There were noticeable case increases that were traced back to gatherings around Memorial Day and 4th of July, and those are traditionally outdoor holidays. I'm very worried about what is likely to result from Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Eve gatherings, given that those are traditionally indoor holidays.

Apologies for the lack of updates. Been a pretty brutal ~6 weeks at work: Multiple converging deadlines, projects, disasters, and 11 hour days, etc. etc.

I haven't really been keeping up with the discussion in this thread much, but I continue to track the data coming out. In what should be a surprise to nobody, OK's Covid situation is a complete disaster.

Month Summary
Since my last update, September went on to set a record for highest cases/day and highest total case, second highest deaths/day and total deaths. October's cases are on track to blow the previous highest monthly case record completely out of the water. At our current rate, October will end with ~34,500 cases and ~240 deaths.
https://i.imgur.com/UA4eW9L.png

Trends

Looking at 7/14 day avg. cases vs. 7 day avg. deaths, we can see that the recent range-bound average deaths broke out of the range and is back near all time highs. The 7-day case avg. continues to break records: October 11th, October 12th, October 14th and October 15th were new all-time highs.

https://i.imgur.com/OxwdWD5.png

The 7/14/21 day case average trend shows some strange convergence where all 3 averages seem to be increasing at very similar rates.
https://i.imgur.com/H8AFuJy.png

NEW GRAPH! I

In an effort to understand if there is a relationship between deaths & hospital visits, I created this trend.

The "R7 Avg. DoD Hospital Visits" is calculated by looking at the daily "Hospitalized Ever" figure reported by the state. This is a rolling tally of all patients seen in the hospital over the prior 24 hours. This is not the total patients IN the hospital. I subtract the current day figure from the prior day. Then, I add 7 of these values and divide by 7. The idea being that patients with Covid who visit the hospital are likely the higher risk patients with symptoms severe enough to get checked out. Most are discharged, some will stay. This gives us a better idea of the type of patient getting a positive diagnosis. For example, the ~20 somethings going to house parties aren't likely to visit the hospital based merely on a positive test. However, the 65+ patients with pre-existing conditions will likely visit the hospital upon getting a positive diagnosis.

My prediction was that a large increase in patients seen in the hospital average may be a leading indicator for upcoming deaths.

The trend is quite clear on the recent spike where Avg. 7 day hospital visits increased by about 58%: (From 55 to 87 during the first 10 days of October.) About a week later, we see 7-day average deaths increase by 66% (From ~6 to ~10).

https://i.imgur.com/8GtW3Y9.png

(Open images in new browser tab to view full-resolution. On mobile, you're probably better to open in new tab and download to device so you can zoom easily).

Reminder: Mask goes over mouth & nose. Wear it. Hands need to be washed more. Stay away from each other.

There were noticeable case increases that were traced back to gatherings around Memorial Day and 4th of July, and those are traditionally outdoor holidays. I'm very worried about what is likely to result from Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Eve gatherings, given that those are traditionally indoor holidays.

This is a good point. I've already started psychological warfare on my family to make them understand: We will not celebrate Thanksgiving in the traditional manner, if at all. We will not celebrate Christmas in the traditional manner, if at all.

This is a good point. I've already started psychological warfare on my family to make them understand: We will not celebrate Thanksgiving in the traditional manner, if at all. We will not celebrate Christmas in the traditional manner, if at all.

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.
When rote actions are more important than your family’s health and well being, you have to question what’s really important to you....going through the motions of something or truly loving and caring for your loved ones. The real tradition worth saving is love of family and worship of our God.

And everyone probably knows how important traditions are to them without people telling them they don’t even know for themselves.

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

Traditions are important, but so is individual and communal health. We are canceling our family Thanksgiving tradition because it would be difficult to hold safety. There’s just too many families. If your family can’t hold your events outdoors and socially distanced then you *should* consider cancelling. But if you can adapt it to be outdoors and socially distanced then enjoy it. We’re going to adapt it and meet with small groups in safer set ups.

My family and I will continue to celebrate our traditions and I’ll report back after New Years when nothing happened and we still enjoyed each other and had a great time being together. To those who don’t I hope you enjoy living under a rock for no reason but fear.

We will have a vaccine and much better treatment by Christmas. Patience people patience. We are getting closer every day

I urge you not to abandoned your traditions. They are more important than you realize.

We'll catch 'em next year.

My family and I will continue to celebrate our traditions and I’ll report back after New Years when nothing happened and we still enjoyed each other and had a great time being together. To those who don’t I hope you enjoy living under a rock for no reason but fear.

No reason but fear? I have no words.

