View Full Version : 2020 Oklahoma City Aviation Thread
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no1cub17 02-12-2020, 09:39 PM I might try them again if they've truly improved, but when I was stranded it was "hey we know it's Thursday but we don't have another flight for you until Sunday". That's beyond inconvenient. It's been nearly three years since that, so, again, open to the idea that they've fixed something.
As long as they don't interline with other carriers, that's always going to be the case with Allegiant. A newer fleet has translated to better operations, but even new planes break down. The legacy airlines all interline with each other so if AA cancels on you they can rebook you on UA or DL. WN also doesn't interline but they have a much different operation than G4.
Edmond Hausfrau 02-12-2020, 09:52 PM As long as they don't interline with other carriers, that's always going to be the case with Allegiant. A newer fleet has translated to better operations, but even new planes break down. The legacy airlines all interline with each other so if AA cancels on you they can rebook you on UA or DL. WN also doesn't interline but they have a much different operation than G4.
This.
Flying Allegiant is like flying a charter. Miss your window and you are trapped in Tierra del Fuego til next Sunday.
brianinok 02-13-2020, 10:14 AM Hop,
https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/January2020Enplanement.pdfAmerican continues to grow. They are within striking distance of Southwest.
Big news today that AA and AS are re-tying the knot, and AS will be joining Oneworld. It would be nice to codeshare that AS flight to SEA, not only as a nonstop but onward to Hawaii and Alaska on some vacations.
gopokes88 02-13-2020, 11:38 AM American is crushing it. Adding even more capacity with LGA, plus we might see some routes upgraded to mainline when the max gets in the air in Q3/4.
no1cub17 02-13-2020, 11:58 AM American continues to grow. They are within striking distance of Southwest.
Big news today that AA and AS are re-tying the knot, and AS will be joining Oneworld. It would be nice to codeshare that AS flight to SEA, not only as a nonstop but onward to Hawaii and Alaska on some vacations.
I wonder if eventually SEA-OKC goes up to 2x daily with one flight operated by AA? That would be awesome.
jdizzle 02-13-2020, 01:20 PM I wonder if eventually SEA-OKC goes up to 2x daily with one flight operated by AA? That would be awesome.
Eh, AA is nowhere near a hub there. Delta is more a hub there than AA. But 2x on Alaska is doable (or have a 1x PDX flight).
BG918 02-13-2020, 02:12 PM Eh, AA is nowhere near a hub there. Delta is more a hub there than AA. But 2x on Alaska is doable (or have a 1x PDX flight).
AA is adding some international flights from SEA like BGL (Bangalore India) and LHR, and could add more as part of the alliance with Alaska.
damonsmuz 02-13-2020, 03:41 PM Good news out of Stillwater Regional Airport. Passenger count was up 8% in 2019 vs 2018. Stilly only has service to DFW on AA, but the fact that AA is increasing service out of OKC and 58,000 passengers flew out of SWO last year on AA shows that the love for AA in Oklahoma is strong. I wonder who is flying out of Stillwater,though. People that would've flown out of OKC or TUL?
gopokes88 02-13-2020, 03:45 PM Good news out of Stillwater Regional Airport. Passenger count was up 8% in 2019 vs 2018. Stilly only has service to DFW on AA, but the fact that AA is increasing service out of OKC and 58,000 passengers flew out of SWO last year on AA shows that the love for AA in Oklahoma is strong. I wonder who is flying out of Stillwater,though. People that would've flown out of OKC or TUL?
The surrounding area has 150k people closer to Stillwater than okc or Tulsa. Plus osu mandates all travel to Dallas is by air.
Fletch 02-13-2020, 04:17 PM Is American still restricted with amount of mainline flights in OKC it can have? Seems like I had heard that before since they contracted out below wing services years ago.
damonsmuz 02-13-2020, 04:41 PM So, those people that are flying out of SWO. If SWO didn't have AA, then would they have flown out of TUL or OKC?
gopokes88 02-13-2020, 06:22 PM So, those people that are flying out of SWO. If SWO didn't have AA, then would they have flown out of TUL or OKC?
Pretty much yeah.
You have to figure some pure growth as well.
Weekend Dallas trip.
Previously rather than drive to okc to fly to Dallas, people would just drive the entire distance.
Now some will jump on a flight and be there in 40 mins + 50min for security and boarding.
