I’m wondering why the rt.live website has Oklahoma hovering at an R-value of 1.01 (tied for 4th in the nation with New Jersey).

Seems like the number should be much higher given the amount of cases the State is catching.

Wasn't that tried in Texas, but a court overruled it?

I believe you are correct that it was overruled in Texas, but that is not going to stop Stitt from trying the exact same thing.

I’m wondering why the rt.live website has Oklahoma hovering at an R-value of 1.01 (tied for 4th in the nation with New Jersey).

Seems like the number should be much higher given the amount of cases the State is catching.Look at the formula rt uses. They link to it on the site.

Look at the formula rt uses. They link to it on the site.
I just love and they no longer link directly to the formula. But you can read the FAQs and see what data is graphed to see what they consider important.

Also the Illinois comparison is pretty strange. That is a true fact that they have more cases but they also have a major city, it is basically already winter there and many people use public transportation. Not really the same as Oklahoma in any real way.

Edit and saw on Twitter that Oklahoma has a higher seven day rolling average than Chicago. Nice.

Which is why Chicago had it worse earlier in the pandemic and not seeing "as much" pain now. I saw some estimates that Illinois would be at 70% total infected by mid December(Assuming the CDC's estimate of 10 people infected for every person tested positive). Covid is obviously not going to keep growing exponentially until it hits that number, at some point infection rates will plateau and decline.

Hawaii had there major surge back in August/September. Luckily for them, they are in a tropical climate and don't have to worry about winter so their curve will stay flat for here on out.

I was personally hoping there would be enough of a buffer where this expected winter surge would not be as bad. Unfortunately that turned out to not be the case, we have to re-find that suppression ceiling.

2,177 new cases
19 news deaths
1,248 hospitalizations as of last night

Highest 7 day average continues to go up.

2,177 (!) new cases today. 7-day rolling average is 2,080, an all-time high.

19 more deaths

1,248 hospitalizations (+146!), way above the previous all-time high.

340 ICU (+6); 9 off an all-time high.

Covid unit at Stillwater Regional Hospital full again this morning. Only 8 medical beds available.

It frustrates me that we lack any kind of uniformity in our precautions. We get sold this idea that every locality is different and should set their own standards as they see fit. But when some smaller cities don't have mask mandates and then their ICU's fill up, those patients then get transferred to other cities and sometimes other states. We don't live in complete isolation from each other.

Also, it is true that masks are not 100% foolproof. But they do help and the data is very clear to support that is very clear. It's just insane to me that we would just do virtually nothing because we're so afraid of telling people what to do. Traffic laws aren't foolproof either, but they are mostly effective in reducing accidents, as opposed to just recommending that people use their own judgement as to how fast they should go or when they should be stopping.

"Statewide hospitalizations reach a record high of 1,246 in North Carolina. By @joshshaffer08.

Oklahoma’s statewide #COVID19 hospitalizations were 1,248 last night.

NC population is 10.5 million. OK population is 4 million."

https://twitter.com/pmonies/status/1326639194702278656?s=20

It frustrates me that we lack any kind of uniformity in our precautions. We get sold this idea that every locality is different and should set their own standards as they see fit. But when some smaller cities don't have mask mandates and then their ICU's fill up, those patients then get transferred to other cities and sometimes other states. We don't live in complete isolation from each other.

Also, it is true that masks are not 100% foolproof. But they do help and the data is very clear to support that is very clear. It's just insane to me that we would just do virtually nothing because we're so afraid of telling people what to do. Traffic laws aren't foolproof either, but they are mostly effective in reducing accidents, as opposed to just recommending that people use their own judgement as to how fast they should go or when they should be stopping.

Strongly agree. A virus is still a virus. Heart attacks aren't treated differently in different localities (or at least they shouldn't be).

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/study-pinpoints-gyms-restaurants-people-high-risk-contracting-covid-19-173213085.html

Interesting comments in here:

80% of cases come from restaurants, gyms, hotels, cafes, and religious organizations.

