DFW, PDX, and MSP were airports I flew through in the past 1.5 weeks on vacation. I had never seen them so empty. Like, ever.

What do you mean by banks?

It’s summer. Still lots of tourists traffic. My 6-7am flights for work are empty for business travel.

What do you mean by banks?

A bank is a coordinated arrival and departure timing of flights into and out of a hub. This is meant to minimize connection time and provide a large number of connection options. For example a typical pre-covid bank in denver for united may have 65 arrivals between 830am and 915. And then 65 departure between 945 and 1030 with a total passenger throughput of 12,000. (6,000 actual customers as an arrival and departure passenger may be the same customer for connecting iteneraries. The next bank may not be for another hour resulting in a relatively dead airport between banks.

Trying this one again:

Did a check of Allegiant's website for departures out of OKC and the only destinations available to book were Destin and Las Vegas. Switched the departure city to TUL and they have SFB, LAX, PIE, and LAS! Anyone get any news about Allegiant dropping SFB and LAX from OKC?

Clearly it's dropped...

Schedules are erratic right now. I would expect some of these to return when things begin to return to normal.

Clearly it's dropped...

Schedules are erratic right now. I would expect some of these to return when things begin to return to normal.
Catch, sorry if you have answered this before, but do you have any idea on when things will even start returning to normal?

If I knew the answer to that I wouldn't be a baggage handler. My best guess, things will remain as-is for the next 6-9 months. If a vaccine is approved businesses may begin traveling again. Business traffic pays the bills, so until then the airlines will be inconsistent in scheduling as they all chase a very small percentage of low-yield leisure traffic. No one will be making money, they are all racing around trying to lose the least amount of money. 2022 I would imagine things beginning to look "stable". 2025 to return to 2019 levels. just guesses.

If I knew the answer to that I wouldn't be a baggage handler. My best guess, things will remain as-is for the next 6-9 months. If a vaccine is approved businesses may begin traveling again. Business traffic pays the bills, so until then the airlines will be inconsistent in scheduling as they all chase a very small percentage of low-yield leisure traffic. No one will be making money, they are all racing around trying to lose the least amount of money. 2022 I would imagine things beginning to look "stable". 2025 to return to 2019 levels. just guesses.

I’d bet it’s a like quicker than that but still not till 2023.

Growth is returning, but at a snails pace. Vaccine gets us to 70-80%. The last 80-100% will take a couple years.

WN suspended BWI too, now. So there are no nonstop options east of CLT for the time being. Weird times.

Most of my flying is international. While a small portion of overall flying is international, we are literally blocked from going to very many places. Once governments get out of the way, we will be back flying internationally ASAP. So nothing can return to normal until we can actually fly where we want to go. Once that happens I think you will see international travel rebound back closer to pre-COVID numbers even faster than domestic. In my experience international travelers are willing to accept greater risk than purely domestic travelers. Foreigners will flock back to traveling to the USA very quickly as well.

This isn’t Oklahoma City specifically but some good news for airports around the state:

https://okcfox.com/news/local/16m-in-airport-construction-projects-to-commence-across-oklahoma

August is up. Clearly off the bottom. Slow growth.

https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/News/August2020Enplanement.pdf

I flew for the first time since the Pandemic started this weekend from OKC-CLT (and back) on AA. It was a weird experience. Walking through Will Rogers and seeing restaurants closed and it looks like Cool Greens was taken out. All signs had been removed.

The flight itself. The boarding announcements hit the need to wear a mask hard and AA handed out sanitizing wipes as we came onboard. CLT was packed when we got in. Almost looked pre-Pandemic. But, everyone had on masks.

The flight was about 90% full going out on Friday in a CRJ-900 and about 80% full coming back on a CRJ-900. (I also flew CLT-RDU) on a 737 which was 100% full.

Just posting for those that are curious as to how things are.

Did I feel safe? Yes. I did. But, it was because of my actions mostly. I wore a thicker mask with a thicker filter. I didn't bump into people and kept my distance. I used more hand sanitizer than I normally would. I put my mask on as I stepped foot into OKC Airport and did not take it off once while in-flight, at Charlotte Airport or even on my flight to RDU. I didn't take it off until I got out of RDU airport. I used hand sanitizer before I removed it so that I didn't touch my face until my hands were clean.

