I would mainly be worried I could get stuck if they shut down the airports. I doubt my flights in two weeks are even flying anyway.

Denver's conservative? Not in 15 years!

I never said that. I am talking about line stations. Hubs like denver have originating traffic from 100 or more cities. The data is largely irrelevant in this application.

Tomorrow 3/13:

OKC - 86% load factor
TUL - 86%
OMA - 81%
MCI - 81%
ABQ - 74%
DFW - 74% (not a ua hub)
BNA - 68%
AUS - 67%
STL - 62%
MEM - 60%
ORF - 59%
PDX - 58%
SAt - 57%
MSY - 56%

Fascinating. Thanks Catch. I'm taking that similar outlook and approach. Have a trip to HNL for work scheduled 30 March - 2 Apr, and I'm hoping the meeting doesn't get cancelled. When I booked the flights on Tuesday, I was able to get seats on each flight without neighbors... we'll see how it all progresses.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-13-20-intl-hnk/h_880ab4411b837f369c5511561cba7c39

Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. I would expect similar announcements from the other carriers soon.

I just received 3 "scheduling" type emails from the hub manager in denver, there are 3 employee "town halls" next week. They are timed to catch employees of all shifts. I have a feeling I know what those will be about.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-13-20-intl-hnk/h_880ab4411b837f369c5511561cba7c39

Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. I would expect similar announcements from the other carriers soon.

I just received 3 "scheduling" type emails from the hub manager in denver, there are 3 employee "town halls" next week. They are timed to catch employees of all shifts. I have a feeling I know what those will be about.

I hope the best for you, but just know that when all this clears up we'll all need a vacation so hopefully anything that happens is temporary.

Some really good prices on airline Tix out of OKC, and all the airlines doing no fee on changes if ticket booked before March 31.
Don't fly if you are sick, but if you are well then round trip into Vail/Aspen for under $250 is a bargain.

What a difference 72hours makes.
11 of the 46 confirmed Colorado Covid-19 cases are in Eagle Co. 7 are new in a 24hr period.
I'll hold off on my spring skiing and try again next year.

OKC has fallen off a cliff this weekend. Reality setting in? OKC (UA) has a 42.1% load factor today.

Load factors (systemwide UA) for 3/16

ATL 56.3%
DEN 52.5%
DFW 49.1%
BNA 45.8%
MEM 45.7%
TUL 44.1%
IAH 44.0%
OKC 42.1%
EWR 38.7%
SFO 37.3%
OMA 35.9%

Catch - Can you clarify for me that "load factor" is simply the percentage of occupied seats versus available seats on all flights during that period? Any exceptions such as non-rev, etc.?

Catch - Can you clarify for me that "load factor" is simply the percentage of occupied seats versus available seats on all flights during that period? Any exceptions such as non-rev, etc.?

Correct - 75 seats sold vs 100 available is a 75% load factor. Non revs are included and not included at the same time. If a non rev has a seat assignment and boarded the report I am using will count them - if they are listed for the flight but not cleared they do not count. Other reports may vary and the final report filed with the DOT may or may not contain them.

In OKC's case 516 sold vs 1226 for sale today.

Correct - 75 seats sold vs 100 available is a 75% load factor. Non revs are included and not included at the same time. If a non rev has a seat assignment and boarded the report I am using will count them - if they are listed for the flight but not cleared they do not count. Other reports may vary and the final report filed with the DOT may or may not contain them.

In OKC's case 516 sold vs 1226 for sale today.

Thank you!

In the charter world, owners & operators are changing practices. Some owners are grounding their aircraft for fear of contamination. Some operators are not accepting new, unknown charter clients. Others are implementing new policies for pax screening, cabin cleaning & flight ops (closed partitions between crew & pax).

April cuts for UA

OKC-DEN reduced to 3x daily (down from 6)
OKC-IAH reduced to 6x daily (down from 8)
OKC-ORD reduced to 3x daily (down from 4)
OKC-IAD reduced to 1x daily (down from 2)
OKC-SFO remains at 1x daily. Not sure why, there are only 80 people booked to SFO for the entire week of April 5.