I imagine kids from Dallas at osu is a big draw.
BG918 02-13-2020, 06:56 PM Pretty much yeah.
You have to figure some pure growth as well.
Weekend Dallas trip.
Previously rather than drive to okc to fly to Dallas, people would just drive the entire distance.
Now some will jump on a flight and be there in 40 mins + 50min for security and boarding.
I imagine kids from Dallas at osu is a big draw.
I would imagine the number of people flying to Dallas for a weekend from OKC or Tulsa (or Stillwater) is pretty small. It’s a 3.5 hour drive from OKC and 4.5 hours from Stillwater/Tulsa plus you have your car. There is definitely business traffic during the week. Most are still likely flying to DFW for connections.
sooner333 02-13-2020, 07:39 PM If OSU requires employees to fly to Dallas if on work-related trips, my guess is that in the past there would have been some employees driving to Dallas instead of flying out of OKC or TUL.
Zorba 02-13-2020, 10:59 PM If OSU requires employees to fly to Dallas if on work-related trips, my guess is that in the past there would have been some employees driving to Dallas instead of flying out of OKC or TUL.
When I was grad student I did a business trip to Dallas and my prof and I both drove. That was in 2006. My in-laws live in SWO and they tend to split TUL vs OKC, they almost always fly WN, so haven't ever flown out of SWO.
gopokes88 02-14-2020, 10:46 AM I would imagine the number of people flying to Dallas for a weekend from OKC or Tulsa (or Stillwater) is pretty small. It’s a 3.5 hour drive from OKC and 4.5 hours from Stillwater/Tulsa plus you have your car. There is definitely business traffic during the week. Most are still likely flying to DFW for connections.
Do you have any idea how many rich Dallas sorority girls are at OSU?
^Very true. I knew quite a few people in school who would fly home to Dallas for the weekend instead of driving.
damonsmuz 02-29-2020, 09:15 PM Was flying out of OKC today and the people at United were working a Sun Country flight. Had no idea that Sun Country had charters here. Where do they fly?
catch22 02-29-2020, 11:48 PM Was flying out of OKC today and the people at United were working a Sun Country flight. Had no idea that Sun Country had charters here. Where do they fly?
Usually casino charters to Laughlin.
no1cub17 03-01-2020, 11:28 AM Was flying out of OKC today and the people at United were working a Sun Country flight. Had no idea that Sun Country had charters here. Where do they fly?
Looks like they flew to Gulfport/Biloxi yesterday:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SCX8151/history/20200229/1905Z/KOKC/KGPT
I had no idea these flights existed, and can't even find anything on the internet. Must be a private charter.
catch22 03-01-2020, 12:03 PM Looks like they flew to Gulfport/Biloxi yesterday:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SCX8151/history/20200229/1905Z/KOKC/KGPT
I had no idea these flights existed, and can't even find anything on the internet. Must be a private charter.
Usually casinos will comp them to their frequent gamblers. Or comp the stay if you cover airfare.
catch22 03-01-2020, 12:15 PM Casino Express does some
https://casinosexpresstours.com/16-reservations.html
gopokes88 03-01-2020, 12:45 PM https://oklahoman.com/article/5656124/grant-program-would-guarantee-airline-revenue-on-some-new-routes
Bunty 03-01-2020, 03:05 PM Good news out of Stillwater Regional Airport. Passenger count was up 8% in 2019 vs 2018. Stilly only has service to DFW on AA, but the fact that AA is increasing service out of OKC and 58,000 passengers flew out of SWO last year on AA shows that the love for AA in Oklahoma is strong. I wonder who is flying out of Stillwater,though. People that would've flown out of OKC or TUL?
https://www.poncacitynow.com/stillwater-regional-airport-sees-growth-in-passenger-traffic/
Hopefully, another destination, such as Chicago can be added in the near future and encourage more passengers. Manhattan, KS airport passenger count was 70,705 in 2018 and offers DFW and Chicago.
BG918 03-01-2020, 03:25 PM https://www.poncacitynow.com/stillwater-regional-airport-sees-growth-in-passenger-traffic/
Hopefully, another destination, such as Chicago can be added in the near future and encourage more passengers. Manhattan, KS airport passenger count was 70,705 in 2018 and offers DFW and Chicago.