This problem would be so easy to suppress if our leadership had some...well, you know...

145,000 positive cases in the U.S. yesterday and nearly 1,500 deaths.

And almost nothing is being done about it.

All you need to know about lack of intelligence and backbone in Oklahoma is displayed in this morning’s Oklahoman. A picture of the OK legislators being sworn in shows overwhelming lack of wearing masks in an indoor group environment. The political dogma trumps medical sensibilities in our milk toast legislature and executive branch. We are the reddest, least healthy, and apparently least caring state in the nation.

Oklahoma Standard

145,000 positive cases in the U.S. yesterday and nearly 1,500 deaths.

And almost nothing is being done about it.

Obviously there are other priorities concerning the head of the federal government.

So many states are having their most rapid spread right now. Yet the panic is nothing like we saw back in March. Wonder what it will take? Lockdowns seem imminent (Except Oklahoma, because freedom).

Now I see the open meeting exemption granted by the state is expiring so city council meetings and such will have to go back to in person. This exemption needs to be extended.

And oh yeah, there will be a pool and spa show this weekend. Cannot live without those!!

locking down again should be a non starter ..

So many states are having their most rapid spread right now. Yet the panic is nothing like we saw back in March. Wonder what it will take? Lockdowns seem imminent (Except Oklahoma, because freedom).

Contact tracing, mask mandates without exceptions, limiting hours of bars and restaurants should be done prior to this draconian step.

My mother is a teacher in OKCPS. They had a long all-hands meeting last night. They are apparently going back to all virtual probably starting next week and staying virtual for the foreseeable future.

They are also fully expecting the Department of education map on friday to be in the red zone for at least Oklahoma county.

My mother is a teacher in OKCPS. They had a long all-hands meeting last night. They are apparently going back to all virtual probably starting next week and staying virtual for the foreseeable future.

They are also fully expecting the Department of education map on friday to be in the red zone for at least Oklahoma county.

I hadn't heard anything about OKCPS going back to virtual or a meeting last night. Do you know where I can find out more?

Non hepa filters rated MERV-13 can catch most viruses, but are more expensive.


Obviously there are other priorities concerning the head of the federal government.

Golf?

I hadn't heard anything about OKCPS going back to virtual or a meeting last night. Do you know where I can find out more?


Unknown, All the info I got was that she was in an employee meeting with the superintendent last night, and that was the general direction that he said they were headed.

Now of course, she could be forming her own conclusions, and it might not happen, but I am just passing it along.

There are White House Task Force guidelines issued for Oklahoma which are pretty much being ignored.

They include:

- Statewide mask mandate for ANY gatherings (no exceptions for churches or schools)
- Limiting restaurants to 50% capacity and curtailing hours
- Closing all bars

2,357 new cases today. 7-day rolling average now an astounding 2,117, which is yet another record-breaker.

11 more reported deaths.


They did not update the hospitalization and ICU numbers last night for some reason.

Non hepa filters rated MERV-13 can catch most viruses, but are more expensive.


There are White House Task Force guidelines issued for Oklahoma which are pretty much being ignored.

They include:

- Statewide mask mandate for ANY gatherings (no exceptions for churches or schools)
- Limiting restaurants to 50% capacity and curtailing hours
- Closing all bars

Does it say anything about legislative gatherings? LOL.

2,357 new cases today. 7-day rolling average now an astounding 2,117, which is yet another record-breaker.

11 more reported deaths.


They did not update the hospitalization and ICU numbers last night for some reason.

They said no update on Veterans Day.

Unknown, All the info I got was that she was in an employee meeting with the superintendent last night, and that was the general direction that he said they were headed.

Now of course, she could be forming her own conclusions, and it might not happen, but I am just passing it along.

Thanks!

locking down again should be a non starter ..

Older people in less than good health should be locking themselves down or at least being more careful around people. I think a lot of them are, but evidently not enough of them are doing that. When I drive by a restaurant where the parking lot looks full, I'm sure glad I'm not in there.