Traditions are important, but so is individual and communal health. We are canceling our family Thanksgiving tradition because it would be difficult to hold safety. There’s just too many families. If your family can’t hold your events outdoors and socially distanced then you *should* consider cancelling. But if you can adapt it to be outdoors and socially distanced then enjoy it. We’re going to adapt it and meet with small groups in safer set ups.

Unfortunately many people will be spreading it around during the upcoming holidays. I know my family still plans to get together just like we would any other year.

We will have a vaccine and much better treatment by Christmas. Patience people patience. We are getting closer every day

Not this year we won't. At least not a vaccine that has been approved with sufficient clinical trials.

A vaccine that gets approved this year will not be available to everyone until at least mid year 2021. High risk populations might get it first but I wouldn't expect much until Spring.

The way this is going, I'm not planning on attending Thanksgiving this year. I'm not even sure if my family will be having one. Way too many people outside of my bubble to worry about and too many older family members that are high risk.

Just passed a miestone for me as I am having to move a client's court date because she came down with COVID. This isn't a hoax folks.

I usually have about 20 of my family over for both Thanksgiving and Christmas, including a bunch of kids.

I'm trying to rethink this but not sure how to do it safely.

We might just get together for Christmas and let everyone do their own thing on Thanksgiving.

It makes no damn sense to have standard holiday gatherings right now. Doing so is going to get people killed.

14 Dallas family members get COVID-19 after virus denier’s party, 1 dead and another on life support
(https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/14-dallas-family-members-get-covid-19-after-virus-deniers-party-1-dead-and-another-on-life-support/)Man Who Called COVID a ‘Hoax’ Feels Guilty After He and 13 Family Members Test Positive — and 2 Die (https://people.com/health/man-called-covid-hoax-feels-guilty-14-family-members-test-positive-2-die/)

This could be any of us.

I also have a few family members well into their 60's...

I'm not sure what I'm going to do but it doesn't seem responsible just to go ahead as normal and just hope.

774 new cases today; 7-day rolling average is 1,127 down slightly from all-time highs.

792 hospitalizations, down 1 from all-time high.

ICU is 301 (+8), an all-time high.

154 new cases in OK County.

2 additional deaths.

I usually have about 20 of my family over for both Thanksgiving and Christmas, including a bunch of kids.

I'm trying to rethink this but not sure how to do it safely.

We might just get together for Christmas and let everyone do their own thing on Thanksgiving.

I have a pretty large family and we normally gather up on my mother's side on Christmas Eve and father's on Christmas day. Both gatherings tend to have 20-40 people. Thanksgiving is just one gathering but it's normally a good 20 folks.

Our plan is to keep Thanksgiving small this year (less than 10 folks). For Christmas, we're planning on doing a bunch of caroling. We figure if we spread out going and visiting relatives over the course of a few days, we can still see everyone, without spreading around germs. Go by, drop gifts off on their porch, and sing songs and wish them happy holidays from a safe social distance.

I also have a few family members well into their 60's...

I'm not sure what I'm going to do but it doesn't seem responsible just to go ahead as normal and just hope.

We will be having a nuclear-only gathering of the three of us in our household. We will schlep leftovers to the in-laws and do some Facetime.

We usually gather with about 40 people for Thanksgiving but not this year. We're doing just immediate family.

We usually gather with about 40 people for Thanksgiving but not this year. We're doing just immediate family.

Ours is generally 40-50, and we're sticking to our immediate family. While we would love to keep with tradition, we have a wide range of family members from newborns to late 60's and we don't feel comfortable having that large of a group in one house.

Ours is generally 40-50, and we're sticking to our immediate family. While we would love to keep with tradition, we have a wide range of family members from newborns to late 60's and we don't feel comfortable having that large of a group in one house.

Yes and we also have all come home from Thanksgiving before and several of us had colds the following week. Lots of kids at this gathering (aka germ factories). Not a great precedent for something like this. I will miss seeing everyone, but it's just not worth the risk.

Yes and we also have all come home from Thanksgiving before and several of us had colds the following week. Lots of kids at this gathering (aka germ factories). Not a great precedent for something like this. I will miss seeing everyone, but it's just not worth the risk.

Germ factories? What a funny thought.

Today's state hospital #'s are out: 821 in the hospital. 319 Patients in the ICU. (95% of hospitals reporting). Both are new all-time highs.

Yep....

3:30pm today Stitt and Fry giving an update on hospital capacity and surge plan.

Today's state hospital #'s are out: 821 in the hospital. 319 Patients in the ICU. (95% of hospitals reporting). Both are new all-time highs.

I want to know where all of the minimizing Covid deniers on this forum disappeared to.

