Going to combine these two winter months as the weather is pretty boring right now.

Pretty much copycat days for the next week with highs in the low 50s, and lows at night in the low 30s.

Next action as of now looks to be around mid-January.

Wildfire conditions will gradually increase if we continue to head through this winter with consistently dry weather.

Saw on the news looks like snow possible on Saturday? I didnt catch it live but saw some graphic.

Sure does look like it's going to be very windy even by Oklahoma standards starting on Wednesday Morning.

Oklahoma City meteorologist Aaron Tuttle sees big Arctic air mass outbreak coming next week, bringing lows to single digits in Oklahoma: https://aarontuttleweather.com/2020/01/06/wild-weather-week-ahead/?fbclid=IwAR2Al8JTqyDg67WjhAPmevL3qAWiVmYbQMau0-luFiXZXFzmpy9oAN8EtkE

The CPC seems to think we're more likely to stay just on the warm side, but it definitely looks like a sharp airmass gradient so it'll probably be a close call.

Would not want to be living in Montana over the next couple of weeks.

Strong storm system will come across the central part of the country Thursday through Saturday. Right now it looks like impacts to OK will be strong south winds ahead of the storm, then strong north winds behind it (this weekend). Most precipitation looks to be focused to the east.

This first storm will knock temperatures down to more winter-like around here, and there is some trailing storm systems that will come through. We may have our first shot at actual winter precipitation next week sometime.

Latest model data this afternoon is favoring a further south storm track for this upcoming storm. This would increase likelihood of wrap-around snow across the main body of OK late Friday night. This is the first iteration of the more reliable models suggesting this, so this could be an outlier until we start seeing a trend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020010818/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_46.png

^ It could be a wild weekend in Oklahoma. Severe weather on Friday followed by snow on Saturday.

NAM model has gone back to a northern track, minimal snow for OK. Other models are saying snow.


GEM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020010912/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_48.png


GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_9.png


NAM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020010912/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_47.png


WRF ARW
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2020010912/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

SPC has nudged severe storm risk slightly west to encompass OKC area for late morning into afternoon, Friday.

The exact storm track is going to determine not only the snow potential, but also storm potential. Right now it appears storms will develop by lunchtime somewhere across C OK, this could also be just E/NE of OKC and leave OKC in the dry slot of the low. If the storm track is further south and west, it would favor storm development just SW or directly over C OK. Tornado and hail probability will exist with earliest development of storms across C OK, and then decrease further east as storms are expected to form into a line and push into AR.

Then C OK will be in a dry slot for the remainder of Friday with strong winds flooding in cold air from the NW.

Snow forecast is entirely dependent on the low's track. Snowfall would occur late Friday into early Sat morning. Further south track means better shot for accumulating snow. As of now, taking a conglomerate of the models, it looks like the low's track will be somewhere along the Red River in SW OK, then shooting up to the NE just along I-44. this would favor the NW sides of I-44 corridor for best shot to see snow (if any). As with most OK snow forecasts, there is major uncertainty involved.

Snowfall amounts of various models as of Thursday afternoon:

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010918/gfs_asnow_scus_10.png

GEM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2020010918/rgem_asnow_scus_54.png

NAM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2020010918/namconus_asnow_scus_19.png

CAN
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020010912/gem_asnow_scus_10.png

The developing weather situation has become more definite to the NWS, so a couple of storm watches have been issued starting Friday. One is for northern Oklahoma with a winter storm watch, which includes Enid, Bartlesville and Stillwater. Total snow accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Higher snow totals possible near the Kansas border.

The other one for eastern and southeastern Oklahoma with a flash flood watch, which includes Tulsa. NWS says residents of that area should expect widespread, heavy rainfall in the 2 to 4 inch range, with locally heavier amounts possible. The storms will “train” north to south, meteorologists say, meaning they'll continue to develop and pour rain repeatedly over the same areas. Oklahoma City metro, so far, is not affected by either watch:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

We should start to see more storms fire up over the next few hours across W to C to SE OK. There is already a pair of severe storms ongoing in W OK. Tornado potential does exist with these, especially early. Then there will be spin-up potential along a large line of storms across extreme E/SE OK.

Snow should develop on the wrap-around, this HRRR map of snowfall is probably a good indicator of realistic amounts. There could be a narrow band or two of heavy snow that results in higher accumulation. Given warm ground temperatures, minimal travel impact is expected - save for maybe extreme N/NE OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020011012/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_4.png





https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020011012/hrrr_asnow_scus_32.png

Tornado watch is out for basically I-35 and points east. Some towers trying to get going to the SW right now. We will see if they can mature into storms by the time the boundary passes OKC.

