Took a few flights in & out this week on American.

Good news the planes were all full. Bad news is they were CRJ-900s. At least we’re off the bottom and the lows

More of a general article, not OKC specifically, but interesting enough to be posted.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/airlines-coronavirus-capacity_n_5ed83943c5b6513fdffca4e3

I call BS on the last sentence in it, though:

'Airlines for America continues to exclude load factor data from its daily COVID-19 updates. And Pinkerton insisted that flying on a full flight is completely safe.

“If it weren’t,” she said, ”we wouldn’t be doing it.”'

More of a general article, not OKC specifically, but interesting enough to be posted.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/airlines-coronavirus-capacity_n_5ed83943c5b6513fdffca4e3

I call BS on the last sentence in it, though:

'Airlines for America continues to exclude load factor data from its daily COVID-19 updates. And Pinkerton insisted that flying on a full flight is completely safe.

“If it weren’t,” she said, ”we wouldn’t be doing it.”'

I don't get the tone of that article. I heard an interview with WN's Gary Kelley and he outlined a very strict cleaning regimen and policies to keep passengers safe. And, bottom line, if you don't feel it is safe, then don't fly. I don't get why this article portrayed this tone of concern so strongly. It's just the free market, being the free market. If airlines discover a reason to cease flights again for safety reasons, they will, or they will suffer the consequences in the marketplace.

I don't get the tone of that article. I heard an interview with WN's Gary Kelley and he outlined a very strict cleaning regimen and policies to keep passengers safe. And, bottom line, if you don't feel it is safe, then don't fly. I don't get why this article portrayed this tone of concern so strongly. It's just the free market, being the free market. If airlines discover a reason to cease flights again for safety reasons, they will, or they will suffer the consequences in the marketplace.

Some people *must* fly, they don't have a choice, so "if you don't feel is it safe, then don't fly" isn't a valid option, just like "if you don't feel safe, just don't go out" isn't a valid option for tons of people. And WN seems to be an outlier (they're still keeping middle seats empty, for example), so Kelley's statements aren't valid for the rest of the industry. The main gist of the article is that there is no federal guidance and every airline is on their own (much like everything else in this pandemic).

I don't get the tone of that article. I heard an interview with WN's Gary Kelley and he outlined a very strict cleaning regimen and policies to keep passengers safe. And, bottom line, if you don't feel it is safe, then don't fly. I don't get why this article portrayed this tone of concern so strongly. It's just the free market, being the free market. If airlines discover a reason to cease flights again for safety reasons, they will, or they will suffer the consequences in the marketplace.

Covid is so May bro

Covid is so May bro

Haha, right...moving on...nm

What is WN as referenced in the posts just above this one?

What is WN as referenced in the posts just above this one?
WN is the airline code for Southwest Airlines.

Looks like AS has ended the Wichita (ICT) tag and has resumed nonstop service to SEA, albeit on E175. Hopefully we can see more service recoveries soon.

Catch - any thoughts on if AA will kick off their LGA service or you think that is on indefinite hold?

Catch - any thoughts on if AA will kick off their LGA service or you think that is on indefinite hold?

They continue to keep it loaded in future sales windows, you can book it right now in August as well as all of their routes from okc. But they eliminate it on a month-to-month basis. That tells me they intend to operate it, but not at this moment.

They continue to keep it loaded in future sales windows, you can book it right now in August as well as all of their routes from okc. But they eliminate it on a month-to-month basis. That tells me they intend to operate it, but not at this moment.
Thanks man!

Looks like AS has ended the Wichita (ICT) tag and has resumed nonstop service to SEA, albeit on E175. Hopefully we can see more service recoveries soon.

I like the Embracer Jet. I feel like there's more legroom.

I'm flying Thursday. Looking forward to seeing an increase in passengers from what has been reported, though for selfish reasons I'm hoping for an empty pre-check line.

I'm flying Thursday. Looking forward to seeing an increase in passengers from what has been reported, though for selfish reasons I'm hoping for an empty pre-check line.

Pre-check is merged with the regular line right now :-(

Oh, that's right. The last time I flew was the holidays. I totally forgot.

It's a cold nearly snowing morning (in fact I did get a few flakes overnight that have melted), so I am going to use today to put together a few schedules that are current and future. Get us back to square one on what is operating as I completely lost track during the last few months as things were changing so quick. That way as flights get added we can see exactly where we are in the recovery and what changes for us permanently post-covid.


Oh, that's right. The last time I flew was the holidays. I totally forgot.

At least requiring the tsa? :)

Pre-check is merged with the regular line right now :-(

Ugh. Hope that's just temporary.

It’ll be nice to get mainline service again.

Right now it’s Skywest for American eagle for American Airlines on some flights.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/united-taps-frequent-flyer-program-to-back-5-billion-loan-sees-cash-burn-easing.html

At least it’s headed in the right direction.

https://twitter.com/mark_j_perry/status/1272539546744487936?s=21

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1272514476663767040?s=21

https://twitter.com/bretonrlong/status/1271873954404335616?s=21

Still down 80% YOY but the growth trend is clearly there.