All we heard was how spiking new cases were irrelevant and only hospitalizations matter.

Yep....

3:30pm today Stitt and Fry giving an update on hospital capacity and surge plan.

Why would anyone waste their time listening to this? “Oklahoma’s doing great! Wear a mask if you choose to, or not. Our surge plan is in effect and we have this under control.”

Why would anyone waste their time listening to this? “Oklahoma’s doing great! Wear a mask if you choose to, or not. Our surge plan is in effect and we have this under control.”Exactly what he'll say. He could almost record one and play it every week.

I want to know where all of the minimizing Covid deniers on this forum disappeared to.

All we heard was how spiking new cases were irrelevant and only hospitalizations matter.

They are in Sweden getting some of that herd immunity.

We were discussing plans for the holidays...

As things continue to ramp up and hospital and ICU space becomes limited, it would really, really suck for you or someone in your family to get very sick around the holidays.

Not only are beds becoming scarce, but you can also absolutely predict a surge due to students returning from campus and tons of gatherings.


As they say, everything is fine until it isn't. And I'd be very worried about getting seriously ill in the next few months.

And BTW, think of the enormous cost of all this...

Fully 14% of Oklahomans do not have any sort of health insurance (near the bottom of the U.S., of course) and another 35% has public health insurance.

The incredible cost will be shared by all of us, including the "it won't happen to me" crowd.

1,475 new case today, a record for a Tuesday.

7-day rolling average now 1,151, just off record highs.

18 additional reported deaths, an all-time high.

Hospitalizations 821 (+29), well above the previous all-time high.

Same for ICU at 319 (+18).


Something needs to be done. We still aren't to the holidays or cold/flu season.

The worst part being these hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators. Our high numbers now will hurt us in a month only compounding the problem.

I'm sure Stitt will once again find a decent number from John Hopkins or some other source to ignore the WH report or any other thing that might make it look dire.

And BTW, think of the enormous cost of all this...

Fully 14% of Oklahomans do not have any sort of health insurance (near the bottom of the U.S., of course) and another 35% has public health insurance.

The incredible cost will be shared by all of us, including the "it won't happen to me" crowd.

For our country's sake, we need to hope that the many, many thousands of COVID long-haulers are eventually able to recover. If it turns out that chronic illness is a fairly common aftereffect of COVID, the resulting health care costs could be nearly unfathomable, not to mention the effects on productivity and mental health. Just another reason why letting COVID run uncontrolled for the next 6-12 months until we have a widely distributed vaccine is a shortsighted, unwise decision.

Earlier this year I was in the hospital for 3 days for what turned out to be a minor health scare.

My total bill -- without being in the ICU or surgery or anything beyond routine tests -- was $35,000. Even with excellent insurance, I had to write a check for over $7K.


The cost of all of this is something not really discussed but is going to end up being an economic disaster in itself.

I know this is verging on the political, but these are two main issues the US faces that make is quite unique:

1) the lack of universal paid time off and employee protections make it harder for people to stay home if they are sick. How many cases can be traced back to a positive employee showing up for work after being told that they can either show up or look for another job? Or to people who cannot afford to stay home for an unpaid sick day?

2) the fact that heath insurance is tied to employment for most of us. The economy hits the tank because of a pandemic, people are without work because of a pandemic, and now they don’t have health insurance in the middle of a pandemic.

I’m not posting this to start a political discussion, but just to acknowledge that these two factors are pretty significant.

By far and away the most significant and unique factor in the U.S. is that our president and many state governors who were pressured by our president completely refuted the advice of experts, if not by out-right statements, by their actions and non-action.

It's still going on every single day and the reason the states aligned with the current administration are the ones in by far the worse shape, with almost all trending in very bad directions, even though most of them had big head-starts by not being initially hit in an extreme way.

Every other factor is very, very minor (and/or directly related) in the face of the disinformation and leadership vacuum.


I say all this as a registered Republican of 42 years.

Our governor is suppose to talk at 3:30 about the covid Pandemic and a revised Surge plan. So do you think there is any chance he will issue some orders like closing bars or anything like that? My opinion and just an opinion I have said it on here a few times that schools need to go back to being online only, there is so many kids being sent home to quarantine as it is right now from schools that the inside physical school learning is pointless with the back and forth mass quarantine going on right now

Stitt has said many times he will not issue any state-wide orders.

Be very surprised if he changes that today.