I still think Oklahoma and national media need to do better showing the adverse impact having covid has on one's life in case it would encourage people to take precautions. Just covering the record breaking totals every day doesn't seem to work much. But maybe most people want to keep their illnesses private.

locking down again should be a non starter ..

Accepting the deaths of a quarter million Americans (and counting) for political reasons should be a non starter, also.

Older people in less than good health should be locking themselves down or at least being more careful around people. I think a lot of them are, but evidently not enough of them are doing that. When I drive by a restaurant where the parking lot looks full, I'm sure glad I'm not in there.

I still think Oklahoma and national media need to do better showing the adverse impact having covid has on one's life in case it would encourage people to take precautions. Just covering the record breaking totals every day doesn't seem to work much. But maybe most people want to keep their illnesses private.

I think this is very true. When the country witnessed two planes taking down two skyscrapers and people jumping out of a burning building on TV, it horrified everyone (and rightly so). And that was for around 3K people. We are well over 200K now but when people see that daily headline of the number of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations, they just seem like statistics. And you do hear stories from doctors and nurses about how bad things are getting, but without that visual, it just doesn't quite hit home for a lot of people. Unfortunately, you also hear stories of people who did end up in the hospital who say that they wish they took it more seriously. I'm sure they have to be careful with what they can show because of HIPAA though.

I also think it's important to point out why it's misleading to focus on the lowering death rate. Of course it's a very good thing that it's going down because we've learned more about the virus and ways to treat it and the average age of a COVID patient has trended towards younger people now who are more likely to survive. But with an increasingly high volume of people getting infected, there are going to be a high number of deaths anyway.

Chicago issues stay at home order

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/12/chicago-issues-stay-at-home-order-as-covid-cases-continue-to-rise.html?__twitter_impression=true

from OKC


City of Oklahoma City public meetings subject to the Open Meeting Act will be held in-person beginning Nov. 16 after the expiration of a state law allowing governments to conduct them remotely.



During the coronavirus pandemic, most City Council meetings and the City’s other public meetings have been held by teleconference or videoconference. The Oklahoma State Legislature’s Senate Bill 661 temporarily amended the Open Meeting Act to allow the remotely conducted meetings, but it expires Nov. 15.



Meetings of the City Council and many other boards, trusts and commissions are in the newly renovated Council Chamber on the third floor of City Hall, 200 N Walker Ave.



City Hall and other City buildings will remain closed to the public except during scheduled public meetings.



Visit okc.gov/agenda to find meeting agendas, locations and other details.



Safety guidelines



The following safety guidelines are in place during the COVID-19 pandemic for meetings in the Council Chamber at City Hall:



Face coverings are required throughout the building. Disposable face masks are available upon entry.


Only the south entrance to the building is open. A Police Department cadet conducts temperature checks and provides a color-coded wrist band. All other doors are locked, but can be used as an exit by pressing green “exit” buttons on the interior wall.


Meeting attendees are required to sign a log for contact tracing purposes.


ADA access doors to the Chamber will remain unlocked. Other Chamber doors are marked “entrance” and “exit.” The doors will remain open as much as possible.


Air purifying machines are in the Chamber. Hand sanitizer and sanitizing wipes are available.


Plexiglass barriers are in place around the horseshoe seating for the Council members, other officers and staff.


Seating for up to 33 people is available in the gallery. Up to 3 people can sit in an open pew. Every other pew is taped off. Family groups may sit together and exceed the limit of 3 people per pew.


If needed, overflow seating will be available in the lobbies on the third and second floors.


The Chamber will be cleaned and sanitized daily.


The press box is limited to 7 media members.


The Risk Management Office will assess other meeting sites as needed to determine relevant safety protocols.



Visit covid19.okc.gov for the latest local information on the coronavirus pandemic.