It would be helpful when looking at stats, how many business flyers now compared to a year ago. It has been my understanding that is where airlines make their money.

Business demand is still as close to zero as it can be. Leisure is picking up steam, however right now the airlines don't care what kind of traveler you are. Revenue is revenue at this point in time and it at least slows the bleeding.

Business demand is still as close to zero as it can be. Leisure is picking up steam, however right now the airlines don't care what kind of traveler you are. Revenue is revenue at this point in time and it at least slows the bleeding.

We have looked at flights several times and it seems flights are high and schedules are slim with bad connection times so we haven't booked any.

Chicken and egg scenario. Airlines are afraid to add capacity, but the lack of capacity is negatively affecting demand in the form of schedule effectiveness and network robustness. At some point they need to return services to something a little more usable than what is out there currently. AA and WN are the two that seem to be going that route, while UA and DL operate a skeleton schedule.

Chicken and egg scenario. Airlines are afraid to add capacity, but the lack of capacity is negatively affecting demand in the form of schedule effectiveness and network robustness. At some point they need to return services to something a little more usable than what is out there currently. AA and WN are the two that seem to be going that route, while UA and DL operate a skeleton schedule.

I'm starting to fly again, and once again AA is the best for schedule, price and availability. Glad they've doubled down. No mainline service yet but I'm doing my part to try and get that back.

I'm starting to fly again, and once again AA is the best for schedule, price and availability. Glad they've doubled down. No mainline service yet but I'm doing my part to try and get that back.

Just curious are your trips for business or leisure? If the former what is your company's policy on booking premium cabin or premium economy right now? If you don't mind me prying.

https://i.imgur.com/CTjKUq1.png

Just curious are your trips for business or leisure? If the former what is your company's policy on booking premium cabin or premium economy right now? If you don't mind me prying.

https://i.imgur.com/CTjKUq1.png

Business. I’m allowed to book first. I think this trip to PHX was round trip like $400 in first.

Cool. That's a good price. Thanks

Cool. That's a good price. Thanks

We looked for tickets to Harlingen, TX or Brownsville and everything we found was $500 plus for coach (United or SW). AA was over $1500. These were midweek tickets but only 7-9 days out. For a $1000 plus, we are driving and get the added bonus of taking the Dane with us.

I've flown into Harlingen. Very limited service there even during normal times, could that be a factor in the price?

We looked for tickets to Harlingen, TX or Brownsville and everything we found was $500 plus for coach (United or SW). AA was over $1500. These were midweek tickets but only 7-9 days out. For a $1000 plus, we are driving and get the added bonus of taking the Dane with us.

That's pretty steep, bringing the dog along is always worth it. I find myself driving more just for that reason. Plus flying has turned into a huge pain in the ass - literally, the seats are getting worse every year.


I've flown into Harlingen. Very limited service there even during normal times, could that be a factor in the price?

probably, plus texas and florida are leading the domestic demand recovery right now, specifically people flying to those places. most of the country's capacity increases the past month have been to vacation points in those states. that rush of demand can't help with pricing either.

Stronger mandatory mask rules. Wonder if other airlines will follow

https://hub.united.com/2020-06-15-united-airlines-strengthens-onboard-mask-policy-to-further-protect-passengers-and-employees-against-covid-19-spread-2646175010.html

American Airlines switched my connection from LAX to DFW without me knowing :/ thankfully it is in August, but it would have been nice to know, since I had originally paid for seat upgrades.

Stronger mandatory mask rules. Wonder if other airlines will follow

https://hub.united.com/2020-06-15-united-airlines-strengthens-onboard-mask-policy-to-further-protect-passengers-and-employees-against-covid-19-spread-2646175010.htmlAmerican started the policy yesterday. https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-mask-flying-ban/

I think I also saw where Delta joined the group late yesterday but I don't know their start date of enforcement.

May numbers running pretty late this month

Wonder if they forgot to post it. Usually airlines report previous month traffic about 10 days into the month. Maybe they are working from home so that has routines for posting stuff like that out of whack.

We know they read this thread so they'll see it and get it up

Still no May statistics. Weird

UA just loaded Aug schedule

OKC-
DEN: 2x E75
IAH: 2x E75 1x 73G
ORD: 2x E75

That more or less than July

That more or less than July

Same except for the mainline to IAH is a E75 in July.

Still no May statistics. Weird

maybe we will get May and June together :)

maybe we will get May and June together :)

How common does this occurance happen?

How common does this occurance happen?

I've never seen a traffic release occur past the 20th of the month for WRWA. Some airports don't release traffic data until 60-90 days after the month ended, so we are somewhat spoiled here. Airlines usually close out their internal traffic reports by the 7th or 8th (believe it or not in the digital age there is still quite a lot of manual reconciliation of internal stats) and post their monthly systemwide traffic reports to investors by the 10th. I'm not as familiar with how it is distributed to the airports, but it usually seems WRWA puts out their numbers between the 10th and 15th so I assume they receive more granular traffic data from the airlines when the report is generated for investors, this probably has to do with fee collection by the various airports.