More to come I am sure

April cuts for UA
OKC-SFO remains at 1x daily. Not sure why, there are only 80 people booked to SFO for the entire week of April 5.

More to come I am sure

The entire Bay Area is locked down, so I don’t even know how CSAs, rampers, car rental agents, taxi drivers, etc. get to the airport. Once a pax arrives, where do they go? What do they do?

April.

Delta reduces ATL-OKC to 5 daily down from 6.
Delta reduces MSP-OKC to 1 daily down from 2.

Southwest reduces STL-OKC to 1 daily down from 2.

Not bad. As usual, there will be more.

Probably a good time to get after some deferred maintenance on some aircrafts

Probably a good time to get after some deferred maintenance on some aircrafts

Cash flow. Surviving is goal #1. If it's not critical it isn't being fixed. We are rotating aircraft to spread around hours so we don't consume cycle or time (hours) parts too fast. It's pretty dark times right now.

Correct - 75 seats sold vs 100 available is a 75% load factor. Non revs are included and not included at the same time. If a non rev has a seat assignment and boarded the report I am using will count them - if they are listed for the flight but not cleared they do not count. Other reports may vary and the final report filed with the DOT may or may not contain them.

In OKC's case 516 sold vs 1226 for sale today.

Dating myself, but I remember my airline pilot dad saying US airlines were profitable with 40-50% load factors in the 60's & 70's- pre-Arab oil embargo. What is break-even LF now- at least pre-COVID-19?

Dating myself, but I remember my airline pilot dad saying US airlines were profitable with 40-50% load factors in the 60's & 70's- pre-Arab oil embargo. What is break-even LF now- at least pre-COVID-19?

Pre-COVID 70-75% would break even.

Cash flow. Surviving is goal #1. If it's not critical it isn't being fixed. We are rotating aircraft to spread around hours so we don't consume cycle or time (hours) parts too fast. It's pretty dark times right now.

Some cocktail napkin math based on some recent quarterly reports.

Daily cost to run United $83 million/day

Pre-COVID revenue: $88 million/day
Current revenue: $35 million/day which is likely way off. Realistically this number is closer to $0 Than it is $35 million

Some cocktail napkin math based on some recent quarterly reports.

Daily cost to run United $83 million/day

Pre-COVID revenue: $88 million/day
Current revenue: $35 million/day which is likely way off. Realistically this number is closer to $0 Than it is $35 million

This is where I get mad when people say let the airlines fail. Yes the optics of stock buybacks look bad. Heck, I don't agree with them in all instances either. But this is a capital intensive, low margin business. The airlines never had nor never will have the internal cash flow to fund large capital expenses. People want to fly on the newest airplanes for the cheapest price. The only way to do that is to get investors on board. We can't offer dividends, the only thing we can offer to the investment community is an appreciation of their assets (stocks). It is essential to return cash and value to shareholders in this business because there is really no other way to order hundreds of billions of dollars of aircraft, equipment, and technology without the investment community.

People think airlines are unfair, and sure in many ways it feels that way. But it is a dizzying thought to think of how much it costs to run one. We are damned if we do and damned if we don't.

Airlines could absolutely offer dividends. Also stock buy back. Has not proven to be in any way a boost to stock price. Those results are very very mixed.

Dating myself, but I remember my airline pilot dad saying US airlines were profitable with 40-50% load factors in the 60's & 70's- pre-Arab oil embargo. What is break-even LF now- at least pre-COVID-19?

Thanks. Things sure have changed since my old man flew for Continental!

Pre-COVID 70-75% would break even.

Thanks. Things are sure a lot different since the old man flew 707's & 727's for Continental!

Just saw this :

Travelers passing through US TSA Checkpoints:

March 20, 2020: 593,167

March 20, 2019: 2,559,307

76.83% decrease

Cash flow. Surviving is goal #1. If it's not critical it isn't being fixed. We are rotating aircraft to spread around hours so we don't consume cycle or time (hours) parts too fast. It's pretty dark times right now.