CDC Says Face Masks Protect You From COVID-19, Not Just Others (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cdc-face-masks-protect-you-covid-19_l_5fac0ee9c5b6cae94041db88)

CDC Says Face Masks Protect You From COVID-19, Not Just Others (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cdc-face-masks-protect-you-covid-19_l_5fac0ee9c5b6cae94041db88)
Yay! Finally a recognized organization that agrees with me.

161,000 cases in the U.S. yesterday.

This thing is now raging out of control.

Tested positive. I got it from someone I was helping out during the ice storm. I'm sure cases will go up because of that.

2,667 new cases today. 7-day rolling average now a mind-boggling 2,230.

12 additional deaths.

Hospitalizations 1,279 (+31) as we continue to set records every passing day.

ICU 350 (+10), another all-time high.

But hey, the school board voted against a mask mandate once again.

But hey, the school board voted against a mask mandate once again.

So how far will "strongly encouraging personal responsibility" go towards protecting people? (Hand up) Oooh, me, me, pick me for the answer!!! No-f-ing-where and thousands more dead and injured, that's how far...

OKCPS moving to virtual learning until December 18th, the end of the semester.

Is Oklahoma county red?

Not by department of health standards, but way red by school board standards.

School board considers it red if 50+ Case rate, and were at 70 something.

Thanks

School map:

16571

So many states are having their most rapid spread right now. Yet the panic is nothing like we saw back in March. Wonder what it will take? Lockdowns seem imminent (Except Oklahoma, because freedom).

We actually have a better idea of cases vs fatalities this time around. Yay testing!
Fear of dying is a big motivator and at least half the population thought catching covid was a death sentence. When people saw a fat old president catch covid and not die they re evaluated their odds.

The irony is NOW is the time to be aggressive in flattening the curve before the peak. Not back in the summer when we had excess hospital capacity. Its not one curve we're dealing with, its a series of waves, we want tighter restrictions immediately preceding the crests and less in the valley's. Not the other way around. I fear all we accomplished was making a bigger spike.

In Europe, many countries are following the same pattern they did the first time around. They locked down after they peaked out. Once again they shut the barn door after the horses already got out.

After okc public school announcement, Yukon, Ada, Stillwater and Putnam City announced going back to virtual. My co-worker got an e-mail from putnam city schools saying it will be virtual for next week but i bet the extend it to end of semester

2,847 new cases today; 7-day moving average is skewed because there was no report last Sunday: 1,992.

23 additional deaths, a single-day record.

Hospitalizations 1,247 (-32) off of yesterday's all-time high.

ICU 362 (+12) for a new all-time high.


There should be a lot of concern about hospitals getting overwhelmed. Hospitalizations, ICU and deaths are all highly correlated to positive case numbers and of course those have been recently off the charts with all the care metrics already at record highs.

Would be a very bad time to get sick. Please be careful out there.

I’ve seen reports of hospitals in Kansas getting calls from hospitals in Texas looking for beds. Nothing official of course, but also not unbelievable.

Good read on where we are and what's coming by Zeynep Tufekci: It’s Time to Hunker Down (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/lock-yourself-down-now/617106/)

Per the discussion on Thanksgiving:


Plus, the holidays are upon us, which means a spike in gatherings of people who do not otherwise see one another. Such get-togethers, especially if they are multigenerational, can spark more outbreaks. I take no joy in saying this, but all of this means that any gathering outside one’s existing quarantine pod should be avoided for now—especially if it is indoors. Think of it as a postponement and plan to hold it later. Better a late Christmas than an early medical catastrophe. Pods should not expand unless absolutely necessary. Order takeout instead of dining indoors. Make game night virtual. Shop in bulk, so you can do fewer trips to the store. It’s not the right time for wedding receptions or birthday parties.

An important point about colleges:


Young people present one of the biggest challenges. Many colleges are ending school and sending students home, for what could be a country-wide super-spreader event. That age group—young adults—is especially dangerous; although they can get infected, they are less likely to get very sick, so they don’t stay put the way sick people would. That means they pose a great risk to their more vulnerable parents and other older relatives as they go about their lives. Ideally, colleges should offer the students already on campus the option to stay in the dorms over winter break, and those who live in off-campus housing should consider staying put. If they do go home, the students should quarantine for the recommended two weeks to the greatest degree possible.