We are also blessed that WRWA breaks down the total by marketing carrier instead of operating carrier - they used to not (they would only list total passengers) until I inquired years ago and they started doing it. Some airports release data based on operating carrier which really makes it more difficult. For example they will SkyWest as their own carrier - good luck figuring out how many of those SkyWest passengers were on United, American, Delta, or Alaska.

WRWA really comes through top notch for easily accessible and digestible stats, as well as timely (except for now :)).

United has some big layoffs coming per reports. Catch, any word?

United has some big layoffs coming per reports. Catch, any word?

You know as much as I do :)

AA is ending OKC-PHL. Appears to be permanent.

The good news is they had quite a bit of data on this route in the pre-covid world. So once traffic recovers I don't see why this route won't come back. Transatlantic demand is decimated for the foreseeable future, and PHL was AA's main transatlantic connecting hub. This isn't surprising.

Yep. This is a massive hole to dig out of.

Traffic will fall off a cliff in September. All four of my American flights were packed with tourists this week. Very little business traffic.

OKC picked the wrong year(s) to be productive. The new CC has a chance to fail, and they are expanding the airport, when airlines are shrinking routes everywhere. This is not an OKC issue alone, of course. Just the timing couldn't be worse. But that is OKC's thing.

Could be worse. Could own a high end apartment in NY

OKC picked the wrong year(s) to be productive. The new CC has a chance to fail, and they are expanding the airport, when airlines are shrinking routes everywhere. This is not an OKC issue alone, of course. Just the timing couldn't be worse. But that is OKC's thing.

Well you have to do it sometime. DEN is spending billions expanding the main terminal and all 3 concourses. SLC is completely rebuilding their airport top to bottom. MCO is undergoing a significant expansion. You have to get both feet in the water at some time. SLC is taking advantage of the situation by advancing the construction timeline since they will have less flights, so less disruption by construction.

Well you have to do it sometime. DEN is spending billions expanding the main terminal and all 3 concourses. SLC is completely rebuilding their airport top to bottom. MCO is undergoing a significant expansion. You have to get both feet in the water at some time. SLC is taking advantage of the situation by advancing the construction timeline since they will have less flights, so less disruption by construction.

That is true. But all of those airports are hubs or focus cities that airlines want to keep developing. OKC is a disposable market, especially when oil is $35/bbl. OKC should have had deals in place for new routes before building. Granted, a pandemic was not predicted. But airlines are probably figuring which cities are profitable and worth growing, and OKC is NOT one, in my opinion. Not enough business travelers.

I'd argue that American has been developing OKC into a focus city of some sort. At the end of the day the airlines pay for this through increased rent, landing fees, and passenger facility charges (paid by the passenger). Cost-per-enplanement is very important to the airlines, and they don't typically agree to airports spending money needlessly that the airlines eventually pay for by increased CPE. Any major project like this will have significant airline approval before proceeding.

Could it be a benefit to have fewer people impacted by the construction?

I'd argue that American has been developing OKC into a focus city of some sort. At the end of the day the airlines pay for this through increased rent, landing fees, and passenger facility charges (paid by the passenger). Cost-per-enplanement is very important to the airlines, and they don't typically agree to airports spending money needlessly that the airlines eventually pay for by increased CPE. Any major project like this will have significant airline approval before proceeding.

They were, then they take away a prized route for OKC. And OKC awarded 4 new gates to an airline that doesn't give 2 craps about OKC, other than getting more handouts from them. I hope it works out for OKC, but the timing, aside from a construction standpoint, could not have been worse. The travel market will plummet in the fall and winter, at least by air, in my opinion. Especially since there is nowhere to go.

I don't know what to tell you guys - if anyone can see into the future they have a promising career ahead of them in consulting or weather forecasting. I think the timing is fine. Losing PHL sucks, but you have to look at everything else AA has added in the past few years. Aside from BOS, they have pretty much completed OKC's wishlist. And PHL will likely return when transatlantic yields return.

I don't know what to tell you guys - if anyone can see into the future they have a promising career ahead of them in consulting or weather forecasting. I think the timing is fine. Losing PHL sucks, but you have to look at everything else AA has added in the past few years. Aside from BOS, they have pretty much completed OKC's wishlist. And PHL will likely return when transatlantic yields return.

I was not bashing you, as you have much more industry experience than I do. Just from the outside looking in, I can see the expansion bankrupting the airport, if those gates stay empty (and the corresponding gates Delta currently has not getting replaced by new airlines or expanded services). I will give OKC the benefit of the doubt, and I hope it benefits us here greatly!

All in all, it's not that much money. These are long term bonds that won't be influenced by the revenue from short term passengers trends. The airport spends a lot of money on its own pet projects such as the taxiways to nowhere (the FAA provided some funding for this) on the east side of the field.

All in all, it's not that much money. These are long term bonds that won't be influenced by the revenue from short term passengers trends. The airport spends a lot of money on its own pet projects such as the taxiways to nowhere (the FAA provided some funding for this) on the east side of the field.
Catch - why are they doing that?