I would think either ORD on AA or DEN on United are possible future adds from SWO. United is going to be starting a large expansion from DEN once they get their new gates and routes like these could be part of that expansion.
gopokes88 03-01-2020, 06:18 PM Burns Hargis said he wants ORD next but the city of Stillwater has to get the terminal built first. Both the Dallas and ORD flights would leave really close together so 2 gates are needed.
BoulderSooner 03-02-2020, 08:33 AM Usually casinos will comp them to their frequent gamblers. Or comp the stay if you cover airfare.
yep the Beau Rivage Casino resort has a charter comp flight out of Okc 2-4 times a year
gopokes88 03-02-2020, 08:10 PM February will have good numbers, or at least should, because of the extra day.
catch22 03-05-2020, 07:44 AM Tomorrow night united will load in systemwide network cuts for the april schedule. 10% domestic, 20% international. Will be interesting to see what gets trimmed out of OKC.
runOKC 03-06-2020, 10:55 AM Catch - any United cuts for OKC?
catch22 03-06-2020, 12:00 PM Catch - any United cuts for OKC?
Schedule uploads tonight (usually every friday) around midnight central time
catch22 03-07-2020, 07:28 AM Catch - any United cuts for OKC?
On first glance it appears like OKC made it without any cuts. I didn't look too deep into it though. I also don't know UA's strategy for their 10% domestic cut. That won't be clear until I see what is happening in other markets. Their strategy may be to keep service in as many markets as possible but perform what is called "day of week reductions". For example, cutting an OKC-ORD frequency on tuesday and wednesday. Reducing a OKC-DEN on Saturday. Reducing a frequency to IAH on Sunday, etc.
To be clear that is just an example not what I have seen. That preserves the schedule as much as possible while trimming capacity. They may make broader cuts.
no1cub17 03-08-2020, 05:04 PM Looks like AA's OKC-PHL is down to 1x daily for the summer, pretty sure they'd planned for 2x daily prior to the recent developments.
Unrelated but I'm guessing the airlines aren't too worried about rushing the MAX into service at this point!
Edmond Hausfrau 03-10-2020, 04:04 PM Some really good prices on airline Tix out of OKC, and all the airlines doing no fee on changes if ticket booked before March 31.
Don't fly if you are sick, but if you are well then round trip into Vail/Aspen for under $250 is a bargain.
gopokes88 03-10-2020, 05:04 PM February is up. Decent growth. Probably the last month of growth for a few months.
SW off 5%
AA up 10%
https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/News/February2020Enplanement.pdf
jdizzle 03-10-2020, 06:47 PM AA is going to overtake SW soon, it seems!
catch22 03-10-2020, 08:30 PM February is up. Decent growth. Probably the last month of growth for a few months.
SW off 5%
AA up 10%
https://flyokc.com/sites/default/files/News/February2020Enplanement.pdf
If you account for the extra day February was down slightly compared to last year.
gopokes88 03-10-2020, 10:04 PM If you account for the extra day February was down slightly compared to last year.
We’ll take the Ws when we can get them. March will be a bloodbath at $30 oil and the virus
catch22 03-10-2020, 10:20 PM We’ll take the Ws when we can get them. March will be a bloodbath at $30 oil and the virus
Right. Just pointing out that it is an artificial number. March will be fine. We (UA) are holding on to the low 70% load factors right now systemwide which is amazing given the circumstances.
April bookings are down 70% systemwide domestic and greater than 100% international (Passengers are canceling itineraries). For comparison, United's future booking were down 40% following 9/11.
April will be the true bloodbath. 30% domestic load factors will be tough.
Edit: by fine i mean relative to april and may
catch22 03-10-2020, 10:26 PM Tomorrow's avg load factor.
OKC-DEN 82%
OKC-IAH 66%
OKC-IAD 71%
OKC-ORD 61%
OKC-SFO 53%
Not good but far from terrible for the moment.
gopokes88 03-11-2020, 07:45 AM Right. Just pointing out that it is an artificial number. March will be fine. We (UA) are holding on to the low 70% load factors right now systemwide which is amazing given the circumstances.
April bookings are down 70% systemwide domestic and greater than 100% international (Passengers are canceling itineraries). For comparison, United's future booking were down 40% following 9/11.
April will be the true bloodbath. 30% domestic load factors will be tough.
Edit: by fine i mean relative to april and may
In theory there’s still time to recover. If it turns out Wuhan Virus is seasonal like the flu or other colds we’ll see the spread really start to slow and panic subside.