Our governor is suppose to talk at 3:30 about the covid Pandemic and a revised Surge plan. So do you think there is any chance he will issue some orders like closing bars or anything like that? My opinion and just an opinion I have said it on here a few times that schools need to go back to being online only, there is so many kids being sent home to quarantine as it is right now from schools that the inside physical school learning is pointless with the back and forth mass quarantine going on right now
I predict he won't say anything negative. He said early on that hospitalizations were the biggest concern for him. Open ICU beds have gone up from 11% to 13% somehow. Even with the occupied numbers getting way higher. I bet he focuses on that percentage and how we have the "ability" to further increase capacity. I think he's imagining things but that's where we are I think.

Our governor is suppose to talk at 3:30 about the covid Pandemic and a revised Surge plan. So do you think there is any chance he will issue some orders like closing bars or anything like that? My opinion and just an opinion I have said it on here a few times that schools need to go back to being online only, there is so many kids being sent home to quarantine as it is right now from schools that the inside physical school learning is pointless with the back and forth mass quarantine going on right now

schools need to go to 5 days a week

schools need to go to 5 days a week

Some schools already do it, such as Enid.

schools need to go to 5 days a week

Why?

As I recall due to lack of funding in the recent past the legislature forced many schools to go to a 4 day school week.

Oklahoma has now passed New York and Illinois in cases per capita.

Some schools already do it, such as Enid.

and oakdale near the metro

Why?

As I recall due to lack of funding in the recent past the legislature forced many schools to go to a 4 day school week.

the massive undo hard ship on low income family's for 1

For our country's sake, we need to hope that the many, many thousands of COVID long-haulers are eventually able to recover. If it turns out that chronic illness is a fairly common aftereffect of COVID, the resulting health care costs could be nearly unfathomable, not to mention the effects on productivity and mental health. Just another reason why letting COVID run uncontrolled for the next 6-12 months until we have a widely distributed vaccine is a shortsighted, unwise decision.

Maybe that's why individuals of a certain political persuasion are desperately trying to get the Supremes to dump ACA, and get rid of any requirements that insurance companies cover people with preexisting conditions. Insurers will be lining up for a bailout in the next few months.

I predict he won't say anything negative. He said early on that hospitalizations were the biggest concern for him. Open ICU beds have gone up from 11% to 13% somehow. Even with the occupied numbers getting way higher. I bet he focuses on that percentage and how we have the "ability" to further increase capacity. I think he's imagining things but that's where we are I think.

Cots in tents? This is a shiny object. Beds are beds. ICU patients require care. Listen to the hospitals that provide the care not this craven liar or delusional optimist governor of ours.

the massive undo hard ship on low income family's for 1

Didn't seem to be a concern when the legislature refused to adequately fund the schools or pay staff.

the massive undo hard ship on low income family's for 1

Avoiding a virus that has killed 220,000+ Americans hardly qualifies as undue.

Cots in tents? This is a shiny object. Beds are beds. ICU patients require care. Listen to the hospitals that provide the care not this craven liar or delusional optimist governor of ours.
I did say he's imagining things.

Maybe that's why individuals of a certain political persuasion are desperately trying to get the Supremes to dump ACA, and get rid of any requirements that insurance companies cover people with preexisting conditions. Insurers will be lining up for a bailout in the next few months.

**** 20-60% of the population that will have a history of COVID I guess...

As expected the news conference offered no new information. Fry said it was concerning but they have capacity. Went into staffing issues and will work with legislature on that (the Oklahoma legislature doesn't reconvene until February).

My friend(40 years old) got the Covid virus a couple of months ago and for whatever reason had a bad case. Missed 5 weeks of work. He has been back at work for a few weeks and is experiencing severe brain fog. I saw him yesterday and he told me his aunt(50 years old) had passed away Sunday night after a 2 week battle with Covid. I've lived in Oklahoma for 40 years and even though I have not always agreed with the politics of this state...I felt like by and large Okies were "good" people. The lack of concern for their fellow humans by a significant number of people in this state is staggering. I have a position where I have to enforce mask wearing by our customers...it is exhausting

As expected the news conference offered no new information. Fry said it was concerning but they have capacity. Went into staffing issues and will work with legislature on that (the Oklahoma legislature doesn't reconvene until February).
And where will they find staff. Lots states are having spikes in hospitalizations also. Probably not bringing staff in from anywhere else.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/200.gif

https://chatterboxsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/this-is-fine.0.jpg

As expected the news conference offered no new information. Fry said it was concerning but they have capacity. Went into staffing issues and will work with legislature on that (the Oklahoma legislature doesn't reconvene until February).

This is only anecdotal evidence but I've seen people that I know who are nurses in OKC posting things about how they are at capacity already and things are not looking great. It's one thing for officials to try and reassure people but it just feels more and more like we're being misled, which isn't right.