Just some general rain from decaying storms coming into the metro. The cold front has undercut everything, so drizzle will be the name of the game heading into tonight. Still a chance at some snow showers late with wrap-around, but again - no impacts really expected.

Update to the snow map posted from this morning.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020011018/hrrr_asnow_scus_26.png

The Oklahoma weather hype rating machine strikes again!!! First it was severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes and that didn't pan out. And then snowfall that looks like it will not pan out? Color me shocked that all we get out of this is a little bit of cold rain before we go back to 50s and sunny. Isn't Oklahoma supposed to be the forefront of meteorology?

The Oklahoma weather hype rating machine strikes again!!! First it was severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes and that didn't pan out. And then snowfall that looks like it will not pan out? Color me shocked that all we get out of this is a little bit of cold rain before we go back to 50s and sunny. Isn't Oklahoma supposed to be the forefront of meteorology?

Color me shocked that you're already on here complaining. That's how weather works sometimes. You're always on here gassing when we don't have a foot-deep blizzard or an EF-5 wiping out someone's neighborhood. Just be glad you had some kind of warning in case there was something worse.

The weather we had over Xmas was perfect. However it seem that anytime there is even a *chance* of something major happening our weather guys hype it all up for ratings. Even if there is a chance of something big happening, I would rather the mets underplay it than overplay it. Overplaying is just hype and it keeps people glued to the weather when they don't need to be or to go out and clean out the grocery store when they don't need to.

The weather we had over Xmas was perfect. However it seem that anytime there is even a *chance* of something major happening our weather guys hype it all up for ratings. Even if there is a chance of something big happening, I would rather the mets underplay it than overplay it. Overplaying is just hype and it keeps people glued to the weather when they don't need to be or to go out and clean out the grocery store when they don't need to.

Really. I love the expression on this TV weatherman's face. (But that finger, oh my.) Emily at the same station wisely chose not to disclose what models were showing. The station has reduced snow amounts expected for the Stillwater and Pawnee areas to 1 to 3".

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snowjan12-2020.jpg

The Oklahoma weather hype rating machine strikes again!!! First it was severe weather with the possibility of tornadoes and that didn't pan out. And then snowfall that looks like it will not pan out? Color me shocked that all we get out of this is a little bit of cold rain before we go back to 50s and sunny. Isn't Oklahoma supposed to be the forefront of meteorology?

You're the worst. Go back to 4chan. Sorry you can't take in data and process it like the rest of us can. Thousands of variables reusult in outputs that change frequently. You must have missed the severe storms that hit west and tornadoes east of us. Stop watching the news forecast. No-one is forcing you to watch the local channels. NWS Norman puts out the perfect amount of information for you. You are a public nuisance here for those of us who actually care about the weather here.

You're the worst. Go back to 4chan. Sorry you can't take in data and process it like the rest of us can. Thousands of variables reusult in outputs that change frequently. You must have missed the severe storms that hit west and tornadoes east of us. Stop watching the news forecast. No-one is forcing you to watch the local channels. NWS Norman puts out the perfect amount of information for you. You are a public nuisance here for those of us who actually care about the weather here.

I am a loser who lives in my mom's basement with nothing better to do.

How is Ian wrong though? Meteorology in Oklahoma is a joke now. They live from hyping up sh!t that doesn’t happen: maybe it’ll snow tonight. We’ll see. Weather stations in OKC are worse than LA.

How is Ian wrong though? Meteorology in Oklahoma is a joke now. They live from hyping up sh!t that doesn’t happen: maybe it’ll snow tonight. We’ll see. Weather stations in OKC are worse than LA.

TV meteorology maybe. Skipping the TV, I never felt mislead about what might have happened today or this weekend.

TV meteorology maybe. Skipping the TV, I never felt mislead about what might have happened today or this weekend.

This. TV is TV, not science. Long past are the days of local news being relevant or factual. Doesn't mean every time the wind blows we need to get on this board on piss and moan about it. Start a new thread for that. I've held back for a long time, just tired of having to see this stuff on this thread. The complaining is not relevant to the topic of the ACTUAL weather that happening.

TV meteorology maybe. Skipping the TV, I never felt mislead about what might have happened today or this weekend.

I find this thread by posters here is much more reasonable than TV.

This. TV is TV, not science. Long past are the days of local news being relevant or factual. Doesn't mean every time the wind blows we need to get on this board on piss and moan about it. Start a new thread for that. I've held back for a long time, just tired of having to see this stuff on this thread. The complaining is not relevant to the topic of the ACTUAL weather that happening.
I don’t usually check this thread unless I’m in town. Just providing my 2 cents.

How is Ian wrong though? Meteorology in Oklahoma is a joke now. They live from hyping up sh!t that doesn’t happen: maybe it’ll snow tonight. We’ll see. Weather stations in OKC are worse than LA.