I’m flying tomorrow, flights are getting so empty it’s pretty much safe to fly.
catch22 03-11-2020, 07:59 AM In theory there’s still time to recover. If it turns out Wuhan Virus is seasonal like the flu or other colds we’ll see the spread really start to slow and panic subside.
I’m flying tomorrow, flights are getting so empty it’s pretty much safe to fly.
That is a good point. Right now UA is planning on the worst case scenario which is 30% loads in April and May, and a 10-point increase every month until normal. For example 40% in June, 50% July, 60% August. Etc. That is the doomsday scenario and I don't think it will be that bad. But I am encouraged by their handling of this. Just crossing our fingers that we can avoid layoffs. It costs a lot of money to run an airline. Hundreds of millions per month in expenses. That's easy to manage when you have hundreds of millions in revenue. Cut off the revenue by 70% and fixed costs remain largely the same whether the airplanes are parked or flying. It's a real crunch.
gopokes88 03-11-2020, 10:14 AM That is a good point. Right now UA is planning on the worst case scenario which is 30% loads in April and May, and a 10-point increase every month until normal. For example 40% in June, 50% July, 60% August. Etc. That is the doomsday scenario and I don't think it will be that bad. But I am encouraged by their handling of this. Just crossing our fingers that we can avoid layoffs. It costs a lot of money to run an airline. Hundreds of millions per month in expenses. That's easy to manage when you have hundreds of millions in revenue. Cut off the revenue by 70% and fixed costs remain largely the same whether the airplanes are parked or flying. It's a real crunch.
Yeah most people don't understand when you're running a 10% net profit, doesn't take for that to go negative in a hurry.
Typically, smart management, doesn't make layoffs for temporary disruptions to business. The response for disruption isn't "let's have more disruption." Be calm, steady, and ride out the storm.
Layoffs are reserved for material changes to how the business must function and operate.
Most aren't blessed with smart management though.
BoulderSooner 03-11-2020, 10:45 AM i would guess that this massive dip in the price of oil would set the airlines up for massive profit down the road ??
amocore 03-11-2020, 01:08 PM Plenty of round trip direct to Phoenix for $ 160 on SW and AA right now.
BG918 03-12-2020, 12:09 PM I've got an international trip (to Africa) coming up at the end of the month. Still planning on going but worried United will cancel my flight(s). I am flying through Frankfurt on the way home so really interested in know what ends up happening with the "enhanced screening".
Bellaboo 03-12-2020, 12:24 PM I've got an international trip (to Africa) coming up at the end of the month. Still planning on going but worried United will cancel my flight(s). I am flying through Frankfurt on the way home so really interested in know what ends up happening with the "enhanced screening".
If you are flying through Frankfurt you might not be able to get back.... Go through England.
BG918 03-12-2020, 01:48 PM If you are flying through Frankfurt you might not be able to get back.... Go through England.
Considering rebooking for later in the year.
I’m afraid this pandemic will be similar to 9/11 for the airlines.
catch22 03-12-2020, 02:08 PM Considering rebooking for later in the year.
I’m afraid this pandemic will be similar to 9/11 for the airlines.
I'd rebook. I would be surprised if we are flying at all in 3 weeks.
BoulderSooner 03-12-2020, 02:14 PM I'd rebook. I would be surprised if we are flying at all in 3 weeks.
how long do you think that will last??
catch22 03-12-2020, 02:18 PM how long do you think that will last??
Everyday is exponentially more grim than the last. I have no idea. If the next few days are as bad (reaction wise) as the last I certainly see a situation where the entire country grinds to a halt including the airlines.
if China is any example, it could be a month? They are starting to get more flights going in domestic China now, so they seem to be through the worst of it but it took them shutting the entire country down through brute force for 70 days.
I think the economic dominoes are falling faster than the health dominoes in the US. The panic is more severe than the condition, and that's bad news for everyone.
GoThunder 03-12-2020, 02:29 PM We have a vacation to the west coast planned starting tomorrow. I’m not worried about getting out there, but I’m wondering what the chances are our flight home gets canceled.
catch22 03-12-2020, 02:46 PM We have a vacation to the west coast planned starting tomorrow. I’m not worried about getting out there, but I’m wondering what the chances are our flight home gets canceled.
