outbreak, saying he had noticed reasons for "cautious optimism."

"[We knew] this was going to be a really bad week with regard to deaths," Fauci said, adding that despite record-high death counts in hard-hit places like New York City, there were indications that part of the outbreak had begun to "level off" from statistics like hospitalizations and intubations that are "starting to turn the corner."

There's "cautious optimism that we are seeing that decrease," Fauci said, pointing to other countries that "turned the corner then saw sharp decline" before considering reopening public places.

Any return to normal life in the US would occur in a "gradual" or "rolling" reentry, Fauci said.

"You want to make sure you don't do something prematurely and precipitously at the same time pay attention to need to try and get back to normal," Fauci said. "It's not going to be a light switch that we say, okay it is now June, July, or whatever and the light switch goes back on."

Though the response will not be "one size fits all"," Fauci said that officials were hopeful reopening measures could "probably start at least in some ways next month," depending on the status of the outbreak in different states and cities.

Still, Fauci said despite hopes for a reopen, "there is always the possibility, as we get into next fall and the beginning of early winter, that we could see a rebound."

The resurgence would hopefully be met with reliable testing, surveillance, and responses like effective drugs to make it "a totally different ball game" from the initial outbreak, Fauci said, but it's unclear if activities like voting will be affected by the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-country-rolling-reopen-beginning-next-month-2020-4?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sf-bi-main&fbclid=IwAR2MaW8gwVJy_WYSI8e5ASJ0ZOWo9s0St1mBAc890 MaX-9GL4HsM30g7U8A

With the symptoms mentioned I think I had it back late November early December.

With the symptoms mentioned I think I had it back late November early December.I had a couple of co-workers that had the minor described symptoms around the first of the year. One of them got tested for the flu and was negative. I’ve wondered ever since Feb when COVID became a thing.

With the symptoms mentioned I think I had it back late November early December.

Yep, a bunch of folks caught cases in November.
It was flying low-key under the radar.
We have more immunity to this V than we think.

With the symptoms mentioned I think I had it back late November early December.

With respect, unless you have the antibodies I am somewhat skeptical. Did you or anybody you associate with travel to Wuhan? Being negative for one strain of flu does not make the leap to covid 19.

About those antibody tests...

Fears of ‘Wild West’ as COVID-19 blood tests hit the market

WASHINGTON (AP) — Blood tests for the coronavirus could play a key role in deciding whether millions of Americans can safely return to work and school. But public health officials warn that the current “Wild West” of unregulated tests is creating confusion that could ultimately slow the path to recovery.

More than 70 companies have signed up to sell so-called antibody tests in recent weeks, according to U.S. regulators. Governments around the world hope that the rapid tests, which typically use a finger-prick of blood on a test strip, could soon ease public restrictions by identifying people who have previously had the virus and have developed some immunity to it.

But key questions remain: How accurate are the tests, how much protection is needed and how long will that protection last.

<snip>

With almost no FDA oversight of the tests, “Right now it’s a wild west show out there,” said Eric Blank of the Association for Public Health Laboratories. “It really has created a mess that’s going to take a while to clean up.”

“In the meantime, you’ve got a lot of companies marketing a lot of stuff and nobody has any idea of how good it is,” he said.

https://apnews.com/6f918ac77eefa34beaa381003a7663f9