Just judging by traffic on Meridian I can estimate that aviation traffic is still a fraction of pre covid. I go to/from our two facilities on Meridian just N of the airport and on Air Cargo road a few times a day. Pre covid it was a major PIA to get on Meridian almost any time of the working day. I can still almost not even look and turn left on to Meridian 90% of the time.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/06/coronavirus-pandemic-tests-southwest-airlines-record-of-no-furloughs.html?__twitter_impression=true
Southwest with possible paycuts in lieu of furlough.

Maybe I knew this and forgot, or maybe I didn't know this and just found. Crazy year. UA is only operating 2 flights a day in OKC right now. 737 to IAH and 1 E175 to DEN. Pretty depressing.

Maybe I knew this and forgot, or maybe I didn't know this and just found. Crazy year. UA is only operating 2 flights a day in OKC right now. 737 to IAH and 1 E175 to DEN. Pretty depressing.

That is astounding

It was pointed out to me there were in fact other flights. There must have been a bug in UA's internal metric software last night when I was checking. Because of how strange that seemed, I checked around and several other stations in OKC's group were only showing 1 flight to IAH and 1 flight to DEN. I checked again this morning and it is showing the other flights.

8 a day right now.

3x IAH
2x DEN
2x ORD

Not sure why the system wasn't displaying everything. Sorry!

I just need the AA flight(s) to LAX to return by next summer. Those figure heavily in my travel plans for next summer and fall, assuming we have a Covid-19 vaccine by then. I think everything else I need is still operating. No travel until then unfortunately.

Fun to watch a huge (for us anyway) UA 773 on final this morning over NW OKC. It looks like it was a cargo flight operating from EWR. Any one know anything about this? Scheduled to depart for RIC soon here. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N2136U
Definitely an unusual visitor and routing but nice to see something different in our skies from time to time.

2580 EWR OKC arrived empty, ferry
2572 OKC RIC charter
2581 RIC ORD empty, ferry.

2580 EWR OKC arrived empty, ferry
2572 OKC RIC charter
2581 RIC ORD empty, ferry.

Seems like an odd charter pair. Can’t think of anything obvious (such as a sports event).

now that is has landed in RIC, i can say it's a military charter

https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/News/September2020Enplanement.pdf

Basically flat the last 3 months.

now that is has landed in RIC, i can say it's a military charter Interesting, thanks for the info.

Probably a lot of soldiers from Fort Sill needing to get somewhere soon.

Fun to watch a huge (for us anyway) UA 773 on final this morning over NW OKC. It looks like it was a cargo flight operating from EWR. Any one know anything about this? Scheduled to depart for RIC soon here. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N2136U
Definitely an unusual visitor and routing but nice to see something different in our skies from time to time.

I was wondering what this was. I live near 150th and Western and saw it to my NW. It was MASSIVE.

Southwest Airlines to start service in 2022 at COS (Colorado Springs). It will be interesting to see if this means COS-OKC/TUL is a possibility. Western Pacific Airlines used to fly to COS in the 90's and the last airline to do it was the failed Great Plains Airlines which ran a triangle route TUL-OKC-COS-TUL that ended in 2004. My guess is they start with DEN, PHX, LAS, DAL, HOU and maybe MCI or STL.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/10/22/southwest-airlines-colorado-springs-2021/

Close to 0% chance.

Why? Because Denver?

Why? Because Denver?

that doesn't help, but there is not really any reason to have such a route in their network. It's a low demand route with no connections on either end. COS-OMA, RNO, ICT etc would all have equivalent demand and are equally as unlikely.

I would expect them to add COS-HOU/MDW/LAS. maybe DEN it's not a huge market down here in the springs but is growing.

Is that why we don't have other seemingly useful routes like OKC-ABQ?

that doesn't help, but there is not really any reason to have such a route in their network. It's a low demand route with no connections on either end. COS-OMA, RNO, ICT etc would all have equivalent demand and are equally as unlikely.

I would expect them to add COS-HOU/MDW/LAS. maybe DEN it's not a huge market down here in the springs but is growing.

Agree the route would have to mature considerably to get a flight but good to see Southwest expanding there. And just saying there have been flights there from Oklahoma in the past, it's a great alternative to DEN and just as easy to get to places like Breckenridge and Crested Butte (and you don't have to deal with I-70).

I remember flying West Pac there from TUL in the mid-90's to go skiing or river rafting on the Arkansas. They flew 737's if I remember correctly.

Is that why we don't have other seemingly useful routes like OKC-ABQ?

Okc-Abq could support an E-175 by American or United. I think there (pre-Rona) was like 50-60 passengers daily.

Okc-Abq could support an E-175 by American or United. I think there (pre-Rona) was like 50-60 passengers daily.