I've thought about taking advantge of the empty planes and go to Hawaii but afraid of getting stuck out there if the hammer drops and cancels happen in mass. Right now we aren't doing any close in cancels except for those to comply with government restrictions. All cancels other than those are weeks to months out to reduce forward capacity.
However I think the unprecedented is fast approaching where demand falls off so sharply and the panic spreads to the cities that operate the airports where they essentially close the terminal buildings. This, or the administration, cancels all travel. I see the former happening more than the latter. All it will take is 1 airport to do it, and just as we are seeing with other activites once one is suspended all will follow suit in quick order. How quick will DEN or DFW follow if LAX for example just turns off the lights and locks the doors as a precaution to the greater LA area? I bet within 24 hours of that every hub will be closed.
I really really hope it doesn't go that way but all it will take is 1 big airport to start it. This reaction is unpredictable and unprecedented
BG918 03-12-2020, 03:04 PM I really really hope it doesn't go that way but all it will take is 1 big airport to start it. This reaction is unpredictable and unprecedented
I'm worried that may happen as well. The news seemingly gets worse every day. IF that does happen and the country essentially grounds to a halt there will be severe economic repercussions. The oil & gas recession Oklahoma is experiencing will look like small potatoes to what will happen to the entire country (and world).
catch22 03-12-2020, 03:12 PM I'm worried that may happen as well. The news seemingly gets worse every day. IF that does happen and the country essentially grounds to a halt there will be severe economic repercussions. The oil & gas recession Oklahoma is experiencing will look like small potatoes to what will happen to the entire country (and world).
Just look at my posts a few days ago in this thread. That is how fast this is snowballing out of control. 2 days ago I thought this would blow over. Last night I have come to the conclusion that I will actually be surprised if I am at work in 3 weeks. This is absolutely nuts. I don't get it but I am here for the ride just like everybody else.
CloudDeckMedia 03-12-2020, 04:01 PM We have (had?) domestic travel planned for this spring...
Nashville conference cancelled in March.
Louisville marathon will likely cancel in April.
Nashville graduation will likely cancel in May.
Seattle marathon will likely cancel in June.
Europe - we were just starting to talk about a summer trip, but...
Every trip involved airline, car rental, hotel, local spending. All cancelled.
catch22 03-12-2020, 06:05 PM https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-considers-travel-restrictions-to-california-and-washington-in-attempt-to-stop-coronavirus-spread-204627351.html
Trump considers travel ban to CA and WA. This is no bueno!
catch22 03-12-2020, 10:48 PM Loads continue to drop off.
Today's UA systemwide load factor is 52%. Yesterday was 54%
A week ago our systemwide load factor was 69%.
DEN leads the system at 65%, IAD and SFO are bringing up the tail end at 44% and 46% respectively.
catch22 03-12-2020, 10:55 PM OKC's loads are actually surprisingly well. Honestly some of the highest in the system tomorrow based on some spot checking.
I do not want to turn this political, but I wonder if there is a correlation between cities that are more conservative having higher load factors (I.e. believing this is not serious enough to cancel plans) while more liberal cities have lower load factors as people are listening more to what is being told to them.
I say that as a liberal myself, who doesn't really have much concern for the virus** itself but think the panic is certainly more worrying.
** I am taking it seriously by limiting exposure and practicing good hygiene. But I am not planning for the end of the world. I would step foot on an airplane to europe tomorrow if I knew I could get back. Since the cat is out of the bag globally, my risk of exposure or acquisition is pretty much the same no matter where I am. That's the way I look at it.
mugofbeer 03-12-2020, 11:37 PM OKC's loads are actually surprisingly well. Honestly some of the highest in the system tomorrow based on some spot checking.
I do not want to turn this political, but I wonder if there is a correlation between cities that are more conservative having higher load factors (I.e. believing this is not serious enough to cancel plans) while more liberal cities have lower load factors as people are listening more to what is being told to them.
I say that as a liberal myself, who doesn't really have much concern for the virus** itself but think the panic is certainly more worrying.
** I am taking it seriously by limiting exposure and practicing good hygiene. But I am not planning for the end of the world. I would step foot on an airplane to europe tomorrow if I knew I could get back. Since the cat is out of the bag globally, my risk of exposure or acquisition is pretty much the same no matter where I am. That's the way I look at it.
Denver's conservative? Not in 15 years!
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