Yep. General population ain’t quite grasping this is an extinction event, not a get some maintenance done.

Some of that is the airlines fault blowing through all their cash with buybacks.

You can’t let them fail though. Just creates a bigger mess.

We’ll see some regulation for minimum cash reserves for large publicly traded companies.

United spent 3% of operating income on share repurchases in the last 2 last years. Here are some of United's large expenses last year

Salaries: 12 Billion
Fuel: 8.9 billion
Landing fees: 2.5 billion
Common stock repurchases: 1.6 billion
Cash into the bank: 1 billion (2.8 billion in bank account at YE 2019)
Federal Income tax: 906 million

Airlines pump a ton of money into the economy and they surely didn't blow all of their cash on buybacks. Everyone has to be taken care of in a company. Employees, customers, and investors.

Also buybacks do provide the company the ability to sell stock and bring back cash, however no one could have predicted a global financial collapse affecting every sector. United stock was an asset that could be converted to cash if needed - now, no company has stock worth anything. Unless you are Clorox or Bayer. Easy to point fingers.

The problem with, you can sell it back later if you need the cash.

Your stock has plummeted when you need the cash.

Buybacks their own aren’t inherently evil but they do need to be restricted. You can’t say no problem here we just need $50 billion despite having spent $42 on buybacks the past 6 years.

If they put that money for share repurchase from the past 2 years in the bank instead that would fund the airline for approximately 26 days. There's no reasonable amount of money to say they should put in the bank that can save an airline from a complete collapse of demand. Even if they parked all of the airplanes, all rent, leases, and utilities frozen for 3 months. That money would only cover payroll for 80 days for employees to sit at home. And then it would cost billions to get the airline moving again.

This is just unprecedented. 10 billion in free cash in the bank would cover the company for a 90 day grounding. There probably aren't a lot of companies that can keep that much cash on hand, especially one with extremely high costs and thin margins such as airlines.

This isn't a failure of the airline model, this is a failure of the government to protect the economy. The airlines aren't looking for free money. They are looking for low interest loans and protection to ride out the storm. Just as every other industry.

Airline bad. Charged me for a bag.. Airline bad.

@catch22, I see that Emirates has suspended passenger flights but is still flying cargo. How much cargo is United hauling?

This isn't a failure of the airline model, this is a failure of the government to protect the economy. The airlines aren't looking for free money. They are looking for low interest loans and protection to ride out the storm. Just as every other industry.

Airline bad. Charged me for a bag.. Airline bad.

Airline is more than welcome to charge any fees they want. That’s not really what I’m getting at.

And you’re right the Feds bear some responsibility for shutting the economy down.

But the airlines operated with little cash on hand in a cash intensive business. That’s on them.

Airline is more than welcome to charge any fees they want. That’s not really what I’m getting at.

And you’re right the Feds bear some responsibility for shutting the economy down.

But the airlines operated with little cash on hand in a cash intensive business. That’s on them.

From a business perspective is it even wise to have a ton of money in the bank? If your share price suddenly crashes it could make you a prime hostile takeover target. If every company hoarded their cash how much would that impact GDP by having money removed from the entire economy? If every fortune 500 company hoarded away 10 billion in cash, that would remove 5 trillion out of the working economy to sit in a bank waiting on a disaster that is literally once in a century.

From a business perspective is it even wise to have a ton of money in the bank? If your share price suddenly crashes it could make you a prime hostile takeover target. If every company hoarded their cash how much would that impact GDP by having money removed from the entire economy? If every fortune 500 company hoarded away 10 billion in cash, that would remove 5 trillion out of the working economy to sit in a bank waiting on a disaster that is literally once in a century.

I mean given the events of this week, probably good to have big piles of cash. I mean is Apple a takeover target?

And if your share price crashes then it’s something the individual’s price and you might be a takeover, but if everyone’s crashes nah no takeover there.