I think it's a matter of the TV folks either aren't meteorologists and are just "weatherpeople" or aren't good enough to present anything off the models. They don't stick their necks out to interpret the real weather but promote - unfortunately hyping is part of promoting.

Denver TV stations all have seasoned, long-time meteorologists who know the local nuances. Even here, though, they find it very hard to accurately present snowfall. It cam vary so much if you happen to get under a heavier spot or not.

I don’t really follow the local weather people, but from what I have seen on social media and here, some got caught up in weather model wishcasting.

Like another poster in this thread said, just follow the official NWS information. They update constantly and will have no fluff.

It snowed around an inch in Stillwater Saturday morning as pictured. Things started out before dawn as a glaze of ice followed by a layer of snow made easier to drive on. It later turned to slush, which as of shortly after noon had mostly evaporated off. It snowed more in counties to the north.

As was done last year the head of Stillwater Emergency Management, Ron Hill, made an hour and a half plus live Facebook video tour of the the major streets of stillwater starting out when the icing of Highway 177 south of town began. A couple of interesting points: 24:00- A stop at Stillwater Regional Airport to see the new spray equipment to deice the runway. The flight to Dallas-Ft. Worth was made good to go. 1:09 - recap and drive through Hall of Fame Ave. on OSU's north side.

https://www.facebook.com/StwSema/videos/579017102830615/

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/snow1-11-2020.jpg

At least the TV weather people were right in that the heaviest rain would be in southeast Oklahoma.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainamountsjan2020.png

How is Ian wrong though? Meteorology in Oklahoma is a joke now. They live from hyping up sh!t that doesn’t happen: maybe it’ll snow tonight. We’ll see. Weather stations in OKC are worse than LA.

With respect, if you live in LA, how would you even begin to know if OKC meteology (or do you mean TV weather casters) is a joke or not? If you watch this thread, the same poster comes this thread to lambast to forcast unless it's hit spot-on. This has gone on for at least a year. He doesn't seem to post any other time and only complains. People just get tired with him for his negativity.

With respect, if you live in LA, how would you even begin to know if OKC meteology (or do you mean TV weather casters) is a joke or not? If you watch this thread, the same poster comes this thread to lambast to forcast unless it's hit spot-on. This has gone on for at least a year. He doesn't seem to post any other time and only complains. People just get tired with him for his negativity.
Fair point but remember I grew up in Oklahoma and im here watching weather so I’m speaking from my personal experience. Anyways I made my point and don’t want to derail this thread any further. This is just something that annoys me. The weather casters just seem to hype stuff up for views and ratings.

I am not familiar with Ian as a rarely check this thread unless I’m here looking for weather information.

Can we actually just talk weather on this page and go to the media page to talk smack on TV meteorologists?

It was pretty desperate at my house Saturday.... I had to resort to scribbling messages on my back porch to survive.

.15754

Return to milder weather this week. Chance of some light rain Thursday into Friday.

Can we actually just talk weather on this page and go to the media page to talk smack on TV meteorologists?

Agreed. Not sure why the "frequent" visitors of this thread care so much. I'm sure the TV meteorologist will hit a low point then there will be another major tornado and we will repeat this cycle all over again. Having storm chasers and helicopters give you a huge advantage for reporting events that actually verify.

Yes, let's please stick to discussing the weather.

There are other thread for media personalities.

Fair point but remember I grew up in Oklahoma and im here watching weather so I’m speaking from my personal experience. Anyways I made my point and don’t want to derail this thread any further. This is just something that annoys me. The weather casters just seem to hype stuff up for views and ratings.

I am not familiar with Ian as a rarely check this thread unless I’m here looking for weather information.

You are not wrong. But weather in these parts are impossible to predict and it's been that way forever. But these News stations will def. do their fair share of hyping.

I am ready for a decent snow. Doesn't seem like we have had one since about 2009.

This is my 4th winter since moving back and we haven't had more than a dusting that entire time.

Seems like before I left in 1989, we had at least 2 good snowfalls every season.


I don't miss the snow, but the pattern has certainly changed.

I had wondered about that. I rather enjoy blizzards or inclement weather in general so I’m out of the norm when it comes to that. I am surprised there hasn’t been a significant snow event like 2009 for over 10 years now.

I have family in Wisconsin and they said they don't get the snowfall that they used to.

They still get it of course, but their pattern has changed as well.

Has it been warmer up there or just not as much snow?

Has it been warmer up there or just not as much snow?

Both.

Both.
It seems have been a bit cooler in the winter in LA but warmer in the summer. The snowpack in sierras has been historic the past years but I wonder how long that will last.