Be nice to have Oklahoma do this:
Sending saliva tests out at no expense

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/at-home-saliva-tests-available-all-minnesotans-mdh-urges-18-to-35-year-olds-to-get-tested/5922644/

Tested positive. I got it from someone I was helping out during the ice storm. I'm sure cases will go up because of that.

Sorry to learn of that. How are you doing?

Be nice to have Oklahoma do this:
Sending saliva tests out at no expense

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/at-home-saliva-tests-available-all-minnesotans-mdh-urges-18-to-35-year-olds-to-get-tested/5922644/

It would be cheaper and show leadership if Oklahoma had the same covid restrictions as Minnesota first.
Let's start with mask mandates that are enforced. Similar restrictions on bars and contact tracing that is aggressive.

After almost two weeks of no electricity, I finally got most of my data caught up (Ughh.. still need to download PDF's and update the hospital #'s.)

While sitting here making these, really hit home how bad the situation is right now. Cases have gone parabolic. The last time I compiled & posted all the data was on October 18th. (https://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=45625&page=310&p=1142855#post1142855)

Summary
Housekeeping since my last update: October set the record for most deaths so far with 306 Oklahomans dead - beating August's record of 259 dead, an increase of 18%. October also set the record for most cases at 35,563, an increase of 25% over the previous record set in September.

Looking ahead to November, its hard to see how November won't shatter all previous records. Assuming average cases and deaths per day stay constant until end of month, November will end with ~59,000 cases and 384 dead. At this rate, November's month to date cases will surpass the total for October around November 18th. November deaths per day are up 30% over October. November cases per day are up 71% over October.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on the average deaths/day accelerating in the second half of November. Significantly.

https://i.imgur.com/5ytBGRP.png

Trend

The sheer magnitude of the recent case spike really distorts the trend line - compressing the historical 7 day case average trend to the point where all previous spikes seem tame. When Sunday's numbers are added, we should see the trend line decrease, as the large case count reported last Sunday of 4,507 will roll out of the calculation. (Note, I am using 4,507 cases for 11-8, and 0 cases for 11-7 in the 14-day case average here, resulting in 14-day avg. case count of 1,960.)

https://i.imgur.com/OD3wOEg.png

It would be cheaper and show leadership if Oklahoma had the same covid restrictions as Minnesota first.
Let's start with mask mandates that are enforced. Similar restrictions on bars and contact tracing that is aggressive.How many contact tracers does Oklahoma have? Is it even really possible with so many daily new cases. Especially if many are getting the virus because they are going to places where larger groups are gathering using pretty much no precautions.

How many contact tracers does Oklahoma have? Is it even really possible with so many daily new cases. Especially if many are getting the virus because they are going to places where larger groups are gathering using pretty much no precautions.
That ship sailed.

3,923 cases today. And I don’t think we have a system change or anything like that to blame this time around...

We're basically back at the point from April when the discussion was about not overwhelming hospitals. At this point it's clear: It's time for a shut down. If there's not a shut down soon the hospitals and health care workers will be overrun and people with COVID and with other maladies will start to suffer and die needlessly in the next month. And, I strongly suspect, Stitt at least, will choose to let people die.

We're basically back at the point from April when the discussion was about not overwhelming hospitals. At this point it's clear: It's time for a shut down. If there's not a shut down soon the hospitals and health care workers will be overrun and people with COVID and with other maladies will start to suffer and die needlessly in the next month. And, I strongly suspect, Stitt at least, will choose to let people die.

It would be laughable to watch anyone try to enforce another lockdown at this point. After everything that business owners went through back in the spring, there is no way that all of them would comply...especially in the absence of any type of financial program to reimburse them for the massive losses they would incur by being closed through the holidays. This whole situations sucks but another lockdown is not the answer.