Something has to change, we can’t have huge govt bailouts every single time there’s a recession.

Tie government aid to taxes paid?

Tie government aid to taxes paid?
Great starting point.

Something has to change, we can’t have huge govt bailouts every single time there’s a recession.

I don't disagree with that, but this isn't a recession caused by any mismanagement of any of the industries that are effected. I believe this is the first time airlines have ever needed bailing out? This quite literally is the entire economy needing to be propped up the best they can.

Anyone that knows me knows that I lurrrrvvvv to harp on major corporations and wall street greed. This one is for once not their fault. I'd say do whatever it takes to keep this ship afloat.

I was wrong there was a bailout in 2001 after 9/11, again completely out of the control of the airlines.

It's not like the airlines are always begging for bailouts.

Interesting read:

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/airlines-bailout-coronavirus.html

I don't disagree with that, but this isn't a recession caused by any mismanagement of any of the industries that are effected. I believe this is the first time airlines have ever needed bailing out? This quite literally is the entire economy needing to be propped up the best they can.

Anyone that knows me knows that I lurrrrvvvv to harp on major corporations and wall street greed. This one is for once not their fault. I'd say do whatever it takes to keep this ship afloat.

I’m with you

But it’s fair to say what behaviors leading up to this can change?

I think a lot will change naturally.

I’m with you

But it’s fair to say what behaviors leading up to this can change?

I think a lot will change naturally.

I think so. Whoever survives this will likely have a better cash plan in place, but nothing of what could cover the costs of this. That's my point. No one even knows what this will cost and no one foresaw this.

United had $50 billion in assets. However all of those assets are only useful to other airlines. The normal hedge is that one company in trouble can liquidate those assets; there's no contingency for the entire industry being cut off at the knees. Those assets are worthless. No one needs airplanes all of a sudden. No one needs extra slots at LHR, no one needs extra ground equipment or prime gates.

Heck at the rate things are going no one even needs the coke cans you could make out of the airplanes. It really just is an unfortunate turn of events for every sector.

Very well put. No business such as this - and many others - can possibly be expected to survive a 100 to near 0 drop in business for much of any period of time. Airlines have an enormous investment in fixed assets and operate on a very thin profit margin. Any interruption in the revenue stream will very quickly eat up reasonable cash assets.

Just flew back in tonight. Plane empty even though DL had cancelled quite a few flights. The parking garage was eerily empty with less than ten cars on average on each floor I was on.

This is sad... All of the empty seats... I just sit here thinking it would be fun to buy a bunch of segments and airport hop for a few days.

Not that it even matters anymore...

UA departing load factors (as a whole for each respective city) tomorrow, just random cities:

PDX: 29%
DEN: 25%
IAH: 24%
SFO: 24%
EWR: 22%
LAS: 21%
IAD: 20%
ORD: 19%
SEA: 17%
OKC: 15%
BOS: 15%
BNA: 12%
LGA: 11%
OMA: 11%
TUL: 11%

Honest question, why not just shut the airports down?

^ Surprised no one has, yet.

This is where I get mad when people say let the airlines fail. Yes the optics of stock buybacks look bad. Heck, I don't agree with them in all instances either. But this is a capital intensive, low margin business. The airlines never had nor never will have the internal cash flow to fund large capital expenses. People want to fly on the newest airplanes for the cheapest price. The only way to do that is to get investors on board. We can't offer dividends, the only thing we can offer to the investment community is an appreciation of their assets (stocks). It is essential to return cash and value to shareholders in this business because there is really no other way to order hundreds of billions of dollars of aircraft, equipment, and technology without the investment community.

People think airlines are unfair, and sure in many ways it feels that way. But it is a dizzying thought to think of how much it costs to run one. We are damned if we do and damned if we don't.

Welcome to the world of being involved in an industry that everyone loves to hate...at least it will stop for yours when things get back to normal :tongue:

Welcome to the world of being involved in an industry that everyone loves to hate...at least it will stop for yours when things get back to normal :tongue:

They at least have some friends.