Express Jet had it as direct flight around 2005, the flight then continued on to Southern Cali. I loved that flight.

Express Jet had it as direct flight around 2005, the flight then continued on to Southern Cali. I loved that flight.

Great Plains Airlines also had an OKC-ABQ flight. I sometimes wonder if they would’ve been successful had 9/11 not completely destroyed the industry. Using small 30 passenger Fairchild-Dornier 328’s to fly to regional cities like ABQ, COS, AUS, BNA maybe even MCI and MSY.

Express Jet had it as direct flight around 2005, the flight then continued on to Southern Cali. I loved that flight.

Great Plains Airlines also had an OKC-ABQ flight. I sometimes wonder if they would’ve been successful had 9/11 not completely destroyed the industry. Using small 30 passenger Fairchild-Dornier 328’s to fly to regional cities like ABQ, COS, AUS, BNA maybe even MCI and MSY.

Great Plains Airlines also had an OKC-ABQ flight. I sometimes wonder if they would’ve been successful had 9/11 not completely destroyed the industry. Using small 30 passenger Fairchild-Dornier 328’s to fly to regional cities like ABQ, COS, AUS, BNA maybe even MCI and MSY.

I really like those planes, nothing in particular except I just like how they look.

OKC-ABQ would be a point to point type flight. Which SW specializes in, but they fly 737s. AA Delta United have the smaller planes that would service it well, but they operate on hub and spoke.

Via air tried to split the difference with the similar route OKC-AUS, but they were a disorganized unreliable underfunded mess

I wouldn't say these routes are high on their list, but Breeze will be entering the market next year. It will take several years before they grow to the point where OKC would be on their radar. They want to be a high-tech low-cost airline with better customer service and reliability than Allegiant. They plan to offer less than daily point to point service without the hassle of Allegiant, or the cost of the network carriers.

For those unfamiliar, David Neelman is the man behind this. He successfully started jetBlue (USA), Westjet (Canada), and Azul (Brazil). I believe he goes back to the Morris Air days before they were acquired by Southwest. He knows how to run an airline, and knows how to start them.

If they did come to OKC, I don't think COS or ABQ would be on their list, but anything is possible I suppose. I think they will look more like Allegiant's route map but with jetBlue's service. So think north-south leisure routes, not east-west business markets.

I wouldn't say these routes are high on their list, but Breeze will be entering the market next year. It will take several years before they grow to the point where OKC would be on their radar. They want to be a high-tech low-cost airline with better customer service and reliability than Allegiant. They plan to offer less than daily point to point service without the hassle of Allegiant, or the cost of the network carriers.

For those unfamiliar, David Neelman is the man behind this. He successfully started jetBlue (USA), Westjet (Canada), and Azul (Brazil). I believe he goes back to the Morris Air days before they were acquired by Southwest. He knows how to run an airline, and knows how to start them.

If they did come to OKC, I don't think COS or ABQ would be on their list, but anything is possible I suppose. I think they will look more like Allegiant's route map but with jetBlue's service. So think north-south leisure routes, not east-west business markets.

I do think coming out of the pandemic there's an opportunity for OKC to gain more routes that would have otherwise been tough to get because of the lack of fleet capacity. It's like a 25% chance we can actually take advantage of it, but it's there,

I saw Southwest is adding OKC-ATL starting in November. I know this was operational when they started service in ATL, but it was later dropped.

747 landing in OKC. Something you don’t see very often.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/5y8008

747 landing in OKC. Something you don’t see very often.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/5y8008

Or an OKC to Frankfurt flight.

I’m really looking forward to the new observation deck and doing some plane spotting.

Atlas air does not fly passengers, just freight, is that right?

They do fly passengers. No idea if the OKC-FRA flight is passengers or freight though. Does WRWA have the capability to fly passengers internationally?

atlas does fly passengers. they do quite a bit of military charters.

you do not need customs to depart to an international destination, just to handle arrivals.

and WRWA can handle international flight ops and does have a customs office, just not in the terminal - YET.

Weird that the Atlas was going OKC-Frankfurt in that I would think it'd be the other way around with the US military downsizing in Germany.

and WRWA can handle international flight ops and does have a customs office, just not in the terminal - YET.

Weird that the Atlas was going OKC-Frankfurt in that I would think it'd be the other way around with the US military downsizing in Germany.