I could be crazy but it seems like warmer months are lasting later in the year and March, April, may, have been cooler almost like the seasons are shifting.

2009 Christmas Eve blizzard was an insanely rare scenario for the southern plains. The low was a tightly closed-circulation. Here is an image of the radar as the storm began to come across OK. Notice the stream of rain and moisture coming up from the south feeding directly into the main circulation. This almost never happens because dry air usually slots itself between the rain shield to the east, and the winter precipitation is forced to come from the low's deformation zone on the wrap-around side.

The only way I ever see a storm like this occurring again is if it takes a very similar path from southern NM into SW TX - and then the low remains closed off. Both two scenarios that are very unlikely in this part of the nation.

https://www.weather.gov/images/lub/events/2009/20091223_snow/southplains_loop_20091224_1018Z.gif

Wow that is very interesting. Thank you posting that.

OKC snow 2010 to 2018, starting with 18 and working backwards:

1.3
1.9
1.0
8.2 (15)
12.1 (14)
10.4
3.2
19.6
9.3 (10)

OKC snow 2010 to 2018, starting with 18 and working backwards:

1.3
1.9
1.0
8.2 (15)
12.1 (14)
10.4
3.2
19.6
9.3 (10)

Looks like we might be do for a decent snow storm. I was thinking the 09 blizzard was like 16-18 inches and a record amount or close to it..

Looks like we might be do for a decent snow storm. I was thinking the 09 blizzard was like 16-18 inches and a record amount or close to it..

I think it was a record for 1 event or for that day?

The above data is yearly totals too

Really have to measure seasonal snowfall from July through June to get the best sense of what a particular winter was actually like.

Here's the snowfall at Will Rogers for the last 10 winters:

2009-10: 23.2"
2010-11: 19.6"
2011-12: 1.8"
2012-13: 7.7"
2013-14: 10.2"
2014-15: 13.6"
2015-16: 1.2"
2016-17: 2.1"
2017-18: 0.4"
2018-19: 5.8"

For context, the average snowfall in OKC is 7.6" per winter.

Anecdotally speaking...I have lived in Michigan for most of my life, but I was in Norman for the February 1st, 2011 blizzard and that is the most impressive winter storm I have ever experienced. It's very rare, but the OKC area can certainly get some notable snow events.

Question asked to the U. S. National Weather Service, Norman OK on Facebook:

Very disappointed that OKC didn't get any [snow] despite the hype. I know you all say it's difficult to track a weather system, but how do meteorologists do it up in the Northeast United States 5 days out???? I know because I lived there.

ANSWER: It's much different trying to forecast winter weather in Oklahoma versus other parts of the country, partly because of the latitude, terrain, and proximity of the Gulf of Mexico. I'm one of the forecasters here, and came here from northeast Michigan many years ago. My first winter weather forecast here was a disaster. I still find it very difficult to deal with the mixture of weather types that occur here, instead of "just snow" farther north.

Cold front that has been draped across NW OK is now nudging into C OK. This will continue to slowly teeter back and forth with an eventual south movement.

Storm approaching from the west Thursday evening into Friday will develop rain across the state, but temperatures for the majority of OK will be above 32F. So just a very cold rain for C OK, and some freezing rain across far NW OK, until eventual warm-air overrides the area. Thursday will be rainy and upper 30s for C OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020011512/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_42.png

This is my 4th winter since moving back and we haven't had more than a dusting that entire time.

Seems like before I left in 1989, we had at least 2 good snowfalls every season.


I don't miss the snow, but the pattern has certainly changed.
We had one 3 to 4 inch snow last winter. I was at work at 4AM shoveling sidewalks just north of WRWA.

Ive got pictures of playing in the snow on January 3rd. Looks like it snowed several inches.

Ive got pictures of playing in the snow on January 3rd. Looks like it snowed several inches.

I don't even remember anything close to that in NW OKC.

I am wondering if this upcoming rain turns to ice or snow because it def. feels cold enough to get white stuff.

Here in C OK, temperatures are rising above freezing now and will continue heading into the evening. Far NW OK is really the only area expected to be at or below 32F for the majority of the precipitation.

This is a fantastic winter soaking for the central part of the state.

This is a fantastic winter soaking for the central part of the state.

Yep! Almost 2 inches at my house, since 6pm.

Right on. My house got 1.22". The midsection of Oklahoma, centered along the I-44 corridor, sure did get generous amounts of cold rain on Jan. 16 and 17. All three metros got over an inch. More rain is in the forecast later this month.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainjan17-2020.png

There will be a chance for quick moving rain turning to potentially heavy snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. If it does snow, it will be brief and not stick around too long as temperatures will be hovering right around freezing at the time. Best shots will be across N and NE OK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020012012/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_42.png