We have no friends. Which isn't politics, we actually have no friends. Dems obvs hate O&G, Trump tweeted like a week ago he loves cheap gasoline prices. Lol

They at least have some friends.


We have no friends. Which isn't politics, we actually have no friends. Dems obvs hate O&G, Trump tweeted like a week ago he loves cheap gasoline prices. Lol

O&G loves to play the woe is me card. Dems don't hate O&G. They had O&G PEOPLE who like to act like there is nothing to climate change, who do what they can to block responsible green energy development, who deny there is a future in alternative energy, who take undue gambles with investor money, who operate expense their royalty owners unduly, etc. My family has been fed by O&G for decades, yet I have been legally cheated out of receiving fair value for royalty ownership, etc. If O&G has a target on their back, it's because they put it there.

O&G loves to play the woe is me card. Dems don't hate O&G. They had O&G PEOPLE who like to act like there is nothing to climate change, who do what they can to block responsible green energy development, who deny there is a future in alternative energy, who take undue gambles with investor money, who operate expense their royalty owners unduly, etc. My family has been fed by O&G for decades, yet I have been legally cheated out of receiving fair value for royalty ownership, etc. If O&G has a target on their back, it's because they put it there.

Don't disagree with that either

United has canceled 2,181 flights today. These do not include flights that were removed from the schedule due to trimming. These were flights intended to operate. Systemwide load factor: 19.7%.

Bailout money for stock buybacks? Why, so Dougie can in a few years sell $90 million in AA stock again? (Assuming AA is still around). The suits and shareholders will be just fine. There are folks looking at months and months of ZERO income and because this is America, no health care and no social safety net either. Having said that, let's see what actually happens with this current bailout, and if it actually gets money to those who need it most, not the big wig corporate types who I have zero sympathy for. I love aviation and flying around the world as much as anyone. If bailout money goes to the rampers and agents and FAs so they can feed their families - great! Otherwise, no thanks.

So far from what I know the intent of the stimulus bill is to keep the lights on and keep employees from being furloughed until the other side of the demand trench.

In fact I believe the bill forbids and common stock purchases until the loans are repaid and for a year beyond that.

My wife has to fly this weekend and it appears to only have about ten people on the plane at this point

AA LAX-OKC last night only had 6 PAX according to a friend who was on the flight crew.

Effective April 6 - May (approximately as carriers have different schedule windows)

AA suspends DCA-OKC
AA reduces DFW-OKC to 8x daily from 9x
AA suspends LAX-OKC
AA reduces ORD-OKC to 2x daily from 3x
AA suspends PHL-OKC
DL reduces ATL-OKC down to 3x daily from 6x
DL suspends DTW-OKC
DL reduces SLC-OKC to 1x daily down from 2x
UA reduces IAH-OKC to 6x daily, down from 7x and 8x prior year.
WN reduces BWI-OKC to 0.6 daily (this might be suspended)
WN reduces DEN-OKC to 2x daily down from 3x

hopefully we can get out of this and emerge better than ever- quoting Trump!

Effective April 6 - May (approximately as carriers have different schedule windows)

AA suspends DCA-OKC
AA reduces DFW-OKC to 8x daily from 9x
AA suspends LAX-OKC
AA reduces ORD-OKC to 2x daily from 3x
AA suspends PHL-OKC
DL reduces ATL-OKC down to 3x daily from 6x
DL suspends DTW-OKC
DL reduces SLC-OKC to 1x daily down from 2x
UA reduces IAH-OKC to 6x daily, down from 7x and 8x prior year.
WN reduces BWI-OKC to 0.6 daily (this might be suspended)
WN reduces DEN-OKC to 2x daily down from 3x

Any data available on the impact this has on landing fees & other revenue loss @ OKC. Is that reported somewhere?

Would be interesting to see how OKC's flight losses compare to other similar-sized airports. Is OKC getting the shaft more than, say, Omaha? Just curious.