Downsizing was partly reversed in the last few years as Russia has amped itself up... whole divisions haven't been moved back to Germany, but more US troops are on rotation.

yes, but Trump also downsized Germany recently as part of NATO prioritization. Not sure if this has anything to do with this flight but is why I'm surprised it's not OKC bound rather than departing. ...

yes, but Trump also downsized Germany recently as part of NATO prioritization. Not sure if this has anything to do with this flight but is why I'm surprised it's not OKC bound rather than departing. ...

none of that has really gone into effect yet

United 777 inbound to OKC from SFO. Showing arrival at 11:02am.

United 777 inbound to OKC from SFO. Showing arrival at 11:02am.

I would like if they were coming from the east or north so I could catch them on the approach...

Down 55% and have stabilized there. Going to be a climb back up.

https://www.flyokc.com/sites/default/files/News/November2020Enplanement.pdf

Looks like Frontier is going to make an attempt at OKC-LAS. In the pre and post covid world this makes sense. Leisure route, fairly good sized market. Right now, it's a strange route because honestly, everything is a strange route with 40-50% demand on unprofitable fares.

If the vaccine timeline and efficacy pans out, it feels possible for domestic travel to be back to pre-COVID levels sometime in Q3 2021. We'll see, hopefully I won't be eating my words ten months from now lol.

If the vaccine timeline and efficacy pans out, it feels possible for domestic travel to be back to pre-COVID levels sometime in Q3 2021. We'll see, hopefully I won't be eating my words ten months from now lol.

I think we will see an initial 10-20% "immediate" return, this will be mostly leisure (trips people have postponed from this year). Business travel will probably stay dormant through much of the next year. Business travel will follow convention traffic for the most part, and I think most are expecting a significant delay in that starting. I would bet most business conventions will begin booking once confidence in the vaccine takes place, so many conventions may not start up again until 2022. Business meetings will likely lag further as Zoom will be the "norm" for now, but every tech advance has promised to decimate business travel and one has yet to do it. While people are comfortable with Zoom and Facetime meetings, eventually business travel will get back into the habit of sending real people, but maybe not on the same scale as before.

Leisure travel will definitely return the quickest, but the question still remains: at what fares? People will jump all over $39 one ways to Vegas and Florida, but will the airlines be jumping to fly airplanes at a loss? They are stuck in a chicken and egg scenario as far as the recovery. Stimulate the market with junk fares to get people flying, or restrict capacity so fares will rise and only fly what is essential. The airlines seem to be choosing the former, but it is an expensive proposition. The combined cash burn across the industry is $100 million a day. Loss. Not the cost to operate it, but the final P/L at the end of the day for all of the US airlines is that figure. If demand doesn't return (so far it isn't), the airlines are forced to retreat from that strategy (they are).

I have stopped posting route and frequency updates because they are hard to keep up with at the moment, but the airlines are slashing capacity in Jan and Feb. Across the board. It really sucks. But hopefully we are approaching the end of the tunnel.

I think we will see an initial 10-20% "immediate" return, this will be mostly leisure (trips people have postponed from this year). Business travel will probably stay dormant through much of the next year. Business travel will follow convention traffic for the most part, and I think most are expecting a significant delay in that starting. I would bet most business conventions will begin booking once confidence in the vaccine takes place, so many conventions may not start up again until 2022. Business meetings will likely lag further as Zoom will be the "norm" for now, but every tech advance has promised to decimate business travel and one has yet to do it. While people are comfortable with Zoom and Facetime meetings, eventually business travel will get back into the habit of sending real people, but maybe not on the same scale as before.

Leisure travel will definitely return the quickest, but the question still remains: at what fares? People will jump all over $39 one ways to Vegas and Florida, but will the airlines be jumping to fly airplanes at a loss? They are stuck in a chicken and egg scenario as far as the recovery. Stimulate the market with junk fares to get people flying, or restrict capacity so fares will rise and only fly what is essential. The airlines seem to be choosing the former, but it is an expensive proposition. The combined cash burn across the industry is $100 million a day. Loss. Not the cost to operate it, but the final P/L at the end of the day for all of the US airlines is that figure. If demand doesn't return (so far it isn't), the airlines are forced to retreat from that strategy (they are).

I have stopped posting route and frequency updates because they are hard to keep up with at the moment, but the airlines are slashing capacity in Jan and Feb. Across the board. It really sucks. But hopefully we are approaching the end of the tunnel.

I don't have anything substantive to add, but did want to say thanks for providing a detailed analysis in response to my hunch. Sorry for what your industry has had to deal with this year and really hoping things start to turn around in 2021.